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Of every city in our nation, I imagine that New York must be the one where it is most difficult to ignore the "it's different here" myth.

<p>"Vientos Plan2X is a 2-story DETACH townhome"</p> <p>My bad. I agree that probably bumps up the comp rents a bit.</p> <p>I gotta say, 1075 sf detached, brand new townhome for $450K seems like a smoking deal compared to most of the crap I see on the MLS for around that price. I can see why...

<p>If you decide to go "old school" and get a 30 year on a $405K loan at 6.25%, that is $2500, plus $200 a month in down payment opportunity cost. Plus the $1000 Tax/Mello/HOA gets us to $3700/month.</p> <p>So yes, this is not quite double, even before tax breaks. But it's in the ballpark, so...

<p>"Double" is meant as a rough approximation of the overall market. Some places are more and some less; the fact that you can find some deals that are less does not invalidate the statement. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dichotomy">No hyperbole or sinister motives...

<p>"new homes set the trend for prices of the overall market because so many are being built/sold in Irvine"</p> <p>Do you have some data for this? I'm not trying to be sarcastic or anything; I really am curious. For OC as a whole new home sales are about one sixth of the total. Like you, I...

<p>Variants of this theme have come up a lot on this forum. Basically the template is as follows:</p> <p>Premise: People of catagory X are willing to pay any price to buy homes in location Y.</p> <p>Conclusion: Therefore, prices in location Y will always be high.</p> <p>X is usually some...

<p>IrvineRenter and CK made exactly the point I was trying to (only better). The key is what you define the "market" to be. If you only are talking about <em>new homes in Irvine</em>, then yes TIC has enormous pricing power. But is <em>new homes in Irvine</em> a useful category to be talking...

<p>It seems like you are arguing that TIC is engaged in anticompetitive monopoly behavior, not price fixing. This would also be not true. Of all home sales in Orange County last month only one sixth were new home sales. Now the ratio might be a little higher here in Irvine, but even so I'd bet...

<p>Hold on a minute. Controling a good share of the market, and holding out for premium prices, is not price fixing. Price fixing involves collusion between entities who would normally be competitors. This clearly does not apply to the relationship between Irvine Company and the developers it...

<p>"That's why I dont disagree that waiting for the next bottom can be the right decision for some people."</p> <p>You're right red. For some people its better to wait for value. Other people gotta have it now and are willing to pay. To each his own.</p> <p>I like the direction this is...

<p>IIIrvine,</p> <p>No, I didn't cherry pick the examples. That being said it is doubtful that the 13 I found are anywhere near all of the homes that fall into the category I was looking for. They just happen to be all the ones that I found using zillow's interface. I'm sure there are much...

<p>Truely amazing numbers. We still lag San Diego by quite a bit, but Riverside looks like it really turned on a dime. It's gonna be bloody out there. My Mom lives in Perris, and they are building new 350K homes all around her. She talks to her neighboors, and they all make less than 40K per...

<p>As a statistic, the median home price <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/06/business/06leonhardt.html?">can</a> <a href="http://piggington.com/what_the_median_does_not_tell_you">be</a> <a href="http://www.kauaihomesales.com/real-estate-headlines.htm">misleading.</a></p> <p>Taking a cue...

5 is not exactly a hot market. I've heard from <a href="http://www.bubbleinfo.com/">one realtor</a> that 3 is considered to be a pretty healthy market. This time last year it was a little over 3, and prices didn't rise much in 2006.

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<p>Red, you seem like a smart and thoughtful guy. But don't you see the problem with what you just said? If I may paraphrase you:</p> <p>"When I look at the facts, I can see a good argument for why prices will decline considerably. However I prefer to trust my anecdotal experience which seems...

<p>For what it's worth, I spotted this on another housing blog today. He didn't site his source but it looks like Dataquick LA Times charts.</p> <p> ORANGECOUNTY SINGLE-FAMILY RESALE HOUSES...

Great job IrvineRenter. Way to represent!

There <strong>are </strong>people in Irvine who can comfortably afford a 700K house. The problem is that almost all such people are likely in the top 15-20% of income earners, whereas a 700K house is about a median quality house. Call me greedy, but if I was in the top tier of income for Irvine...

<p>Red, you forgot to include the opportunity cost of down-payment (around $600/month in a 5% savings account). Also, how do you get a $1200 tax savings on $2800 in interest? That's 43%; seems a bit high. Your $3000 owner-equivalent rent seems about right though.</p> <p>In any case, I think...