Bloodbath in Coto de Caza
- Thread starter muffdaddy_IHB
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I did not say stalemate in Los Ranchos Estates, nor am I using the two spec homes you mentioned. I said stalement is in the entire $1.75mil and up price range... this includes places like The Woods, Forest, etc as well as Atherton and Weatherly. Actually, in my analysis I'm ignoring above $4mil, because those become the high price estates where, honestly, you expect them to take a long time to sell... I eliminated those because I don't want those outliers skewing my data.
I wouldn't go as far as Awgee and say that places which have already tanked 30-40% will tank significantly further... honestly I don't know.
It would not be unreasonable to say prices in the upper end of the market will fall 30%. Right now it would be hard to argue they have fallen at all, if anything most asking prices are ABOVE bubble era comps. You have a negative feedback loop where people are listing relative to other listing prices, rather that listing relative to closed sales. The result is nothing is moving.
Delroy
You passed two of the exam s ! Congrats!
They still appear to have taken a bit of a beating on the short sale.
Ouch for Gary! Not only did he lose about $200k on that property, but the condo he owes $382k on Verdugo in Mission Viejo... the condo next door just closed last month for $290k. Wow! Down $300k in 2 months, now that has got to hurt. I remember when the short sale article got posted on Lansner's blog, and someone told me GW was rich... LOL... looks more like he is broke and getting deeper underwater. Couldn't happen to better cheerleader if you ask me. Gary is going down... it's in the bag!
Damn Crystal Ball. Time to try out my Magic 8 Ball instead.
Sounds like we need to revive this thread.
12 Atherton listed today at $1,999,000. The 2 other listings of the same model are priced at $2,750,000 and $2,999,000. $1,999,000 is 2002/2003 pricing in a tract which has yet to adjust down.
I'll have an analysis up at CotoHousing Blog at 1pm this afternoon.
Delroy
Nightline just did a story on Your Dream Home. One of the homes they toured was Larry Igarashi's Coto home.
http://abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=8778190
Lee Ann Canaday was also featured as well. The homes were big and ostentatious. the General's home was in the clip for 2 seconds.
You’re right. The homes were big and ostentatious. The clip on the General's house with its 3200sf master bedroom, casino in the basement and 4000sf 10 car garage was interesting to see.
Zulu_IHB
New member
I can't help but wonder what your motivation is for continuing with the doom and gloom. Bloodbath? Prices fell 30-40% in the first year and a half to two years after the market started tanking. Maybe 50% on some homes. Just because some sellers are late to the party and are just now finding out their homes are worth about half of what they thought doesn't mean that home prices are falling at the same rate as before. Do prices have further to fall? Maybe. But another 30-50%? I don't think so.
Re: Stalemate in the Los Ranchos Estates. Not surprising because most are old and all of them are overpriced. There is, however, one spec home being built in the Los Ranchos Estates. It's large at 7000 sf but not overly so, on 2 acres, great location, great floor plan and is priced at least a couple of million less than the aging homes which are not selling. It looks like the builder gets it. The only other new homes in Coto are the 9,500 sf monster on Palma Valley and the 10,000 sf tract home right on Coto drive - awful homes and no surprise they haven't sold. They wouldn't even sell in a good market, so you can't use those homes to judge the overall market.
As far as Shady goes, other than what is under construction the spec building has all but stopped. The supply of new homes is dwindling, showing that market forces are taking effect. Home prices for the customs that were in the $6's are now in the low-to-high $3 million range and the reason that not many homes are selling is because most sellers don't believe that's where prices really are.
Re: Stalemate in the Los Ranchos Estates. Not surprising because most are old and all of them are overpriced. There is, however, one spec home being built in the Los Ranchos Estates. It's large at 7000 sf but not overly so, on 2 acres, great location, great floor plan and is priced at least a couple of million less than the aging homes which are not selling. It looks like the builder gets it. The only other new homes in Coto are the 9,500 sf monster on Palma Valley and the 10,000 sf tract home right on Coto drive - awful homes and no surprise they haven't sold. They wouldn't even sell in a good market, so you can't use those homes to judge the overall market.
As far as Shady goes, other than what is under construction the spec building has all but stopped. The supply of new homes is dwindling, showing that market forces are taking effect. Home prices for the customs that were in the $6's are now in the low-to-high $3 million range and the reason that not many homes are selling is because most sellers don't believe that's where prices really are.
awgee_IHB
New member
My motivation is reality and the desire to profit from it.
I do not see the glass as half full. (optimism)
I do not see the glass as half empty. (doom and gloom)
I could care less about the glass.
I desire to know how many ounces of ____ are in the glass and how much ____ sells for per ounce.
I do not see the glass as half full. (optimism)
I do not see the glass as half empty. (doom and gloom)
I could care less about the glass.
I desire to know how many ounces of ____ are in the glass and how much ____ sells for per ounce.
cletus_IHB
New member
Zulu said:
I did not say stalemate in Los Ranchos Estates, nor am I using the two spec homes you mentioned. I said stalement is in the entire $1.75mil and up price range... this includes places like The Woods, Forest, etc as well as Atherton and Weatherly. Actually, in my analysis I'm ignoring above $4mil, because those become the high price estates where, honestly, you expect them to take a long time to sell... I eliminated those because I don't want those outliers skewing my data.
I wouldn't go as far as Awgee and say that places which have already tanked 30-40% will tank significantly further... honestly I don't know.
It would not be unreasonable to say prices in the upper end of the market will fall 30%. Right now it would be hard to argue they have fallen at all, if anything most asking prices are ABOVE bubble era comps. You have a negative feedback loop where people are listing relative to other listing prices, rather that listing relative to closed sales. The result is nothing is moving.
Delroy
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
The property closed escrow on 8/26/09 for a price of $572,000 or $237/sf. The buyer used an FHA Loan of $561,639 from Bank of America to purchase the property.awgee said:
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
Nope WAMU...errr...JP Morgan was lucky enough to have gotten bailed out by the government again...errr...an FHA loan with less than 2% down.awgee said:
Sunshine_IHB
New member
USCTrojanCPA said:
You passed two of the exam s ! Congrats!
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
Not yet, 2 down and 2 to go but I figured I'd change the name to give me that extra motivation to finish things out by Nov.Sunshine said:
cletus_IHB
New member
USCTrojanCPA said:
They still appear to have taken a bit of a beating on the short sale.
graphrix_IHB
New member
awgee said:
Ouch for Gary! Not only did he lose about $200k on that property, but the condo he owes $382k on Verdugo in Mission Viejo... the condo next door just closed last month for $290k. Wow! Down $300k in 2 months, now that has got to hurt. I remember when the short sale article got posted on Lansner's blog, and someone told me GW was rich... LOL... looks more like he is broke and getting deeper underwater. Couldn't happen to better cheerleader if you ask me. Gary is going down... it's in the bag!
bltserv_IHB
New member
Damn Crystal Ball. Time to try out my Magic 8 Ball instead.
cletus_IHB
New member
Zulu said:
Sounds like we need to revive this thread.
12 Atherton listed today at $1,999,000. The 2 other listings of the same model are priced at $2,750,000 and $2,999,000. $1,999,000 is 2002/2003 pricing in a tract which has yet to adjust down.
I'll have an analysis up at CotoHousing Blog at 1pm this afternoon.
Delroy
Strom_IHB
New member
Article from LA Times discussing spec developers, including one in Coto:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-spec-mansions4-2009oct04,0,1630470.story
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-spec-mansions4-2009oct04,0,1630470.story
Cameray_IHB
New member
Strom said:
Nightline just did a story on Your Dream Home. One of the homes they toured was Larry Igarashi's Coto home.
http://abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=8778190
bkshopr_IHB
New member
Cameray said:
Lee Ann Canaday was also featured as well. The homes were big and ostentatious. the General's home was in the clip for 2 seconds.
Cameray_IHB
New member
bkshopr said:
You’re right. The homes were big and ostentatious. The clip on the General's house with its 3200sf master bedroom, casino in the basement and 4000sf 10 car garage was interesting to see.