Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 62662 times)

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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #825 on: September 06, 2019, 11:42:15 AM »
The same house we bought in 2006, was already over our buy price by 2011. And by 2017, it was almost 25% more.

The Irvine motto is "Slower to drop, faster to rise." :)

This seems like an extreme corner case.  2006 was the peak of the market and by most accounts didn't get back to this level until 2016/2017.  2011/2012  is generally considered the bottom of the market.

Probably, I should have added the caveat that this was *my* experience. Although I did check comps for similar homes... remember 3CGW homes are collector items. :)

So if your case was an extreme outlier it should be ignored when examining the data.

In general, less desirable homes, like the condo I bought, crashed the hardest.  That's because the financial profiles of condo owners are typically weaker than SFR owners.  The ability to hang on during a recession is not as strong, so you end up with more foreclosures / short sales, plus a lot of buyers that used subprime / toxic financing to begin with.  (This time around, substitute FHA financing for subprime and the same thing applies.)

For a 3CWG in Irvine, that level of home is harder to attain to begin with, so the financial profiles of those owners is stronger.  That means fewer foreclosures in your segment and smaller price drops, plus a faster recovery.

Nonetheless, it made sense to rent from '06-'11 for most prospective Irvine buyers.

Concerning the current downturn, I would say existing owners should just stay put.  This is because they would pay so much in closing costs to both sell and then re-buy again near the bottom, that it would negate a huge portion of the savings they would achieve by renting.  Whereas, first time buyers would benefit greatly by being cautious (and wise) right now.

Irvine prices are falling.
Irvine rents are falling.
Mortgage rates are falling.

There is absolutely no incentive for first time buyers to rush in right now.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2019, 11:49:02 AM by Liar Loan »

Offline OC_relocation

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #826 on: September 06, 2019, 01:54:33 PM »
This home has been on market for more than 150 days. I am sure price cut is coming soon

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/66-Forbes-92618/home/51682956

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #827 on: September 10, 2019, 09:59:12 PM »
This home has been on market for more than 150 days. I am sure price cut is coming soon

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/66-Forbes-92618/home/51682956

Or they won't because the seller is stubborn.
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #828 on: September 13, 2019, 08:48:20 AM »
So if your case was an extreme outlier it should be ignored when examining the data.

I can't be sure it was. As I said, other 3CWGs I looked at had similar value retention.

And I will stick to my contention that real estate is not just about data. Even extreme outliers can't be ignored because you have to consider why there are outliers to understand the effect on the market. As you said, maybe because all I was looking at was 3CWGs. Even the "data" study that IHB did showed that a 3rd car garage had the most value-add for homes (which of course has been ignored by all new home builders today).

All the people during the last crash who just looked at data predicted over 50% drops for Irvine and "ignored" the FCB buyers as a reason why there was better stability than surrounding cities now recognize those FCB "outliers".

Data said there was no way the Fed would create an environment where rates would drop to record lows. Now that "outlier" of a ~3% mortgage is the norm.

Reported record lows in sales volume the last year and a half was suppose to produce measurable price drops... but so far it's only been 1-5% depending on the housing stock? And as I've said, that's on the low end compared to previous drops the last 8 years which have been as high as 15%. I don't remember a lot of discussion about a "slowdown" during 2011 or 2016 and those drops were more than the current one.

Sure, prices are going down again, but... is it seasonal?

:)
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Offline Goriot

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #830 on: September 18, 2019, 12:38:36 PM »

https://www.irvinestandard.com/2019/studying-irvines-home-values/



I read that in the one they mail to Irvine residents.

Here's the image:



What I'm trying to figure out is what he is basing "value" on since this isn't price.

Quote
Since 2005, Irvine home values have appreciated by 77%. The rest of Orange County appreciated at 22%.

“The proof of Irvine’s value is in the numbers,” Boud says. “The city has significantly outpaced its neighbors.”

And the correlation isn’t just during periods of economic growth.

Boud’s numbers also show that during challenging times, Irvine’s homes depreciate at a far slower pace than those in surrounding communities.

“We believe it is Irvine’s balance that drives and retains value,” Boud says. “Schools, parks, open space, high-paying jobs, public safety … all these factors converge positively here in ways other communities simply cannot match.”

Boud also notes that value should not be confused with prices.

“It’s the difference between climate and weather,” Boud explains. “We’re looking at the long-term arc of home values. Prices will fluctuate from time to time, but what’s more important for a local economy is how value performs over the long haul, and Irvine is in a class of its own.”
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Offline momopi

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #831 on: September 18, 2019, 12:44:48 PM »
?_?  Where did they get the 22% figure for OC?

In Santa Ana, $300K SFR in 2010 sells for $600K today.

Even in Tustin, $600K SFR in 2010 sells for $900K today.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #832 on: September 18, 2019, 01:26:07 PM »
Somebody could email him if they want:

mark.boud@realestateeconomics.com

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #833 on: September 18, 2019, 02:47:38 PM »
Somebody could email him if they want:

mark.boud@realestateeconomics.com

I think you would be a good candidate for it, since you strongly believe that Irvine numbers decelerations already occurs many months ago. I like to compare Irvine # with wherever you live currently. I assume you close to the beach somewhere, so let’s go.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #834 on: September 18, 2019, 04:22:02 PM »
Somebody could email him if they want:

mark.boud@realestateeconomics.com

I think you would be a good candidate for it, since you strongly believe that Irvine numbers decelerations already occurs many months ago. I like to compare Irvine # with wherever you live currently. I assume you close to the beach somewhere, so let’s go.

I don't own a new home, so these numbers are not applicable to me.  I can tell you that I'm selling an investment property purchased only four years ago for more than double what I paid.  Believe me, Irvine is not the place you want to buy if doubling your money is the goal.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #835 on: September 18, 2019, 04:49:58 PM »
Did you buy in Johns Creek? :)
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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #836 on: September 18, 2019, 04:56:40 PM »
Inglewood? I remember he talked about it

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #837 on: September 18, 2019, 05:51:57 PM »
Somebody could email him if they want:

mark.boud@realestateeconomics.com

I think you would be a good candidate for it, since you strongly believe that Irvine numbers decelerations already occurs many months ago. I like to compare Irvine # with wherever you live currently. I assume you close to the beach somewhere, so let’s go.

I don't own a new home, so these numbers are not applicable to me.  I can tell you that I'm selling an investment property purchased only four years ago for more than double what I paid.  Believe me, Irvine is not the place you want to buy if doubling your money is the goal.

You are deflecting from the main point of the discussions.

You insisting on Irvine is not as good of an investment but you have no other credibility for backing up your double in number of address or location, you pointed out that numbers from “some online” sources suggested that Irvine had and continue to drop beyond 5% and it’s not seasonal. You continue to say that renting and continue to rent in the foreseeable future is the best options without real numbers.

At least IHO and some other including me standby a known location “Irvine” with real data’s and chart.

All that I get from you is doubles investment in 4 years.

Now let me be clear, everything will have its up and down. During the difficulties years, Data from Irvine have proven it was down slowest and fastest upward recovery.

But this is the internet so you can say whatever and have no real consequences. SO, Carry-on, carry-on.

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #838 on: September 18, 2019, 10:04:37 PM »
Sorry for the long post, I just have to on record and be proud to be able to live and play in Irvine.

CityofIrvine.org/accolades/2019-2018-awards

2019-2018 Awards


2019
The University of California, Irvine has been ranked by Money, formerly known as Money Magazine, as #1 on its 2019-2020 list of the nations "Best Colleges (link is external)." The ranking took into account data including tuition fees, family borrowing, and career earnings.
Irvine ranked #3 as Best Places to Raise a Family (link is external) by the personal finance website WalletHub based on scores for family fun, health and safety, education and child care, affordability, and socio-economic criteria.
The national nonprofit The Trust for Public Land ranked Irvine’s park system 6th best park system in the United States (link is external). The methodology used for 2019 includes the main criteria of park access; park size and investment; and popular amenities.
The City of Irvine Human Resources & Innovation Department received the Henry Reining Outstanding Organization Award for the many initiatives focused on wellness and employee engagement. This award honors contributions to good government and improved quality of life in Southern California.
The City of Irvine Fiscal Services Division, for the 40th consecutive year, was presented with the Award of Financial Reporting Achievement by the Government Finance Officers Association of the United States and Canada (GFOA) for its Comprehensive Annual Financial Report for the Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 2018.
Inside Irvine, the City's quarterly community magazine, received the Excellence in Public Information and Communications Award from the California Association of Public Information Officials.   
Irvine Ranked 2nd Happiest City in America (link is external) by WalletHub, a personal finance website, that examined each city based on 31 key indicators of happiness, ranging from depression rate to income-growth rate to average leisure time spent per day.
​Irvine Ranked No. 1 in Latest Fiscal Strength Survey
Public Safety’s Office of Emergency Management and the Public Works Department have been recognized by the National Weather Service (NWS) for the citywide preparedness of the NWS’s “StormReady” program. The program is a voluntary initiative designed to help communities save lives, protect property, and enhance community resiliency during all types of severe weather.
The Irvine Police Department was awarded the Case of the Year Award for their Orange County Golden State Killer Task Force. The award was given by the Orange County Homicide Investigators Association. The task force was honored for their tireless work which was completed in order to bring justice to the “Golden State Killer,” also known as “The East Area Rapist,” who is accused of killing 12 women and raping 45 in the 1970s and 1980s.
The City of Irvine was selected as the 2018 California Park & Recreation Society (link is external) (CPRS) Marketing and Communications Award of Excellence (link is external) recipient for the “Your Irvine” marketing campaign. Through this statewide award, the City has been recognized for the highest achievement in promoting and increasing public awareness of its parks, facilities, recreation, and leisure services programs.
The City of Irvine’s Budget Office was awarded national and state awards: The national award came from the Distinguished Budget Presentation Award by the Government Finance Officers Association of the United States and Canada (GFOA). The award represents the highest form of recognition in government budgeting for a municipal entity. In addition, the City received the Excellence Award for Fiscal Year 2018-19 Operating Budget from the California Society of Municipal Finance Officers.
2018
City of Irvine received the prestigious National Procurement Institute’s Achievement of Excellence in Procurement Award (AEP). This national award recognizes organizational excellence in public procurement. Awardees demonstrate high levels of innovation, professionalism, e-procurement, productivity and leadership. The continuously evolving AEP criteria are designed to measure state-of-the-art public procurement best practices. The City of Irvine is one of only 47 government agencies in California and one of only 65 cities in the United States and Canada to receive the award. This is the thirteenth consecutive year the City’s Purchasing Division has been awarded the AEP.
The City of Irvine has received the Rose Award from the Orange County Taxpayers Association for its efforts to protect taxpayers. The City was awarded this honor for placing Measure C on the ballot in the June 5 election, making Irvine compliant with Proposition 62, which requires 2/3 vote of the City Council to propose taxes.
The City of Irvine was awarded for its “exemplary Information Technology (IT) practices” by MISAC, the Municipal Information Systems Association of California.
Irvine remains the Safest City of 250,000 or more in the nation for the 13th consecutive year, based upon FBI statistics for violent crime.
Irvine was voted “Best City to Live in (link is external)” for the third consecutive year by Orange County Register readers in the 25th annual Best of Orange County publication.
In 2018, IPD’s Office of Emergency Management developed a first-of-its kind Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) program delivered entirely in the Mandarin language. IPD received an award for this effort from the California Emergency Services Association. The team was also asked to present on the program at the National CERT Conference in summer 2018.
Irvine ranked #27 overall among 300 U.S. cities for Best Real Estate Markets (link is external). The ranking was prepared by WalletHub, a personal finance website, based on factors such as housing market attractiveness and economic strength.
Irvine ranked #2 as Best Places to Raise a Family (link is external) by the personal finance website WalletHub based on scores for family fun, health and safety, education and child care, affordability, and socio-economic criteria.
Irvine is 10th on the list of 50 Safest College Towns in America (link is external). The rankings compiled by SafeWise, a professional review and comparison website, are based on the most recent FBI crime data.
Irvine ranked #10 as the Most Pet-Friendly Cities in America (link is external) by the personal finance website WalletHub based on our outdoor pet-friendliness and pet health & wellness scores.
The national nonprofit The Trust for Public Land ranked Irvine’s park system 10th best park system (link is external) in the United States. The methodology used for 2018 includes the main criteria of park access; park size and investment; and popular amenities. 
Irvine ranked #15 on the list of Best Cities for Young Families (link is external) in the U.S. by Consumer research group ValuePenguin.
The City of Irvine in 2018, for a second straight year, has been ranked No. 1 in fiscal strength. (link is external) The Truth in Accounting ranking of America’s 75 largest cities calculated the funds that would be left over after the bills are paid. Irvine was given a surplus score of $5,200 per taxpayer, earning the distinction as the most fiscally healthy large city in the United States. Truth in Accounting is a nonprofit that looks at public agencies’ fiscal practices.
Irvine ranked #13 for Fittest City in America by American College and Sports Medicine American Fitness Index (link is external).
Irvine received the 2017 Award of Excellence for Facility Design from the California Park & Recreation Society (link is external) for Quail Hill Community Center.
Irvine ranked #15 on Livability.com’s list for the 2018 Top 100 Best Places to Live (link is external) list based on our parks and open space, strong local economy, access to medical facilities and low crime rates.
 The City of Irvine received the Government Finance Officers Association’s (link is external) (GFOA) award for Excellence in Financial Reporting for its Comprehensive Annual Financial Report.
The City received two other prestigious awards for the financial report: The GFOA Distinguished Budget Presentation Award honoring the City’s commitment to the highest principles of governmental budgeting, and the award for Excellence in Operational Budget from the California Society of Municipal Finance Officers (link is external).

Liar Loans where you from?
« Last Edit: September 18, 2019, 10:11:09 PM by Compressed-Village »

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #839 on: September 19, 2019, 07:13:08 AM »
I don't own a new home, so these numbers are not applicable to me.  I can tell you that I'm selling an investment property purchased only four years ago for more than double what I paid.  Believe me, Irvine is not the place you want to buy if doubling your money is the goal.

While this may be true... for people who want to buy a home to live in, in a great city, with a big orange balloon... Irvine is the place (and more if you look at that list from CV). :)

#nonirvinejelly
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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