A new escrow thread for a new housing market...

Loudroar, I'm pretty sure he just does a search on Irvine, so that why you don't any of Lake Forest or Tustin in there.



Graph, so I don't have to count. Does it tell you the number of each color of pins there? Kinda impossible to count with all those overlaps anyways. When is the estimated doomsday for Woodbury? Later this year or not til 2010?
 
First of all, those P's come and go, and some of them have been on there for close to a year. So don't go thinking that that inventory gets refreshed on a monthly basis, because it doesn't. I subscribe to FR too and I have seen only four new properties show up in my 2 zip codes that I check since January.



And second, do you really think, with all that the government has done to prop up the housing market, that they're just going to sit by and watch all of those resets force houses onto the market and not do something about it? You're wrong, wrong, wrong, if you do. The straight numbers are inescapable, I agree, but you must factor in our government's willingness to interfere in the market process to make sure there isn't carnage. It's political suicide for them, they don't have the courage to do it. Way too many politicans with not enough guts for that to happen.



So yes, I believe that there are a lot of buyers out there for the Irvine market who have the money and who are willing to buy, for the long term, and I believe that despite what's coming up with the ARM resets, the market will continue to be buoyed by government interference and buyers with the cash and the credit.
 
[quote author="24inIrvine" date=1238730641]Loudroar, I'm pretty sure he just does a search on Irvine, so that why you don't any of Lake Forest or Tustin in there.



Graph, so I don't have to count. Does it tell you the number of each color of pins there? Kinda impossible to count with all those overlaps anyways. When is the estimated doomsday for Woodbury? Later this year or not til 2010?</blockquote>


There are a total 596 homes in some sort of foreclosure process, and only 431 are shown on the map. 355 P's, 161 A's, and 80 B's.



Doomsday for Woodbury will begin the second half of this year and into 2010. One issue with foreclosure radar is if the address isn't in the system, or for some other APN type of confusion, then it will not show up in foreclosure radar but it does at county records. If you look closely at the map where the Michelson North Korean towers are, and you will see one pin, but I know of about 8 that are scheduled for the auction. The same goes for Woodbury, too new, so FR doesn't show all the pins that should be there.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1238735928][quote author="24inIrvine" date=1238730641]Loudroar, I'm pretty sure he just does a search on Irvine, so that why you don't any of Lake Forest or Tustin in there.



Graph, so I don't have to count. Does it tell you the number of each color of pins there? Kinda impossible to count with all those overlaps anyways. When is the estimated doomsday for Woodbury? Later this year or not til 2010?</blockquote>


There are a total 596 homes in some sort of foreclosure process, and only 431 are shown on the map. 355 P's, 161 A's, and 80 B's.



Doomsday for Woodbury will begin the second half of this year and into 2010. One issue with foreclosure radar is if the address isn't in the system, or for some other APN type of confusion, then it will not show up in foreclosure radar but it does at county records. If you look closely at the map where the Michelson North Korean towers are, and you will see one pin, but I know of about 8 that are scheduled for the auction. The same goes for Woodbury, too new, so FR doesn't show all the pins that should be there.</blockquote>


Yeah, doomsday for Woodbury... Uh huh... Houses there might actually start selling for 20% off peak after more foreclosure volume vs. the 10-15% they have been. That'll make all the difference.



Pretty maps with lots of P's are nice but you probably put some up 6-9 months ago, 12 months ago, etc. just like those and yet Irvine inventory still is headed down.



Today it's the foreclosure moratorium, tomorrow it will be something else... Come July, Obama will probably be riding in an armored truck in Woodbury handing out stacks of TARP cash to everyone that has lost their equity and can't refi.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1238736813][quote author="graphrix" date=1238735928][quote author="24inIrvine" date=1238730641]Loudroar, I'm pretty sure he just does a search on Irvine, so that why you don't any of Lake Forest or Tustin in there.



Graph, so I don't have to count. Does it tell you the number of each color of pins there? Kinda impossible to count with all those overlaps anyways. When is the estimated doomsday for Woodbury? Later this year or not til 2010?</blockquote>


There are a total 596 homes in some sort of foreclosure process, and only 431 are shown on the map. 355 P's, 161 A's, and 80 B's.



Doomsday for Woodbury will begin the second half of this year and into 2010. One issue with foreclosure radar is if the address isn't in the system, or for some other APN type of confusion, then it will not show up in foreclosure radar but it does at county records. If you look closely at the map where the Michelson North Korean towers are, and you will see one pin, but I know of about 8 that are scheduled for the auction. The same goes for Woodbury, too new, so FR doesn't show all the pins that should be there.</blockquote>


Yeah, doomsday for Woodbury... Uh huh... Houses there might actually start selling for 20% off peak after more foreclosure volume vs. the 10-15% they have been. That'll make all the difference.



Pretty maps with lots of P's are nice but you probably put some up 6-9 months ago, 12 months ago, etc. just like those and yet Irvine inventory still is headed down.



Today it's the foreclosure moratorium, tomorrow it will be something else... Come July, Obama will probably be riding in an armored truck in Woodbury handing out stacks of TARP cash to everyone that has lost their equity and can't refi.</blockquote>
IPO, it will be years before the dust settles with the housing market, especially with the government getting involved. Step back and ask yourself another reason why inventory may be down? Could it be that many people are underwater and won't even consider listing their property? Like I said, Irvine will be one of the last nuts that crack in this downturn. In a normal healthy market you would see prices increase because of the decrease in supply but you've seen the opposite. The problem is that there aren't motivated sellers out there yet, including the banks (their pipeline of bank owned homes are growing faster than they can push them out the door). I've said it once and I'll say it again, the housing prices won't move as fast as the stock prices so you and many others would be best advised to wait. How long do you think those lines of buyers will be as we get closer to a 20% unemployment rate in California in the next 12-24 months?
 
didn't IR predicted this "spring-summer bump", from his OG chart from 3/07?



<img src="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/ihb-post-irvine-market-decline-chart.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1238736813]



Yeah, doomsday for Woodbury... Uh huh... Houses there might actually start selling for 20% off peak after more foreclosure volume vs. the 10-15% they have been. That'll make all the difference.



Pretty maps with lots of P's are nice but you probably put some up 6-9 months ago, 12 months ago, etc. just like those and yet Irvine inventory still is headed down.



Today it's the foreclosure moratorium, tomorrow it will be something else... Come July, Obama will probably be riding in an armored truck in Woodbury handing out stacks of TARP cash to everyone that has lost their equity and can't refi.</blockquote>


Ipop

We should organize a protest/riot at the Citibank in the Woodbury Town Center.

Just like the people over in the UK at the G-20 meetings.

Affliction has a real cool Anarchy T-shirt.

Pick one up at Nordstrom before the event.

I'll spring for it.
 
Man, I love that chart of IR's. I hope that cockeyed optimist (as he was recently described) is dead-on in his analysis. My current two-year home lease ends 12/31/2010...If IR's pretty lines are correct, that looks like almost perfect timing.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1238736813]Yeah, doomsday for Woodbury... Uh huh... Houses there might actually start selling for 20% off peak after more foreclosure volume vs. the 10-15% they have been. That'll make all the difference.



Pretty maps with lots of P's are nice but you probably put some up 6-9 months ago, 12 months ago, etc. just like those and yet Irvine inventory still is headed down.



Today it's the foreclosure moratorium, tomorrow it will be something else... Come July, Obama will probably be riding in an armored truck in Woodbury handing out stacks of TARP cash to everyone that has lost their equity and can't refi.</blockquote>


If you really believe that, then call Deuce right now and buy a house, because inventory is down. I'm sure you are right, just like you haven't been the last few years about prices going down or the job market getting worse. Who cares about inventory. How many of are distressed sales? Would you say that there are 596? If not, then that means there is a nice shadow inventory. Should I click the tab to show past REOs that the banks still haven't put on the market yet because they are totally overwhelmed? Ask Deuce about the REO guy in his office with the never ending stack of REOs coming in. How many are falling out of escrow again?



You fell off the wagon and have been hitting the Kool-Aid again. Fine, go buy a house, it's the bottom right. Yeah... TARP money, too bad it only applies to 5% of the distressed properties in Irvine. I'm sure that will totally help save the Irvine market. It might help Santa Ana or Anaheim, but the foreclosures there are starting to slow down, unlike Irvine where it is increasing.



BTW, about 9 months ago I did post a FR map of Irvine, it barely had 400 pins on it. Just like inventory is going down, the pins are going up.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1238738329]



If you really believe that, then call Deuce right now and buy a house, because inventory is down. </blockquote>


Thought about it, but there isn't much to choose from right now...



Hardy-har-har :)
 
[quote author="CK" date=1238738315]Man, I love that chart of IR's. I hope that cockeyed optimist (as he was recently described) is dead-on in his analysis. My current two-year home lease ends 12/31/2010...If IR's pretty lines are correct, that looks like almost perfect timing.</blockquote>
We expect a house-warming party with booz in 1Q11 at your new residence to celebrate your purchase (I'm putting it on my calendar as we speak).
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1238738746][quote author="graphrix" date=1238738329]



If you really believe that, then call Deuce right now and buy a house, because inventory is down. </blockquote>


Thought about it, but there isn't much to choose from right now...



Hardy-har-har :)</blockquote>
So impatient IPO, for shame. haha
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1238738756][quote author="CK" date=1238738315]Man, I love that chart of IR's. I hope that cockeyed optimist (as he was recently described) is dead-on in his analysis. My current two-year home lease ends 12/31/2010...If IR's pretty lines are correct, that looks like almost perfect timing.</blockquote>
We expect a house-warming party with booz in 1Q11 at your new residence to celebrate your purchase (I'm putting it on my calendar as we speak).</blockquote>


Why wait until then? We should have a party every quarter that the chart is correct until 2011. First installment of the party Q2 2009. How about Monday night?
 
[quote author="CK" date=1238739100][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1238738756][quote author="CK" date=1238738315]Man, I love that chart of IR's. I hope that cockeyed optimist (as he was recently described) is dead-on in his analysis. My current two-year home lease ends 12/31/2010...If IR's pretty lines are correct, that looks like almost perfect timing.</blockquote>
We expect a house-warming party with booz in 1Q11 at your new residence to celebrate your purchase (I'm putting it on my calendar as we speak).</blockquote>


Why wait until then? We should have a party every quarter that the chart is correct until 2011. First installment of the party Q2 2009. How about Monday night?</blockquote>
Works for me. First round to you and Deuce on Monday night is on me.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1238738884][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1238738746][quote author="graphrix" date=1238738329]



If you really believe that, then call Deuce right now and buy a house, because inventory is down. </blockquote>


Thought about it, but there isn't much to choose from right now...



Hardy-har-har :)</blockquote>
So impatient IPO, for shame. haha</blockquote>


If and when my old condo is selling for what I sold for, you will really see some impatience... Now I am just having fun messin' with crackercakes.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1238738746][quote author="graphrix" date=1238738329]



If you really believe that, then call Deuce right now and buy a house, because inventory is down. </blockquote>


Thought about it, but there isn't much to choose from right now...



Hardy-har-har :)</blockquote>


And just for sh*ts and giggles, I looked at about 30 properties in 92620 that are scheduled for the auction. A whole 3 show up on Redfin. Even though 25, 27, and 29 Grape Arbor are scheduled for the auction, <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/25-Grape-Arbor-92620/home/5931555">only 25 is on Redfin</a>. So if my non-scientific experiment of 10% of the foreclosures are on the MLS, then you can add about 500 homes to your inventory. :p
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1238740350]



And just for sh*ts and giggles, I looked at about 30 properties in 92620 that are scheduled for the auction. A whole 3 show up on Redfin. Even though 25, 27, and 29 Grape Arbor are scheduled for the auction, <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/25-Grape-Arbor-92620/home/5931555">only 25 is on Redfin</a>. So if my non-scientific experiment of 10% of the foreclosures are on the MLS, then you can add about 500 homes to your inventory. :p</blockquote>


Bring it on! I need some good stuff to select from...
 
All of this makes me glad that I try to ask my dumb questions in private. But at least I know some other people were starting to be fooled into thinking we were actually approaching bottom. I think it's definitely some impatience coming through. A lot of you guys have been waiting so long and you have to deal with impatient spouses on top of that, I'm sure it's tough.
 
What does it cost the banks to just sit on those foreclosures? With all the TARP being thrown their way... can they just do it underwater style and hold until prices rebound?



Just wondering because I keep reading about all these houses that have been taken back but are not on the market... where o where have those foreclosures gone?
 
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