A new escrow thread for a new housing market...
- Thread starter ipoplaya_IHB
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Have you been tracking the drop-out rate? I have been hearing that many deals are falling out of escrow because the lenders are taking very conservative appraisals and most buyers cannot come up with the additional cash to close the deal.
Drop-outs are tracked and indicated. I found 3-4 last week with around 30 or so going under contract. I'd guess it has been running 5-10%.
Deals definitely appear to be taking longer to get closed. The escrow list keeps growing as closes haven't kept nearly the pace. Will be interesting to see what prices do with available inventory shrinking.
How long is the average escrow time? At 10% per week, a 5 week escrow would mean a 50% dropout rate!
My percentage was vs. new escrows. Looking over the data since 3/1, I have 193 new contracts and only eight that dropped out. That would put the rate at 4%. Many of those are quite new, and a few will cancel, so the dropout rate is probably more like 5-6%, i.e. 1 in every 16-20 Irvine escrows ends up canceling.
When I first started tracking these, what seems like so long ago, people used to suggest that getting into escrow meant nothing because deals often never closed. At least for Irvine, I think I have proven that is not the case. Once a property goes under contract, there is very high likelihood it will culminate in a sale.
Escrow start dates are through 4/22. Maybe delete your temp internet files and try again...
It's those FCBs!!!!
Since there have been so few sales at the mid- and high- end of the market, the mix of sales have exaggerated the drop in the median. Prices of individual properties can continue to fall while the median rises as the mix begins to shift toward sales of properties that are somewhat more expensive.
Why don't you try to be a little more honest with the "facts" you present.
Those are the median *LISTING PRICE* for OC, not sales prices.
All it takes is a few more people listing their WTF priced $2M houses in Ladera for the median *listing price* to go up.
Make that 37 new escrow entrants over the past six days. Finally updated them all. Phew... That is tiring.
Looks like April will likely end up showing a small price decrease for the month, probably around 1% or so down vs. March.
1% ISN"T a small decline when you are talking about a monthly decline. Add the ULTRA low interest rates in the mix and I wouldn't have been surprised with an increase like you had in March.
Nice new background by the way!
And thanks for doing this, it is very valuable.
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
It's 2005 deja-vu all over again. This time, unemployment and foreclosure wave will be the things that pull out the rug from underneath the feet of the knifecatchers.awgee said:
irvine123_IHB
New member
I have noticed some short sells that went into escrow very quickly after listing ( like within a week). I am curious if that is trick the realtor / owners are playing in order to buy more time from the lender, etc?
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
Eight new escrow entrants for today alone so far... I am now tracking 180 properties in some stage of escrow, either pending sale or accepting backups. Around 25% of the total inventory in Irvine is probably under contract right now.
IrvineRenter_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:
Have you been tracking the drop-out rate? I have been hearing that many deals are falling out of escrow because the lenders are taking very conservative appraisals and most buyers cannot come up with the additional cash to close the deal.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
IrvineRenter said:
Drop-outs are tracked and indicated. I found 3-4 last week with around 30 or so going under contract. I'd guess it has been running 5-10%.
Deals definitely appear to be taking longer to get closed. The escrow list keeps growing as closes haven't kept nearly the pace. Will be interesting to see what prices do with available inventory shrinking.
CapitalismWorks_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:
How long is the average escrow time? At 10% per week, a 5 week escrow would mean a 50% dropout rate!
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
CapitalismWorks said:
My percentage was vs. new escrows. Looking over the data since 3/1, I have 193 new contracts and only eight that dropped out. That would put the rate at 4%. Many of those are quite new, and a few will cancel, so the dropout rate is probably more like 5-6%, i.e. 1 in every 16-20 Irvine escrows ends up canceling.
When I first started tracking these, what seems like so long ago, people used to suggest that getting into escrow meant nothing because deals often never closed. At least for Irvine, I think I have proven that is not the case. Once a property goes under contract, there is very high likelihood it will culminate in a sale.
Gohabsgo_IHB
New member
Ipo, for some reason I don't see the updates. Escrows are 4/14 and closed are still only 4/3. Is it only me who has this problem?
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
Roo said:
Escrow start dates are through 4/22. Maybe delete your temp internet files and try again...
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
Wow, just saw 10 new escrows come through. I have 25 new ones over the past three days that I need to add... The new Bubble has begun.
irvine_home_owner_IHB
New member
Since I haven't said it in a while...ipoplaya said:
It's those FCBs!!!!
IrvineRenter_IHB
New member
I know everyone is getting excited about all the sales activity, but did you know that Irvine is still showing less sales this year than last?
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
I would venture to guess that cities that were beat up hard like Santa Ana, Anaheim, and Stanton had the higher sale increases year over year.IrvineRenter said:
asianinvasian_IHB
New member
median home prices in OC still rising...
2009-04-20 $449,900
2009-04-13 $445,000
2009-04-06 $440,000
2009-03-30 $435,000
2009-03-23 $434,000
2009-04-20 $449,900
2009-04-13 $445,000
2009-04-06 $440,000
2009-03-30 $435,000
2009-03-23 $434,000
IrvineRenter_IHB
New member
asianinvasian said:
Since there have been so few sales at the mid- and high- end of the market, the mix of sales have exaggerated the drop in the median. Prices of individual properties can continue to fall while the median rises as the mix begins to shift toward sales of properties that are somewhat more expensive.
PadreBrian_IHB
New member
I would discount any count of pre-foreclosures used to justify anything. 98% of those idiots are using it as "proof" that they need a mortgage fix from their bank. They lied on their loans back in 2006/2007, why stop milking the system now?
freedomCM_IHB
New member
asianinvasian said:
Why don't you try to be a little more honest with the "facts" you present.
Those are the median *LISTING PRICE* for OC, not sales prices.
All it takes is a few more people listing their WTF priced $2M houses in Ladera for the median *listing price* to go up.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:
Make that 37 new escrow entrants over the past six days. Finally updated them all. Phew... That is tiring.
Looks like April will likely end up showing a small price decrease for the month, probably around 1% or so down vs. March.
Gohabsgo_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:
1% ISN"T a small decline when you are talking about a monthly decline. Add the ULTRA low interest rates in the mix and I wouldn't have been surprised with an increase like you had in March.
Nice new background by the way!
And thanks for doing this, it is very valuable.