AI-pocalypse

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Liar Loan

Liar Loan

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Do you agree that plumbers will be more highly compensated than lawyers in the not-too-distant future? What will Korean Alpha Dads and Chinese Tiger Moms do to cope?

‘Plumbers regularly earn more than lawyers’: Top entrepreneur makes a bold prediction that AI will flip the American Dream​

He argues we’re witnessing a “swinging pendulum” in which the high value once placed on “white-collar work behind a screen” is moving toward “blue-collar work with your hands.” Other CEOs like Ford’s Jim Farley have sounded a similar alarm, arguing there’s far more demand for blue-collar work than there are people who want to do it.

He’s concerned about staffing AI data centers and factories, which he calls a crisis affecting the “essential economy” of blue-collar workers who make up $12 trillion in U.S. GDP, according to the Aspen Institute. Farley has also said AI could wipe out half of white-collar jobs, instead ushering in mass demand for skilled trades and blue-collar work.

“There’s more than one way to the American Dream, but our whole education system is focused on four-year [college] education,” Farley said during the Aspen Ideas Festival last summer. “Hiring an entry worker at a tech company has fallen 50% since 2019. Is that really where we want all of our kids to go? Artificial intelligence is going to replace literally half of all white-collar workers in the U.S.”

 
I do think there will be higher value on non-AI occupations.

But what can and can't AI replace is up for debate.

Some sites say Lawyers can be, but other sites say they can't.

Obviously jobs that are more physical will be harder to replace... but that's what robots are for. :)

I was eating at a place and they had this robot with the cat face bringing food to your table (this wasn't a repeat service place like AYCE or whatever, just a casual sit down where you order at the counter and the bot brings your order). The person I was sitting with was asking what was the need for this technology. Why not have the person who is loading the robot just call the number and let the people come up and get their food?

Moral of the story: Just because AI/robots can replace some human work, doesn't mean they should or that the work will be at the same or better quality. It also misses the human element which might be what makes people continue to use your product/service.

The point of college education is something I've brought up in the past, not just because of AI, but because of the practicality of the education expense compared to what kids will actually end up doing.

There is also the issue of how AI is used. As you've seen on many threads here, AI can be prompted to a certain bias/direction/outcome. I experience that at work all the time where I have one guy who doesn't think certain things can be done so when I tell him to ask AI, he asks in a way that favors the response he's looking for. That's because AI models try to support what you are asking unless you specifically challenge them or re-ask them in different ways.

And maybe that's where all the Asian kids will be going... into plumbing or AI Prompt Engineering. :)
 
1. Supply and demand
2. Barrier to entry

Hypothetically if supermarket cashiers salary were to double, there is relatively low barrier of entry for the job.

So why did they choose plumbers as an example? There is higher barrier/bar to entry.

To qualify for California Journeyman plumber exam you are required to have 4 year/8,000 hour plumbing apprenticeship.

To become licensed contractor you must pass CA law and business and trade exam.

After completion you might earn $70k-$80k/year, which is superior to unemployed white collar employees made redundant by AI.
 
The problem (or good thing, depending on your POV) is that there's a ready substitute for blue collar labor. I long ago gave up trying to find competent "skilled labor" to do what I needed to have done, and quickly realized I could do most things myself. It takes some research to look up how-tos and building codes, and a mechanical aptitude really helps, but I'll put the quality of my work up against anyone's, because no one cares as much as I do about whatever work I'm doing for myself. You can't blindly follow everything you see on youtube, but if you do your research and know what lines can't be crossed, youtube and other interweb sources are amazingly valuable in teaching techniques, finding the best tools and suppliers, etc. There's NFW I'm paying someone $100/hour or more to work on my house or my car just so he can task it to some shop hand with 3 months experience making $18/hour. Rare exceptions include HVAC and countertops, since those require specialized equipment and experience.

Hell, I could probably boil down a lot of building codes into "don't make it too weak, don't allow for fire, don't allow for toxic gas to enter/accumulate, and don't allow water leaks or intrusion".
 
I agree with what you are saying. But I also think you are much more highly skilled in the trades than the majority of white collar workers. I want things done right but I simply don't have the skill to do it myself. I also don't want to pay $100/hr for $18/hr quality.
 
I'm too lazy for DIY. I'd rather pay for it. :)

That's also why I use AI, too much work sifting through Google, AI curates and I just have to validate/verify.
 
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