Are they overbuilding in Irvine?

BuddyLeo

BuddyLeo

Member
As a new home owner in Stonegate and Irvine, I am happy to be in such a nice and beautiful city. However, it seems that everywhere I turn, there are new communities being built (e.g. Orchard Hills, Cypress Village, Pavilion Park, Great Park in future, etc, etc.).

How realistic is the property value to maintain or grow when there is a glut of new inventory?

I don't see the same volume of new job growth and businesses moving in at the same pace so how can this be sustained?

Curious to have the TI community weigh in on your views.

Thanks!
 
Not enough room in the elementary school, not enough room in the after-school care program, not enough high schools, not enough space to park in the neighborhood, not enough room on Culver or Jeffrey, lines too long at 85? and Creamristry... time to move to Johns Creek.

Didn't I say somewhere that Irvine will be the next New York? ;)
 
Businesses will move in where the people are. Woodbury Town Center still seems to have some retail space available, but I see that filling out as Stonegate/Portola/Great Park are built.

My bigger concern is the traffic. The density of building in Irvine is quite high, and with increased use of motor courts, TIC is packing them in even tighter. Morning and afternoon traffic sucks just about anywhere in Irvine, and it'll only get worse.
 
Well.. it has it's pros and cons right?  Obviously you laid out the cons.. but the Pros.

1.  Sign of more/better jobs out this way.

2.  Better restaurants

3.  Better schools

They'll have to address traffic issues.  I used to live on Jamboree close to the 5.. took them 3 years to finish that project?  Sand Canyon is also taking it's sweet time.  I hope the city can think futuristic too.. maybe a Monorail?  Mono... doh?
 
I think it's certainly fair to worry about overdevelopment and mass saturation but I have a hard time betting against TIC and Donald Bren.  They have been basically on the money for 30 years so I am going with their track record.

As for traffic, that is probably my biggest concern but the work being done seems to be holding up.  Jamboree was a couple years ago but with the expansion, it flows nicely even during rush hour.  I expect the same for Sand Canyon when the construction is done. 

I am not worried at all about retail...business will come to where the people are as mentioned above, there is still plenty of retail space.  I mean even Diamond Jamboree has a hard time filling tenants.  Good business will always have crowds.  Look at Cream Pan.
 
I just received a marketing brochure touting the 150th Anniversary for the Irvine Company. One of the articles touts TIC's $50M contribution to transportation improvements in North Irvine. They also talk about the 2003 North Irvine Transportation Mitigation Program (NITM) and its positive effect on traffic. According to their propaganda, they have contributed $157M in "developer fees" to fund transportation improvements and $47.5M to the city for traffic associated community development.

Here is a map of the NITM Program:
25ev9di.jpg


Interestingly, looks like they will be placing a new 133 Interchange @ Trabuco Rd. This should help with some traffic along the Sand Canyon to I5. It also looks like they plan on connecting Portola Pkwy to Foothill Ranch.
 
iacrenter said:
I just received a marketing brochure touting the 150th Anniversary for the Irvine Company. One of the articles touts TIC's $50M contribution to transportation improvements in North Irvine. They also talk about the 2003 North Irvine Transportation Mitigation Program (NITM) and its positive effect on traffic. According to their propaganda, they have contributed $157M in "developer fees" to fund transportation improvements and $47.5M to the city for traffic associated community development.

Interestingly, looks like they will be placing a new 133 Interchange @ Trabuco Rd. This should help with some traffic along the Sand Canyon to I5. It also looks like they plan on connecting Portola Pkwy to Foothill Ranch.
Click to expand...

Looks like they are opening up another street parallel to Sand Canyon which alleviate some of the traffic coming form the GP.   

Does anyone know if the 133 will become toll free anytime soon?  I know that it's toll free south of the 5 but I recall that the toll roads are supposed become toll free after a certain period of time.
 
I recall reading something (not sure if it was for the 133 or another toll road) that they just renewed their bond and it will continue to be a troll road for quite some time.  They didn't get enough money from tolls.
 
jmoney74 said:
I recall reading something (not sure if it was for the 133 or another toll road) that they just renewed their bond and it will continue to be a troll road for quite some time.  They didn't get enough money from tolls.
Click to expand...

There goes that thought

The bond issue will extend the time that motorists must pay tolls on the Foothill-Eastern's highways by 13 years ?from 2040 to 2053 ? and add upward of $1.75 billion to the corridor's total interest payments by the time the bonds mature in 2053.
Click to expand...
http://articles.latimes.com/2013/dec/12/local/la-me-toll-road-bonds-20131213

Also...it's funny how no one talks about toll/private roads are generally money losers but there are plenty of critics about mass transit.
http://blogs.reuters.com/muniland/2013/01/19/are-private-toll-roads-a-losing-idea/
 
There's significantly more traffic on 5 and 405 move towards Irvine than leaves Irvine during morning rush hours.  Unless this trend changes, there will continue to have significant demand for Irvine housing and continue to support Irvine's housing prices.  I don't think they are overbuilt in Irvine, at least not yet.
 
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