3000 The Plaza

[quote author="JLegend" date=1221128626]Too bad they are in the likes of Orange and Fullerton...no offense, but can't see myself living there or driving to and from there. Wow, am I snob or what!? lol.</blockquote>


Status symbol and location are important to you. I do not see marriage and family in your distant future. I sensed you are climbing rapidly in the corporate ladder at your company that you feel you will be working for this company for a very long time. You are also trying real hard to maintain your image among your peers. Living in Orange or Fullerton are not exactly the addresses for a sucessful corporate executive and I understand.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1220916896][quote author="Keanu" date=1220750125][quote author="JLegend" date=1220654864] What other alternatives are there? </blockquote>


Not much in the immediate future, unfortunately. If you haven't done so already, you should read some, if not all, of BK's comments and follow his lead....</blockquote>


You may really need to reassess your priorities. I think you like OC because of your job location and it is just a 5 minute commute to your work and other facilities that you having to travel to for your work. Certainly you like the discipline of a master planned city, water close by as well as the impeccable safety reputation. The aesthetic that appeal to you is clean line Modernism and a cookie cutter home falls short in delivering this demanding aesthetic. Living in the middle of a soccer mom community is a tension to your identity. You do not own a business where you will have a potential in making some obscene amount of money for a Crystal Cove home. Your have a white collar profession. Your salary historically aligns within a predictable linear projection. Being a handyman and doing yard work is not for you so let me recommend an alternative product that delivers the clean line aesthetic that you are looking for however it will not have the kind of view from a high rise.



In Turtle Rock there are some late 60?s Atomic Ranch products with expansive glass that emphasizes the indoor and outdoor relationship. Many will require updating to the Kitchen and baths. Another location is out of the Master planned community but still in OC. It is the Eichler?s Atrium courtyard homes. The homes were designed by Midcentury Modern architects during the late 50?s and 60?s. You may be able to find something there that will meet your aesthetic requirements as well as properties that follow the economic model of RE developments in OC.



<img src="http://content.cdlib.org/ark:/13030/kt70001461/hi-res" alt="" />





<img src="http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:c_hZjNafcyWOzM:http://www.socketsite.com/443 Ferne.jpg" alt="" />





<img src="http://www.grassrootsmodern.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/_blog_uploads_Image_Eichler-Fireplace-Picture.png" alt="" />



<img src="http://content.cdlib.org/ark:/13030/kt667nb8s2/hi-res" alt="" /></blockquote>


Looks like Slade Smiley's place.
 
Swung by this place as I still had interest. Unfortunately, their info sheets show that the Plan A, 1br+den 2/full baths are all sold out. Those ranged from $600 to mid 700s. No clue what contract prices actually went for. The 2br+den are still being sold $100K + over the asking price for the Plan A's, with only 100 sq. ft more living space. Too expensive if you ask me. I was only in the market for Plan As. Might be interested in resales, but sellers are holding firm to the higher prices in the other two towers. Plus, no added benefit of negotiating with a builder for incentives. At least the most expensive penthouse was sold!



I also heard anecdotally that an older couple had bought one of the penthouses, but because it wasn't ready yet, they just bought one of the 2 bdroom units (not sure what plan) to live in the mean time. They plan to keep it as a "guest house" after they move into the penthouse. I also heard that one of the Plan A's was bought by this Chinese guy for his niece, who he practically raised as a kid. I guess these are the sort of people moving into this building. I also heard that Towers 1 and 2 have units purchased by ball players, several playing for out of state MLB teams and a couple of NHL hockey guys. Also, some big shot sports agent supposedly bought 4 units so his guys can stay when they are in town.



interesting to hear when you poke around. I wonder with that clientele, whether a place like the Plaza will weather this market at least better than other housing options in irvine.
 
[quote author="ElricSeven" date=1223213868]The Plaza's going to crash like all the rest of them. Can't someone out this guy?</blockquote>


What's your problem? Don't be an ass.



Although I haven't had the time to pour through all the insightful analysis on this forum, I'm just a little weary about extending a similar analysis for the irvine cookie-cutter neighborhood market to a new product that has not proven success or failure (arguably). I'm sure what everyone is saying about the irvine market applies right now as a general matter, but the fact that the Plaza continues to sell (although at a much slower pace, despite this market - both resells and 3000), shows people are still willing to pay these prices, and can weather the difficulties in obtaining financing.



At most there are only two viable high-rise projects in OC - Marquee and the Plaza. It appears the others are on hold. The Marquee's failure can be pointed to specific things about that development. Someone pointed out earlier in the thread that regardless of how one wants to differentiate the Plaza from the Marquee (in terms of quality, location, restrictions on purchases by investors), they are essentially the same product and the failure of the Marquee means a similar fate to the Plaza. While I have zero stake in the Plaza, I appreciate it because I've visited it, and have been impressed by the work of the developers (who are well regarded in the industry). The Plaza certainly has a number of shortcomings, particular price for units, HOAs, and the fact it is out of place in Irvine. Despite it being tagged as "urban living," there is nothing urban about it except for the fact that it is in a building more than 4 stories high. From what I hear, the parking would be annoying too. Imagine being the schmuck that is deeded parking spaces in the bottom floor. That poor person has to round the structure 4-5 times just to get in and out of his/her space.



The point I keep coming to is that this product is for a very specific market. If supply remains low (i.e. Astoria, Skyline, and whatever else is planned doesn't finish in the near future, and don't end up being "high end" as originally planned), you'll have a limited availability for a limited market. I'm wondering, at least in the long run (5-10 years), whether that could sustain prices in this sort of complex. I don't know. This isn't my area of expertise. I apologize if I sound like a shill for the Plaza. I have nothing to do with them. The place just continues to intrigue me. Besides, I need a break from the threads about Quail Hill and Turtle whatever.
 
[quote author="JLegend" date=1223215284][quote author="ElricSeven" date=1223213868]The Plaza's going to crash like all the rest of them. Can't someone out this guy?</blockquote>


What's your problem? Don't be an ass.



Although I haven't had the time to pour through all the insightful analysis on this forum, I'm just a little weary about extending a similar analysis for the irvine cookie-cutter neighborhood market to a new product that has not proven success or failure (arguably). I'm sure what everyone is saying about the irvine market applies right now as a general matter, but the fact that the Plaza continues to sell (although at a much slower pace, despite this market - both resells and 3000), shows people are still willing to pay these prices, and can weather the difficulties in obtaining financing.



At most there are only two viable high-rise projects in OC - Marquee and the Plaza. It appears the others are on hold. The Marquee's failure can be pointed to specific things about that development. Someone pointed out earlier in the thread that regardless of how one wants to differentiate the Plaza from the Marquee (in terms of quality, location, restrictions on purchases by investors), they are essentially the same product and the failure of the Marquee means a similar fate to the Plaza. While I have zero stake in the Plaza, I appreciate it because I've visited it, and have been impressed by the work of the developers (who are well regarded in the industry). The Plaza certainly has a number of shortcomings, particular price for units, HOAs, and the fact it is out of place in Irvine. Despite it being tagged as "urban living," there is nothing urban about it except for the fact that it is in a building more than 4 stories high. From what I hear, the parking would be annoying too. Imagine being the schmuck that is deeded parking spaces in the bottom floor. That poor person has to round the structure 4-5 times just to get in and out of his/her space.



The point I keep coming to is that this product is for a very specific market. If supply remains low (i.e. Astoria, Skyline, and whatever else is planned doesn't finish in the near future, and don't end up being "high end" as originally planned), you'll have a limited availability for a limited market. I'm wondering, at least in the long run (5-10 years), whether that could sustain prices in this sort of complex. I don't know. This isn't my area of expertise. I apologize if I sound like a shill for the Plaza. I have nothing to do with them. The place just continues to intrigue me. Besides, I need a break from the threads about Quail Hill and Turtle whatever.</blockquote>


You do realize that the "difficulties in obtaining financing" is going to be a permanent condition? The type of financing required to pay these prices is the toxic variety that will never be made available again. There is no weathering this storm. Plus, you are probably overestimating the financial solvency of those who bought there. Everyone was using toxic financing. It is only a matter of time before these people implode and dump properties on the market. Since future buyers will not be able to bid anywhere near as much, prices will fall precipitously. This may be an intriguing development to you, but it is not "different" and prices there will crash very hard before we reach a point of price stability.
 
[quote author="JLegend" date=1223215284][quote author="ElricSeven" date=1223213868]The Plaza's going to crash like all the rest of them. Can't someone out this guy?</blockquote>


What's your problem? Don't be an ass.



Although I haven't had the time to pour through all the insightful analysis on this forum, I'm just a little weary about extending a similar analysis for the irvine cookie-cutter neighborhood market to a new product that has not proven success or failure (arguably). I'm sure what everyone is saying about the irvine market applies right now as a general matter, but the fact that the Plaza continues to sell (although at a much slower pace, despite this market - both resells and 3000), shows people are still willing to pay these prices, and can weather the difficulties in obtaining financing.



At most there are only two viable high-rise projects in OC - Marquee and the Plaza. It appears the others are on hold. The Marquee's failure can be pointed to specific things about that development. Someone pointed out earlier in the thread that regardless of how one wants to differentiate the Plaza from the Marquee (in terms of quality, location, restrictions on purchases by investors), they are essentially the same product and the failure of the Marquee means a similar fate to the Plaza. While I have zero stake in the Plaza, I appreciate it because I've visited it, and have been impressed by the work of the developers (who are well regarded in the industry). The Plaza certainly has a number of shortcomings, particular price for units, HOAs, and the fact it is out of place in Irvine. Despite it being tagged as "urban living," there is nothing urban about it except for the fact that it is in a building more than 4 stories high. From what I hear, the parking would be annoying too. Imagine being the schmuck that is deeded parking spaces in the bottom floor. That poor person has to round the structure 4-5 times just to get in and out of his/her space.



The point I keep coming to is that this product is for a very specific market. If supply remains low (i.e. Astoria, Skyline, and whatever else is planned doesn't finish in the near future, and don't end up being "high end" as originally planned), you'll have a limited availability for a limited market. I'm wondering, at least in the long run (5-10 years), whether that could sustain prices in this sort of complex. I don't know. This isn't my area of expertise. I apologize if I sound like a shill for the Plaza. I have nothing to do with them. The place just continues to intrigue me. Besides, I need a break from the threads about Quail Hill and Turtle whatever.</blockquote>


In the end, there will be no exceptions to the crash. It strains credulity to think that anyone would think this place is going anywhere but down. We're in a massive downturn, the tide is going out every ship is going to drop. Hence my suspicions.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223246331]You do realize that the "difficulties in obtaining financing" is going to be a permanent condition? The type of financing required to pay these prices is the toxic variety that will never be made available again. There is no weathering this storm. </blockquote>


[quote author="ElricSeven" date=1223259737]

In the end, there will be no exceptions to the crash. It strains credulity to think that anyone would think this place is going anywhere but down. We're in a massive downturn, the tide is going out every ship is going to drop. Hence my suspicions.</blockquote>


I couldn't agree more. To argue otherwise is insanity or will result in me posting more pictures of bong smoking. These discussions of pricing ratios or cap rates are simply whistling past the graveyard.



The only topic of debate is/should be "How bad will it get before it quits?"
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223246331][quote author="JLegend" date=1223215284][quote author="ElricSeven" date=1223213868]The Plaza's going to crash like all the rest of them. Can't someone out this guy?</blockquote>


What's your problem? Don't be an ass.



Although I haven't had the time to pour through all the insightful analysis on this forum, I'm just a little weary about extending a similar analysis for the irvine cookie-cutter neighborhood market to a new product that has not proven success or failure (arguably). I'm sure what everyone is saying about the irvine market applies right now as a general matter, but the fact that the Plaza continues to sell (although at a much slower pace, despite this market - both resells and 3000), shows people are still willing to pay these prices, and can weather the difficulties in obtaining financing.



At most there are only two viable high-rise projects in OC - Marquee and the Plaza. It appears the others are on hold. The Marquee's failure can be pointed to specific things about that development. Someone pointed out earlier in the thread that regardless of how one wants to differentiate the Plaza from the Marquee (in terms of quality, location, restrictions on purchases by investors), they are essentially the same product and the failure of the Marquee means a similar fate to the Plaza. While I have zero stake in the Plaza, I appreciate it because I've visited it, and have been impressed by the work of the developers (who are well regarded in the industry). The Plaza certainly has a number of shortcomings, particular price for units, HOAs, and the fact it is out of place in Irvine. Despite it being tagged as "urban living," there is nothing urban about it except for the fact that it is in a building more than 4 stories high. From what I hear, the parking would be annoying too. Imagine being the schmuck that is deeded parking spaces in the bottom floor. That poor person has to round the structure 4-5 times just to get in and out of his/her space.



The point I keep coming to is that this product is for a very specific market. If supply remains low (i.e. Astoria, Skyline, and whatever else is planned doesn't finish in the near future, and don't end up being "high end" as originally planned), you'll have a limited availability for a limited market. I'm wondering, at least in the long run (5-10 years), whether that could sustain prices in this sort of complex. I don't know. This isn't my area of expertise. I apologize if I sound like a shill for the Plaza. I have nothing to do with them. The place just continues to intrigue me. Besides, I need a break from the threads about Quail Hill and Turtle whatever.</blockquote>


You do realize that the "difficulties in obtaining financing" is going to be a permanent condition? The type of financing required to pay these prices is the toxic variety that will never be made available again. There is no weathering this storm. Plus, you are probably overestimating the financial solvency of those who bought there. Everyone was using toxic financing. It is only a matter of time before these people implode and dump properties on the market. Since future buyers will not be able to bid anywhere near as much, prices will fall precipitously. This may be an intriguing development to you, but it is not "different" and prices there will crash very hard before we reach a point of price stability.</blockquote>
Agreed...there will be pain in the Plaza.
 
"To argue otherwise is insanity or will result in me posting more pictures of bong smoking."



Paranoia and laziness have been two great attributes to have in CA real estate in the past 20 years.
 
[quote author="Hormiguero" date=1223260672]Paranoia and laziness have been two great attributes to have in CA real estate in the past 20 years.</blockquote>


Not sure I agree with that. I'll give you maybe the past 2 years, but this bubble [strike]may have been[/strike] was probably the biggest bull run of our lifetime. Many did very well for themselves, and it is not to be overlooked.



"It's better to be lucky than good."
 
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1223261261][quote author="Hormiguero" date=1223260672]Paranoia and laziness have been two great attributes to have in CA real estate in the past 20 years.</blockquote>


Not sure I agree with that. I'll give you maybe the past 2 years, but this bubble [strike]may have been[/strike] was probably the biggest bull run of our lifetime. Many did very well for themselves, and it is not to be overlooked.



"It's better to be lucky than good."</blockquote>


The perspective of the questioner was whether it's worth buying in the Plaza, not if someone actually made money in the RE boom. Actually, I bet no one in the Plaza makes anything when this is said and done. Owners in 2000 of homes might have something left.
 
[quote author="ElricSeven" date=1223262945][quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1223261261][quote author="Hormiguero" date=1223260672]Paranoia and laziness have been two great attributes to have in CA real estate in the past 20 years.</blockquote>


Not sure I agree with that. I'll give you maybe the past 2 years, but this bubble [strike]may have been[/strike] was probably the biggest bull run of our lifetime. Many did very well for themselves, and it is not to be overlooked.



"It's better to be lucky than good."</blockquote>


The perspective of the questioner was whether it's worth buying in the Plaza, not if someone actually made money in the RE boom. Actually, I bet no one in the Plaza makes anything when this is said and done. Owners in 2000 of homes might have something left.</blockquote>


I agree. Purchasers of the Plaza will be lucky to get even close to their original purchase price. But I suppose if they enjoy their life, what the project has to offer, and can stomach this risk and not have it affect their retirement planning, then this loss is purely monetary and might very well be balanced by the "quality of life" value they perceive buying at the Plaza offers.



But I've always agreed that the Plaza is not where you put your money if you want to make money. It's just not going to happen. And I accept that buying there now will result in a loss that most people cannot bear, consistent with what's happening throughout the real estate market now. I also appreciate peoples' points here is that the main problem is, people do not calculate this risk in the first place, thus leading to the "pain" these people will see.
 
People were saying these condos wouldn't go below $600k. Does anyone know how these towers are doing compared to the Marquee?
 
Opus West "pondering" bk.



<a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/06/08/developer-of-oc-high-rise-condos-ponders-bankruptcy/24951/">http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/06/08/developer-of-oc-high-rise-condos-ponders-bankruptcy/24951/</a>
 
[quote author="tkaratz" date=1244530824]Opus West "pondering" bk.



<a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/06/08/developer-of-oc-high-rise-condos-ponders-bankruptcy/24951/">http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/06/08/developer-of-oc-high-rise-condos-ponders-bankruptcy/24951/</a></blockquote>


I want to their offices last December to give them some marketing materials about our firm. I walked in to an empty office they had abandoned. I knew they were cutting costs, but I had no idea it was that bad for them.
 
As most know now that Opus West did file for BK. So... now if you are seriously interested 3000 The Plaza, <a href="http://www.opuswestproperties.com/">you can bid on special purpose entity for an 85% interest in the remaining 55 units</a>. There was a nice little ad today in the WSJ on it. <a href="http://www.brewaz.com/story_recent.php?id=7239">At least 3000 The Plaza hasn't been scheduled for the trustee auction like some of their AZ properties</a>. At least not yet. I wonder if we will know of the auction results?
 
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