Author Topic: 2018 Migration Trends accelerate as more people look to leave Denver, SF, and LA  (Read 4448 times)

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Offline Panda

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Interesting article on the migration trends of 2018, leaving over priced markets like Denver, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. What was interesting is that I can where most of the migration into the Atlanta market is taking place.

Top cities migration into Atlanta.
1. NYC    35.7%
2. DC      8.0%
3. Los Angeles 7.5%
4. Bay Area 5.3%

Source:  https://www.redfin.com/blog/2018/10/q3-2018-migration-report.html

2018 Migration Trends accelerate as more people look to leave Denver, San Francisco, and Los Angeles
Written byTim Ellison October 24, 2018
     
As mortgage rates climb, affordability in the most expensive markets has suffered, driving more people to affordable, low-tax inland job centers in states like Florida, Texas and Tennessee.

In the third quarter of 2018 people continued to move away from high-cost coastal markets like San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., in increasing numbers. Meanwhile, more affordable areas like Sacramento, Atlanta and Phoenix continued to draw thousands of potential new residents. The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of more than 1 million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across 80 metro areas from July through September.

Nationally, 25 percent of Redfin.com home searchers looked to move to another metro area in the third quarter, compared to 22 percent during the same period last year. Affordability continues to be a driving factor causing people to move away from the coasts.

“Rising mortgage rates are exacerbating affordability issues that have been driving people out of expensive coastal metros for the past few years,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “With rates no longer near historic lows, buyers are increasingly cost-conscious, seeking more affordable homes in low-tax states in the South and middle of the country.”

Moving Out – Metros with the Highest Net Outflow of Redfin Users
San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C. and Denver posted the highest net outflows in the third quarter. Net outflow is defined as the number of people looking to leave the metro minus the number of people looking to move to the metro. A net outflow means there are more people looking to leave than people looking to move in, while a net inflow means more people are looking to move in than leave.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2018, 09:56:24 AM by Panda »
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Online nosuchreality

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JIMHO, whereever the Californians go, they start morphing it into the IE.

Offline fortune11

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Apples to apples would be a comparison to historical patterns around similar points in economic expansions (say 05 06)

That would be the “base rate”

Without that this data is not as meaningful

Offline Panda

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From what I have observed... I would say the percentage of the out of state relocations into metro Atlanta is quite accurate in the last 10 years.

Top cities migration into Atlanta.
1. NYC    35.7%
2. DC      8.0%
3. Los Angeles 7.5%
4. Bay Area 5.3%
James Park, MBA
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Yet Cali population does not shrink.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
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Offline Compressed-Village

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The Bay area tech heavy, is by design. The tech magnet moguls intend to keep it concentrated in the SF and Silicon Valley to keep their wealth afloat and to retain and attract talents. Sure, cheaper housing in desirable, and when you make 300K to be consider middle income in SF. If and when these jobs moves which is not likely then they will have plenty of people line up to get that 200K job and consider to be low income in SF and Silicone Valley. Despite of the wanting to move, they must find jobs first. Maybe change, job and leaving area all together is the answer for some. A lot of young grad still want to have a bigger salary and job market are plentiful in those area. They then end up having to co-living, and some even end up share a dozen room mates in one house. 

Offline eyephone

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Is this a marketing post to consider Atlanta?
It’s a political mess over there. 

Offline paperboyNC

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Migration is basic Economics:

A huge influx of wealthy immigrants move to California
A huge boom of tech millionaires get created in California
A booming economy and household formation have young adults moving out on their own in California

All combine to dramatically increase demand for housing.
Supply does not increase accordingly

Those with more means or willingness to sacrifice (living far way, having more roommates, etc.) win bids on available housing.

Others that did not have stable housing situations (renters) decide to move away after being outbid.

Housing demand/supply remains relatively in balance as prices increase to convince enough people that would want to live here to move elsewhere.

Offline Panda

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Appears to me that we are seeing some cooling in the LA housing market. The OC unemployment chart is like a wave. What goes up must come down and what goes down must come up.

« Last Edit: October 29, 2018, 11:02:57 AM by Panda »
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Offline eyephone

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Appears to me that we are seeing some cooling in the LA housing market. The OC unemployment chart is like a wave. What goes up must come down and what goes down must come up.



Btw - There is also cooling in Atlanta.
#zilllow

Offline Panda

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Atlanta metro's population growth from 2010 - 2017 is currently ranked #4 among 383 cities in the United States with a net population growth close to 600k, beating LA's population growth in the same time frame. Consider that Atlanta's population is roughly 5.8M vs Los Angeles's population of 13.3M. The title of the article is 2018 Migration Trends accelerates as more people look to leave over priced cities like Denver, SF, and LA.
James Park, MBA
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Direct: (678) 865-6250
Email: jpark@johnscreekrealtypartners.com

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Offline eyephone

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Here we go with the city stats.

Offline paperboyNC

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Atlanta metro's population growth from 2010 - 2017 is currently ranked #4 among 383 cities in the United States with a net population growth close to 600k, beating LA's population growth in the same time frame. The title of the article is 2018 Migration Trends accelerates as more people look to leave over priced cities like Denver, SF, and LA.

LA is bounded by:
Ocean to the West
Camp Pendleton to the South
Mountains to the North, NorthWest and SouthEast
Desert, Mountains to the East (also gets rapidly hotter)

Atlanta is bounded by:
nothing

There is very little land left to develop in LA that is "only 5 minutes further" out.
Atlanta has virtually unlimited land left to develop like that.

It's not surprising that households are moving from supply constrained locations to affordable, boundless cities.

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Offline eyephone

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I just typed in John’s Creek in Zillow and there are active listings and price reductions, many pre-forecloses.   ;D
« Last Edit: October 29, 2018, 11:37:06 AM by eyephone »

Offline Panda

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Eyephone, I am not interested in what is going to happen in next two - three month in Atlanta or LA, but I am more interested in what is going to happen in the next 5 - 10 years. Can we kindly agree that Nashville's housing market outperformed both Los Angeles and Irvine's home appreciation from 2010 - 2017? Why was there more growth in the Nashville's housing market vs Los Angeles in the last 7 years?
James Park, MBA
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Direct: (678) 865-6250
Email: jpark@johnscreekrealtypartners.com

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