2010 Woodbury/WB East New Home Collection Poll

Gohabsgo_IHB

Gohabsgo_IHB

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See this thread for discussion on <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/6445/P0/">2010 Woodbury/WB East New Home Collection</a>.



<a href="http://www.villagesofirvine.com/NewHomeCollection/main.aspx">Direct link to Villages of Irvine website</a>



<a href="http://www.ocregister.com/articles/irvine-homes-new-2610240-one-recovery">OCR Article 1</a>



<a href="http://headlines.ocregister.com/articles/new-47249-home-irvine.html">OCR Article 2</a>



As a measure of success, I'd use the following from OCR Article 2:



<blockquote>Company officials said they expect to take one and a half to two years to sell all 685 homes ? a modest number for that time frame, considering that 1,500 a year used to sell during better days. They're hoping the project will give the stalled Woodbury developments a shot in the arm.</blockquote>
 
I think it depends on the resale market and REO activity. The way it looks now with such low Irvine inventory and pent up demand for new construction, they will probably sell well. But if REO activity significantly picks up and supply rises dramatically, then downward price pressure from resale may hinder new home purchasing. That outlook is looking dim right now with Obama and the Fed artificially supporting the housing market and stretching out the bubble deflation over several years.
 
Considering that 685 in 18 months is only 30% of the typical 1,500 in 12 months, I can't imagine they won't sell out in that time period. If they were attempting to go full blast, there could be questions, but since it's such a modest number for the time period, they shouldn't have any trouble.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1256072935]Considering that 685 in 18 months is only 30% of the typical 1,500 in 12 months, I can't imagine they won't sell out in that time period. If they were attempting to go full blast, there could be questions, but since it's such a modest number for the time period, they shouldn't have any trouble.</blockquote>


Agreed, but there are other projects still unfinished in Woodbury and WE. Also, PS has a lot of projects underway that have been stagant for a while.



At some point they'll also start new projects North of Woodbury (Stonegate). However, I don't think Laguna Crossing or Orchard Hills will come in play within the next 18 months.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1256072935]Considering that 685 in 18 months is only 30% of the typical 1,500 in 12 months, I can't imagine they won't sell out in that time period. If they were attempting to go full blast, there could be questions, but since it's such a modest number for the time period, they shouldn't have any trouble.</blockquote>


Correction: That was 1500 homes sold during the good times i.e. 2004. OC will be lucky to see 1500 new homes sold this year, let alone in Irvine. They are truly hoping and praying that the economy bounces back because selling 685 homes with standing inventory, and other communities (Portola Springs) still selling, is going to make it a monumental task.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1256094954]Since TIC owns the land, they can just get really aggressive with pricing to meet their goals right?



Two for one sale in 2011!!</blockquote>


:coolsmile: Count me in!
 
Based on my understanding TIC is subcontracting out the build out of the homes so the homes will be owned by TIC? If that is the case, would TIC ensure that the quality of these homes is better than what the builder would normally build? Given that TIC would be the end target with their deeper pockets if something was wrong with the house?
 
[quote author="MovingBack" date=1256097068][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1256094954]Since TIC owns the land, they can just get really aggressive with pricing to meet their goals right?



Two for one sale in 2011!!</blockquote>


:coolsmile: Count me in!</blockquote>
You buy the first one, I'll take the second (free) one... heh.
 
What does everyone think about the interest rates in about 9 months to 1.5 year time frame

when most of these new homes start selling. To me it seems that the prices have been set

based on the current selling that is going on in Portola springs and Woodbury east.



Although the listed price range is much lower than the prices in 2005-2006 new homes

[Plan 3 La casella is low 700's compared to plan 3 serissa in northwood being mid/high 800's in 2005].

I still think whether they sell out will depend on interest rates and the New sub prime (FHA) rates.



If they are flexible with prices as rates go higher then they may meet the goal of these 685

homes in 18-24 months easily.



Personally I think all the respective homes are atleast 100-150 K higher than what I would like.

But thats just me. I saw quail hill/ the new section of northwood/ woodbury/ Portola springs/ woodbury

east all getting built and passed on them thinking prices were too high. Untill government

stops artificial pumping up of the market I guess I'll be waitin4ever.
 
[quote author="witin4ever" date=1256102399]What does everyone think about the interest rates in about 9 months to 1.5 year time frame

when most of these new homes start selling. To me it seems that the prices have been set

based on the current selling that is going on in Portola springs and Woodbury east.



Although the listed price range is much lower than the prices in 2005-2006 new homes

[Plan 3 La casella is low 700's compared to plan 3 serissa in northwood being mid/high 800's in 2005].

I still think whether they sell out will depend on interest rates and the New sub prime (FHA) rates.



If they are flexible with prices as rates go higher then they may meet the goal of these 685

homes in 18-24 months easily.



Personally I think all the respective homes are atleast 100-150 K higher than what I would like.

But thats just me. I saw quail hill/ the new section of northwood/ woodbury/ Portola springs/ woodbury

east all getting built and passed on them thinking prices were too high. Untill government

stops artificial pumping up of the market I guess I'll be waitin4ever.</blockquote>


Like I said in my previous post, Obama and Club Fed are not about to pull the rug out of the housing market. Not for a long time. They will probably extend all the unsuccessful mortgage reform programs and continue to keep rates artificially low until they see a soft landing for RE. All this really does is kick the can down the road, ensuring a slow and painful recovery.
 
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