Being in SV and back at the office and having some of the biggest names out there as my customers provides some perspective that may not be available to the general public:
1. WFH pendulum is reversing - hard. The biggest companies are building tons of new office space here. No HR love for remote workers when considering promotions. I've seen this pendulum swing back and forth 3-4 times over the past 2 decades. You can survive but thriving with promotions to sustain that career becomes much more challenging and I've seen very few that can make it work.
2. Pay attention to recent earnings and you'll see many companies getting squeezed by material constraints - less revenue = less operating margin = less hiring.
3. With entry level wages going through the roof we are seeing the beginnings of the price/wage spiral the Fed spent decades trying to contain. They have been wrong at every juncture since Greenspan took the chair, and will very likely be forced to adjust to market reality sooner than they want. That will drain huge $$$ from all other asset classes as LL pointed out.
I don't WANT any of this to happen, but I've learned enough since 2006/7 leading up to the last debt bubble that the tea leaves are starting to take shape.
Again, the Fed is not the BOJ and America is not Japan, where trillions are parked in 0.005% yielding postal savings accounts as not losing money has been the mindset since their debt bubble exploded 30 yrs ago.
There are so many roles in Marketing/Corp services etc that will be culled just like they were post-2000 and post-2007/8. People will be forced to sell. I had a colleague in Austin in 2003 have to bring a check to the closing table when he sold in order to move for his new role. We'll see that again.
1. WFH pendulum is reversing - hard. The biggest companies are building tons of new office space here. No HR love for remote workers when considering promotions. I've seen this pendulum swing back and forth 3-4 times over the past 2 decades. You can survive but thriving with promotions to sustain that career becomes much more challenging and I've seen very few that can make it work.
2. Pay attention to recent earnings and you'll see many companies getting squeezed by material constraints - less revenue = less operating margin = less hiring.
3. With entry level wages going through the roof we are seeing the beginnings of the price/wage spiral the Fed spent decades trying to contain. They have been wrong at every juncture since Greenspan took the chair, and will very likely be forced to adjust to market reality sooner than they want. That will drain huge $$$ from all other asset classes as LL pointed out.
I don't WANT any of this to happen, but I've learned enough since 2006/7 leading up to the last debt bubble that the tea leaves are starting to take shape.
Again, the Fed is not the BOJ and America is not Japan, where trillions are parked in 0.005% yielding postal savings accounts as not losing money has been the mindset since their debt bubble exploded 30 yrs ago.
There are so many roles in Marketing/Corp services etc that will be culled just like they were post-2000 and post-2007/8. People will be forced to sell. I had a colleague in Austin in 2003 have to bring a check to the closing table when he sold in order to move for his new role. We'll see that again.
