2011

[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1253223281][quote author="graphrix" date=1253205716]Okay just for an easy count:



Monday - 35

Tuesday - 34

Wednesday - 39



There are A LOT currently scheduled tomorrow. It is still possible to break the 200 mark for the week.</blockquote>


Two hundred for the week isn't very much. We've had 500-1,500 a month for almost three years.</blockquote>


No we haven't.



We had 426 repos for all of 2006, an average of 35 per month.

We had 4583 for all of 2007, an average of 381 a month.

In 2008, we had 11756, an average of 979 a month.

and this year, for the first 8 months, we've had 5788, an average of 753 a month.



That's barely over a year and a half. And at 979 a month in 2008, let's think about the impact on the market.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1253225889][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1253223281][quote author="graphrix" date=1253205716]Okay just for an easy count:



Monday - 35

Tuesday - 34

Wednesday - 39



There are A LOT currently scheduled tomorrow. It is still possible to break the 200 mark for the week.</blockquote>


Two hundred for the week isn't very much. We've had 500-1,500 a month for almost three years.</blockquote>


No we haven't.



We had 426 repos for all of 2006, an average of 35 per month.

We had 4583 for all of 2007, an average of 381 a month.

In 2008, we had 11756, an average of 979 a month.

and this year, for the first 8 months, we've had 5788, an average of 753 a month.



That's barely over a year and a half. And at 979 a month in 2008, let's think about the impact on the market.</blockquote>


So call it two years at 500-1,500 a month. That was the range, not the average. Look it up.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1253229565][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1253225889][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1253223281][quote author="graphrix" date=1253205716]Okay just for an easy count:



Monday - 35

Tuesday - 34

Wednesday - 39



There are A LOT currently scheduled tomorrow. It is still possible to break the 200 mark for the week.</blockquote>


Two hundred for the week isn't very much. We've had 500-1,500 a month for almost three years.</blockquote>


No we haven't.



We had 426 repos for all of 2006, an average of 35 per month.

We had 4583 for all of 2007, an average of 381 a month.

In 2008, we had 11756, an average of 979 a month.

and this year, for the first 8 months, we've had 5788, an average of 753 a month.



That's barely over a year and a half. And at 979 a month in 2008, let's think about the impact on the market.</blockquote>


So call it two years at 500-1,500 a month. That was the range, not the average. Look it up.</blockquote>


<img src="http://donstuff.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/circular-reasoning1.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1253229565][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1253225889][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1253223281][quote author="graphrix" date=1253205716]Okay just for an easy count:



Monday - 35

Tuesday - 34

Wednesday - 39



There are A LOT currently scheduled tomorrow. It is still possible to break the 200 mark for the week.</blockquote>


Two hundred for the week isn't very much. We've had 500-1,500 a month for almost three years.</blockquote>


No we haven't.



We had 426 repos for all of 2006, an average of 35 per month.

We had 4583 for all of 2007, an average of 381 a month.

In 2008, we had 11756, an average of 979 a month.

and this year, for the first 8 months, we've had 5788, an average of 753 a month.



That's barely over a year and a half. And at 979 a month in 2008, let's think about the impact on the market.</blockquote>


So call it two years at 500-1,500 a month. That was the range, not the average. Look it up.</blockquote>


Have you ever heard the expression. "Talking out your arse". I mean WTF. Are you reading or thinking the slightest bit when you post your drivel on this forum ?



I also see you doing this same exact thing over on the Blog. Looks like IR has almost reached his limit with you as well. And usually he is a VERY patient man.
 
[quote author="bltserv" date=1253233438][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1253229565][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1253225889][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1253223281][quote author="graphrix" date=1253205716]Okay just for an easy count:



Monday - 35

Tuesday - 34

Wednesday - 39



There are A LOT currently scheduled tomorrow. It is still possible to break the 200 mark for the week.</blockquote>


Two hundred for the week isn't very much. We've had 500-1,500 a month for almost three years.</blockquote>


No we haven't.



We had 426 repos for all of 2006, an average of 35 per month.

We had 4583 for all of 2007, an average of 381 a month.

In 2008, we had 11756, an average of 979 a month.

and this year, for the first 8 months, we've had 5788, an average of 753 a month.



That's barely over a year and a half. And at 979 a month in 2008, let's think about the impact on the market.</blockquote>


So call it two years at 500-1,500 a month. That was the range, not the average. Look it up.</blockquote>


Have you ever heard the expression. "Talking out your arse". I mean WTF. Are you reading or thinking the slightest bit when you post your drivel on this forum ?



I also see you doing this same exact thing over on the Blog. Looks like IR has almost reached his limit with you as well. And usually he is a VERY patient man.</blockquote>


Are you serious? There were 500-1,500 foreclosures a month for the past two years. I mean WTF.
 
[quote author="trrenter" date=1253232752][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1253229565][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1253225889][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1253223281][quote author="graphrix" date=1253205716]Okay just for an easy count:



Monday - 35

Tuesday - 34

Wednesday - 39



There are A LOT currently scheduled tomorrow. It is still possible to break the 200 mark for the week.</blockquote>


Two hundred for the week isn't very much. We've had 500-1,500 a month for almost three years.</blockquote>


No we haven't.



We had 426 repos for all of 2006, an average of 35 per month.

We had 4583 for all of 2007, an average of 381 a month.

In 2008, we had 11756, an average of 979 a month.

and this year, for the first 8 months, we've had 5788, an average of 753 a month.



That's barely over a year and a half. And at 979 a month in 2008, let's think about the impact on the market.</blockquote>


So call it two years at 500-1,500 a month. That was the range, not the average. Look it up.</blockquote>


<img src="http://donstuff.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/circular-reasoning1.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>




Do you know what the meaning of circular reasoning is?
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1253225889][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1253223281][quote author="graphrix" date=1253205716]Okay just for an easy count:



Monday - 35

Tuesday - 34

Wednesday - 39



There are A LOT currently scheduled tomorrow. It is still possible to break the 200 mark for the week.</blockquote>


Two hundred for the week isn't very much. We've had 500-1,500 a month for almost three years.</blockquote>


No we haven't.



We had 426 repos for all of 2006, an average of 35 per month.

We had 4583 for all of 2007, an average of 381 a month.

In 2008, we had 11756, an average of 979 a month.

and this year, for the first 8 months, we've had 5788, an average of 753 a month.



That's barely over a year and a half. And at 979 a month in 2008, let's think about the impact on the market.</blockquote>


Regardless, it is still above historical averages and still breaking the 95 and 96 records. And... the trend is increasing.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1253235032][quote author="trrenter" date=1253232752][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1253229565][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1253225889][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1253223281][quote author="graphrix" date=1253205716]Okay just for an easy count:



Monday - 35

Tuesday - 34

Wednesday - 39



There are A LOT currently scheduled tomorrow. It is still possible to break the 200 mark for the week.</blockquote>


Two hundred for the week isn't very much. We've had 500-1,500 a month for almost three years.</blockquote>


No we haven't.



We had 426 repos for all of 2006, an average of 35 per month.

We had 4583 for all of 2007, an average of 381 a month.

In 2008, we had 11756, an average of 979 a month.

and this year, for the first 8 months, we've had 5788, an average of 753 a month.



That's barely over a year and a half. And at 979 a month in 2008, let's think about the impact on the market.</blockquote>


So call it two years at 500-1,500 a month. That was the range, not the average. Look it up.</blockquote>


<img src="http://donstuff.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/circular-reasoning1.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>




Do you know what the meaning of circular reasoning is?</blockquote>


Yes
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1253235082][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1253225889][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1253223281][quote author="graphrix" date=1253205716]Okay just for an easy count:



Monday - 35

Tuesday - 34

Wednesday - 39



There are A LOT currently scheduled tomorrow. It is still possible to break the 200 mark for the week.</blockquote>


Two hundred for the week isn't very much. We've had 500-1,500 a month for almost three years.</blockquote>


No we haven't.



We had 426 repos for all of 2006, an average of 35 per month.

We had 4583 for all of 2007, an average of 381 a month.

In 2008, we had 11756, an average of 979 a month.

and this year, for the first 8 months, we've had 5788, an average of 753 a month.



That's barely over a year and a half. And at 979 a month in 2008, let's think about the impact on the market.</blockquote>


Regardless, it is still above historical averages and still breaking the 95 and 96 records. And... the trend is increasing.</blockquote>
total foreclosures or % of homes?
 
Median Price and Repos per month for the last three years.

<img src="http://i580.photobucket.com/albums/ss248/No_Such_reality/ForeclosuresversusMedian.gif" alt="" />



For those counting, 14 months in the last 36 are below 500 foreclosures per month. In only six of the months is the rate at or above 1000 per month.



I'm done debating the definition of "is".



For anybody wondering, today's Repo count was 51. Week to date 162.
 
[quote author="stepping_up" date=1253263364][quote author="graphrix" date=1253235082][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1253225889][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1253223281][quote author="graphrix" date=1253205716]Okay just for an easy count:



Monday - 35

Tuesday - 34

Wednesday - 39



There are A LOT currently scheduled tomorrow. It is still possible to break the 200 mark for the week.</blockquote>


Two hundred for the week isn't very much. We've had 500-1,500 a month for almost three years.</blockquote>


No we haven't.



We had 426 repos for all of 2006, an average of 35 per month.

We had 4583 for all of 2007, an average of 381 a month.

In 2008, we had 11756, an average of 979 a month.

and this year, for the first 8 months, we've had 5788, an average of 753 a month.



That's barely over a year and a half. And at 979 a month in 2008, let's think about the impact on the market.</blockquote>


Regardless, it is still above historical averages and still breaking the 95 and 96 records. And... the trend is increasing.</blockquote>
total foreclosures or % of homes?</blockquote>


Both. Surprisingly, there really has been that much housing stock added since 96, so % of homes is higher than 95/96 if it is just slightly above the numbers from then.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1253270554]Median Price and Repos per month for the last three years.

<img src="http://i580.photobucket.com/albums/ss248/No_Such_reality/ForeclosuresversusMedian.gif" alt="" />



For those counting, 14 months in the last 36 are below 500 foreclosures per month. In only six of the months is the rate at or above 1000 per month.



I'm done debating the definition of "is".



For anybody wondering, today's Repo count was 51. Week to date 162.</blockquote>


That's a good chart. If the current upward trend continues and isn't just a seasonal thing, the median price in Oct. 09 will be hirer than it was in Oct. 08.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1253270554]For anybody wondering, today's Repo count was 51. Week to date 162.</blockquote>


We have 7 so far for the AM auctions. We need 31 from the PM auctions to break 200. It is possible with how many are scheduled at SA... we will see.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1253322186]That's a good chart. If the current upward trend continues and isn't just a seasonal thing, the median price in Oct. 09 will be <strong>[strike]hirer[/strike]</strong> higher than it was in Oct. 08.</blockquote>


You do understand that the reason why the median price has shifted up is because more expensive houses are selling, and that the actual price of the homes are not increasing regardless of that chart. I don't mean to be mean, but you do understand how to determine the median value?
 
Okay just for an easy count:



Monday - 35

Tuesday - 34

Wednesday - 40

Thursday - 56

Friday - 27



Total = 192



It is still too early for a true count for today, but I double checked and it looks like the 27 will hold. Damn... just 8 more foreclosures and I would have been right.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1253330186][quote author="Geotpf" date=1253322186]That's a good chart. If the current upward trend continues and isn't just a seasonal thing, the median price in Oct. 09 will be <strong>[strike]hirer[/strike]</strong> higher than it was in Oct. 08.</blockquote>


You do understand that the reason why the median price has shifted up is because more expensive houses are selling, and that the actual price of the homes are not increasing regardless of that chart. I don't mean to be mean, but you do understand how to determine the median value?</blockquote>


Here's the price/per square foot chart from Redfin:



<img src="http://i932.photobucket.com/albums/ad170/Geotpf/irvinemarkettrends.jpg" alt="" />



On this chart, prices per square foot have been about what they were at a year ago since April or so, with only a minor ($10/sq ft or so) dip below that between Sept. 08 and April 09. A year ago prices were $340ish/sq ft; today prices are $340ish/sq ft.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1253826714][quote author="graphrix" date=1253330186][quote author="Geotpf" date=1253322186]That's a good chart. If the current upward trend continues and isn't just a seasonal thing, the median price in Oct. 09 will be <strong>[strike]hirer[/strike]</strong> higher than it was in Oct. 08.</blockquote>


You do understand that the reason why the median price has shifted up is because more expensive houses are selling, and that the actual price of the homes are not increasing regardless of that chart. I don't mean to be mean, but you do understand how to determine the median value?</blockquote>


Here's the price/per square foot chart from Redfin:



<img src="http://i932.photobucket.com/albums/ad170/Geotpf/irvinemarkettrends.jpg" alt="" />



On this chart, prices per square foot have been about what they were at a year ago since April or so, with only a minor ($10/sq ft or so) dip below that between Sept. 08 and April 09. A year ago prices were $340ish/sq ft; today prices are $340ish/sq ft.</blockquote>


a square foot in shady costs more than a square foot in El Camino. Without adjusting for sales mix, this data point is useless. Actually, it is worse than useless, it is misleading...
 
Geotpf, graphrix, CapitalismWorks and all: Any thoughts on the Irvine Case Shiller numbers Ipo has compiled:

<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewreply/130232/">http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewreply/130232/</a>
 
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