Author Topic: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…  (Read 164800 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2340
  • -Received: 1855
  • Posts: 9067
  • Gender: Male
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #600 on: August 09, 2020, 01:34:08 PM »
Attached is the data for both June and July 2020. The data now confirms that the market has strengthened since the end of May as we saw the huge increase in July sales along with the fact that as of today (August 9th) there are now 396 Irvine properties in escrow which is up 111 homes or 39% from June 15th.

Sales in June 2020 were 190 or about 26% lower than June 2019 but that was because the market had began picking up in May and there's a lag between the pick-up and when sales actually close which we saw in July. The median price per SF dipped down to $471 in June from May 2020 and June 2019 but that seems to be a function of almost 170 of the closed sales being properties priced $1m or lower. Inventory at the end of June 2020 was actually down from May 2020 from 752 to 719 and down almost 30% from June 2019. The lower end of the market continued to have a serious lack of inventory.

Sales in July 2020 of 260 homes had a huge increase from June 2020 and was flat with sales in July 2019. The median price per SF rose back up to $479 in July from June 2020 and was up slightly from July 2019 ($477/sf). Inventory levels saw a large increase in July 2020 from June 2020 as sellers became more comfortable in listing their homes in July (probably due to the strengthening market) but these inventory levels were still down over 21% from July 2020.

I've been seeing a lot of strength in the market in the past month especially with properties going into escrow at a faster pace, including more multiple counteroffer situations. Lower rates are bringing more and more buyers into the market but there's a lack of inventory and that's leading to price increases. There seems to be a certain confidence amongst buyers that the worst man be over on the economic front and their jobs are safe. Many buyers are looking to upgrade their homes, including wanting a yard and/or office space to work from home. The pace of sales has also benefited the home builders in Irvine with increased sales at the CalPac and IrvinePac sales offices in Portola Springs and Orchard Hills.

On the interest rate front, rates continue to bleed lower especially in the conforming and jumbo conforming loan products. Buyers can now get 30-year purchase rates around 2.75% if they have strong credit and are putting 20-25% down. Jumbo 30-year rates are a bit higher around 3%. I've had a few buyers that opted to put slightly higher down payments so they can get to the jumbo conforming loan limit because it saved them 1/4% to 3/8% on their interest rate.

It'll be interesting to see how the rest of the summer going into the election plays out. I remember in 2016 the market had slowed down a bit due to the uncertainty related to the elections so it'll be interesting to see if this happens again this year. For now, the market looks to be very firm and good properties go into escrow very fast.
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA BRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2340
  • -Received: 1855
  • Posts: 9067
  • Gender: Male
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #601 on: August 09, 2020, 01:39:42 PM »
Here are the 5-year charts for active listings, closed sales, median per SF, and Days On Market (DOM) through July 2020.
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA BRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline zubs

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 72
  • -Received: 427
  • Posts: 2129
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #602 on: August 11, 2020, 01:14:17 PM »
Back in 2018, my renter said he sold his house & began renting because he was waiting for real estate to crater.  He signed a 1 year lease.
Guess who's still renting my house?

Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2340
  • -Received: 1855
  • Posts: 9067
  • Gender: Male
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #603 on: August 11, 2020, 03:18:03 PM »
Back in 2018, my renter said he sold his house & began renting because he was waiting for real estate to crater.  He signed a 1 year lease.
Guess who's still renting my house?

Irvine real estate would crater?  Uhhhh yeah, no so much. I have a friend who bought an attached condo in 2011 and was looking to upgrade in 2014 but told me that he'd wait until prices came down 10%.  Despite me offering him up first crack at my listings before they hit the market, he refused and said that he'd wait until there was a price decline. Well, he's still waiting for that price decline after prices are up 15-20% since 2014 while his wife is irritated. haha
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA BRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

Offline Irvinecommuter

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 596
  • -Received: 527
  • Posts: 5545
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #604 on: August 11, 2020, 03:19:24 PM »
The market is insanely hot for sellers....the drop in interest rates in the last two weeks took it from a good to crazy seller's market.

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2340
  • -Received: 1855
  • Posts: 9067
  • Gender: Male
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #605 on: August 11, 2020, 03:21:17 PM »
The market is insanely hot for sellers....the drop in interest rates in the last two weeks took it from a good to crazy seller's market.

Yup, especially in the sub $800k-$900k price range since there's so little inventory. There were a few small 3-bed homes detached homes in Tustin Ranch that got 10-15 offers each and will close well above their asking prices (so high that buyers will have to come out of pocket to cover appraisal shortfalls).
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA BRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

Offline Compressed-Village

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 337
  • -Received: 247
  • Posts: 1970
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #606 on: August 11, 2020, 04:41:33 PM »
Where is Liars Loans and all the downers for SoCal Realestate went to?

I guess they still in the bunkers waiting for the crash to happen, it’s been quiet from them for along time. Oh well, maybe a year or two, then they will comes out from their closets. :)

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline Kenkoko

  • O.C. Resident
  • ***
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 147
  • -Received: 228
  • Posts: 820
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #607 on: August 11, 2020, 05:22:49 PM »
Didn't always agree with Liar Loan, but wasn't part of his argument about relative value?

I remember part of his argument was to invest elsewhere (like stocks) and buy RE during the down cycle.

Even if you go back 2 years to 2018 like Zubs said. S&P 500 index has gone up 18%. NASDAQ index has gone up 37%. Irvine RE hasn't surpassed 2018 peak sqft prices.

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline Compressed-Village

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 337
  • -Received: 247
  • Posts: 1970
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #608 on: August 11, 2020, 07:16:30 PM »
I used to believe in cycles.


Until the FED pulled out and keeping pulling out all kinds of rabbits from the magic hats. The markets should have crashed and stay crash. Now all assets not only prop-up, it balloons to an unprecedented levels while main street suffer vastly.


So when is this going to pop?

When IF Biden / Harris occupies the WH?

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2340
  • -Received: 1855
  • Posts: 9067
  • Gender: Male
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #609 on: August 11, 2020, 08:28:28 PM »
Didn't always agree with Liar Loan, but wasn't part of his argument about relative value?

I remember part of his argument was to invest elsewhere (like stocks) and buy RE during the down cycle.

Even if you go back 2 years to 2018 like Zubs said. S&P 500 index has gone up 18%. NASDAQ index has gone up 37%. Irvine RE hasn't surpassed 2018 peak sqft prices.



Prices in the lower end of the market are at or slightly above 2018 peak prices today, the higher end not so much. I would venture to bet that the rental home that he sold earlier is worth more today than what he sold it for because even the IE is seeing bidding wars (I was out with a client looking at homes in Corona and kept running into multiple offer situations...Corona of all places).  haha
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA BRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2340
  • -Received: 1855
  • Posts: 9067
  • Gender: Male
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #610 on: August 11, 2020, 08:30:26 PM »
I used to believe in cycles.


Until the FED pulled out and keeping pulling out all kinds of rabbits from the magic hats. The markets should have crashed and stay crash. Now all assets not only prop-up, it balloons to an unprecedented levels while main street suffer vastly.


So when is this going to pop?

When IF Biden / Harris occupies the WH?

If we haven't learned during the 2008 financial crisis, we definitely learned not to fight the FED this go around. They can throw more money at downturns than any of us can imagine, it's basically as easy as typing "0"s on a keyboard. Print baby print.  haha
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA BRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

Offline irvinehomeowner

  • The Unicorn Hunter
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2516
  • -Received: 3851
  • Posts: 22368
  • 3CWG
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #611 on: August 11, 2020, 09:22:10 PM »
Back in 2018, my renter said he sold his house & began renting because he was waiting for real estate to crater.  He signed a 1 year lease.
Guess who's still renting my house?

Irvine real estate would crater?  Uhhhh yeah, no so much. I have a friend who bought an attached condo in 2011 and was looking to upgrade in 2014 but told me that he'd wait until prices came down 10%.  Despite me offering him up first crack at my listings before they hit the market, he refused and said that he'd wait until there was a price decline. Well, he's still waiting for that price decline after prices are up 15-20% since 2014 while his wife is irritated. haha

Where is Liar Loan?

If USC isn't Team Irvine... then I'm not either. :)
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
member: Soylent Green Is People (loans/refis)

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline daedalus

  • O.C. Resident
  • ***
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 218
  • -Received: 237
  • Posts: 863
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #612 on: September 15, 2020, 11:07:04 PM »
Any updates from the trenches?  I ask because inventory around me is exploding.  Have not seen this many SFRs for sale in years...maybe not since 2008-2012.  But that's my zip code.  1 zip code over, where houses are cheaper, it's a different story.  Inventory is about as tight as it has been for the past several years.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2340
  • -Received: 1855
  • Posts: 9067
  • Gender: Male
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #613 on: September 16, 2020, 09:14:12 AM »
Any updates from the trenches?  I ask because inventory around me is exploding.  Have not seen this many SFRs for sale in years...maybe not since 2008-2012.  But that's my zip code.  1 zip code over, where houses are cheaper, it's a different story.  Inventory is about as tight as it has been for the past several years.

I'm pulling the numbers together for August and will post it up later on today. From what I see there is still a lack of inventory into the sub $1m in Irvine and a ton in the $1.5m+ market but the higher end of the market has picked up a bit over the past few months.
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA BRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline talkirvine

  • Tourist
  • *
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 4
  • -Received: 1
  • Posts: 47
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #614 on: September 16, 2020, 11:05:15 AM »
Any updates from the trenches?  I ask because inventory around me is exploding.  Have not seen this many SFRs for sale in years...maybe not since 2008-2012.  But that's my zip code.  1 zip code over, where houses are cheaper, it's a different story.  Inventory is about as tight as it has been for the past several years.

I'm pulling the numbers together for August and will post it up later on today. From what I see there is still a lack of inventory into the sub $1m in Irvine and a ton in the $1.5m+ market but the higher end of the market has picked up a bit over the past few months.

Look forward to your post. By higher end, do you mean 2m+ and 2.5m+ market?

 

Talk Irvine Links

[Recent Posts]
[FAQ / Rules]

Site Supporters


Recent Posts

Re: Ravello by Goriot
[Today at 08:18:14 AM]


Re: Statement made by IUSD teachers by bones
[Today at 08:13:27 AM]


Re: Listing at Altair by Dr. CA Real Estate
[Yesterday at 11:47:01 PM]


Re: Great Park - Rise Park - District 5 North by Dr. CA Real Estate
[Yesterday at 11:36:28 PM]


Re: Ravello by Dr. CA Real Estate
[Yesterday at 11:34:15 PM]

SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2020, SimplePortal