Author Topic: Arizona Real Estate (Bubble)  (Read 5643 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Compressed-Village

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 390
  • -Received: 346
  • Posts: 2487
Re: Arizona Real Estate (Bubble)
« Reply #45 on: May 02, 2022, 08:11:18 PM »
It's fine if somebody like USC, who is informed, decides to buy what they want.  The problem is 80-90% of real estate buyers are low information buyers that simply do what their lenders and realtors advise them. 

It's surprising to me that CalBears and R2D2, with their history of purchasing at the peak of other bubbles, don't see the warning signs this time.  Emotions are a powerful thing.  I would not want to be them in five years, but it's their decision to buy what they want. 

I can only try to warn first time buyers that may not have been around for the last housing crash that home prices don't always go up, and that there is a lot of artificial stimulus driving the current "shortage" of homes.  I don't see anybody else spreading this message.  I know it would have been valuable to me when I made my first purchase in '06.

Funny Liar Loan.

I ALSO sold at the peak a house that I hated. Not only that, I bought ANOTHER house near the lows and rented the first one out that I COMPLETELY paid off before I was 35.

AND I sold my Irvine home, bought a house in Legacy BEFORE your 2018 downturn you keep yapping about that has completely outperformed the Irvine house AND turned that difference in prices into over $3 million in cash which is enough to buy back the Irvine house.

Arizona taxes are a flat 2.5%. What is that here? I will save a ridiculous amount of money on income tax simply by moving AND I sold my Cali home after I bought the AZ house which means AZ has continued to go UP at the same time my Cali home did.

Jobs going to AZ is what is supporting their increase in prices. Did they have any downturn in 2018? NOPE.

Should houses go down, what will happen there? Investors will snap up everything under $500K and rent them out for at least break even. Of course it helps property taxes are a couple thousand a year. How many can say that in Cali? Certainly NOT YOU.

U live in a state that can't comprehend not wanting more money, a state with ridiculous income tax, gas tax, property taxes for anyone that hasn't owned their property for decades, especially those with mello, high priced utilities (check out how much u pay per kwh for electricity. No wonder people want solar), high everything, except if you're homeless or here illegally. And it is literally never enough. What did other states do with their budget surplus which Cali is required to spend or return? RETURNED it to TAXPAYERS. What is Cali doing? Trying to figure out how to spend it. Don't look now. The state isn't happy people are saving something with solar and EVs. They want to add fees for ya all and charge per mile to drive your cars here, after they required new home builds to include solar and are banning gas burning cars. How's that bullet train coming? I heard it's running out of $$$$. Guess who they will come to for more of that?

BTW............. I traded my way to the cash to pay for my house that is closing on Thursday and that is trades I made from mid December to this week. See why I want lower income tax?

Sometimes u should look at the bigger picture. U live in a state that is going in the wrong direction and whatever u own will underperform what I bought, going forward from here.

Wow R2D, didn’t know you grew up here and LOVE it so much. I thought rich people don’t pay taxes?  ;) ;), you need to take a play book from Donald  >:D >:D

Offline Compressed-Village

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 390
  • -Received: 346
  • Posts: 2487
Re: Arizona Real Estate (Bubble)
« Reply #46 on: May 02, 2022, 08:59:41 PM »
In the recent Berkshire investor meeting held live in person after 2 years of virtual,

Warren Buffett said US financial markets had become “almost totally a casino.”

Vegas is not necessary.

He failed to mention that the Federal Reserve has been the dealer to make it all happen.


Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 818
  • -Received: 526
  • Posts: 2667
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Arizona Real Estate (Bubble)
« Reply #47 on: May 03, 2022, 09:31:15 AM »
AND I sold my Irvine home, bought a house in Legacy BEFORE your 2018 downturn you keep yapping about

Jobs going to AZ is what is supporting their increase in prices. Did they have any downturn in 2018? NOPE.

You deserve massive props for selling Irvine when you did and buying elsewhere in OC.  Nice job!

In the recent Berkshire investor meeting held live in person after 2 years of virtual,

Warren Buffett said US financial markets had become “almost totally a casino.”

Vegas is not necessary.

He failed to mention that the Federal Reserve has been the dealer to make it all happen.

Yes, not only did he fail to point out the Fed's role in all this, but he went on to praise Jerome Powell for doing a good job.  We have 40 year high inflation and a casino economy.  How is that worthy of praise?

Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 818
  • -Received: 526
  • Posts: 2667
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Arizona Real Estate (Bubble)
« Reply #48 on: May 27, 2022, 11:58:34 AM »
The housing market just slid into a full-blown correction, says top economist Mark Zandi

This drop-off isn't a result of seasonality or a soft month or two. Zandi says it's a trajectory flip: Demand is pulling back—fast—in the face of mortgage rates that spiked dramatically.

"The housing market has peaked … everything points to a rolling over of the housing market," Zandi says. "In terms of home sales, they're falling sharply. Housing demand is coming down fast. Home price growth to go flat here pretty quickly, we will see [home] price declines in a significant number of markets."

Zandi says the extremely "overvalued" housing markets like Boise and Phoenix are at the highest risk of falling home prices over the coming year.


https://fortune.com/2022/05/27/housing-market-correction-peak-mark-zandi-moodys-home-prices-outlook/

Offline Compressed-Village

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 390
  • -Received: 346
  • Posts: 2487
Re: Arizona Real Estate (Bubble)
« Reply #49 on: May 27, 2022, 02:25:09 PM »
The housing market just slid into a full-blown correction, says top economist Mark Zandi

This drop-off isn't a result of seasonality or a soft month or two. Zandi says it's a trajectory flip: Demand is pulling back—fast—in the face of mortgage rates that spiked dramatically.

"The housing market has peaked … everything points to a rolling over of the housing market," Zandi says. "In terms of home sales, they're falling sharply. Housing demand is coming down fast. Home price growth to go flat here pretty quickly, we will see [home] price declines in a significant number of markets."

Zandi says the extremely "overvalued" housing markets like Boise and Phoenix are at the highest risk of falling home prices over the coming year.


https://fortune.com/2022/05/27/housing-market-correction-peak-mark-zandi-moodys-home-prices-outlook/

For the record, in Phoenix 30% of recent transactions closed sale have been bought up by Hedge Funds and institutional investors such as Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 rent, also Black Rock residential is prevalence in AZ residential purchases in the past few years to now.

Offline irvinehomeowner

  • The Unicorn Hunter
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2775
  • -Received: 4103
  • Posts: 23909
  • 3CWG
Re: Arizona Real Estate (Bubble)
« Reply #50 on: May 27, 2022, 02:50:53 PM »
I was going to report spam but it's just LL trying to make up for his last 4 years of bad calls.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
member: Soylent Green Is People (loans/refis)

Offline Ready2Downsize

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 15
  • -Received: 269
  • Posts: 1861
Re: Arizona Real Estate (Bubble)
« Reply #51 on: May 27, 2022, 08:55:51 PM »
The housing market just slid into a full-blown correction, says top economist Mark Zandi

This drop-off isn't a result of seasonality or a soft month or two. Zandi says it's a trajectory flip: Demand is pulling back—fast—in the face of mortgage rates that spiked dramatically.

"The housing market has peaked … everything points to a rolling over of the housing market," Zandi says. "In terms of home sales, they're falling sharply. Housing demand is coming down fast. Home price growth to go flat here pretty quickly, we will see [home] price declines in a significant number of markets."

Zandi says the extremely "overvalued" housing markets like Boise and Phoenix are at the highest risk of falling home prices over the coming year.


https://fortune.com/2022/05/27/housing-market-correction-peak-mark-zandi-moodys-home-prices-outlook/

For the record, in Phoenix 30% of recent transactions closed sale have been bought up by Hedge Funds and institutional investors such as Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 rent, also Black Rock residential is prevalence in AZ residential purchases in the past few years to now.
There you go with PHOENIX again. LOL! That is like saying Los Angeles and trying to say it's Irvine.

So my little house I'm using as a temp house which I might give to my daughter so they can rent their house out is closed now. I'll be moving there before the big shebang in a couple weeks. Hubby went on the final walk thru for us and got the keys. Neighbor noticed his cali plates and wanted to welcome us to the neighborhood. They are from Garden Grove and told him someone a few houses down is from Irvine. They too are just moving in, don't know anyone else but who knows how many more people are there from the OC.

My other house is awaiting windows which apparently are hard to get, so good move on my part to secure a place to live for a while has a retired firefighter from Chicago behind us and someone from Seattle next to them.

No one from invitation homes, not that I care but so what? They will continue to buy up anything that comes on the market for under $500K and turn around and rent them out. Guess that puts a floor in the market for a while there, eh?

My neighbor across the street moved today to Tennessee. Someone else here is moving to Florida. We're all cashing in and buying places for cash. Do you think ANY of us will be one bit sorry if houses come down? LOL! NOPE. Cuz we all are paying cashola with leftover cash in lower tax states. TN and FL have no income tax. AZ has the lowest flat tax, 2.5%. And did I mention the much lower property tax? LOL!!!!

There is NOTHING u can say AT ALL to make it look like a bad move. Saying housing coming down? I SOLD! Saying it will fall in PHOENIX? I don't care! Got enough cash from this place to buy four MORE for cash. I'll be losing money? Well the builder always has a spec home and it's 20% more than what I paid so prices would have to fall ALOT to lose money. I can rent the place out and make money!

Too hot? A/C works fine and the houses are better insulated and price per kwh is half of here and even if I pay more, WHO CARES? HOA is 1/3 the price I pay here.

Nothing to do there? LOL! Lots of hiking, and plenty of city water parks which are free. They include skate parks, basketball courts, splash pads, water slides, dozens of gazebos... Did I mention FREE? Yup. No mello for those. Paid for out of city funds. Got my kids there too.

No water? City has 200-300 years worth of ground water mixed with a small amount of Colorado River water................ SMALL amount so the ground water will last another 100 years. In case u think omg............ river is going away.............. we get water from other rivers and reservoirs.

What about all the water the chip plants use? OMG! Hee hee. Waiting for u to throw that at me. They have in house recycling and can't build if they don't use mostly recycled water.

Nothing grows there? LOL! Ok, u believe that if you want.

Property taxes will skyrocket? LOL! Can't be anywhere close to here. They assess all houses every year. They get a budget from everyone who gets property tax funding. Add up what that comes to. Divide by the assessed values and apply a multiplier to the assessed value. Areas with lots of building have more houses contributing every year, way more than the roads cost. Taxes are pretty steady due to building new places. Oh........... what happens if a recession comes and no one builds? Budgets get cut due to layoffs.

Schools are bad? U can pick charter, public, private. The new high school in the district my daughter teaches in is opening up in the summer. I would love to have gone to this one.


 
« Last Edit: May 27, 2022, 09:20:19 PM by Ready2Downsize »

Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 818
  • -Received: 526
  • Posts: 2667
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Arizona Real Estate (Bubble)
« Reply #52 on: June 03, 2022, 12:24:45 PM »
3...2...1... blast off!


Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 818
  • -Received: 526
  • Posts: 2667
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Arizona Real Estate (Bubble)
« Reply #53 on: June 07, 2022, 01:02:06 PM »
With sales down 89% in Phoenix, what could possibly go wrong?


Offline irvinehomeowner

  • The Unicorn Hunter
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2775
  • -Received: 4103
  • Posts: 23909
  • 3CWG
Re: Arizona Real Estate (Bubble)
« Reply #54 on: June 07, 2022, 01:50:37 PM »
Trolling trolling... Liar Loan is trolling... rawhide!
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
member: Soylent Green Is People (loans/refis)

Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 818
  • -Received: 526
  • Posts: 2667
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Arizona Real Estate (Bubble)
« Reply #55 on: June 07, 2022, 02:59:07 PM »
Trolling trolling... Liar Loan is trolling... rawhide!

Data is anathema to those that want to keep their heads buried in the sand.

Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 818
  • -Received: 526
  • Posts: 2667
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Arizona Real Estate (Bubble)
« Reply #56 on: June 20, 2022, 02:47:33 PM »
Phoenix homes are more expensive than they were in 2007/08 - 8.5x local incomes today vs. 8.1x local incomes during the 2007 housing bubble.


Offline nosuchreality

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 155
  • -Received: 582
  • Posts: 2831
Re: Arizona Real Estate (Bubble)
« Reply #57 on: June 20, 2022, 03:50:50 PM »
Lots of private equity, standard HGTV quartz white counter, white cabinets, desert motif and abnb, vrbo, short term or snow bird rentals.


Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 818
  • -Received: 526
  • Posts: 2667
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Arizona Real Estate (Bubble)
« Reply #58 on: June 22, 2022, 11:25:39 AM »
Arizona is more overvalued than it was in 2007 according to the charts in this article.  That is crazy because Phoenix had one of the worst crashes of any market at that time.

It looks a lot like a housing bubble. How your local housing market compares to 2007, as told by 4 interactive charts

In significantly "overvalued" housing markets like Boise and Phoenix, Zandi forecasts a 5% to 10% home price drop.

But Zandi's prediction goes out the window if a recession does indeed manifest. If a recession hits, Zandi predicts U.S. home prices would fall by 5% on a year-over-year basis—while significantly "overvalued" housing markets would see, Zandi says, a 15% to 20% home price dip.


https://fortune.com/2022/06/20/housing-market-in-2022-looks-similar-to-the-2008-housing-bubble-housing-charts-home-prices/

Offline paydawg

  • O.C. Resident
  • ***
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 52
  • -Received: 113
  • Posts: 872
Re: Arizona Real Estate (Bubble)
« Reply #59 on: June 22, 2022, 12:18:48 PM »
The 2007/08 bubble was fueled by unqualified borrowers who obtained Option-Arm and NINA loans for little to no equity and subsequently strategically defaulted with limited consequence. 

Current borrowers are more qualified, have been vetted more thoroughly by the lenders, have more equity and are largely on fixed-rate mortgages below 4%. 

Apples and Oranges. 

At some point in the near future, values will go down, but nothing close to the drops drop from 07/08. 
Thanks in advance for the 'thanks'!!

 

Talk Irvine Links

[Recent Posts]
[FAQ / Rules]

Site Supporters


Recent Posts

Re: New communities in Portola Springs by mellorooster
[Today at 12:04:03 AM]


Re: Great Park - Solis Park by sleepy5136
[Today at 12:03:05 AM]


Re: Tesla Solar Panels Price Cut by marmott
[Yesterday at 11:08:29 PM]


Re: Tesla Solar Panels Price Cut by daedalus
[Yesterday at 10:39:58 PM]


Re: 3 Decomposed Bodies Found in Irvine Home by aquabliss
[Yesterday at 09:59:06 PM]

SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2022, SimplePortal