Aliso Condo Purchase

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rickhunter_IHB

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My coworker put in an offer to purchase a 2b/2b/2gar 1100sf in zip 92656.

He said it was listed at $450K LOL and his offer is $415K LOL.

He's serious about doing this and you know how I feel. He's going to rent it out and I told him that rent would be about $1700/month. What should the house price be for this rent amount and can anybody find something comparable/better than this?

Thanks...
 
Look at it this way:

Countrywide's stock was pretty much took off in 2001/2002 along with the housing market. That kind of growth is unsustainable and it has since 'popped' along with the market.

If stocks (a typically good long term investment) can adjust so significantly downwards, then housing (a typically bad investment) will do even worse. It isn't very liquid so adjustments will take time. You're ahead of the game by reading this (and other) housing blogs because there are still plenty of homeowners, koolaid drinkers, and flippers out there who are still in denial. Just 5 months ago, the CEO of a builder was saying that October would be the bottom. Hell, even some of my coworkers were saying that the other day.

I laughed so far that Coke shot out through my mouth and nose. It hurt.
 
Um yeah he might want to be watching the foreclosures there in Aliso. Two weeks ago he/she could have had a 900+ sqft 2bd condo for $270k. For once I have to say listen to Cramer.
 
Oh, I just remembered. My friend had purchased a 3B/3B SFR in Aliso right before the boom. He paid in the high $300k's. Assuming a normal market, it would probably be worth $450k tops (~1,400sf, a 5x5 yard, and tighly packed community).

$400k for a condo in Aliso is absolutely crazy. As graphix said, the foreclosures will catch up to fast, hard, and blood will be shed.

That being said, I have no problems with the city itself. It's a nice and quite neighborhood (although the commercial plaza center is packed in the evenings).
 
Thanks. These are good comments. Since I cant convince him, I will point him to this link. I think he's absolutely crazy too. But crazy as he is, some of my coworkers are actually looking to invest now! DAMN, I just cant believe these people.

I was unable to persuade another coworker 6 months ago. Everytime I talk to her now, I dont even bring up this subject. I dont know if she's aware of it but if she looks around, she's probably lost at least $50K.
 
good point ray!

If realtwhores and bubblenuts want to say that housing appreciates by double digits then it can go right back down just like stocks can.

They want the best of everything. Nevermind that the inherent risk of an investment is priced into its rate of return. "I want a fail safe investment that appreciates at 18% a year!!!"

I have no problem with acknowledging the fact that homes can go up in value by 20% a year, as long as you admit that they can go down by 20% a year.
 
There are 500 homes and condos available for sale in Aliso Viejo. The most ever in it’s history as a city. We have seen nothing yet.
 
update:

My coworker's offer of 415K was countered by a 449K from the seller for a whopping 1K discount!

Talk about drinking the KOOLAID! This definitely belongs in the WTF category!
 
Didn't IR cover this two days ago. It's Friday. Let them sweat until Tuesday and resubmit an offer at $410K.

That's provided you don't take Trooper's good advice.
 
Screw that. Tell him to go offer $269k because there wasn't any offers for the condo at the foreclosure auction for $270k. With that offer he should demand a 10 page letter from the seller on WTF his apartment er condo is even worth $269k. Then ask him if he thinks that the 16 other condos scheduled for the foreclosure auction this month are going to hurt prices? Be sure to mention only that 80% of them have NTS amounts of less than $449k.
 
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