Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 114403 times)

Offline fortune11

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« on: November 19, 2018, 06:46:37 PM »
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?

Only thing holding up is high yield loan funds - but for  how long , let’s see

The problem is with investment horizons

When you gamble or say bet on a race horse , there is a set start and end point . You may use an analytical framework to use for betting but ultimately it is a discrete event that ends and you lose/win whatever you are supposed to and walk away .


When you invest , you are in a continuous time frame . There is no end point . When your investment goes down, you think maybe I will hold it just a little bit longer and your point of exit keeps shifting and shifting and shifting, leading to constant anguish .  Truly long investment horizons are a luxury only the very few have.

This is why when going into an investment or even when you are about to buy a House — key to practice and rehearse your reaction function before hand — will I still be happy if this house were to be marked down by 5-10 percent within an year or two even though I don’t really need to sell it ? If the answer is no , then don’t buy .

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