Author Topic: Market Top  (Read 14333 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Panda

  • "Live a life that will help others financially, spiritually, physically, and emotionally. Live a life that serves as an example of what an exceptional life could look like."
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 257
  • -Received: 360
  • Posts: 1496
  • Gender: Male
  • Location: Johns Creek, GA
    • www.realwealthmanagement.com
Re: Market Top
« Reply #30 on: August 06, 2018, 01:07:19 PM »
Inventory levels in Irvine look very healthy. I wouldn't worry until I see inventory levels jump above the trend of 800 homes.

James Park, MBA
Real Estate Broker and Loan Officer
CalBRE# 01894781, NMLS License # 1572291
Direct: (678) 865-6250
Email: jpark@johnscreekrealtypartners.com

http://www.biggerpockets.com/users/Panda
http://www.johnscreekrealtypartners.com

Online eyephone

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 283
  • -Received: 552
  • Posts: 8920
Re: Market Top
« Reply #31 on: August 06, 2018, 01:11:04 PM »
What up! I notice priced reductions in Johns Creek and Atlanta. (Less than 7 days) *Some new construction price reduced*

Please share your thougts.

Inventory levels in Irvine look very healthy. I wouldn't worry until I see inventory levels jump above the trend of 800 homes.



Offline fortune11

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 154
  • -Received: 180
  • Posts: 1472
Re: Market Top
« Reply #32 on: August 06, 2018, 01:17:11 PM »
We could be in a sideways consolidation path (range bound )  for several months here before taking a leg higher

No one is disputing that there are better deals to be had , compared to say last year .

But when you say “correction “ — it means a bear market — I think that’s where people need to Provide more hard data than just anecdotes on FCBs

This is the first time I heard from you that there is a price break.

In just my last post I said that if you can comfortably afford to buy , use the weakness to negotiate a better deal —- be it a choice lot, builder incentives or seller incentives .  And also that if you are stretching to buy , there is optionality in waiting

Stocks are also in a consolidation phase right now with sector rotation going on

Many sellers price their homes way too optimistically and that’s where list to sale price ratio can be higher , doesn’t mean market is in correction territory . This is my opinion .

My only fear is eyephone generally has a good pulse on the latest  trends in everything else , so what is he seeing this time that I am missing ;)



Offline Panda

  • "Live a life that will help others financially, spiritually, physically, and emotionally. Live a life that serves as an example of what an exceptional life could look like."
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 257
  • -Received: 360
  • Posts: 1496
  • Gender: Male
  • Location: Johns Creek, GA
    • www.realwealthmanagement.com
Re: Market Top
« Reply #33 on: August 06, 2018, 01:21:50 PM »
James Park, MBA
Real Estate Broker and Loan Officer
CalBRE# 01894781, NMLS License # 1572291
Direct: (678) 865-6250
Email: jpark@johnscreekrealtypartners.com

http://www.biggerpockets.com/users/Panda
http://www.johnscreekrealtypartners.com

Offline Panda

  • "Live a life that will help others financially, spiritually, physically, and emotionally. Live a life that serves as an example of what an exceptional life could look like."
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 257
  • -Received: 360
  • Posts: 1496
  • Gender: Male
  • Location: Johns Creek, GA
    • www.realwealthmanagement.com
Re: Market Top
« Reply #34 on: August 06, 2018, 01:24:13 PM »
Inventory levels are still healthy here in metro Atlanta / Johns Creek. Builders have been raising prices and will now need to adjust according to what the buyer's are willing to pay. The homes prices are still very affordable to the local demographic make up where the median home price vs the median household income is around a 3. The real estate cycles are a lot more volatile in SoCal than it is here.


James Park, MBA
Real Estate Broker and Loan Officer
CalBRE# 01894781, NMLS License # 1572291
Direct: (678) 865-6250
Email: jpark@johnscreekrealtypartners.com

http://www.biggerpockets.com/users/Panda
http://www.johnscreekrealtypartners.com

Offline Kings

  • O.C. Resident
  • ***
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 176
  • -Received: 192
  • Posts: 913
Re: Market Top
« Reply #35 on: August 06, 2018, 01:32:35 PM »
We could be in a sideways consolidation path (range bound )  for several months here before taking a leg higher

No one is disputing that there are better deals to be had , compared to say last year .

But when you say “correction “ — it means a bear market — I think that’s where people need to Provide more hard data than just anecdotes on FCBs

This is the first time I heard from you that there is a price break.

In just my last post I said that if you can comfortably afford to buy , use the weakness to negotiate a better deal —- be it a choice lot, builder incentives or seller incentives .  And also that if you are stretching to buy , there is optionality in waiting

Stocks are also in a consolidation phase right now with sector rotation going on

Many sellers price their homes way too optimistically and that’s where list to sale price ratio can be higher , doesn’t mean market is in correction territory . This is my opinion .

My only fear is eyephone generally has a good pulse on the latest  trends in everything else , so what is he seeing this time that I am missing ;)

this is one of the biggest issues in my mind.  we've been seeing such a run up in the market that sellers are pricing their homes optimistically high with hope that just one person will pay their inflated price. this creates artificially larger inventory and everyone's ears perk up when they start seeing price reductions, even though homes that are priced properly to begin with sell within 30 days.

Offline paperboyNC

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 308
  • -Received: 244
  • Posts: 1521
  • Gender: Male
  • Portola Springs
Re: Market Top
« Reply #36 on: August 06, 2018, 01:36:12 PM »

Which is honestly a big tell that this is not the top.

2006: EVERYONE told me to buy, buy, buy (housing)
2008: EVERYONE told me to sell, sell, sell (stocks and bonds)
2011: Most were skeptical about buying real estate

Perhaps you should have better people advising you?

I'm talking about friends, co-workers, acquaintances.  I didn't listen to any of them about any of the advice.

Offline qwerty

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2411
  • -Received: 1519
  • Posts: 6981
Re: Market Top
« Reply #37 on: August 06, 2018, 02:05:41 PM »
One thing not discussed is market psychology. Whatever the reason for the price declines, once buyers start to see price declines it can potentially prevent them from buying and if enough buyers hold back then the price declines may catch momentum and accelerate. The popular belief here is there is enough demand that people will jump in at say a 5% drop to prevent further declines, and that may be the case, but no one likes to catch a falling knife.

Offline fortune11

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 154
  • -Received: 180
  • Posts: 1472
Re: Market Top
« Reply #38 on: August 06, 2018, 02:14:01 PM »
One thing not discussed is market psychology. Whatever the reason for the price declines, once buyers start to see price declines it can potentially prevent them from buying and if enough buyers hold back then the price declines may catch momentum and accelerate. The popular belief here is there is enough demand that people will jump in at say a 5% drop to prevent further declines, and that may be the case, but no one likes to catch a falling knife.

The same thing holds true for a much more liquid market — equities

But buy the dip has been an extremely profitable trade at the aggregate level (even if not at the single stock level ) ever since 2008


Offline Mety

  • O.C. Resident
  • ***
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 90
  • -Received: 92
  • Posts: 683
Re: Market Top
« Reply #39 on: August 06, 2018, 02:47:56 PM »
We could be in a sideways consolidation path (range bound )  for several months here before taking a leg higher

No one is disputing that there are better deals to be had , compared to say last year .

But when you say “correction “ — it means a bear market — I think that’s where people need to Provide more hard data than just anecdotes on FCBs

This is the first time I heard from you that there is a price break.

In just my last post I said that if you can comfortably afford to buy , use the weakness to negotiate a better deal —- be it a choice lot, builder incentives or seller incentives .  And also that if you are stretching to buy , there is optionality in waiting

Stocks are also in a consolidation phase right now with sector rotation going on

Many sellers price their homes way too optimistically and that’s where list to sale price ratio can be higher , doesn’t mean market is in correction territory . This is my opinion .

My only fear is eyephone generally has a good pulse on the latest  trends in everything else , so what is he seeing this time that I am missing ;)

this is one of the biggest issues in my mind.  we've been seeing such a run up in the market that sellers are pricing their homes optimistically high with hope that just one person will pay their inflated price. this creates artificially larger inventory and everyone's ears perk up when they start seeing price reductions, even though homes that are priced properly to begin with sell within 30 days.

This is very true, but seeing those optimistically high priced homes could be the beginning of the crack as those could potentially lead to price reduction competitions and the whole phycological affect might pull the trigger from the buyer's side.

Homes priced properly are selling well regardless of seeing price reductions on overpriced homes. But at the same time, what does that priced properly mean? Are those really priced right or they just look that way since the market has gone too far with those optimistic listings?

Everyone is feeling the price peak whether you own properties or not. The correction is needed. No one knows when or how, but you do see the need of some kind of correction in this business. Of course as owners, we don't want to see depreciation for our homes so out of fear, we are saying it might stay flat or it might go down 5% or less, but let's be real. Even if the prices were to drop 20%, most of you who bought years ago will still be enjoying the appreciation.

#fepo

Offline Compressed-Village

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 211
  • -Received: 155
  • Posts: 1195
Re: Market Top
« Reply #40 on: August 06, 2018, 04:17:24 PM »
We could be in a sideways consolidation path (range bound )  for several months here before taking a leg higher

No one is disputing that there are better deals to be had , compared to say last year .

But when you say “correction “ — it means a bear market — I think that’s where people need to Provide more hard data than just anecdotes on FCBs

This is the first time I heard from you that there is a price break.

In just my last post I said that if you can comfortably afford to buy , use the weakness to negotiate a better deal —- be it a choice lot, builder incentives or seller incentives .  And also that if you are stretching to buy , there is optionality in waiting

Stocks are also in a consolidation phase right now with sector rotation going on

Many sellers price their homes way too optimistically and that’s where list to sale price ratio can be higher , doesn’t mean market is in correction territory . This is my opinion .

My only fear is eyephone generally has a good pulse on the latest  trends in everything else , so what is he seeing this time that I am missing ;)

this is one of the biggest issues in my mind.  we've been seeing such a run up in the market that sellers are pricing their homes optimistically high with hope that just one person will pay their inflated price. this creates artificially larger inventory and everyone's ears perk up when they start seeing price reductions, even though homes that are priced properly to begin with sell within 30 days.

This is very true, but seeing those optimistically high priced homes could be the beginning of the crack as those could potentially lead to price reduction competitions and the whole phycological affect might pull the trigger from the buyer's side.

Homes priced properly are selling well regardless of seeing price reductions on overpriced homes. But at the same time, what does that priced properly mean? Are those really priced right or they just look that way since the market has gone too far with those optimistic listings?

Everyone is feeling the price peak whether you own properties or not. The correction is needed. No one knows when or how, but you do see the need of some kind of correction in this business. Of course as owners, we don't want to see depreciation for our homes so out of fear, we are saying it might stay flat or it might go down 5% or less, but let's be real. Even if the prices were to drop 20%, most of you who bought years ago will still be enjoying the appreciation.

So your logics is everyone that want to buy a house should be able to buy a house and price need to come down to a certain level so all can own? This is like saying everyone want a million bucks in their bank and doesn’t care where it comes from just make it happen. This logic is non sense.


If you want a house, you gotta go where you can afford it. If price is high and if you want to live in a certain neighborhood, then renting is the answer. That’s why Irvine Co. is continuing building apartments. And they continue to raise rental leasing without fear. Mind you that their rental rate is not cheap either.

Offline Mety

  • O.C. Resident
  • ***
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 90
  • -Received: 92
  • Posts: 683
Re: Market Top
« Reply #41 on: August 06, 2018, 04:30:27 PM »
We could be in a sideways consolidation path (range bound )  for several months here before taking a leg higher

No one is disputing that there are better deals to be had , compared to say last year .

But when you say “correction “ — it means a bear market — I think that’s where people need to Provide more hard data than just anecdotes on FCBs

This is the first time I heard from you that there is a price break.

In just my last post I said that if you can comfortably afford to buy , use the weakness to negotiate a better deal —- be it a choice lot, builder incentives or seller incentives .  And also that if you are stretching to buy , there is optionality in waiting

Stocks are also in a consolidation phase right now with sector rotation going on

Many sellers price their homes way too optimistically and that’s where list to sale price ratio can be higher , doesn’t mean market is in correction territory . This is my opinion .

My only fear is eyephone generally has a good pulse on the latest  trends in everything else , so what is he seeing this time that I am missing ;)

this is one of the biggest issues in my mind.  we've been seeing such a run up in the market that sellers are pricing their homes optimistically high with hope that just one person will pay their inflated price. this creates artificially larger inventory and everyone's ears perk up when they start seeing price reductions, even though homes that are priced properly to begin with sell within 30 days.

This is very true, but seeing those optimistically high priced homes could be the beginning of the crack as those could potentially lead to price reduction competitions and the whole phycological affect might pull the trigger from the buyer's side.

Homes priced properly are selling well regardless of seeing price reductions on overpriced homes. But at the same time, what does that priced properly mean? Are those really priced right or they just look that way since the market has gone too far with those optimistic listings?

Everyone is feeling the price peak whether you own properties or not. The correction is needed. No one knows when or how, but you do see the need of some kind of correction in this business. Of course as owners, we don't want to see depreciation for our homes so out of fear, we are saying it might stay flat or it might go down 5% or less, but let's be real. Even if the prices were to drop 20%, most of you who bought years ago will still be enjoying the appreciation.

So your logics is everyone that want to buy a house should be able to buy a house and price need to come down to a certain level so all can own? This is like saying everyone want a million bucks in their bank and doesn’t care where it comes from just make it happen. This logic is non sense.


If you want a house, you gotta go where you can afford it. If price is high and if you want to live in a certain neighborhood, then renting is the answer. That’s why Irvine Co. is continuing building apartments. And they continue to raise rental leasing without fear. Mind you that their rental rate is not cheap either.

I don't think that's my logic at all. Forgive me if I've given that vibe.
My point is the price is pretty high now and many of those ridiculously overpriced homes are not helping at all.
Those listings will only hurt the RE market as they are the ones creating false hopes and fears.

I do not want the market to crash. That will hurt more people in this country than the opportunity for entry level buyers to buy. The true proper prices should be along the lines of means of incomes of the citizens. As of now, that is not the case and it only creates bigger and bigger bubble to burst.



#fepo

Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Realtor aka Realty King
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 1999
  • -Received: 1552
  • Posts: 7856
  • Gender: Male
Re: Market Top
« Reply #42 on: August 06, 2018, 05:55:13 PM »
We could be in a sideways consolidation path (range bound )  for several months here before taking a leg higher

No one is disputing that there are better deals to be had , compared to say last year .

But when you say “correction “ — it means a bear market — I think that’s where people need to Provide more hard data than just anecdotes on FCBs

This is the first time I heard from you that there is a price break.

In just my last post I said that if you can comfortably afford to buy , use the weakness to negotiate a better deal —- be it a choice lot, builder incentives or seller incentives .  And also that if you are stretching to buy , there is optionality in waiting

Stocks are also in a consolidation phase right now with sector rotation going on

Many sellers price their homes way too optimistically and that’s where list to sale price ratio can be higher , doesn’t mean market is in correction territory . This is my opinion .

My only fear is eyephone generally has a good pulse on the latest  trends in everything else , so what is he seeing this time that I am missing ;)

this is one of the biggest issues in my mind.  we've been seeing such a run up in the market that sellers are pricing their homes optimistically high with hope that just one person will pay their inflated price. this creates artificially larger inventory and everyone's ears perk up when they start seeing price reductions, even though homes that are priced properly to begin with sell within 30 days.

DING DING DING!  You sir nailed it with your observations.  The number of "dreamer" sellers that are looking for a sucker buyer has significantly increased in the past 3-6 months.
Martin Mania
AgencyOne
CA BRE License # 01799007
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Realtor aka Realty King
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 1999
  • -Received: 1552
  • Posts: 7856
  • Gender: Male
Re: Market Top
« Reply #43 on: August 06, 2018, 05:57:22 PM »
We could be in a sideways consolidation path (range bound )  for several months here before taking a leg higher

No one is disputing that there are better deals to be had , compared to say last year .

But when you say “correction “ — it means a bear market — I think that’s where people need to Provide more hard data than just anecdotes on FCBs

This is the first time I heard from you that there is a price break.

In just my last post I said that if you can comfortably afford to buy , use the weakness to negotiate a better deal —- be it a choice lot, builder incentives or seller incentives .  And also that if you are stretching to buy , there is optionality in waiting

Stocks are also in a consolidation phase right now with sector rotation going on

Many sellers price their homes way too optimistically and that’s where list to sale price ratio can be higher , doesn’t mean market is in correction territory . This is my opinion .

My only fear is eyephone generally has a good pulse on the latest  trends in everything else , so what is he seeing this time that I am missing ;)

this is one of the biggest issues in my mind.  we've been seeing such a run up in the market that sellers are pricing their homes optimistically high with hope that just one person will pay their inflated price. this creates artificially larger inventory and everyone's ears perk up when they start seeing price reductions, even though homes that are priced properly to begin with sell within 30 days.

This is very true, but seeing those optimistically high priced homes could be the beginning of the crack as those could potentially lead to price reduction competitions and the whole phycological affect might pull the trigger from the buyer's side.

Homes priced properly are selling well regardless of seeing price reductions on overpriced homes. But at the same time, what does that priced properly mean? Are those really priced right or they just look that way since the market has gone too far with those optimistic listings?

Everyone is feeling the price peak whether you own properties or not. The correction is needed. No one knows when or how, but you do see the need of some kind of correction in this business. Of course as owners, we don't want to see depreciation for our homes so out of fear, we are saying it might stay flat or it might go down 5% or less, but let's be real. Even if the prices were to drop 20%, most of you who bought years ago will still be enjoying the appreciation.

So your logics is everyone that want to buy a house should be able to buy a house and price need to come down to a certain level so all can own? This is like saying everyone want a million bucks in their bank and doesn’t care where it comes from just make it happen. This logic is non sense.


If you want a house, you gotta go where you can afford it. If price is high and if you want to live in a certain neighborhood, then renting is the answer. That’s why Irvine Co. is continuing building apartments. And they continue to raise rental leasing without fear. Mind you that their rental rate is not cheap either.

I don't think that's my logic at all. Forgive me if I've given that vibe.
My point is the price is pretty high now and many of those ridiculously overpriced homes are not helping at all.
Those listings will only hurt the RE market as they are the ones creating false hopes and fears.

I do not want the market to crash. That will hurt more people in this country than the opportunity for entry level buyers to buy. The true proper prices should be along the lines of means of incomes of the citizens. As of now, that is not the case and it only creates bigger and bigger bubble to burst.





If you think that prices are high in Irvine, go to West LA, Santa Monica, the South Bay, the Bay Area, Corona Del Mar, or even Newport Beach/Coast...then you'll see what high prices.
Martin Mania
AgencyOne
CA BRE License # 01799007
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

Offline fortune11

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 154
  • -Received: 180
  • Posts: 1472
Re: Market Top
« Reply #44 on: August 06, 2018, 06:54:57 PM »
We could be in a sideways consolidation path (range bound )  for several months here before taking a leg higher

No one is disputing that there are better deals to be had , compared to say last year .

But when you say “correction “ — it means a bear market — I think that’s where people need to Provide more hard data than just anecdotes on FCBs

This is the first time I heard from you that there is a price break.

In just my last post I said that if you can comfortably afford to buy , use the weakness to negotiate a better deal —- be it a choice lot, builder incentives or seller incentives .  And also that if you are stretching to buy , there is optionality in waiting

Stocks are also in a consolidation phase right now with sector rotation going on

Many sellers price their homes way too optimistically and that’s where list to sale price ratio can be higher , doesn’t mean market is in correction territory . This is my opinion .

My only fear is eyephone generally has a good pulse on the latest  trends in everything else , so what is he seeing this time that I am missing ;)

this is one of the biggest issues in my mind.  we've been seeing such a run up in the market that sellers are pricing their homes optimistically high with hope that just one person will pay their inflated price. this creates artificially larger inventory and everyone's ears perk up when they start seeing price reductions, even though homes that are priced properly to begin with sell within 30 days.

This is very true, but seeing those optimistically high priced homes could be the beginning of the crack as those could potentially lead to price reduction competitions and the whole phycological affect might pull the trigger from the buyer's side.

Homes priced properly are selling well regardless of seeing price reductions on overpriced homes. But at the same time, what does that priced properly mean? Are those really priced right or they just look that way since the market has gone too far with those optimistic listings?

Everyone is feeling the price peak whether you own properties or not. The correction is needed. No one knows when or how, but you do see the need of some kind of correction in this business. Of course as owners, we don't want to see depreciation for our homes so out of fear, we are saying it might stay flat or it might go down 5% or less, but let's be real. Even if the prices were to drop 20%, most of you who bought years ago will still be enjoying the appreciation.

So your logics is everyone that want to buy a house should be able to buy a house and price need to come down to a certain level so all can own? This is like saying everyone want a million bucks in their bank and doesn’t care where it comes from just make it happen. This logic is non sense.


If you want a house, you gotta go where you can afford it. If price is high and if you want to live in a certain neighborhood, then renting is the answer. That’s why Irvine Co. is continuing building apartments. And they continue to raise rental leasing without fear. Mind you that their rental rate is not cheap either.

I don't think that's my logic at all. Forgive me if I've given that vibe.
My point is the price is pretty high now and many of those ridiculously overpriced homes are not helping at all.
Those listings will only hurt the RE market as they are the ones creating false hopes and fears.

I do not want the market to crash. That will hurt more people in this country than the opportunity for entry level buyers to buy. The true proper prices should be along the lines of means of incomes of the citizens. As of now, that is not the case and it only creates bigger and bigger bubble to burst.





If you think that prices are high in Irvine, go to West LA, Santa Monica, the South Bay, the Bay Area, Corona Del Mar, or even Newport Beach/Coast...then you'll see what high prices.


This is called “proximity bias “

We are used to Irvine and OC prices being what they were

Need to readjust — Irvine is still cheap by LA standards or Bay Area standards  — point is , we are not going down in a vacuum


 

Talk Irvine Links

[Recent Posts]
[FAQ / Rules]

Site Supporters


Related Links

Recent Posts