Bloodbath in Coto de Caza

[quote author="awgee" date=1236765847][quote author="freedomCM" date=1236758813]technically, i can't. i just use the "backup offers accepted" as a proxy.</blockquote>


Where do you see, "backup offers accepted"? In Redfin?</blockquote>


It states "Backup Offers Accepted in <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/31991-Via-Gallo-92679/home/5055534">Redfin</a>."
 
[quote author="CalGal" date=1236837688][quote author="awgee" date=1236765847][quote author="freedomCM" date=1236758813]technically, i can't. i just use the "backup offers accepted" as a proxy.</blockquote>


Where do you see, "backup offers accepted"? In Redfin?</blockquote>


It states "Backup Offers Accepted in <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/31991-Via-Gallo-92679/home/5055534">Redfin</a>."</blockquote>


Aha! Where it says "Status". Thanks. I was wrong in my prediction of how long it would take this property to sell at this price.
 
It looks like even the short sale trolling is going without bids, and the "listing" prices are being lowered to try to get any bid.

<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/6-Mackenzie-Ln-92679/home/5020955">6 Mackenzie</a> sold for $1,775,000 in July of 2005 according to Redfin. It was listed a couple of months ago, Jan 21,2009 for a price of $1,549,000, acknowledging that prices have lowered from 2005, but the discount of 13% does not appear to have sparked a bidding war.



The price was subsequently lowered to $1,395,000 on Jan. 28 and $1,349,000 a day later and again lowered on Jan. 29 to $1,199,000. And then on Feb. 11, 6 Mackenzie was delisted.



On Feb. 13, two days later, 6 Mackenzie was again listed for sale, this time with a listing price of $1,585,000. Maybe prices in Coto went wild in January prompting a 32% INCREASE in the listing price?







Or maybe not?







On Feb 28, two weeks after the relisting, the price was lowered to $1,199,000. OMG. I am getting dizzy. This must be some brilliant marketing strategy being taught at Century 21 for challenging markets. That is what this is you know, a challenging market, not a complete disaster.





And then today, less than two weeks later, the listing price has been lowered to $999,000 or $232 per sq ft. I guess that "pent up demand" will be furiously filling in the purchase contracts now.





Acoording to this post, <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/346/P500/#41074">8 Mackenzie</a> sold at foreclosure for $891,000.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1226457303][quote author="awgee" date=1225665054]Calgal,



Check it out: The Greens for $257 per square foot! Wow!



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/30-Oakbrook-92679/home/5059897"> Oakbrook</a></blockquote>
A 10,000 sqft lot, nice. But the house is probably worth less than $700k.</blockquote>


Lowered $49,000 to $850,000 or $243 per sq ft. Redfin has it listed as a short sale, but this does not appear to be a trolling price.







And this appears to be a 2000/2001 price by interpolating between the 1993 and 2003 selling prices:

Aug 29, 2003 Sold $950,000 4.9%/yr Public Records

Dec 30, 1993 Sold $600,000
 
Calling caliguy2699,

Calling caliguy2699.







There appears to be a notice of default issued on a property on Via Colinas owned by last name, Kikuchi.

Can you tell what the address is?

My guess is 30852 Via Colinas, but that is just a guess.





Or, does anybody have access to Orange County Recorders Office document number 2009-00067650 ?



Thanks in advance.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1236980429]Calling caliguy2699,

Calling caliguy2699.







There appears to be a notice of default issued on a property on Via Colinas owned by last name, Kikuchi.

Can you tell what the address is?

My guess is 30852 Via Colinas, but that is just a guess.





Or, does anybody have access to Orange County Recorders Office document number 2009-00067650 ?



Thanks in advance.</blockquote>


REAL PROPERTY FORECLOSURE RECORD



Filings Collected Through: 02-24-2009

County Last Updated: 03-12-2009

Frequency of Update: WEEKLY

Current Date: 03/13/2009

Source: COUNTY RECORDER, ORANGE, CA





DOCUMENT INFORMATION



Document Type: NOTICE OF DEFAULT



Recording Date: 02/13/2009



Document Number: 67650





DEFENDANT/BORROWER/OWNER INFORMATION



Name(s): K*****I





Property Address: 30852 VIA COLINAS

TRABUCO CANYON, CA 92679-4013



Mailing Address: 30852 VIA COLINAS

COTO DE CAZA, CA 92679-4013





NOTICE INFORMATION



Date of Default: 02/13/2009



Amount of Default: $53,725.28



Lender: BANK OF AMERICA NA 200

EL CAJON, CA 92020-4007



Lender Phone: 619-590-9200



Trustee: CAL-WESTERN RECONVEYANCE CORP

525 E MAIN ST

EL CAJON, CA 92020-4007



Trustee Phone: 619-590-9200



Trustee Sale Number: 1198427





PROPERTY & IMPROVEMENT INFORMATION



County: ORANGE



Assessor's Parcel Number: 789-041-07



Property Type: SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCE / TOWNHOUSE



Land Use: SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCE



Number of Bedrooms: 5



Number of Bathrooms: 1.00



Lot Size: 67962



Year Built: 1992



Assessed Land Value: $1,381,293.00



Assessed Improvement Value: $709,707.00



Lot Number: 37



Map Book/Page: 564/9



Abstracted Legal Description: N TR 11510 LOT 37





LAST FULL SALE INFORMATION



Last Full Sale Date: 06/17/1992





ORIGINAL LOAN INFORMATION



Original Loan Recording Date: 04/24/2007



Original Loan Amount: $1,944,000.00



Original Document Number: 264769
 
notherethere - Thank you.



<a href="http://www.flaney.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/30852-Via-Colinas-Coto-De-Caza/P616563/">30852 Via Colinas</a> was listed for sale for more than a year. It is a nice home, but with kind of a strange layout from what seems to be an add on. It looks like the home debtors could not get an offer for more than what they owe. Can you imagine the payment on $1,944,000? My estimate is $12,300 just for P&I alone. The assessed value is $2,091,000 for a monthly property tax payment of $2178 and HOA of $216 per month. The property taxes alone look like a whole house payment to me. And only the interest from the first $1,000,000 of mortgage is allowed as mortgage interest deduction. Ouch!
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1236995651]Wow! It really is a bloodbath in Coto...



http://i39.tinypic.com/1i29ap.jpg</blockquote>


In the lower section of the northwest quadrant of the wonderful map you provided, there is a blue circle with an "A"sitting all by itself and not abutting any other circles. It looks kinda lonely. Can you tell what the addrss is on that property? Is it 5 Presea? Or 23081 Via Celeste?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1236842842][quote author="CalGal" date=1236837688][quote author="awgee" date=1236765847][quote author="freedomCM" date=1236758813]technically, i can't. i just use the "backup offers accepted" as a proxy.</blockquote>


Where do you see, "backup offers accepted"? In Redfin?</blockquote>


It states "Backup Offers Accepted in <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/31991-Via-Gallo-92679/home/5055534">Redfin</a>."</blockquote>


Aha! Where it says "Status". Thanks. I was wrong in my prediction of how long it would take this property to sell at this price.</blockquote>


How long were you thinking? I thought it would sit longer too considering the slightly irregular floorplan with the very narrow spiral staircase. But all the work done probably makes it seem like a new home.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1236996904]In the lower section of the northwest quadrant of the wonderful map you provided, there is a blue circle with an "A"sitting all by itself and not abutting any other circles. It looks kinda lonely. Can you tell what the addrss is on that property? Is it 5 Presea? Or 23081 Via Celeste?</blockquote>


You know I would hook you up with the low down on Coto.



http://i39.tinypic.com/23j4z1j.jpg



Looks like some serious HELOC abuse, with possibly two other liens having gone back to the bank. But... the first comes first, and that $1.8mil bad boy is scheduled for the Placentia auction on 3/17. You can check out the status in real time <a href="http://www.priorityposting.com/">here by clicking on advanced search.</a>
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1236036564]Too bad this one is not in Irvine, or IR could do one of his great write ups on refinancing, remodeling, and HELOCs.



The property,

<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/23081-Via-Celeste-92679/home/5056879">23081 Via Celeste</a>, is described as "Traditional Beauty" in it's listing, and I have to agree. The location of the pool in the front yard is a bit odd, but does not seem to detract immensely as there is plenty of privacy.

But, the sales history, along with the sales prices is what catches one's eye.



Date Event Price Appreciation Source

Mar 01, 2009 Price Changed $1,250,000 -- SoCalMLS #S559617

Feb 02, 2009 Price Changed $1,399,000 -- SoCalMLS #S559617

Jan 13, 2009 Listed $1,599,000 -- SoCalMLS #S559617

Sep 03, 1993 Sold $425,000 -10.7%/yr Public Records

Dec 28, 1992 Sold $459,000 -5.3%/yr Public Records

Jul 12, 1989 Sold $555,000 +18.4%/yr Public Records

Apr 15, 1988 Sold $450,000 -- Public Records



This home was built in 1986, sold for $425,000 in 1993, and is now a short sale, all according to Redfin. That must have been one heck of an extensive remodel. Redfin also shows the present listing as 48 days. It was listed in 2008 for maybe six months and did not sell.

Will the $1,250,000 short sale bait get any bids?</blockquote>


It seems the bait did not get any bites that the bank would reel in on. And the listing price was lowered today by $105,000 to $1,145,000.



Yesterday, two people told me now was the time to buy a home.

I dunno. I think we will wait.
 
Basically, there are two types of sellers in Coto. Those who want to sell their home, and those who need to sell their homes. I have noticed a home will be listed for sale at a WTH price, sit on the market for awhile, or maybe a long while. The price may be lowered by one or two token amounts. And then one day, the listing is gone, and no sale has been recorded. On the one hand, I feel bad for the listing agent who put some money into marketing the property with no return, and on the other hand, maybe the listing agents need to learn not to take listings at WTH prices.



The need to sell homes come on the market at any range of prices, but soon the price is lowered, and lowered in a fashion that reflects the types of offers or comments the listing is receiving. And when the price gets lowered enough, it sells.



I do not know if the sellers of <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/23731-Via-Roble-92679/home/5054804">23731 Via Roble</a> need to sell or want to sell, but the original listing price was definitely a fantasy wish. The first price lowering is not a token amount, but a decrease of 13% does not appear to me bring the price down to reality. But, what do I know?
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1237045945]



Looks like some serious HELOC abuse, with possibly two other liens having gone back to the bank. But... the first comes first, and that $1.8mil bad boy is scheduled for the Placentia auction on 3/17. You can check out the status in real time <a href="http://www.priorityposting.com/">here by clicking on advanced search.</a></blockquote>


Sale Date/Time: 3/17/2009 10:00 AM

Status: <strong>Postponed to 03/25/2009</strong> @ 10:00 AM - Beneficiary Request

Estimated Debt: $1,896,764.78

Bid Amount: N/A

Sale Amount: N/A

TS Number: CA-08-126922-MO

APN: 814-091-03

Priority #: 391087



Property County: Orange

Property Address: 6 VIA PRESEA, COTO DE CAZA, CA 92679
 
Back to my theory of two types of sellers in Coto.



Or is it a tale of two listings? Two new listings:





The first is <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/8-Cedargrove-92679/home/5058844">8 Cedargrove</a> with a listing price of $867,900 or $263 per sq ft.





The second is <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/9-Easthill-92679/home/5058824">9 Easthill</a> with a listing price of $1,250,000 or $338 per sq ft.





On a square footage basis, 9 Easthill is priced 22% higher. Are they in different neighborhoods you might ask? Nope, same neighborhood, (tract), about one block from one another. Does one have a better view than the other? You might think so by looking at the photos. The 9 Easthill listing has a photo of a golf course view, but in actuality, neither is on the golf course and from what I remember of that neighborhood and streets neither has a view of the golf course which is a few blocks away. Is the 9 Easthill lot bigger? Yes. Yes it is. 9 Easthill's lot is about 14,520 sq ft and 8 Cedargrove's lot is "only" 10,590 sq ft. But, to be fair, the portion of 9 Easthill's sq footage that is larger than 8 Cedargrove's sq footage is a slope and unbuildable. So why the big descrepancy in price per sq footage? My guess is that since 8 Cedargrove is bank owned, the owner is more realistic as to what the market will bear. Again, the distressed market is the market.
 
CalGal, wasn't this property listed by one of the "Real Houswives" for a year, and wasn't the asking price $1,000,000? Or was that a neighboring home?





<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Trabuco-Canyon/24106-Fairway-Ln-92679/home/5057565">24106 Fairway Lane</a>





Oh my, on the golf course for $275 per sq ft. What might this do for those thinking, "Yes, but our home is more desirable because it is on the golf course"?





The distressed market is the market. Am I repeating myself?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1237633795]The distressed market is the market. Am I repeating myself?</blockquote>


Yes you are, but it is worth repeating.
 
Ya think the listing agents told the owners of these two properties about the monthly inventory of $3,000,000 homes for sale in Orange County?



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Trabuco-Canyon/23102-Maravilla-Ln-92679/home/5056705">23102 Maravilla</a>

and

<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/16-Reflection-Ln-92679/home/5012960">16 Reflection</a>
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1237634255][quote author="awgee" date=1237633795]The distressed market is the market. Am I repeating myself?</blockquote>


Yes you are, but it is worth repeating.</blockquote>


<strong>The distressed market is the market.

The distressed market is the market.

The distressed market is the market.

</strong>
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1237634624][quote author="graphrix" date=1237634255][quote author="awgee" date=1237633795]The distressed market is the market. Am I repeating myself?</blockquote>


Yes you are, but it is worth repeating.</blockquote>


<strong>The distressed market is the market.

The distressed market is the market.

The distressed market is the market.

</strong></blockquote>


Here... let me help you. This image seems even more clusterf*cked than the previous one I posted, especially the green dots.



http://i44.tinypic.com/15xu3wp.jpg
 
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