Poll

Where will the Dow index be in 1 year (Sept 2019)?

Around the same (26500)
3 (21.4%)
30000-35000
8 (57.1%)
20000-25000
2 (14.3%)
35000+ (morekaos style)
0 (0%)
Below 20000
0 (0%)
Below 15000 (crash time)
0 (0%)
Other (post below)
1 (7.1%)

Total Members Voted: 14

Author Topic: 2018 Dow Poll  (Read 918 times)

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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2018 Dow Poll
« on: September 28, 2018, 08:04:25 AM »
So in the same vein as the 2018 Irvine Home Prices Poll, I wanted to get a collective idea of where TI thinks the Dow will be in a year.

When I first posted this thread:

https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,1383.0.html

... the Dow was around 11500, which some thought was surprisingly high considering it had just been at around 7300 two years earlier (Mar 2009).

Since then it has almost doubled the previous high of 13800 in Oct 2007.

So where is it going? We will hit the 30000 mark or is this another bubble precursor for a crash?
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Offline qwerty

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Re: 2018 Dow Poll
« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2018, 08:08:08 AM »
I think your ranges may be to large. Perhaps in 2500 increments?

I think between 27,000 and 29,000

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: 2018 Dow Poll
« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2018, 08:18:54 AM »
I think your ranges may be to large. Perhaps in 2500 increments?

I think between 27,000 and 29,000

Yeah, like the house poll... just wanted a general direction and not too granular. I think for the 'Around the same" option, I should have put 25000-30000 for more clarity.

That's probably the option for you.
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: 2018 Dow Poll
« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2018, 08:22:04 AM »
I forgot to post my opinion:

As much as I think it's bubbly, business and technology is crazy right now and I expect more technological advances to continue to drive the market.

I can see us getting just over 30000 in a year.

(now that I've posted my prediction... a crash is imminent :) )
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Offline Kings

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Re: 2018 Dow Poll
« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2018, 10:43:10 AM »
dow will be 27,500 by the end of the year as i stated previously, and 30k by this time next year

when mueller investigation wraps up with bupkis we will easily see 5-10% bump

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: 2018 Dow Poll
« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2018, 09:09:37 AM »
Wow, there is a lot of strength in the market to push the Dow all time high. Would not be surprise, it will hit 28,K + sooner or later. 

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: 2018 Dow Poll
« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2018, 11:06:40 PM »
Wow, there is a lot of strength in the market to push the Dow all time high. Would not be surprise, it will hit 28,K + sooner or later. 

Lot of chasing and window dressing into year-end will occur.  I think we get to 28,000-29,000. 
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: 2018 Dow Poll
« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2018, 11:42:10 AM »
Anyone want to change their vote? :)
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Offline morekaos

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Re: 2018 Dow Poll
« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2018, 11:45:47 AM »
24265 would be a 10% retrace...no big deal.

Offline fortune11

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Re: 2018 Dow Poll
« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2018, 12:30:56 PM »
24265 would be a 10% retrace...no big deal.

What services does a financial advisor offer in today’s high information and low cost world

If the goal is to just keep investing regardless of price and sleep on the paper losses , as you keep saying here,  aren’t people better off with low fees index funds - buy and forget ?

If your only utility is providing them emotional support when the markets are down , aren’t the client s better off by just using a therapist Service customized for this  ? And maybe a lot cheaper since there is no comission involved ?

Offline morekaos

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Re: 2018 Dow Poll
« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2018, 12:45:07 PM »
Buy low sell high looks easy on paper, but in the real world it becomes impossible for most all of humanity.  The only thing that makes something cheap is everyone HATES it, 2009-2011 residential real estate market or the 2009 6600 Dow low come to mind, I bought them both, aggressively.  Selling high also means everyone LOVES it, 2000 dot com market or 2005 real estate market come to mind, I aggressively sold them.  "A person is smart, People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."  Good advice is worth paying for.



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Offline Perspective

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Re: 2018 Dow Poll
« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2018, 12:51:18 PM »
I'd be very nervous if I were in a job today that preys on folks' ignorance, and is paid based on a percentage of the transaction(s) rather than the value of the service provided.

investment "advice"
real estate sales
mortgage origination

Dodd-Frank attempted to fix some of the mortgage industry's issues, but is being attacked by the Reps. We'll see if they succeed...

Offline morekaos

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Re: 2018 Dow Poll
« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2018, 01:01:53 PM »
It's only preying on them if they believe they can do a better job without you....they can't.   I heard that dinosaur story for decades. In the 1999's they said e-trading would get rid of the advice business.  Human nature is so predictable, as individuals quit their jobs to day trade their 401k's and trust accounts into oblivion, smart investors realized the error of their new found knowledge.  My business tripled over the next few years.  I don't ask my dentist for investment advice,  of the cab driver or shoe shine boy.  My clients don't have to, they hire professionals...and pay them what they are worth.  If that wasn't true I would have been fired decades ago.  As it is, my business does nothing but grow, year in, year out.

Offline Perspective

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Re: 2018 Dow Poll
« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2018, 01:39:19 PM »
Nice, you used a couple cliches Dave Ramsey uses to promote his 5% load funds to his unsuspecting listeners. A dentist obtains an undergrad degree, then a grad degree in dentistry, and then must pass tests proving their ability to do things others can't. The barriers to entry in commission professions tend to be extremely low.

Warren Buffet proved the hedge fund industry is full of nonsense. I think only one hedgie was brave enough (dumb enough?) to take him up on his bet.

Folks are lazy and uniformed. They don't want to read dozens of books on investing to learn how simple and advantaged low-cost index funds are, relative to other equities investing methods.

That's fine. Provide them a service and take their money. At least this group skews to the higher end (folks investing decent amounts outside of retirement funds are in the top ~10% of households in income/wealth terms).

 

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