Biggest Irvine drop?

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irvine_home_owner said:
Seems like Columbus Grove is getting killed.

Any other big drops? Like Quail Hill, Woodbury or Northpark+Square?
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I think Columbus Grove, like Ciara, is a better value except the location. I went to see a Turtle Ridge home and it was so tiny despite the house size is nearly 3000 sqft.
 
irvine_home_owner said:
Seems like Columbus Grove is getting killed.

Any other big drops? Like Quail Hill, Woodbury or Northpark+Square?
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I think that Ciara, Alexandria will recover nicely over time (a very very long time for those that bought in 2005) because they are a good product and meet the needs of Irvinites. For some reason, TIC believes that you don't deserve a driveway unless you've got more than 3000 sq ft. If you're looking at 2500 sq ft, then you're in a courtyard which just seems strange to me.

That being said, the Cantara development (huge house, no driveway, no parking) will see some record losses.
 
I was going to post a new thread but I was wondering about this as I watch all these prices move:

Are certain parts of Irvine going to be immune to big drops?

usctrojan was able to sell his condo for a profit even though he bought during the peaking cycle... and I don't see big drops in Quail Hill. I've said this before but I can understand seeing 40% drops in the older areas which had lower bases and are not as desireable due to age... but will it really be able to go that far for areas like Quail Hill or Woodbury?

I just can't see homes that originally sold from the builder for $1mil hitting a $600k-$700k price point. Even with foreclosures, it seems there will always be someone to buy it at a premium that will prevent price deterioration.

Maybe I haven't been fully detoxed from the KoolAid yet.
 
irvine_home_owner said:
I was going to post a new thread but I was wondering about this as I watch all these prices move:

Are certain parts of Irvine going to be immune to big drops?

usctrojan was able to sell his condo for a profit even though he bought during the peaking cycle... and I don't see big drops in Quail Hill. I've said this before but I can understand seeing 40% drops in the older areas which had lower bases and are not as desireable due to age... but will it really be able to go that far for areas like Quail Hill or Woodbury?

I just can't see homes that originally sold from the builder for $1mil hitting a $600k-$700k price point. Even with foreclosures, it seems there will always be someone to buy it at a premium that will prevent price deterioration.

Maybe I haven't been fully detoxed from the KoolAid yet.
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Homes will only sell for what buyers are willing and able to bid. Right now prices in the newer neighborhoods are not dropping as fast because the owners have less room to maneuver. When the foreclosures start to ravage these areas, prices will drop quickly. Must-sell inventory is the key determinant for the rate of price decline. Look at what happened at the Villages of Columbus. Prices have dropped 30%-40% because the builder needed to finish building out the neighborhood. Many have speculated it was because the neighborhood is less desirable, but it really dropped because of the must-sell inventory. The other neighborhoods in Irvine will catch up, it is only a matter of time.
 
IrvineRenter said:
irvine_home_owner said:
I was going to post a new thread but I was wondering about this as I watch all these prices move:

Are certain parts of Irvine going to be immune to big drops?

usctrojan was able to sell his condo for a profit even though he bought during the peaking cycle... and I don't see big drops in Quail Hill. I've said this before but I can understand seeing 40% drops in the older areas which had lower bases and are not as desireable due to age... but will it really be able to go that far for areas like Quail Hill or Woodbury?

I just can't see homes that originally sold from the builder for $1mil hitting a $600k-$700k price point. Even with foreclosures, it seems there will always be someone to buy it at a premium that will prevent price deterioration.

Maybe I haven't been fully detoxed from the KoolAid yet.
Click to expand...

Homes will only sell for what buyers are willing and able to bid. Right now prices in the newer neighborhoods are not dropping as fast because the owners have less room to maneuver. When the foreclosures start to ravage these areas, prices will drop quickly. Must-sell inventory is the key determinant for the rate of price decline. Look at what happened at the Villages of Columbus. Prices have dropped 30%-40% because the builder needed to finish building out the neighborhood. Many have speculated it was because the neighborhood is less desirable, but it really dropped because of the must-sell inventory. The other neighborhoods in Irvine will catch up, it is only a matter of time.
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Agreed, I don't know why people are so anxious to buy a home...it's like they got money burning a hole in their pocket because they think that prices are gonna boom again. Patience is a virtue and this holds very true for buying a home today. Let the prices come to you. It's only a matter of time before Irvine sees the same price declines as the Inland Empire has.
 
Do you really think that Irvine will fall as much as Lancaster, Moreno Valley, or Lake Elsinore? I was always under the impression that those areas increased in terms of percentage far greater than Irvine.
 
ABC123 said:
Do you really think that Irvine will fall as much as Lancaster, Moreno Valley, or Lake Elsinore? I was always under the impression that those areas increased in terms of percentage far greater than Irvine.
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Well, those outter areas will have greater price declines because they have lower peak housing prices to begin with...maybe even 70-80% from the peak for them while Irvine will be down 40-50% off the peak when the dust settles.
 
IrvineRenter said:
irvine_home_owner said:
I was going to post a new thread but I was wondering about this as I watch all these prices move:

Are certain parts of Irvine going to be immune to big drops?

usctrojan was able to sell his condo for a profit even though he bought during the peaking cycle... and I don't see big drops in Quail Hill. I've said this before but I can understand seeing 40% drops in the older areas which had lower bases and are not as desireable due to age... but will it really be able to go that far for areas like Quail Hill or Woodbury?

I just can't see homes that originally sold from the builder for $1mil hitting a $600k-$700k price point. Even with foreclosures, it seems there will always be someone to buy it at a premium that will prevent price deterioration.

Maybe I haven't been fully detoxed from the KoolAid yet.
Click to expand...

Homes will only sell for what buyers are willing and able to bid. Right now prices in the newer neighborhoods are not dropping as fast because the owners have less room to maneuver. When the foreclosures start to ravage these areas, prices will drop quickly. Must-sell inventory is the key determinant for the rate of price decline. Look at what happened at the Villages of Columbus. Prices have dropped 30%-40% because the builder needed to finish building out the neighborhood. Many have speculated it was because the neighborhood is less desirable, but it really dropped because of the must-sell inventory. The other neighborhoods in Irvine will catch up, it is only a matter of time.
Click to expand...
I understand the theory... I just am wondering if there are other factors that would prevent such drops. We can't really compare VoC to Quail Hill as QH is already built out and sold. Maybe Woodbury as Villa Rosa still has a few phases to go and Portola Springs is in deeper trouble.

I think we will see the drops at the lower end of QH but in the mid to high... aren't most of those buyers more stable than the half-a-mil Santa Ana 3ba/2br owners? Wouldn't they hold longer? Wouldn't there be less foreclosures? Wouldn't those end up being bought by people who can afford the pricetag?

I'm not itching to buy now... but I know a lot are and how will this affect those areas.
 
you know a lot who are, and have 20% downpayment? and all cash above the new conforming $625k limit? and who are in rock solid industries that will not be affected by the coming depression?
 
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