Aliso Viejo Discussion Thread

[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1219217544]<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Aliso-Viejo/14-Meadowpoint-92656/home/4856618">14 Meadowpoint</a> made it back on to MLS after a couple of weeks from the investor purchase...



I think they will make out nicely on this flip. Will be interesting to see just how nicely.



</blockquote>


And just like that, 14 Meadowpoint is under contract, off a $779K list price...
 
If that is a successful flip, congrats to the flipper. Knife flipping is indeed a treacherous art these days, well done.



Not many folks can say they made a profitable trade on south OC RE in 2008.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1219443260][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1219217544]<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Aliso-Viejo/14-Meadowpoint-92656/home/4856618">14 Meadowpoint</a> made it back on to MLS after a couple of weeks from the investor purchase...



I think they will make out nicely on this flip. Will be interesting to see just how nicely.



</blockquote>


And just like that, 14 Meadowpoint is under contract, off a $779K list price...</blockquote>


Someone indeed played that well. Props to them. Something tells me you would have to be a pretty sophisticated investor to have the cash on hand to buy a house this expensive at the foreclosure auction.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1219220927]

Say what? Exsqueeze me? Aren't rates lower one-year later? They did buy with a conforming ($400K) 30-year fixed loan...



<img src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/morgtrend.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>


Hrm, that chart doesn't jive with my own personal experiences, but who knows whats up...



I remember talking to a mortgage broker about a year ago and he was saying he could get me a 5.75 30 year fixed....just called countrywide and got a quote for 7.1



This is with a 750ish FICO, 20% down, conforming.
 
Check out this AV market chaser...



Date Price

Jul 08, 2007 $625,000

Sep 11, 2007 $600,000

Oct 31, 2007 $575,000

Dec 26, 2007 $540,000

Jul 14, 2008 $515,000

Aug 14, 2008 $495,000

Source: MRMLS



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Aliso-Viejo/Unknown-92656/home/12461126">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Aliso-Viejo/Unknown-92656/home/12461126</a>
 
[quote author="Priced_Out_IT_Guy" date=1220087085]Check out this AV market chaser...



Date Price

Jul 08, 2007 $625,000

Sep 11, 2007 $600,000

Oct 31, 2007 $575,000

Dec 26, 2007 $540,000

Jul 14, 2008 $515,000

Aug 14, 2008 $495,000

Source: MRMLS



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Aliso-Viejo/Unknown-92656/home/12461126">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Aliso-Viejo/Unknown-92656/home/12461126</a></blockquote>


Interesting they pulled the address off the listing. IIRC that one is on Via Carisma.
 
I was looking at low-cost housing in South Orange County...a bunch of 3bd/2bath townhome/condos came onto the market (~$250K asking price.) They're close to Iglesia Park. At first I was encouraged, but, I read on another forum that this development is home of the disadvantaged...a tough working-class immigrant area where English-only speakers might feel out of place.



Are there areas in Aliso Viejo that are more affluent, but affordable (oxymoron?!?)

Just north of that area (Veeh Ranch Park in Laguna Hills), I see a bunch of 3bd condos at the $300k border, but the associatoin-fee is somewhat high ($340.)
 
[quote author="Shadax" date=1217283389][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1217127190][quote author="graphrix" date=1217125537]An investor picked up <a href="http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=25544780">14 Meadowpoint yesterday for $634k</a>. Last sold for $830k in 12/04. Not sure if that was a wise investment or not.



Caliguy, are you tracking some of the foreclosures that don't go back to the bank like this one? Kinda like round 2 of flipping gone wrong in thinking the foreclosure champ was going to get knocked out, only to come out swinging and beating the flipper down.</blockquote>


I think it will be a good flip. I believe that unit is a 2800sf 4/3. <strong>They should be able to unload it in the low $700K range for sure</strong>...</blockquote>


1 Thornbird is similar in specs, has a pool, and sold for $710k nearly 4 months ago. I doubt it.</blockquote>


Update on 14 Meadowpoint, it closed for $732K on 9/18. Bought at auction in July and flipped within two months for almost $100K more. I call that a smart investment. They did do some work on it though so profit was probably more toward $50-60K. I think on an annualized basis that is over 50%...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1219217255]Updated my Aliso Viejo tracking with a couple of new closes. A 2,340sf place on Diamond Gate, same neighborhood as Thornbird and Meadowpoint, just closed at $700K...</blockquote>


Any chance you've updated "IPO's AV CS" recently?



Thanks.
 
[quote author="AVRenter" date=1229753679][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1219217255]Updated my Aliso Viejo tracking with a couple of new closes. A 2,340sf place on Diamond Gate, same neighborhood as Thornbird and Meadowpoint, just closed at $700K...</blockquote>


Any chance you've updated "IPO's AV CS" recently?



Thanks.</blockquote>


Unfortunately, I haven't been following AV closely of late. When I opened up my tracking in Irvine to cover more of the property spectrum, I ran out of time to watch AV closely.



I do see sales come through and my sense is that prices have been relatively flat there for a number of months.



A quick check via Zillow on a sample of ten closings over the past three months shows a median CS index value of 182 and an average of 185. AV was already hitting CS values in the 180s in the summer, so it appears to indeed have been flat since July/August.
 
I really like these Latitudes at Vantis condos. Does anyone have any information on this development? It seems that it has entire wings that are completely vacant, and tons of inventory.



The floorplans and amenities in this section of Aliso are really nice, but 400-500K for a 2 bedroom condo? That's still 2006 peak prices. 300K seems more reasonable, especially considering nobody is buying here. (There seems to be alot more homes bought in the City Walk - work/live area though).



At least it's not as bad as the Central Park West (Irvine) 500K 1 bedroom disaster. (Is project cancelled? I see alot of window dressing on the exterior of some of the buildings there).



http://www.sheahomes.com/main.cfm?dir=findahome&subsec=overview&temp=communityoverview&communityid=401
 
Hey guys, I have a friend who might buy in the Canyon Villas. Prices there have fallen quite a bit. There are some approved short sales for around 300k and one short sale for 285k. These are two bed/2 bath. What do you guys think of these. Good price? The sq. ft is about 1145. He wanted to wait till the end of the year but he currently lives in a bad area of santa ana. This past Saturday there was actually a shooting right across the street from the house he was renting. Should he offer the full price on the short sales or offer less. Lets say 280k. Think the bank will take it? I tried talking him into renting in a better area but he says he is tired of renting. His annual income is about 80k.
 
Just wanted to give everyone an update. My friend put in a low ball offer of 270k. I visited this place with him and it is very nice. His payments didn't look to bad. He is putting down 10%. Not sure how much the mello roos are and i think the HOA is about 250.
 
[quote author="Future Buyer" date=1239357652]Just wanted to give everyone an update. My friend put in a low ball offer of 270k. I visited this place with him and it is very nice. His payments didn't look to bad. He is putting down 10%. Not sure how much the mello roos are and i think the HOA is about 250.</blockquote>
Was his $270k low ball offer accepted?
 
I would stay away - at least if your friend is hoping to trade up any time soon. That's a bubble-era condo conversion gone bad. There are MANY foreclosures there.
 
I still say short sales are mostly fictional, especially the pricing. The bank won't approve an offer at asking on most short sales, let alone below asking. Look at an REO nearby, and offer what they are charging, even if it's above asking. Of course, if you can do that, it's a lot quicker and easier to simply by the REO itself.
 
[quote author="Future Buyer" date=1239184433]Hey guys, I have a friend who might buy in the Canyon Villas. Prices there have fallen quite a bit. There are some approved short sales for around 300k and one short sale for 285k. These are two bed/2 bath. What do you guys think of these. Good price? The sq. ft is about 1145. He wanted to wait till the end of the year but he currently lives in a bad area of santa ana. This past Saturday there was actually a shooting right across the street from the house he was renting. Should he offer the full price on the short sales or offer less. Lets say 280k. Think the bank will take it? I tried talking him into renting in a better area but he says he is tired of renting. His annual income is about 80k.</blockquote>


What's the status?



"Enjoy the Resort-Like Lifestyle!" says the realtard on #29H. Is that because it's right next door to the "Islands" tract? Yuck.



Even at $270k the numbers don't work out and there's no reason at all to believe they won't continue to slide. You can find 2/2's in there for under $1750/month no problem. CV is not all that impressive and the 1145sqft units should not be commanding a $276/sqft average. It's just a huge converted apartment complex with a lot of units and guest parking is not enforced. The gates are just a nuisance but were put in to keep the AVLNHS riff-raff out (and you should see the HS traffic in the morning on whatever that street is off Pacific Park). A buddy of mine lives there and curses the trees with yellow pollen that cover his car constantly. However, there appears to be a decent workout center, it's close to the 73, 8min's from the 5, close to Town Center, and close to the trails. Not necessarily a bad place to live, just not worth the price when you can still rent it out for a couple hundy less. Check rents at Applause or Windflower; they have better floor plans, less density, and easier street access.
 
Lived in Canyon Villas for a year and I can confirm everything AVRenter just said. The tree sap will F up your paint and guest parking is HORRIBLE. Obviously, every place has it's ups and downs. However, Canyon Villas has been struggling since the beginning of the conversion. They started renting unsold units out last year. My sister-in-law purchased a place during one of their auctions in late 2007 for $395k. 2&2 on the 3rd floor. They'd be lucky to get $300k now. I've gotta believe with the competition for condo's in AV, those prices are going to continue to fall. Also, while we're on the topic of AV, the Shea Properties City Lights' development is struggling mightily. They've discounted rents a ton and are doing tons of promos to try and fill the place.
 
My friend decided not to purchase there or anywhere else for the moment. Once I showed him the chart of the ALT-A/Option Arm loans that are about to reset and the amount of short sales/foreclosures at canyon villas he was convinced that it is not worth the risk or the current asking prices. Not sure where he will be moving to though. What do you guys think will be a reasonable price for these condos?
 
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