Author Topic: The Bond Bubble  (Read 10448 times)

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Offline daedalus

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #15 on: November 16, 2018, 02:10:24 AM »
Global debt bubble?  You don't say.

I went to my credit union 2 weeks ago to get a loan to buy a vehicle.  I told them I wanted to borrow "about $30k".  They approved me for a $50k used car loan on the spot and they NEVER ran my credit. I am 100% serious.  Other than the mortgage, I haven't had a loan since 2008, so it's not like I have any meaningful payment history with them.

When money is that easy to borrow there are bound to be problems.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #16 on: November 16, 2018, 07:19:52 AM »
Global debt bubble?  You don't say.

I went to my credit union 2 weeks ago to get a loan to buy a vehicle.  I told them I wanted to borrow "about $30k".  They approved me for a $50k used car loan on the spot and they NEVER ran my credit. I am 100% serious.  Other than the mortgage, I haven't had a loan since 2008, so it's not like I have any meaningful payment history with them.

When money is that easy to borrow there are bound to be problems.

Can I ask what rate they quoted you? :)
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Offline Kings

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #17 on: November 16, 2018, 08:10:00 AM »
Global debt bubble?  You don't say.

I went to my credit union 2 weeks ago to get a loan to buy a vehicle.  I told them I wanted to borrow "about $30k".  They approved me for a $50k used car loan on the spot and they NEVER ran my credit. I am 100% serious.  Other than the mortgage, I haven't had a loan since 2008, so it's not like I have any meaningful payment history with them.

When money is that easy to borrow there are bound to be problems.

Can I ask what rate they quoted you? :)

and which credit union is handing out loans like candy? daddy needs a new ride...

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Offline nosuchreality

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #18 on: November 16, 2018, 08:28:01 AM »
Global debt bubble?  You don't say.

I went to my credit union 2 weeks ago to get a loan to buy a vehicle.  I told them I wanted to borrow "about $30k".  They approved me for a $50k used car loan on the spot and they NEVER ran my credit. I am 100% serious.  Other than the mortgage, I haven't had a loan since 2008, so it's not like I have any meaningful payment history with them.

When money is that easy to borrow there are bound to be problems.

Since its your CU, hows your asset base under their stewardship compare to the loan?

Offline eyephone

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #19 on: November 16, 2018, 08:35:18 AM »
Did they run his credit in advance? It’s like receiving blank checks from credit cards. (just taking a guess)

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #20 on: November 16, 2018, 09:47:17 AM »
Schools First is my credit union and they have my wife and I both perma-approved for $50k car loans with no credit checks needed.  I think they do a soft pull, but not a hard pull and tailor the rate based on that.  I haven't checked after the most recent rate increases, but I'm sure the car loans are still in the low 2%'s.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #21 on: November 16, 2018, 10:30:12 AM »
Did they run his credit in advance? It’s like receiving blank checks from credit cards. (just taking a guess)

Well, CCs will charge you like 25%+ interest and a usage fee for using those checks, so they mitigate that risk by loan sharking your face.

I'm with NSR, is there a balance with the CU that justifies this no credit check loan?

Although I found that getting a loan though a CU is pretty easy, I could easily get a $50k loan from them without having a balance... but they do pull credit for new members. Maybe as an existing member it's a soft pull like LL said.
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Offline morekaos

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #22 on: November 16, 2018, 10:30:28 AM »
School first is so funny. I did the same thing in 2006 when I bought a suburban. They asked me over the phone how much I wanted, told them $35000, and I was astonished that the cash showed up in my account the next day. I called them and the guy told me they’d send me a payment booklet in a week or so. I could have run off to Vegas with the dough and they would take weeks to figure it out. I love that place.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #23 on: November 16, 2018, 10:32:37 AM »
2006 was a different time.

You can get $1m to buy a home without many hoops to jump through. I was self-employed during that time and it wasn't that hard.
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Offline daedalus

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #24 on: November 16, 2018, 11:03:42 AM »
The "quoted" rate was 3.99%, but due to LTV and direct payment withdrawal I walked out with 3.49% for a used vehicle loan. 
Not sure if they did a soft pull, but the lending agent and I had a pretty clear conversation about "running my credit".  I told her to wait to pull my credit until the purchase was certain and, after punching a few things into her magic station, she informed me they would not have to run my credit at all.  There may have been a soft pull involved, but I would have thought she would mention it at the time.

I have been a member there for 20 years.  Long, long ago they may have seen 6 figures in my accounts, but for probably at least 10 years now I rarely had more than $15k in my accounts at any time.  The interest difference I get from other banks is too great to ignore.  I've never had a mortgage with them, just 2 proir car loans, the last of which closed 10 years ago.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #25 on: November 16, 2018, 11:09:51 AM »
Thanks daedalus. Looks like you got the "loyalty" perk.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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Offline fortune11

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #26 on: November 17, 2018, 05:49:03 AM »
This is a lending bubble if at all not a “bond bubble “ — two totally separate things

And this is the direct result of loose regulation post 2016 — witness the “bubble “ in direct  online lending to consumers

Autos, personal loans = loose ,  kinda like 06
Housing = still nowhere near 2006

And small regional banks are a LOT more aggressive than the big national mega banks

But let’s grant that there is a “lending bubble” - what happens when it bursts ? do bond prices go up or down ? 
And then think of what generally happens to prices of anything when a so called bubble in that “thing” bursts ... there is your answer !

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #27 on: November 20, 2018, 09:32:54 AM »
I just checked our Schools First perma-approvals and I was wrong it's actually in the high 2's at 2.84%.

Offline Cares

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #28 on: December 03, 2018, 02:22:26 PM »
And our yield curve is inverted!

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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #29 on: December 03, 2018, 03:27:42 PM »
And our yield curve is inverted!

Well, one part of the yield curve is inverted: 3Yr over 5Yr.  I think traditionally Wallstreet watches the 2Yr over 10Yr as a sign of recession.  Personally, I like the 3-month T-Bill over the 30Yr.  That's when you know all hell is about to break loose.

 

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