A new escrow thread for a new housing market...

Just had a quick thought I wanted to run by you guys. The entire bubble, and subsequent collapse of the bubble, was created on the demand side of the equation. Cheap financing, a soaring market, a bunch of speculators, etc caused demand to go way above where it should be. Then the collapse of the finance market caused the demand to evaporate.



Now that it appears that through government effort and lower home prices demand is on the way up again. But most people here point to the supply side (foreclosures) and say the market is going to continue to tank.



I have been a bear all along in this market....but I certainly didn't expect to see 30% to 40% declines in price. But I really do think that this entire housing 'crisis' is going to get solved on the demand side. Supply will obviously have an impact, but clearly the market has been driven for the last 10 years both up and down by demand.



What do you guys think (ducking for cover)?
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1238738114][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1238736813]



Yeah, doomsday for Woodbury... Uh huh... Houses there might actually start selling for 20% off peak after more foreclosure volume vs. the 10-15% they have been. That'll make all the difference.



Pretty maps with lots of P's are nice but you probably put some up 6-9 months ago, 12 months ago, etc. just like those and yet Irvine inventory still is headed down.



Today it's the foreclosure moratorium, tomorrow it will be something else... Come July, Obama will probably be riding in an armored truck in Woodbury handing out stacks of TARP cash to everyone that has lost their equity and can't refi.</blockquote>


Ipop

We should organize a protest/riot at the Citibank in the Woodbury Town Center.

Just like the people over in the UK at the G-20 meetings.

Affliction has a real cool Anarchy T-shirt.

Pick one up at Nordstrom before the event.

I'll spring for it.</blockquote>


If Obama comes, we need to challenge him to a game of 2 on 2. Who should we give Obama as his teammate? Ipo or IR2?
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1238682765]I<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com"> just updated 27 new properties</a> that hit escrow over the past 5 days or so. That's about as brisk a stretch that I have seen... I have 123 places I am tracking in escrow with backup offer status. There are at least another 15-20 indicated as pending.



There are around 150 less units on the market right now vs. the same time last year and a great many more already in the sales process vs. a year ago. Listed inventory has been trending down during March (not normal) as sales volumes have outpaced new listings.</blockquote>


This is really useful information, but is there anyway we can get it for the lower priced properties as well? Or is that too much work?



Thanks!
 
[quote author="24inIrvine" date=1238803273][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1238738114][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1238736813]



Yeah, doomsday for Woodbury... Uh huh... Houses there might actually start selling for 20% off peak after more foreclosure volume vs. the 10-15% they have been. That'll make all the difference.



Pretty maps with lots of P's are nice but you probably put some up 6-9 months ago, 12 months ago, etc. just like those and yet Irvine inventory still is headed down.



Today it's the foreclosure moratorium, tomorrow it will be something else... Come July, Obama will probably be riding in an armored truck in Woodbury handing out stacks of TARP cash to everyone that has lost their equity and can't refi.</blockquote>


Ipop

We should organize a protest/riot at the Citibank in the Woodbury Town Center.

Just like the people over in the UK at the G-20 meetings.

Affliction has a real cool Anarchy T-shirt.

Pick one up at Nordstrom before the event.

I'll spring for it.</blockquote>


If Obama comes, we need to challenge him to a game of 2 on 2. Who should we give Obama as his teammate? Ipo or IR2?</blockquote>


Which one of them is more athletic?

I think IR2 was in a sport but don't know if he can ball.





You?ll have to check Obama and work our perimeter game.

While I handle and control the paint.

Maybe we can get Lacoste to sponsor our jerseys, I?ll work on it.
 
[quote author="24inIrvine" date=1238803273]



If Obama comes, we need to challenge him to a game of 2 on 2. Who should we give Obama as his teammate? Ipo or IR2?</blockquote>


I play the post, most a by-product of living with a bunch of little asian dudes for most of college, so Bama and I will make an excellent team. He can shoot the J's and I'll get nasty in the middle. We'll be pickin' and rollin' all over everyone!
 
[quote author="genie117" date=1238804118]



This is really useful information, but is there anyway we can get it for the lower priced properties as well? Or is that too much work?



Thanks!</blockquote>


With the pace of activity right now, I couldn't handle the additional sub 1200sf volume.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1238804203]



Which one of them is more athletic?

I think IR2 was in a sport but don't know if he can ball.



You?ll have to check Obama and work our perimeter game.

While I handle and control the paint.

Maybe we can get Lacoste to sponsor our jerseys, I?ll work on it.</blockquote>


A fellow middle man huh? I used to have solid jump hooks with either hand, but I fear the left is probably non-existent now. I probably still have a nice fadeaway over the right shoulder from both sides of the lane that is good out to 12' or so. Man, my BMI could really use some regular hoops, even if was just 2-on-2 or 3-on-3...
 
[quote author="genie117" date=1238804118][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1238682765]I<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com"> just updated 27 new properties</a> that hit escrow over the past 5 days or so. That's about as brisk a stretch that I have seen... I have 123 places I am tracking in escrow with backup offer status. There are at least another 15-20 indicated as pending.



There are around 150 less units on the market right now vs. the same time last year and a great many more already in the sales process vs. a year ago. Listed inventory has been trending down during March (not normal) as sales volumes have outpaced new listings.</blockquote>


This is really useful information, but is there anyway we can get it for the lower priced properties as well? Or is that too much work?



Thanks!</blockquote>


Lowered price in Irvine is an oxymoron.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1238808158][quote author="genie117" date=1238804118]



This is really useful information, but is there anyway we can get it for the lower priced properties as well? Or is that too much work?



Thanks!</blockquote>


With the pace of activity right now, I couldn't handle the additional sub 1200sf volume.</blockquote>




Thanks anyway!
 
Yup, I watch 1200sf and above in Irvine and 2000sf and above in Tustin Ranch. I usually ignore the highrise airport-area stuff as it's hard to get previous sale data.
 
Town - - - - Zip - - - Price - - - - Yr Chg - - - - Sales - - - - Yr Chg





Irvine / / / 92602 / / $619,000 / / / -16.4% / / / / / 17 / / / / / -43.3%

Irvine / / / 92603 / / $700,000 / / / -21.6% / / / / / 25 / / / / / +31.6%

Irvine / / / 92604 / / $495,000 / / / -11.6% / / / / / 18 / / / / / +0.0%

Irvine / / / 92606 / / $532,500 / / / -26.0% / / / / / 6 / / / / / -60.0%

Irvine / / / 92612 / / $427,000 / / / +2.9% / / / / / / 17 / / / / -19.0%

Irvine / / / 92614 / / $397,500 / / / -13.6% / / / / / 12 / / / / / -14.3%

Irvine / / / 92618 / / n/a / / / / / / n/a / / / / / / n/a / / / / / n/a

Irvine / / / 92620 / / $685,000 / / / -6.2% / / / / / / 29 / / / / / +0.0%







It seems like Data Quick keeps publishing sales info that show that prices in Irvine are decreasing on a consistent basis, but Data Quick appears to be contradictory to Ipo.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1238804203]



You?ll have to check Obama and work our perimeter game.

While I handle and control the paint.

Maybe we can get Lacoste to sponsor our jerseys, I?ll work on it.</blockquote>


Okay, I got him...I'm already studying film:



<object width="325" height="250"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/youtube" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="325" height="250"></embed></object>



No right hand whatsoever. That is one tall chick though.





Hey Ipo, do you have an uppper limit max which you don't track or just the lower limit of 1200? and why only 2000 and up in TR? cause its less desirable?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1238814918]Town - - - - Zip - - - Price - - - - Yr Chg - - - - Sales - - - - Yr Chg





Irvine / / / 92602 / / $619,000 / / / -16.4% / / / / / 17 / / / / / -43.3%

Irvine / / / 92603 / / $700,000 / / / -21.6% / / / / / 25 / / / / / +31.6%

Irvine / / / 92604 / / $495,000 / / / -11.6% / / / / / 18 / / / / / +0.0%

Irvine / / / 92606 / / $532,500 / / / -26.0% / / / / / 6 / / / / / -60.0%

Irvine / / / 92612 / / $427,000 / / / +2.9% / / / / / / 17 / / / / -19.0%

Irvine / / / 92614 / / $397,500 / / / -13.6% / / / / / 12 / / / / / -14.3%

Irvine / / / 92618 / / n/a / / / / / / n/a / / / / / / n/a / / / / / n/a

Irvine / / / 92620 / / $685,000 / / / -6.2% / / / / / / 29 / / / / / +0.0%







It seems like Data Quick keeps publishing sales info that show that prices in Irvine are decreasing on a consistent basis, but Data Quick appears to be contradictory to Ipo.</blockquote>


As you know, IPO data only reflects a slice of the market. Data Quick includes all the homes of all sizes in each zip code.



Unless there are large sample of missing escrows in the size range he tracks, or mistakes in the closing prices he used, I can't image his data can be wrong (up or down).
 
<em>"The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision today jointly released their quarterly report on first lien mortgage performance for the fourth quarter of 2008. The report covers mortgages serviced by nine large banks and four thrifts, constituting approximately two-thirds of all outstanding mortgages in the United States.



The report showed that credit quality continued to decline in the fourth quarter of 2008. At the end of the year, just under 90 percent of mortgages were performing, compared with 93 percent at the end of September 2008. This decline in credit quality was evident in all loan risk categories, with subprime mortgages showing the highest level of serious delinquencies. However, the biggest percentage jump was in prime mortgages, the lowest loan risk category and one that accounts for nearly two-thirds of all mortgages serviced by the reporting institutions. At the end of the fourth quarter, 2.4 percent of prime mortgages were seriously delinquent, more than double the 1.1 percent recorded at the end of March 2008."</em>
<fieldset class="gc-fieldset">
<legend> Attached files </legend> <a href="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/304_AArDWFzPCBVkQdu91kUB.jpg"><img src="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/304_AArDWFzPCBVkQdu91kUB.jpg" class="gc-images" title="mortgage1-300x275.jpg" style="max-width:300px" /></a> </fieldset>
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1238814918]



It seems like Data Quick keeps publishing sales info that show that prices in Irvine are decreasing on a consistent basis, but Data Quick appears to be contradictory to Ipo.</blockquote>


Different methodologies (mine superior) with different results. If I was comparing sales in Irvine with similar sale prices a year prior, I'd probably be showing a consistent decline as well...
 
[quote author="irvine123" date=1238815548]



As you know, IPO data only reflects a slice of the market. Data Quick includes all the homes of all sizes in each zip code.



Unless there are large sample of missing escrows in the size range he tracks, or mistakes in the closing prices he used, I can't image his data can be wrong (up or down).</blockquote>


I don't have the sub 1200sf properties in any zip code, so there is some distortion there.



DQ is just a simple median on closed transactions with no comparison to the previous sale price of the home. Anyone that understands this and Case-Shiller pricing methodology should have much more faith in Case-Shiller style results.
 
[quote author="24inIrvine" date=1238815433][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1238804203]



You?ll have to check Obama and work our perimeter game.

While I handle and control the paint.

Maybe we can get Lacoste to sponsor our jerseys, I?ll work on it.</blockquote>


Okay, I got him...I'm already studying film



No right hand whatsoever. That is one tall chick though.



</blockquote>


Alright, it?s on.

Have Ipop meet us at Tustin Sports Park off Jamboree.

We?ll throw down outdoors.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1238817329]



Alright, it?s on.

Have Ipop meet us at Tustin Sports Park off Jamboree.

We?ll throw down outdoors.</blockquote>


Might be a good idea... Has anyone here gotten together for some ball? There is a nice little court at Paseo Westpark and San Marino that I used to play at with co-workers.



I need to invest in a defibrillator if I were to start playing again.
 
[quote author="24inIrvine" date=1238815433]



No right hand whatsoever. That is one tall chick though.



</blockquote>


He had to throw the hook to get around the little white dude for the lay-up when he used his right. Foul! He's got some nice moves though and good form on his J.



The chick should have been camping down low not floating around the outside...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1238820562][quote author="24inIrvine" date=1238815433]



No right hand whatsoever. That is one tall chick though.



</blockquote>


He had to throw the hook to get around the little white dude for the lay-up when he used his right. Foul! He's got some nice moves though and good form on his J.



The chick should have been camping down low not floating around the outside...</blockquote>


Agree

She?s tall, but not fluid and doesn?t move her feet well.

Wasn't setting screens or cleaning the glass.

Lucky to get the feed from Obama and score it over the short guy.

I would?ve have sent her shot into the 2nd row.
 
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