Poll

Which quarter will the US economic output exceed the pre-COVID level?

2020Q3
0 (0%)
2020Q4
0 (0%)
2021Q1
1 (14.3%)
2021Q2
0 (0%)
2021Q3 or later
6 (85.7%)

Total Members Voted: 7

Voting closed: May 25, 2020, 07:09:42 AM

Author Topic: When will quarterly US GDP exceed 2019Q4?  (Read 1620 times)

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Offline freedomcm

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When will quarterly US GDP exceed 2019Q4?
« on: May 22, 2020, 07:09:42 AM »
Total economic output is 2019Q4 was ~$4.5 billion.  So when do you predict that the US GDP will rise above that level again, not gamed quarterly 'rate of change' from the trough, which we know is subject to wild swings, but when will we see *real* growth.

Offline nosuchreality

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Offline freedomcm

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Re: When will quarterly US GDP exceed 2019Q4?
« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2020, 07:21:55 AM »
Oops, bad math on my part.  Yes, $21.7/4 = ~$5.5 billion.

When will we see it again?

Offline nosuchreality

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Re: When will quarterly US GDP exceed 2019Q4?
« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2020, 07:39:42 AM »
Coffee time Freedom. $5.5T.

Kidding aside, that depends.  I'm not sure if it depends more on how the virus behaves or more on how our Governments manage it.

If the virus lays low through summer, things will look good come fall.  If it doesn't come back like the flu in October,  I think confidence will return pretty solidly.

If it semi-behaves and sit and hover in the 500-1000 deaths a day range that 5000 deaths a week will slowly grind into people where someone they know is in the hospital or dead.  I do think that changes people's perceptions of it.

Then there is the other wild-card.  Are the major cities, LA, SF, Seattle, DFW, Chicago ready for a hotspot flareup to test, trace and isolate or not? If a place like DFW gets a Sioux Falls type outbreak going where 80,000 test positive in a month with 2000 dead, never mind a NYC type event.  I really don't think the cities are ready.

TLDR, Q4 2021. 
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 07:55:53 AM by nosuchreality »

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Offline Kenkoko

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Re: When will quarterly US GDP exceed 2019Q4?
« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2020, 08:08:58 AM »
Re-opening isn't a lights-on, lights-off situation.

Millions of jobs lost will take years to come back. Some will not come back ever.

Full recovery is going to be beyond 2021.

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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: When will quarterly US GDP exceed 2019Q4?
« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2020, 10:16:04 AM »
Re-opening isn't a lights-on, lights-off situation.

Millions of jobs lost will take years to come back. Some will not come back ever.

Full recovery is going to be beyond 2021.

Agreed, full recovery won't come until 2022+ (especially the job market) but that doesn't mean that stock market and real estate won't be higher than the last peak before then with all the Fed money printing and gov't stimulus.
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Offline iacrenter

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Re: When will quarterly US GDP exceed 2019Q4?
« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2020, 01:29:02 PM »
Agreed, it will be a 1 year+ recovery.  Regaining consumer confidence will be the key and that will take some time. Even if they get a vaccine approved by the end of this year (very doubtful), getting production, distribution, and administration ramped up will be challenging. Even post vaccine our world and economy will  be forever changed. I can see permanent use of tele services / commuting and contactless transactions / pickup at stores.

Offline freedomcm

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Re: When will quarterly US GDP exceed 2019Q4?
« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2020, 06:30:00 AM »
Will you take the over or under:

new poll of Wall Street economists as to when the USA returns to January 2020 GDP levels:

1/3 say second half of 2021
1/3 say first half of  2022
1/3 say second half of 2022


Offline morekaos

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Re: When will quarterly US GDP exceed 2019Q4?
« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2020, 08:19:41 AM »
Well this could be interesting...

Latest estimate: 34.6 percent — October 1, 2020
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 34.6 percent on October 1, up from 32.0 percent on September 25. After recent releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 38.1 percent and 34.2 percent, respectively, to 45.1 percent and 36.8 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.28 percentage points to -0.56 percentage points.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When will quarterly US GDP exceed 2019Q4?
« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2020, 09:09:29 AM »
The $61.7 billion Aug. U.S. trade deficit is the largest in 14 years, and the 2nd biggest ever. The deficit in goods surged to $83.9 billion, a record high. @realDonaldTrump promised to make America great again by winning on trade. Instead losses on trade have never been greater.

Offline freedomcm

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Re: When will quarterly US GDP exceed 2019Q4?
« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2020, 07:13:49 AM »
Not "interesting" if the economy tanks, and then makes back part of the loss, that you get a big (annualized) number.

The question is, when will the economy recover to pre-covid levels?



Well this could be interesting...

Latest estimate: 34.6 percent — October 1, 2020
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 34.6 percent on October 1, up from 32.0 percent on September 25. After recent releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 38.1 percent and 34.2 percent, respectively, to 45.1 percent and 36.8 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.28 percentage points to -0.56 percentage points.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

Offline morekaos

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Re: When will quarterly US GDP exceed 2019Q4?
« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2020, 11:20:27 AM »
We are America!!!...with a capital A!...

U.S. GDP booms at 33.1% rate in Q3, better than expected


U.S. GDP accelerated at a 33.1% annualized pace in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported.
That was better than the 32% estimate from a Dow Jones economist survey.
A surge in business and residential investment along with stronger consumer activity helped the economy after its worst-ever quarter in Q2.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/us-gdp-report-third-quarter-2020.html


Offline nosuchreality

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Re: When will quarterly US GDP exceed 2019Q4?
« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2020, 11:57:41 AM »
Except we don’t have another $4,000,000,000,000.00 dollars of stimulus coming.

Offline morekaos

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Re: When will quarterly US GDP exceed 2019Q4?
« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2020, 12:29:55 PM »
I don't think we need it and thats why they slow walked it all quarter...they really didn't want to do it. Our economy is an amazing animal...unlike any other on earth!

Laffer, an informal economic adviser to President Trump, including on COVID-19 response, said the Q3 bounceback wouldn't have been possible without strong economic fundamentals.

"COVID-19 hit the U.S. economy, and [prior to the outbreak] the U.S. economy had the lowest unemployment rate we had since 1959," Laffer said. "It had the longest period of expansion in, I think, U.S. history. So, when it hit the economy. I mean we were in as good a shape as possible to absorb that. Imagine what would have happened if it hit in the middle of the Great Recession or some other time. It would have caused a lot more damage."

Laffer said compared to Europe and other developed nations, the United States has recovered more quickly in part, he believes, because the federalist model of flexible, decentralized government with power exercised at the state level allowed for a more rapid economic reopening in areas that were less at risk of intense COVID outbreaks.

According to economists from global accounting and financial consulting giant Deloitte, GDP in the United States is set to contract by 6.4% in 2020 and by 1.7% in 2021. However, Deloitte estimated that the U.S. contraction in in 2020 would be the second mildest (behind only Japan) among G7 nations, with all the other countries — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the U.K. — estimated to take a harder hit.

https://justthenews.com/nation/economy/new-q3-economic-numbers-expected-show-record-growth-best-ever-recovery-us-economists
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 12:37:19 PM by morekaos »

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When will quarterly US GDP exceed 2019Q4?
« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2020, 02:20:11 PM »
Best jokes of the day!!!


Best jokes of the year!!! Keep it going, this is almost better than laughing gas.

 

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