$900k for Single Family Home in Irvine? 2019 possibilities !

BangBros said:
Prices right now are a bit WTF for resales in Irvine.  A few listings are misleading.  Some have been on the market for over 100-200 days and that is unusual for this kind of market.  (i.e.https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/25-Herringbone-92620/home/17471461)

We went to see a few homes that were on Redfin for 10 days but then the listing agent tells us it was previously on the market and didn't sell and the sellers switched agencies.  Their "on market for" counter got reset to 0, but this information is critical to us because it gives us leverage.

I am hoping for rapid increase in interest rates because I feel these sellers do not understand what is about to happen potentially next year.  As you can see here, the Fed is likely to increase again next year. (http://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2016/12/15/the-fed-will-not-carry-through-on-2017-interest-rate-hikes/#330ac6e91543)

Sellers need to understand, interest rate rises means people will qualify less on a DTI but they don't seem to understand that concept.  They let these homes sit empty, paying $4000 in mortgage, HOA, mello roos, taxes.  Why anyone would do that is beyond me.  That is a $48,000 loss y-o-y.  I asked one seller, where they move to from this irvine 4 bedroom home.  They said Mission Viejo (chinese couple). 

One realtor told me, this home is SOO special because it has a downstairs master bedroom.  I'm like...seriously, even Trellis Court has downstairs bedroom.  Realtors these days are so full of sh**.  If the home was so hot, it would've sold in 10 days.
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Haha  So right about most realtors.  Here's the cold reality, if a home hasn't gone into escrow within 30 days....it's OVERPRICED.  It really is as simple as that.  Some agents try to reset the days on market clock but that's just smoke and mirrors.  For a lot of sellers and even listing agents, it's more about saving "face" in terms of getting a high sales price...the seller for their pride and the listing agent for their shiny new flyers which are junk mail anyhow. 

I advise my sellers as to what they should list their homes for if they want to sell them quickly and the ones that take my advice have their home fly into escrow within a few weeks at good prices.  The concept of TIME = MONEY and OPPORTUNITY COST is something that many agents and sellers don't understand.  Not surprising when most agents have the equivalent of a high school education.  Unless a home has some awesome large lot or view lot, there isn't anything that much different from one home in a tract versus another.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
BangBros said:
Prices right now are a bit WTF for resales in Irvine.  A few listings are misleading.  Some have been on the market for over 100-200 days and that is unusual for this kind of market.  (i.e.https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/25-Herringbone-92620/home/17471461)

We went to see a few homes that were on Redfin for 10 days but then the listing agent tells us it was previously on the market and didn't sell and the sellers switched agencies.  Their "on market for" counter got reset to 0, but this information is critical to us because it gives us leverage.

I am hoping for rapid increase in interest rates because I feel these sellers do not understand what is about to happen potentially next year.  As you can see here, the Fed is likely to increase again next year. (http://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2016/12/15/the-fed-will-not-carry-through-on-2017-interest-rate-hikes/#330ac6e91543)

Sellers need to understand, interest rate rises means people will qualify less on a DTI but they don't seem to understand that concept.  They let these homes sit empty, paying $4000 in mortgage, HOA, mello roos, taxes.  Why anyone would do that is beyond me.  That is a $48,000 loss y-o-y.  I asked one seller, where they move to from this irvine 4 bedroom home.  They said Mission Viejo (chinese couple). 

One realtor told me, this home is SOO special because it has a downstairs master bedroom.  I'm like...seriously, even Trellis Court has downstairs bedroom.  Realtors these days are so full of sh**.  If the home was so hot, it would've sold in 10 days.
Click to expand...

Haha  So right about most realtors.  Here's the cold reality, if a home hasn't gone into escrow within 30 days....it's OVERPRICED.  It really is as simple as that.  Some agents try to reset the days on market clock but that's just smoke and mirrors.  For a lot of sellers and even listing agents, it's more about saving "face" in terms of getting a high sales price...the seller for their pride and the listing agent for their shiny new flyers which are junk mail anyhow. 

I advise my sellers as to what they should list their homes for if they want to sell them quickly and the ones that take my advice have their home fly into escrow within a few weeks at good prices.  The concept of TIME = MONEY and OPPORTUNITY COST is something that many agents and sellers don't understand.  Not surprising when most agents have the equivalent of a high school education.  Unless a home has some awesome large lot or view lot, there isn't anything that much different from one home in a tract versus another.
Click to expand...

Solution: automate the home buying process
 
eyephone said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
BangBros said:
Prices right now are a bit WTF for resales in Irvine.  A few listings are misleading.  Some have been on the market for over 100-200 days and that is unusual for this kind of market.  (i.e.https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/25-Herringbone-92620/home/17471461)

We went to see a few homes that were on Redfin for 10 days but then the listing agent tells us it was previously on the market and didn't sell and the sellers switched agencies.  Their "on market for" counter got reset to 0, but this information is critical to us because it gives us leverage.

I am hoping for rapid increase in interest rates because I feel these sellers do not understand what is about to happen potentially next year.  As you can see here, the Fed is likely to increase again next year. (http://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2016/12/15/the-fed-will-not-carry-through-on-2017-interest-rate-hikes/#330ac6e91543)

Sellers need to understand, interest rate rises means people will qualify less on a DTI but they don't seem to understand that concept.  They let these homes sit empty, paying $4000 in mortgage, HOA, mello roos, taxes.  Why anyone would do that is beyond me.  That is a $48,000 loss y-o-y.  I asked one seller, where they move to from this irvine 4 bedroom home.  They said Mission Viejo (chinese couple). 

One realtor told me, this home is SOO special because it has a downstairs master bedroom.  I'm like...seriously, even Trellis Court has downstairs bedroom.  Realtors these days are so full of sh**.  If the home was so hot, it would've sold in 10 days.
Click to expand...

Haha  So right about most realtors.  Here's the cold reality, if a home hasn't gone into escrow within 30 days....it's OVERPRICED.  It really is as simple as that.  Some agents try to reset the days on market clock but that's just smoke and mirrors.  For a lot of sellers and even listing agents, it's more about saving "face" in terms of getting a high sales price...the seller for their pride and the listing agent for their shiny new flyers which are junk mail anyhow. 

I advise my sellers as to what they should list their homes for if they want to sell them quickly and the ones that take my advice have their home fly into escrow within a few weeks at good prices.  The concept of TIME = MONEY and OPPORTUNITY COST is something that many agents and sellers don't understand.  Not surprising when most agents have the equivalent of a high school education.  Unless a home has some awesome large lot or view lot, there isn't anything that much different from one home in a tract versus another.
Click to expand...

Solution: automate the home buying process
Click to expand...

I've thought about that, kind of like an ebay listing place when buyers can go to submit offers.  One wrinkle comes in with the logistics of showing homes, who's going to be the gatekeeper to make sure seller contact info and gate codes are misused?  That being said, the realtor association is a HUGE lobbying group that would fight against automating the home buying process to the bitter end.  Think about all the millions and millions of dues that they would lose and what those high school educated former realtors would end up doing for a living.  haha
 
BangBros said:
I also cannot believe the industry is allowing 43% DTI on gross income.  43% DTI gross is really like 69% DTI on the after-tax income which really means that banks think that people are willing to spend 2/3 rds of their after-tax paychecks on their home?  Leaving 1/3 for everything else?  That seems really asinine as well. 

Oh wait, the banks don't care about that 1/3.  They "allow" the homeowner to just blow it all on vacation and new cars and ski trips and braces for the kids and day care and what not.  Now this homeowner is really behaving like a "subprime" home-owner.

BTW guys... I'm off this entire week.  Company paid holiday shutdown. =)  So yeah I'm bored as fuck, sitting at home browsing zillow, redfin, TI, and of course BB (jk).
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If you think that's bad, I've heard of a few lenders going up close to 50% DTI as long as the borrower had great credit, little outside debt, and a lower LTV.  Now just image what a slight decrease in income will do to that borrower...YIKES!  I will say, one good thing is that lenders today (and for the past 8+ years) are thoroughly underwriting their loans...no more NINJA loans.  But as things slow down lenders might want to get "creative" again to increase business so that's we have to look out for.  Once you hear anything like NINJA or Option ARMs coming back, be ready to sell.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
If you think that's bad, I've heard of a few lenders going up close to 50% DTI as long as the borrower had great credit, little outside debt, and a lower LTV.  Now just image what a slight decrease in income will do to that borrower...YIKES!  I will say, one good thing is that lenders today (and for the past 8+ years) are thoroughly underwriting their loans...no more NINJA loans.  But as things slow down lenders might want to get "creative" again to increase business so that's we have to look out for.  Once you hear anything like NINJA or Option ARMs coming back, be ready to sell.
Click to expand...

I've personally run into issues where I can only "prove" half of my income which turns a 20% DTI into 40% DTI, etc. My mortgage payment was actually only 11-12% of my pre-tax income last year, yet a lender actually declined a refi due to a DTI over the limit.
 
In 2017, China government is limiting its citizen to wire no more than U.S.$10,000 each time per month to oversea. Max $50,000 per person per year, which is subject to approval.  I am sure this will highly affect the Irvine housing market this year.
 
LA168 said:
In 2017, China government is limiting its citizen to wire no more than U.S.$10,000 each time per month to oversea. Max $50,000 per person per year, which is subject to approval.  I am sure this will highly affect the Irvine housing market this year.
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Time to buy more bitcoin.
 
LA168 said:
In 2017, China government is limiting its citizen to wire no more than U.S.$10,000 each time per month to oversea. Max $50,000 per person per year, which is subject to approval.  I am sure this will highly affect the Irvine housing market this year.
Click to expand...

There are ways around that, just like almost everything else.  Grease some palms and wire funds to a Hong Kong account then wire to the US, problem solved by throwing a little money at it.
 
That's the way to do it in 2016, not anymore in 2017 as banks in Hong Kong are required to follow the same regulations if remitter is from mainland China.  I am a lender specializing in foreign national loans.  Business is NOT easy as before.
 
paperboyNC said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
If you think that's bad, I've heard of a few lenders going up close to 50% DTI as long as the borrower had great credit, little outside debt, and a lower LTV.  Now just image what a slight decrease in income will do to that borrower...YIKES!  I will say, one good thing is that lenders today (and for the past 8+ years) are thoroughly underwriting their loans...no more NINJA loans.  But as things slow down lenders might want to get "creative" again to increase business so that's we have to look out for.  Once you hear anything like NINJA or Option ARMs coming back, be ready to sell.
Click to expand...

I've personally run into issues where I can only "prove" half of my income which turns a 20% DTI into 40% DTI, etc. My mortgage payment was actually only 11-12% of my pre-tax income last year, yet a lender actually declined a refi due to a DTI over the limit.
Click to expand...

Yeah, my DTI was just under 40% because the lender haircut my lease amounts (75% of the actual amounts) on my rentals and excluded all of my trading income. 
 
Cash in the underwear > bitcoin. :)

So I did a Redfin search, there are still SFRs in Irvine for less than $900k.

Some older, some small, the new ones are in Portola but something like this is okay:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15052-Humphrey-Cir-92604/home/4682197

Over 2000sft, huge lot on a cul-de-sac... but... backs the train tracks I think.

And to think, back in 2005-06 when it was the "height" of the bubble, 3CWG 2500sft homes were $900k-$1m and everyone thought that was peak pricing.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Cash in the underwear > bitcoin. :)

So I did a Redfin search, there are still SFRs in Irvine for less than $900k.

Some older, some small, the new ones are in Portola but something like this is okay:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15052-Humphrey-Cir-92604/home/4682197

Over 2000sft, huge lot on a cul-de-sac... but... backs the train tracks I think.

And to think, back in 2005-06 when it was the "height" of the bubble, 3CWG 2500sft homes were $900k-$1m and everyone thought that was peak pricing.
Click to expand...

Wow, sold in 2010 for $200k... Bargain.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Cash in the underwear > bitcoin. :)

So I did a Redfin search, there are still SFRs in Irvine for less than $900k.

Some older, some small, the new ones are in Portola but something like this is okay:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15052-Humphrey-Cir-92604/home/4682197

Over 2000sft, huge lot on a cul-de-sac... but... backs the train tracks I think.

And to think, back in 2005-06 when it was the "height" of the bubble, 3CWG 2500sft homes were $900k-$1m and everyone thought that was peak pricing.
Click to expand...

Not only does it side to the train tracks but also the power lines.
 
The biggest problem getting money out of the country right now is currency exchange. Especially for popular currencies like the dollar. You will have to make an appointment at your local branch and often times they will say come back at a later time because they don't have it right now. There are also unofficial lists of people who change too much money. There is much much more I could get into but the point is, it is harder and harder to get your money out of here now.

Just check out the price of bitcoin. Driven up by people/corporations getting their money out of China.
 
LA168 said:
That's the way to do it in 2016, not anymore in 2017 as banks in Hong Kong are required to follow the same regulations if remitter is from mainland China.  I am a lender specializing in foreign national loans.  Business is NOT easy as before.
Click to expand...

I have some questions that you might be able to answer and potential business for you. Send me a PM if interested.
 
LA168 said:
In 2017, China government is limiting its citizen to wire no more than U.S.$10,000 each time per month to oversea. Max $50,000 per person per year, which is subject to approval.  I am sure this will highly affect the Irvine housing market this year.
Click to expand...

Sorry and no offense to anyone, but the back-doors workarounds, crooked ways chinese have is beyond anyone's wildest imagination here, you cannot stop them from laundering money, shell companies, inner connections, loopholes etc. are being exploited everyother day, do not expect Irvine to be the next vancouver, america loves foreign cash and chinese will rule
 
aquabliss said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Cash in the underwear > bitcoin. :)

So I did a Redfin search, there are still SFRs in Irvine for less than $900k.

Some older, some small, the new ones are in Portola but something like this is okay:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15052-Humphrey-Cir-92604/home/4682197

Over 2000sft, huge lot on a cul-de-sac... but... backs the train tracks I think.

And to think, back in 2005-06 when it was the "height" of the bubble, 3CWG 2500sft homes were $900k-$1m and everyone thought that was peak pricing.
Click to expand...

Wow, sold in 2010 for $200k... Bargain.
Click to expand...

I want to be that dream buyer lol
 
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