Where, oh where, is
@usctrojancpa these days? He hasn't shown his face in these parts lately.
The pandemic peak for Irvine was in April 2022 and the median at that time was $1.43M. Fast forward to today, and the August 2025 median for Irvine is $1.56M (and dropping).
View attachment 10628
Doing the math, the
nominal price increase for Irvine has been 9% over that time. Unfortunately, CPI inflation has been 12% over the same time. (Many people believe CPI
understates inflation because of how it calculates things like housing and electronics.)
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What this means is Irvine
has not exceeded the rate of inflation over the past 2+ years. In fact, Irvine buyers have lost 3% in real terms since
@usctrojancpa bought his place. So far, his prediction that Irvine would beat inflation and thus, be a good long term investment, has not proven true.
Since the title of this thread is "Buying as Investment", how would Irvine have compared to another mainstream investment? Well, the S&P 500 gained 63% from April 2022 to August 2025.
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Since the cost of renting in Irvine is about half the cost of owning, clearly the best investment would have been to
rent and place all the money saved (down payment + monthly housing cost savings) into the stock market these past 2+ years.
This is what I was trying to convince
@CalBears96 and
@usctrojancpa of when I told them starting in late 2021 that buying would be a major mistake.
They've both come out ahead nominally, but Irvine home prices are anemic at best, and that monthly housing alligator is eating up their wealth little by little. Better timing would have led to fantastic stock market gains, followed by a stronger entry point in the housing market.