Author Topic: Market Top  (Read 14330 times)

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Offline meccos12

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Market Top
« on: August 05, 2018, 07:17:56 PM »
Im gonna call a market top this summer.  I predict prices going down from here on out. 

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2018, 08:19:37 PM »
Im gonna call a market top this summer.  I predict prices going down from here on out. 


And what % drop do you predict and over what period?
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Offline Lallo

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2018, 10:40:30 PM »
Me too. All real estate is local. As far as how much, who knows.

Offline the.irvine

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2018, 11:24:29 PM »
Depends on the price point. Anything less than 850K is still flying out of the market. Maybe it is taking little longer

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2018, 11:48:31 PM »
We need a lot more bears jumping on this wagon before I call it top.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2018, 06:55:50 AM »
Im gonna call a market top this summer.  I predict prices going down from here on out. 


Don't prices usually dip after the summer selling season? Isn't this like saying the temperature will go down after the summer?
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Offline Rizdak

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2018, 07:13:29 AM »
Market may be short term overbought but I still see it inching up that wall of worry. Barring a dramatic event.

I actually feel there are too many bears. Once they finally capitulate is when I'd be worried. Just my two cents.

Offline paperboyNC

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2018, 08:00:06 AM »
Disagree. Real estate will be up another 4-5% next summer. Just not a lot of motivated sellers. Many will rent rather than sell low.

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2018, 08:14:37 AM »
Real estate ETFs YTD performance:

ITB: -12.53% (ishares US home construction)
XHB: -10.26% (SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF)

[I’m not buying]
« Last Edit: August 06, 2018, 09:33:13 AM by eyephone »

Offline Jarule046

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2018, 08:45:29 AM »
Manhattan prices down 5-7%? Top end hurting downstream. The tax repercussions are finally being felt and will continue to dog the market. That and rates. And the usual cycle. I already see so many price reductions o. The market here and in San Diego. We're waiting until later this year to buy again.

Offline Kings

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2018, 10:21:14 AM »
all of you calling the top, please put your money where your mouth is and sell your home.  should be a big profit for you!

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2018, 10:25:31 AM »
all of you calling the top, please put your money where your mouth is and sell your home.  should be a big profit for you!

Numbers don’t lie. Look at the YTD RE ETF performances.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2018, 10:38:16 AM by eyephone »

Offline paperboyNC

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2018, 10:43:55 AM »
The reason I predict prices will go up is basic supply and demand.

Contrary to popular belief, demand for housing doesn't matter if it's renters or buyers.

A lesson from 2009 - rents fell
Back in 2009, every pundit predict a surge in rents due to all of the foreclosed homeowners moving into rentals. It never happened.

Why?
  • Oversupply: New construction had overbuilt housing, particularly in less desirable neighborhoods
  • Lack of demand: As millions of Americans lost their jobs, faced paycuts and saw their investments plummet, they bunked up. Recent college grads moved in with their parents, singles that had bought a condo rented a room somewhere, immigrants went back to their home country where cost of living was less.

In 2018, housing demand (rentals + purchases) is very very strong and supply is limited. If fewer households buyer a home but can still afford their own place, demand for rentals will increase - spurring investors to buy the same homes.

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2018, 11:01:45 AM »
Manhattan prices down 5-7%? Top end hurting downstream. The tax repercussions are finally being felt and will continue to dog the market. That and rates. And the usual cycle. I already see so many price reductions o. The market here and in San Diego. We're waiting until later this year to buy again.

I think that’s smart. Maybe even wait until next year. After people do their taxes. I think that will be the fall out.


Offline Burn That Belly

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2018, 11:02:36 AM »
x
« Last Edit: August 06, 2018, 02:08:51 PM by Burn That Belly »
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