effenheimer_IHB
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What do you think? Only a 20bp spread as of today.
2yr-10yr re-inverts before the end of the year?
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effenheimer_IHB
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<p>...which means we're about due now. But I'm seeing long yields creep down and I'm wondering just how low they'll go.</p>
<p>This being such a strange economic cycle, I'm wondering if we won't see a re-inversion. If the economy slows down but the fed funds rate is held (possibly due to dollar weakness), I could forsee another inversion happening in the not too distant future. </p>
<p>This being such a strange economic cycle, I'm wondering if we won't see a re-inversion. If the economy slows down but the fed funds rate is held (possibly due to dollar weakness), I could forsee another inversion happening in the not too distant future. </p>
IrvineRenter_IHB
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I think part of the reason for the inversion -- at least the most recent one which did not signal a recession -- is the excess liquidity in the worlds financial markets.
If it happens again, I think economic conditions are pointing to recession.
If it happens again, I think economic conditions are pointing to recession.
effenheimer_IHB
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So you feel that the inversion earlier this year may have been a false signal?
IrvineRenter_IHB
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Yes, the 10 year should not be trading at those levels. It was bid up because there were not any other places for people to park the money. When you can borrow at 1/2% in Japan and invest it at 6% over here, you will go out and borrow billions of yen if they will let you. Japan was willing to let you. All asset classes are overpriced because of the carry trade and the flood of liquidity worldwide. That is also one of the reasons you are seeing 3%-4% cap rates on income properties (that and people are betting on appreciation).
When the inversion signals a recession is because investors are looking to move money out of stocks and into a fixed-rate alternative. Better to make 5% than lose 20%. This is why bond markets often rally when stocks begin their implosion (IMO, it is why the short-term T-Bills have rallied in the last couple of weeks.)
That is why I think the first one was a head-fake, and this one may be for real. If the stock market sells off significantly by the end of the year, the yield curve on treasuries will almost certainly invert.
When the inversion signals a recession is because investors are looking to move money out of stocks and into a fixed-rate alternative. Better to make 5% than lose 20%. This is why bond markets often rally when stocks begin their implosion (IMO, it is why the short-term T-Bills have rallied in the last couple of weeks.)
That is why I think the first one was a head-fake, and this one may be for real. If the stock market sells off significantly by the end of the year, the yield curve on treasuries will almost certainly invert.