66 Secret Garden, NW2, bought in 11/2012 for $650K, sells in 3/2013 for $905K?

USCTrojanCPA said:
The time to sell is when lenders start easing up lending standards like they did back in the good old days.  Right now underwriting is still very strict.  I can tell you guys that most of the buyers that are buying today are much stronger (more cash down) so there will be stronger hands when the next downturns happens.  People seem to have a short term memory but banks seem to have better memories.
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For this reason, it probably won't be as profitable to sell your home and become a renter like it was in the previous cycle.  The transaction costs take such a big chunk of the profits, and the rent you pay will be a sunk cost as well.
 
When rates hit 4.25% and are continuing to rise, it's time to sell. A rate with a 4% handle will cause the last few buyers to start a land rush to get in before it's too late pushing prices just a nudge higher. Sellers at that time will be happy to get out of the market. The music will finally stop and everyone starts looking for a place to sit.

Easy lending won't come back anytime soon. Most states have restricted exotic financing and the Agencies or what ever comes next from the Government won't relax their guidelines. HUD/FHA is a prime example. The fees for FHA insured financing are about to become so expensive that the loan product can't be widely used. Without government backstopping like FHA, banks are going to be tightfisted on their checkbooks and not approve as many loans as they would like. 
 
zubs said:
Since this new bubble has only been going for less than 6 months, I'd give it 2~6 years before it pops.  So sell in 3?...possible.  Depends when cash becomes king again.
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I would think cash is king pretty much all the time. ;)  Just ask the Cypriots. :'(
 
When I say cash, I mean liquidity.  Cyprus just proves to me that fiat is dying.  So I am trying to transfer more of my wealth away from liquidity and into hard assets.  I kept Panda's idea from 2009 in my head.  He was going to mortgage his house turn it into gold. 

What I did was take out a huge loan and bought a house.  Similar idea. 

Inflation's a bitch, but it'll be good for my debt.  If the US government can play this game, so can I.
 
Do you guys remember back in early 2013 we were talking about the run up and calling it a bubble.  Well 3 years later, and we are still up at the same level.  It's good to go back to old posts and see what you thought back in the day....

Looking at secret garden today, redfin estimates it at 1.11 million, while a neighbor at 30 secret garden is selling at 1.349 million.  So it looks like we are even higher than 2013 prices.
 
We are definitely higher than 2013 prices.  66 Secret Garden is a Plan 3 and a slightly smaller Plan 2 (57 cornflower) just sold for $1.1M after being on the market just a few weeks. 
 
Cubic Zirconia said:
End of Obama, end of bubble. All cooked up numbers come crashing in 2015.
We are tempted to sell, but it doesn't make much sense to buy back now. Hanging on, until next summer.
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Wake up Cubic, nothing crashed in 2015 and all your predictions went haywire...lol, dont expect trump to sell 300k condos in Irvine in 2017
 
qwerty said:
Crispy3 said:
qwerty said:
So for those of you who see the bubble forming - are you tempted to sell?
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How long do you all think this bubble will last?
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i was thinking about 2 years and then pop. Zubs seems to think it could go as long as 6 years, which would be crazy if that did happen.
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The price of homes raced up 25% from 2012 to beginning 2013.  It felt like a bubble, but now in 2016 where prices are even higher...why did we even think it was a bubble in 2013?  We were still conditioned to be bears.....Learn from the past. 

Why does 2013 Qwerty think being in this "bubble" until 2019 would be crazy?
 
This thread started in 2013 talking about the bubble we were in.

Now we are in 2018 and we are finally flattening out on the housing increases....

I like this board because we can review our own mistaken thought through the years....my forecast that the bubble will last 6 years was a lucky guess....however, I've always been lucky.
 
Post and polls do provide historical data and archived our thoughts and beliefs at that moment in time. I appreciate IHO for his polls and your predictions is pretty good.


We are creatures of habits and often make our decisions on our past experiences. What I learned from all this is that go and get what you want when no one is looking.  :)

 
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