Author Topic: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…  (Read 312366 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2944
  • -Received: 2297
  • Posts: 11281
  • Gender: Male
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #1095 on: June 05, 2022, 10:04:31 PM »
And here are some charts for closed sales, active listings, median prices, and days-on-market (DOM) to show what has been happening through May 2022...
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA DRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!
Have license, will travel!

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline OCtoSV

  • Yearning for 949 / 714
  • **
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 89
  • -Received: 85
  • Posts: 451
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #1096 on: June 06, 2022, 11:31:17 AM »
As always, thanks for the time you put into publishing and analyzing the data.

The rapid increase in Irvine inventory to 82 SFR listings <=$2M tells me sellers realize they missed the market and are very scared of rising rates. Irvine has a large contingent of boomers and that inventory will balloon in the next 24 months as they look to escape CA. Sure, the market for new construction will remain strong given certain buyer demographics only wanting new construction but resale SFRs will drop precipitously, especially now that the era of remote work is ending with a bang.

I just noticed several 6 figure price reductions in my neighborhood this morning, heavy with boomers,  so SV is not immune.

I heard a bank economist this weekend talking about deposit risk applying additional upward pressure on mortgage rates, and without the Fed buying any and all paper I anticipate credit drying up as well for all but the most pristine W2 buyers.

I stand by my 2023 predictions.

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2944
  • -Received: 2297
  • Posts: 11281
  • Gender: Male
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #1097 on: June 06, 2022, 01:07:45 PM »
As always, thanks for the time you put into publishing and analyzing the data.

The rapid increase in Irvine inventory to 82 SFR listings <=$2M tells me sellers realize they missed the market and are very scared of rising rates. Irvine has a large contingent of boomers and that inventory will balloon in the next 24 months as they look to escape CA. Sure, the market for new construction will remain strong given certain buyer demographics only wanting new construction but resale SFRs will drop precipitously, especially now that the era of remote work is ending with a bang.

I just noticed several 6 figure price reductions in my neighborhood this morning, heavy with boomers,  so SV is not immune.

I heard a bank economist this weekend talking about deposit risk applying additional upward pressure on mortgage rates, and without the Fed buying any and all paper I anticipate credit drying up as well for all but the most pristine W2 buyers.

I stand by my 2023 predictions.

There are some "wishful" sellers who are looking to cash in big gains from their purchases in the past 12-24 months which won't happen.  Those sellers will be disappointed and those listings will come off the board once the cold slap of reality kicks in.  Real estate is slowing down everywhere and more so outside of Irvine.
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA DRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!
Have license, will travel!

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline Compressed-Village

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 390
  • -Received: 347
  • Posts: 2489
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #1098 on: June 07, 2022, 09:14:07 AM »
Thanks for detail analysis USC. I like it best when there is a balance market. The way to get more balance is higher rate, I hope the FED going to continue to do the right thing.

Perhaps there are many other political factors that our FED and government HAVE to balance with internal to United State and dealing with other geopolitical abroad with our foes and friends alike that their decisions arrive to where they are in the past two years. That part I don't know. What I do know is if we continue to go down the easy money path, we will end up a third world country. Loosing competitiveness, loosing leadership roles. And  have a huge inequalities exist that the two sides will be at each other throats. One demand more for free and one will do everything to keep everything. Not good.

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2944
  • -Received: 2297
  • Posts: 11281
  • Gender: Male
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #1099 on: June 07, 2022, 04:23:44 PM »
Thanks for detail analysis USC. I like it best when there is a balance market. The way to get more balance is higher rate, I hope the FED going to continue to do the right thing.

Perhaps there are many other political factors that our FED and government HAVE to balance with internal to United State and dealing with other geopolitical abroad with our foes and friends alike that their decisions arrive to where they are in the past two years. That part I don't know. What I do know is if we continue to go down the easy money path, we will end up a third world country. Loosing competitiveness, loosing leadership roles. And  have a huge inequalities exist that the two sides will be at each other throats. One demand more for free and one will do everything to keep everything. Not good.

Yeah, the free helicopter money had to stop because it was making things stupid not only on the real estate side but also on things like NFTs trading for stupid money.  There will be a little pain that we'll have to deal with shedding the excessive but as they say....no pain, no gain....in the longer term we'll all be better off getting back to normal.  I prefer a more balanced market and it's better for everyone involved including first time home buyers.
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA DRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!
Have license, will travel!

Offline huuur

  • Tourist
  • *
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 20
  • -Received: 3
  • Posts: 46
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #1100 on: June 07, 2022, 07:01:28 PM »
I I am now seeing highest number of homes for sale in Eastwood in the last 6 months. Prices are all high...will be interesting to see if there will be any price cuts. Smallest Delano still at 1.15M.

Speaking of the increased inventory in Eastwood,

This 3003 sqft SFH sold for $2.32M in 2022/03
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/108-Meander-92620/home/110016824

But 2 same models sold for $2.18M and $2.23M in 2022/05~06
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/118-Meander-92602/home/110292408
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/126-Pewter-92620/home/112724494

Is this a signal of price decline in Irvine?

Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2944
  • -Received: 2297
  • Posts: 11281
  • Gender: Male
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #1101 on: June 07, 2022, 07:21:40 PM »
I I am now seeing highest number of homes for sale in Eastwood in the last 6 months. Prices are all high...will be interesting to see if there will be any price cuts. Smallest Delano still at 1.15M.

Speaking of the increased inventory in Eastwood,

This 3003 sqft SFH sold for $2.32M in 2022/03
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/108-Meander-92620/home/110016824

But 2 same models sold for $2.18M and $2.23M in 2022/05~06
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/118-Meander-92602/home/110292408
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/126-Pewter-92620/home/112724494

Is this a signal of price decline in Irvine?


Need to see interior pictures to really compare apples to apples but yes I think pricing has peaked for now.
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA DRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!
Have license, will travel!

Offline Irvinehomeseeker

  • O.C. Resident
  • ***
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 118
  • -Received: 63
  • Posts: 712
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #1102 on: June 07, 2022, 07:31:18 PM »
I I am now seeing highest number of homes for sale in Eastwood in the last 6 months. Prices are all high...will be interesting to see if there will be any price cuts. Smallest Delano still at 1.15M.

Speaking of the increased inventory in Eastwood,

This 3003 sqft SFH sold for $2.32M in 2022/03
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/108-Meander-92620/home/110016824

But 2 same models sold for $2.18M and $2.23M in 2022/05~06
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/118-Meander-92602/home/110292408
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/126-Pewter-92620/home/112724494

Is this a signal of price decline in Irvine?


Need to see interior pictures to really compare apples to apples but yes I think pricing has peaked for now.

The Meander one sold below asking price...which is rare in the last year or so. But with no pictures of interior, I guess it was not in a great condition ...so sold below asking. But the seller made close to 1M given the 1.3M price of 2016@

Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2944
  • -Received: 2297
  • Posts: 11281
  • Gender: Male
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #1103 on: June 07, 2022, 08:08:52 PM »
I I am now seeing highest number of homes for sale in Eastwood in the last 6 months. Prices are all high...will be interesting to see if there will be any price cuts. Smallest Delano still at 1.15M.

Speaking of the increased inventory in Eastwood,

This 3003 sqft SFH sold for $2.32M in 2022/03
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/108-Meander-92620/home/110016824

But 2 same models sold for $2.18M and $2.23M in 2022/05~06
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/118-Meander-92602/home/110292408
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/126-Pewter-92620/home/112724494

Is this a signal of price decline in Irvine?


Need to see interior pictures to really compare apples to apples but yes I think pricing has peaked for now.

The Meander one sold below asking price...which is rare in the last year or so. But with no pictures of interior, I guess it was not in a great condition ...so sold below asking. But the seller made close to 1M given the 1.3M price of 2016@

Not necessary true, many agents remove pictures of the home before they change it to closed status on MLS.  I'd want to see the interior to see how all of the homes compared in terms of upgrades because those do matter.
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA DRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!
Have license, will travel!

Offline TestingIrvine

  • Yearning for 949 / 714
  • **
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2
  • -Received: 18
  • Posts: 108
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #1104 on: June 07, 2022, 10:22:37 PM »
I I am now seeing highest number of homes for sale in Eastwood in the last 6 months. Prices are all high...will be interesting to see if there will be any price cuts. Smallest Delano still at 1.15M.

Speaking of the increased inventory in Eastwood,

This 3003 sqft SFH sold for $2.32M in 2022/03
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/108-Meander-92620/home/110016824

But 2 same models sold for $2.18M and $2.23M in 2022/05~06
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/118-Meander-92602/home/110292408
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/126-Pewter-92620/home/112724494

Is this a signal of price decline in Irvine?

Selling above $720psf is not a price decline. LOL.
Selling below listing price is meaningless.

I’d panic if it gets to $650psf (aka October 2021 levels) in Eastwood.

Offline AccidentalAnalytics

  • Tourist
  • *
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2
  • -Received: 9
  • Posts: 40
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #1105 on: June 10, 2022, 12:24:29 PM »
To Cherry Picking Liar, going from 727/ft to 726/ft is a meltdown.

I I am now seeing highest number of homes for sale in Eastwood in the last 6 months. Prices are all high...will be interesting to see if there will be any price cuts. Smallest Delano still at 1.15M.

Speaking of the increased inventory in Eastwood,

This 3003 sqft SFH sold for $2.32M in 2022/03
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/108-Meander-92620/home/110016824

But 2 same models sold for $2.18M and $2.23M in 2022/05~06
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/118-Meander-92602/home/110292408
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/126-Pewter-92620/home/112724494

Is this a signal of price decline in Irvine?

Selling above $720psf is not a price decline. LOL.
Selling below listing price is meaningless.

I’d panic if it gets to $650psf (aka October 2021 levels) in Eastwood.

Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 818
  • -Received: 529
  • Posts: 2674
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #1106 on: June 22, 2022, 10:57:16 AM »
This is hilarious.  The California Association of Realtors announces a 31% decline in pending sales, then makes the bold prediction of 6% mortgages rates by the end of the year.  Two days later it happened.  Well, they sure nailed that one!

May home sales and price report
June 16, 2022   

Pending home sales declined 30.6 percent in May – the biggest drop since the first month of the pandemic – likely due to eroding affordability, rising mortgage rates and home prices, and the increased risk of a recession,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “The combined effect of the aforementioned factors resulted in a record increase in the average monthly mortgage payment to a typical home by more than 40 percent in May. With the Fed expected to raise rates further in the second half of the year, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage could surge past 6 percent by year's end and lead to more affordability challenges for potential homebuyers.”

https://www.car.org/en/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2022releases/may2022sales

Offline xlunaxoreox

  • Tourist
  • *
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 3
  • -Received: 1
  • Posts: 11
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #1107 on: July 01, 2022, 01:51:00 PM »
Looks like older homes like those in Woodbridge aren’t selling at all, any idea why?

Offline nosuchreality

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 155
  • -Received: 583
  • Posts: 2840
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #1108 on: July 01, 2022, 02:50:38 PM »
Looks like older homes like those in Woodbridge aren’t selling at all, any idea why?

Redfin shows 40 homes sold in the last month in Woodbridge.

They also show only 21 homes listed for sale.  1/3rd are over $1.5M

Only 8 units are under $1M.

Of those eight, only three have three+ bedrooms.  They’re all small, the largest being 1322sf, the smallest 1117sf.  The most expensive at $980K, appear nice and clean just circa 2000.  The middle $800K, straight out of HGTV flip trend and looks like gloss coat, IMHO with external appeal of 1980s apartment.  The cheapest at $720K is  vintage 80s build.   Clean and theoretically livable by the photos, but no meat on the bones for a rehabber.

The most expensive has a garage, two car.  The other two have a single carport spot.

Just my jaded eye.

As for those mid-range homes, it’s pack a half million for down and closing and still carry $8000 a month in PITA.


That doesn’t look slow to me, that looks like really slim pickings.


Offline superbobbay

  • Tourist
  • *
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 4
  • -Received: 4
  • Posts: 48
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #1109 on: July 03, 2022, 03:07:47 PM »
Just came back from an open house, wow there were like 10+ people inside. Housing slowdown? 🤣

As soon as prices drop a little, you get tons of interest. Other 4 bed houses nearby are going for 1.8 million.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/7-Oroville-92602/home/5812848

 

Talk Irvine Links

[Recent Posts]
[FAQ / Rules]

Site Supporters


Recent Posts

Re: coronavirus by akula1488
[Yesterday at 10:54:58 PM]


Re: coronavirus by qwerty
[Yesterday at 09:47:32 PM]


Re: The Hypocrisy of Electric Vehicles by zovall
[Yesterday at 08:30:38 PM]


Re: coronavirus by zovall
[Yesterday at 08:27:32 PM]


Re: The Hypocrisy of Electric Vehicles by StarmanMBA
[Yesterday at 06:01:22 PM]

SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2022, SimplePortal