Talk Irvine

General => Real Estate => Irvine Real Estate => Topic started by: irvinehomeowner on June 21, 2022, 12:55:13 PM

Title: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: irvinehomeowner on June 21, 2022, 12:55:13 PM
Alright, put your crystal balls to the test.

1. Finite time frame, so 1 year from now.
2. Irvine housing only (this is TI after all)
3. You can pick up to 3
4. Can vote/edit for 2 months then it locks.

I think I listed enough options but let me know if I missed something. I don't think over 50% either way is possible.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: CalBears96 on June 21, 2022, 01:34:38 PM
I'm sticking to no more than 20%, so I'm choosing the options ranging from 5% to 20%, since it will drop for sure.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: melodypowell on June 21, 2022, 01:39:30 PM
I am hoping that it drops to 2019/early 2020 level around my neighborhood, I have been looking to purchase another one so our parents can eventually move closer to us~ we will see~
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: best_potsticker_in_town on June 21, 2022, 01:41:43 PM
I selected down 5-10%. However, I think the drop will be seen more in the $2m and up price range. Below $2m should be flat-ish from here on out, in my opinion.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on June 21, 2022, 02:10:12 PM
Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: irvinehomeowner on June 21, 2022, 02:29:46 PM
Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

See this is stuff I can understand.

Quite different from your 2018 predictions of instant pain... so... given that (and I've read some of your other posts), we won't see significant drops for 5 or more years? Do I need another poll for that?
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on June 21, 2022, 03:53:35 PM
Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

See this is stuff I can understand.

Quite different from your 2018 predictions of instant pain... so... given that (and I've read some of your other posts), we won't see significant drops for 5 or more years? Do I need another poll for that?

I don't think I ever predicted "instant" pain.  There are too many differences between 2018 and 2022 to really compare the two - 2018 was driven by rates and the SALT cap revealing the weakness of Irvine home buyers; This time will be a nationwide economic event that we tell our children and grandchildren about: "I remember when rates shot up from 2% to X% and all the pain that it caused." - Just like the Boomers of today love to talk about 13% mortgage rates in 1980.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: OCtoSV on June 21, 2022, 04:21:05 PM
Lansner’s statistical modeling has him predicting 10% mortgage rates. I see that happening within 2 years and a slow burn up to 50% off for entry level properties with tbe $2M+ market being only cash transactions
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: someguy on June 21, 2022, 09:26:19 PM
.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: TestingIrvine on June 21, 2022, 09:45:45 PM
Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

See this is stuff I can understand.

Quite different from your 2018 predictions of instant pain... so... given that (and I've read some of your other posts), we won't see significant drops for 5 or more years? Do I need another poll for that?

I don't think I ever predicted "instant" pain.  There are too many differences between 2018 and 2022 to really compare the two - 2018 was driven by rates and the SALT cap revealing the weakness of Irvine home buyers; This time will be a nationwide economic event that we tell our children and grandchildren about: "I remember when rates shot up from 2% to X% and all the pain that it caused." - Just like the Boomers of today love to talk about 13% mortgage rates in 1980.

Thanks for the non commitment answer 🤡
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on June 22, 2022, 11:31:29 AM
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.williamkenlon.com%2Fimages%2FMrT.gif&f=1&nofb=1)
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on June 22, 2022, 11:56:03 AM
I think prices will be down 5-10% (depends on interest rates and the job market at that point).
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on June 23, 2022, 01:09:48 PM
#CherryPicking #BrokenClock

Orange County home prices could fall 14%, says Chapman forecast

The school’s semiannual economic outlook, released Thursday, June 23, calls for a 14% drop in the local median selling price to June 2023 — one of the first projections of significant declining home values. The forecast says Orange County’s median home price will go from $1.03 million in 2022’s first quarter to $891,000 by mid-2023. Sales counts will fall 20% this year alone.

Chapman’s previous forecasts were one of the few outlooks nationwide that saw problematic inflation emerging from a robust economic rebound out of the pandemic’s business chill. How did so many “experts” miss that fallout from an overly stimulated economy — and the obvious next step, surging interest rates?

“I can’t answer that other than to say people don’t know history and don’t believe in history,” Doti says. “It gets you to this tulip mentality, Bitcoin mentality, that the markets are just going to keep going up.”

“Almost virtually every time the Fed has tightened monetary policy — certainly when you’ve had this kind of inflation — there’s never been a soft landing,” he says. “So how can anybody believe in the soft landing? Why are people thinking home prices can continue to go up forever when we’ve seen, historically, periods that they don’t?”


https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/23/orange-county-home-prices-could-fall-14-says-chapman-forecast/

Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: TestingIrvine on June 23, 2022, 05:05:51 PM
Considering homes were trending at $800psf, 14% actually is not bad.

Im sticking to my prediction of prices falling close to Q3 2021 values.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Davidlee199 on June 29, 2022, 03:24:37 PM
See what the federal reserve said.  Don’t fight the Fed!!
https://fortune.com/2022/06/16/housing-market-reset-federal-reserve-could-see-home-prices-fall/

Keep in mind 50% houses in Irvine are rentals. It makes no sense for landlords to keep the rentals if home prices are falling.  Many China FCBs landlords are selling now as rates on their 3/5 years mortgages are about to reset to 6-7% this year.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: irvinehomeowner on June 29, 2022, 03:52:58 PM
See what the federal reserve said.  Don’t fight the Fed!!
https://fortune.com/2022/06/16/housing-market-reset-federal-reserve-could-see-home-prices-fall/

Keep in mind 50% houses in Irvine are rentals. It makes no sense for landlords to keep the rentals if home prices are falling.  Many China FCBs landlords are selling now as rates on their 3/5 years mortgages are about to reset to 6-7% this year.

But what about the ones who locked in at lower fixed rates?
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: zovall on June 29, 2022, 03:59:24 PM
Keep in mind 50% houses in Irvine are rentals.

This seems awfully high. Does anyone have actual numbers on this?
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on June 29, 2022, 04:42:29 PM
Keep in mind 50% houses in Irvine are rentals.

This seems awfully high. Does anyone have actual numbers on this?

We could back into the number.

Irvine by type of home:
SFR & Townhome ~ 55%
Apts & Mobile Home ~ 45%

Irvine by ownership rate:
Owner ~ 44%
Renter ~ 56%

https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/irvine/real-estate

So by using crude math, maybe 11% of SFR/Townhomes are rentals. 

It's not precise because we don't know the percentage of vacancies in each property type.  If apartment vacancies are higher than SFR/Townhomes, which seems likely, then maybe 14-15% of Irvine SFR/Townhomes are rentals.



Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: irvinehomeowner on June 29, 2022, 04:46:48 PM
As much as I would like to see 20%+ drops for Irvine... based on history... doesn't seem like that can happen in 1 year.

Most of the votes are flat... so maybe I need a poll for 5 years from now since that seems like the magic timeframe for LL.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on June 30, 2022, 04:33:52 PM
Wow.... More #brokenclocks than you can shake a stick at.  Even the California Association of Realtors agrees with me!!  For shame! For shame!

Southern California housing prices will fall, some experts say. The question is how much

“It’s noteworthy,” said Jordan Levine, chief economist at the California Assn. of Realtors. “Prices are going to go down.”

Levine is still putting the final touches on a forecast to be released in July. But for now, he expects the California median sales price for all of 2022 to be up 9.7% from a year earlier, a sharp slowdown from the nearly 20% growth seen in 2021.

Then in 2023, he expects the Federal Reserve’s actions to fight inflation will cause a mild recession and the combination of job losses and higher rates will cause the statewide median price to fall 7.1% compared with this year, with similar declines in Southern California specifically.

Others that recently shifted forecasts to include home price declines in 2023 are Capital Economics, an international economic research firm, and John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine.

In May, John Burns started forecasting that both national and Southern California prices would decline next year, in part because the firm sees a recession as increasingly likely.

In 2023, the consulting firm expects declines in the mid single digits in Los Angeles and Orange counties and for prices to fall in the high single digit range in the Inland Empire.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said prices could fall even absent a recession.

But if rates rise to around 6.25% or 6.5% and hold there, Zandi said, Southern California prices would probably fall around 5% without a recession and potentially as much as 10% with a recession.


--------------------------------
LA Times article without paywall
https://archive.ph/1hZRV#selection-2143.0-2143.195
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Yousr on June 30, 2022, 09:46:52 PM
Wow.... More #brokenclocks than you can shake a stick at.  Even the California Association of Realtors agrees with me!!  For shame! For shame!

Southern California housing prices will fall, some experts say. The question is how much

“It’s noteworthy,” said Jordan Levine, chief economist at the California Assn. of Realtors. “Prices are going to go down.”

Levine is still putting the final touches on a forecast to be released in July. But for now, he expects the California median sales price for all of 2022 to be up 9.7% from a year earlier, a sharp slowdown from the nearly 20% growth seen in 2021.

Then in 2023, he expects the Federal Reserve’s actions to fight inflation will cause a mild recession and the combination of job losses and higher rates will cause the statewide median price to fall 7.1% compared with this year, with similar declines in Southern California specifically.

Others that recently shifted forecasts to include home price declines in 2023 are Capital Economics, an international economic research firm, and John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine.

In May, John Burns started forecasting that both national and Southern California prices would decline next year, in part because the firm sees a recession as increasingly likely.

In 2023, the consulting firm expects declines in the mid single digits in Los Angeles and Orange counties and for prices to fall in the high single digit range in the Inland Empire.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said prices could fall even absent a recession.

But if rates rise to around 6.25% or 6.5% and hold there, Zandi said, Southern California prices would probably fall around 5% without a recession and potentially as much as 10% with a recession.


--------------------------------
LA Times article without paywall
https://archive.ph/1hZRV#selection-2143.0-2143.195

So a 10% increase in 2022 followed by a 7% decline in 2023 is what you consider agreeing with you  :)
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: CalBears96 on June 30, 2022, 10:37:43 PM
Wow.... More #brokenclocks than you can shake a stick at.  Even the California Association of Realtors agrees with me!!  For shame! For shame!

Southern California housing prices will fall, some experts say. The question is how much

“It’s noteworthy,” said Jordan Levine, chief economist at the California Assn. of Realtors. “Prices are going to go down.”

Levine is still putting the final touches on a forecast to be released in July. But for now, he expects the California median sales price for all of 2022 to be up 9.7% from a year earlier, a sharp slowdown from the nearly 20% growth seen in 2021.

Then in 2023, he expects the Federal Reserve’s actions to fight inflation will cause a mild recession and the combination of job losses and higher rates will cause the statewide median price to fall 7.1% compared with this year, with similar declines in Southern California specifically.

Others that recently shifted forecasts to include home price declines in 2023 are Capital Economics, an international economic research firm, and John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine.

In May, John Burns started forecasting that both national and Southern California prices would decline next year, in part because the firm sees a recession as increasingly likely.

In 2023, the consulting firm expects declines in the mid single digits in Los Angeles and Orange counties and for prices to fall in the high single digit range in the Inland Empire.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said prices could fall even absent a recession.

But if rates rise to around 6.25% or 6.5% and hold there, Zandi said, Southern California prices would probably fall around 5% without a recession and potentially as much as 10% with a recession.


--------------------------------
LA Times article without paywall
https://archive.ph/1hZRV#selection-2143.0-2143.195

You are so full of shit, Liar. You said housing would decrease in 2022, not 2023. He's agreeing with the rest of us, not you. We all said that housing price would peak in mid 2022 and then would flatten and decline after that.

Even when you cherry pick, you can't do it right.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: nosuchreality on July 01, 2022, 06:53:44 AM
Yippie, $1.75M instead of $1.9M if we have a recession.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: zovall on July 01, 2022, 02:51:25 PM
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: WTTCHMN on July 01, 2022, 03:28:42 PM
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.

It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on July 01, 2022, 04:22:02 PM
CalBears: You said housing would decrease in 2022, not 2023.

Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

Is the pressure starting to get to you?
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on July 01, 2022, 04:32:21 PM
So a 10% increase in 2022 followed by a 7% decline in 2023 is what you consider agreeing with you  :)

Yes!  If the housing bust only lasts one year, then we'll all be sitting pretty in 2024.  Unfortunately, Orange County has had price declines in about 10 of the past 30 years - 1/3 of the time - because housing busts tend to last about 5-6 years in length. 

If you are saying this time will be different, well, then the burden is on you to explain why. :)
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: CalBears96 on July 01, 2022, 04:47:09 PM
CalBears: You said housing would decrease in 2022, not 2023.

Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

Is the pressure starting to get to you?

What pressure are you talking about? Are you dumb? Still can't admit you're wrong?
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on July 01, 2022, 04:59:46 PM
CalBears: You said housing would decrease in 2022, not 2023.

Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

Is the pressure starting to get to you?

What pressure are you talking about? Are you dumb? Still can't admit you're wrong?

I don't know.  You recently claimed to have predicted a price decline in the second half of 2022, which I quickly showed wasn't true with your own post.  Now you're claiming I predicted something, which anybody can go back one page on this thread to see is not true.  It seems that something is eating away at you.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: CalBears96 on July 01, 2022, 06:34:56 PM
So you're still full of shit, Liar.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Yousr on July 02, 2022, 12:31:03 AM
So a 10% increase in 2022 followed by a 7% decline in 2023 is what you consider agreeing with you  :)

Yes!  If the housing bust only lasts one year, then we'll all be sitting pretty in 2024.  Unfortunately, Orange County has had price declines in about 10 of the past 30 years - 1/3 of the time - because housing busts tend to last about 5-6 years in length. 

If you are saying this time will be different, well, then the burden is on you to explain why. :)


I think that even in the worst case scenario that this bust lasts for 5-6 years, just  by considering how much the run up in prices have been over the past couple of years it was completely worth it to buy anytime in 2018, 2019, 2020 and the larger part of 2021. The declines in Irvine are single digit historically and even in five years shouldn’t be more than 50%. Now considering the crazy inflation numbers and the obscenely low interest rates in the past. Borrowing a million bucks and holding doesn’t seem such a risky proposition to me specially for a first time buyer
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 02, 2022, 09:50:46 AM
The price decline prediction depends on which time period we are talking about.  Are we talking about where prices were at the beginning of 2022 or at the very peak which happened in April/May?  If we are talking using prices at the beginning of 2022 then I think prices will probably be flat to up to 5% down but if we are talking about from April/May then we may be talking about price declines of from 10% to up to 15% since prices in April/May were up about 10% from the beginning of 2022.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: zubs on July 02, 2022, 12:14:41 PM
LL knows he's full of shit.
He just trolling u.
why do you react is the real question....why you letting him in?

It's not him that's the problem.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: OCtoSV on July 02, 2022, 02:20:58 PM
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.

It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...

I make this point all the time - Irvine is a smokin deal if remote works for you. The higher you go the harder that is to pull off, and all the biggies want people back in the office. Saratoga is full of (mostly) Asian/South Asian CEOs and some very nice wineries, and over the hill is Santa Cruz. Cupertino is the original aspirational Asian/South Asian suburb. I did some alumni recruiting for the Viterbi School of Engineering and they held a separate session just for the Cupertino high schools. I would wager that the Bay area’s top high schools in aggregate get more UC/USC admit slots than SoCals best. Maybe Stanford/Ivies too.

I’m down here right now and it is such a refreshing change, even watching the local news. It feels so much more relaxed and less serious.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Davidlee199 on July 03, 2022, 12:54:46 PM
Don’t expect more people are moving down to Irvine from the Bay Area.  Apple/Google is asking all employees to work at the office min 2 days a week.  Recession is coming, employees prefer to hand out with their managers and make sure their jobs are safe.  2nd tier tech companies are laying off people. As of late June, more than 22,000 workers in the U.S. tech sector have been laid off in mass job cuts so far in 2022,
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: OCtoSV on July 04, 2022, 08:12:10 AM
Don’t expect more people are moving down to Irvine from the Bay Area.  Apple/Google is asking all employees to work at the office min 2 days a week.  Recession is coming, employees prefer to hand out with their managers and make sure their jobs are safe.  2nd tier tech companies are laying off people. As of late June, more than 22,000 workers in the U.S. tech sector have been laid off in mass job cuts so far in 2022,

Intel and NVIDIA both implemented hiring freezes. If remote drove up Irvine prices they will come down as much, if not overshoot. NVIDIA down 48% this year.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Sidehussle on July 04, 2022, 10:59:37 AM
The price decline prediction depends on which time period we are talking about.  Are we talking about where prices were at the beginning of 2022 or at the very peak which happened in April/May?  If we are talking using prices at the beginning of 2022 then I think prices will probably be flat to up to 5% down but if we are talking about from April/May then we may be talking about price declines of from 10% to up to 15% since prices in April/May were up about 10% from the beginning of 2022.

Makes most sense to measure year over year declines /increases. What is the Irvine percent change June 2021 vs June 2022?
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: ThirtySomethingWEquity on July 06, 2022, 12:47:13 PM
Don’t expect more people are moving down to Irvine from the Bay Area.  Apple/Google is asking all employees to work at the office min 2 days a week.  Recession is coming, employees prefer to hand out with their managers and make sure their jobs are safe.  2nd tier tech companies are laying off people. As of late June, more than 22,000 workers in the U.S. tech sector have been laid off in mass job cuts so far in 2022,

Intel and NVIDIA both implemented hiring freezes. If remote drove up Irvine prices they will come down as much, if not overshoot. NVIDIA down 48% this year.

A lot of the reported "hiring freezes" aren't freezes, they're reallocation of headcount, they're a "freeze" in some departments and slowing growth in others, etc.  Even Meta is unfreezing at this point, though they are going to be hiring slower.  Still allowing remote from what I've heard. 

G and Amazon both have big offices in Irvine, and Aliso has MSFT which is small but growing.  You can bet that people will want to work out of those offices if prices go back to sanity.  I do think G and Amazon pay less for SoCal compared to the Bay area, but not by much.

However, most people at tech companies are compensated with stock, and what the RSUs giveth, they RSU's taketh away.  So even well paid tech workers coming down to OC are going to have smaller down payments for a good while, which should deflate things some.  I'm in the camp of thinking 10-15% down from peak in the next 18 months.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 06, 2022, 01:58:45 PM
The price decline prediction depends on which time period we are talking about.  Are we talking about where prices were at the beginning of 2022 or at the very peak which happened in April/May?  If we are talking using prices at the beginning of 2022 then I think prices will probably be flat to up to 5% down but if we are talking about from April/May then we may be talking about price declines of from 10% to up to 15% since prices in April/May were up about 10% from the beginning of 2022.

Makes most sense to measure year over year declines /increases. What is the Irvine percent change June 2021 vs June 2022?

If we compare June 2021 vs June 2022 then prices are up over 20%.  If we look at the peak in pricing which happened in April 2022 then we are down about 3-5% but still up over 5% from the beginning of the year.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Agent Joe on July 10, 2022, 06:01:43 PM
It's fun to speculate but the truth is no one knows. I personally believe that Irvine will hold up very well in any kind of market e.g. up, down, sideways, major crash. Think of Irvine as the S&P500 index.

To someone's comment about FCB having to sell because their 5-year ARM is about to skyrocket, he must have forgotten what the "C" stands for in "FCB". IMHO, there would be a very small percentage of foreign landlords needing to sell and that would have little effect on the overall market. In fact, the foreign landlords are one of the reasons that the Irvine market will hold up better because they are just diversifying and parking their "cash" here. They are mostly not leveraging heavily or speculating like some local investors would.

Now my question is...under what conditions would you start buying if you were a long-term investor?
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on July 11, 2022, 01:00:37 PM
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.


It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...

I make this point all the time - Irvine is a smokin deal if remote works for you. The higher you go the harder that is to pull off, and all the biggies want people back in the office. Saratoga is full of (mostly) Asian/South Asian CEOs and some very nice wineries, and over the hill is Santa Cruz. Cupertino is the original aspirational Asian/South Asian suburb. I did some alumni recruiting for the Viterbi School of Engineering and they held a separate session just for the Cupertino high schools. I would wager that the Bay area’s top high schools in aggregate get more UC/USC admit slots than SoCals best. Maybe Stanford/Ivies too.

I’m down here right now and it is such a refreshing change, even watching the local news. It feels so much more relaxed and less serious.

You probably already know this, but San Francisco prices are already down from 2021:

Home Prices Are Starting to Buckle in Tech-Fueled San Francisco

The median house price in the city dropped 3% from a year earlier to $1.89 million in June, according to a report Thursday by brokerage Compass Inc., after cresting above a record $2 million in the previous three months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/san-francisco-home-prices-start-to-fall-as-headwinds-mount?srnd=premium

The Bay Area Housing Market Is Cooling More Rapidly Than Anywhere Else in the Country

Five of the 10 U.S. housing markets that have cooled fastest this year are in northern California–San Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, Sacramento and Stockton

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-markets-cooling-fastest-bay-area-2022/
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: OCtoSV on July 11, 2022, 01:35:05 PM
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.


It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...

I make this point all the time - Irvine is a smokin deal if remote works for you. The higher you go the harder that is to pull off, and all the biggies want people back in the office. Saratoga is full of (mostly) Asian/South Asian CEOs and some very nice wineries, and over the hill is Santa Cruz. Cupertino is the original aspirational Asian/South Asian suburb. I did some alumni recruiting for the Viterbi School of Engineering and they held a separate session just for the Cupertino high schools. I would wager that the Bay area’s top high schools in aggregate get more UC/USC admit slots than SoCals best. Maybe Stanford/Ivies too.

I’m down here right now and it is such a refreshing change, even watching the local news. It feels so much more relaxed and less serious.

You probably already know this, but San Francisco prices are already down from 2021:

Home Prices Are Starting to Buckle in Tech-Fueled San Francisco

The median house price in the city dropped 3% from a year earlier to $1.89 million in June, according to a report Thursday by brokerage Compass Inc., after cresting above a record $2 million in the previous three months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/san-francisco-home-prices-start-to-fall-as-headwinds-mount?srnd=premium

The Bay Area Housing Market Is Cooling More Rapidly Than Anywhere Else in the Country

Five of the 10 U.S. housing markets that have cooled fastest this year are in northern California–San Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, Sacramento and Stockton

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-markets-cooling-fastest-bay-area-2022/

SF is cratering - rents down there 26% as well. Silicon Valley housing market has stalled to some extent though the $4M+ market which is usually mostly cash transactions is still robust. I am firmly convinced that rates are headed to 10% in order to puncture housing specualtion, and I look forward to buying my south OC retirement pad in a few years at 10%+ rates and a steep discount to current pricing.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 11, 2022, 01:47:06 PM
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.


It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...

I make this point all the time - Irvine is a smokin deal if remote works for you. The higher you go the harder that is to pull off, and all the biggies want people back in the office. Saratoga is full of (mostly) Asian/South Asian CEOs and some very nice wineries, and over the hill is Santa Cruz. Cupertino is the original aspirational Asian/South Asian suburb. I did some alumni recruiting for the Viterbi School of Engineering and they held a separate session just for the Cupertino high schools. I would wager that the Bay area’s top high schools in aggregate get more UC/USC admit slots than SoCals best. Maybe Stanford/Ivies too.

I’m down here right now and it is such a refreshing change, even watching the local news. It feels so much more relaxed and less serious.

You probably already know this, but San Francisco prices are already down from 2021:

Home Prices Are Starting to Buckle in Tech-Fueled San Francisco

The median house price in the city dropped 3% from a year earlier to $1.89 million in June, according to a report Thursday by brokerage Compass Inc., after cresting above a record $2 million in the previous three months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/san-francisco-home-prices-start-to-fall-as-headwinds-mount?srnd=premium

The Bay Area Housing Market Is Cooling More Rapidly Than Anywhere Else in the Country

Five of the 10 U.S. housing markets that have cooled fastest this year are in northern California–San Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, Sacramento and Stockton

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-markets-cooling-fastest-bay-area-2022/

SF is cratering - rents down there 26% as well. Silicon Valley housing market has stalled to some extent though the $4M+ market which is usually mostly cash transactions is still robust. I am firmly convinced that rates are headed to 10% in order to puncture housing specualtion, and I look forward to buying my south OC retirement pad in a few years at 10%+ rates and a steep discount to current pricing.

You can't have mortgage rates (which are longer term) be 10% if we are in a recession and the yield curve is inverted.  Can the Fed bump the Fed Funds rates to 5%, 6%, or 8%?  Maybe but that's what short term rates are.  To get mortgage interest rates to 10% you'll need inflation to increase materially from today and if we are in recession or going into one that won't happen. Mortgage rates have already begun to roll over a bit as is. Hard to have high mortgage rates when there is demand destruction due to people losing their jobs.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on July 12, 2022, 10:13:53 AM
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.


It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...

I make this point all the time - Irvine is a smokin deal if remote works for you. The higher you go the harder that is to pull off, and all the biggies want people back in the office. Saratoga is full of (mostly) Asian/South Asian CEOs and some very nice wineries, and over the hill is Santa Cruz. Cupertino is the original aspirational Asian/South Asian suburb. I did some alumni recruiting for the Viterbi School of Engineering and they held a separate session just for the Cupertino high schools. I would wager that the Bay area’s top high schools in aggregate get more UC/USC admit slots than SoCals best. Maybe Stanford/Ivies too.

I’m down here right now and it is such a refreshing change, even watching the local news. It feels so much more relaxed and less serious.

You probably already know this, but San Francisco prices are already down from 2021:

Home Prices Are Starting to Buckle in Tech-Fueled San Francisco

The median house price in the city dropped 3% from a year earlier to $1.89 million in June, according to a report Thursday by brokerage Compass Inc., after cresting above a record $2 million in the previous three months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/san-francisco-home-prices-start-to-fall-as-headwinds-mount?srnd=premium

The Bay Area Housing Market Is Cooling More Rapidly Than Anywhere Else in the Country

Five of the 10 U.S. housing markets that have cooled fastest this year are in northern California–San Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, Sacramento and Stockton

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-markets-cooling-fastest-bay-area-2022/

SF is cratering - rents down there 26% as well. Silicon Valley housing market has stalled to some extent though the $4M+ market which is usually mostly cash transactions is still robust. I am firmly convinced that rates are headed to 10% in order to puncture housing specualtion, and I look forward to buying my south OC retirement pad in a few years at 10%+ rates and a steep discount to current pricing.

You can't have mortgage rates (which are longer term) be 10% if we are in a recession and the yield curve is inverted.  Can the Fed bump the Fed Funds rates to 5%, 6%, or 8%?  Maybe but that's what short term rates are.  To get mortgage interest rates to 10% you'll need inflation to increase materially from today and if we are in recession or going into one that won't happen. Mortgage rates have already begun to roll over a bit as is. Hard to have high mortgage rates when there is demand destruction due to people losing their jobs.

Either way housing is screwed.  Rising unemployment is just as bad for home prices as rising rates.

Treasury Curve Inversion Deepens to Level Not Seen Since 2007

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-curve-inversion-deepens-level-110837331.html
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 12, 2022, 10:44:37 AM
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.


It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...

I make this point all the time - Irvine is a smokin deal if remote works for you. The higher you go the harder that is to pull off, and all the biggies want people back in the office. Saratoga is full of (mostly) Asian/South Asian CEOs and some very nice wineries, and over the hill is Santa Cruz. Cupertino is the original aspirational Asian/South Asian suburb. I did some alumni recruiting for the Viterbi School of Engineering and they held a separate session just for the Cupertino high schools. I would wager that the Bay area’s top high schools in aggregate get more UC/USC admit slots than SoCals best. Maybe Stanford/Ivies too.

I’m down here right now and it is such a refreshing change, even watching the local news. It feels so much more relaxed and less serious.

You probably already know this, but San Francisco prices are already down from 2021:

Home Prices Are Starting to Buckle in Tech-Fueled San Francisco

The median house price in the city dropped 3% from a year earlier to $1.89 million in June, according to a report Thursday by brokerage Compass Inc., after cresting above a record $2 million in the previous three months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/san-francisco-home-prices-start-to-fall-as-headwinds-mount?srnd=premium

The Bay Area Housing Market Is Cooling More Rapidly Than Anywhere Else in the Country

Five of the 10 U.S. housing markets that have cooled fastest this year are in northern California–San Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, Sacramento and Stockton

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-markets-cooling-fastest-bay-area-2022/

SF is cratering - rents down there 26% as well. Silicon Valley housing market has stalled to some extent though the $4M+ market which is usually mostly cash transactions is still robust. I am firmly convinced that rates are headed to 10% in order to puncture housing specualtion, and I look forward to buying my south OC retirement pad in a few years at 10%+ rates and a steep discount to current pricing.

You can't have mortgage rates (which are longer term) be 10% if we are in a recession and the yield curve is inverted.  Can the Fed bump the Fed Funds rates to 5%, 6%, or 8%?  Maybe but that's what short term rates are.  To get mortgage interest rates to 10% you'll need inflation to increase materially from today and if we are in recession or going into one that won't happen. Mortgage rates have already begun to roll over a bit as is. Hard to have high mortgage rates when there is demand destruction due to people losing their jobs.

Either way housing is screwed.  Rising unemployment is just as bad for home prices as rising rates.

Treasury Curve Inversion Deepens to Level Not Seen Since 2007

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-curve-inversion-deepens-level-110837331.html

True but it depends which kind of jobs get cut and unfortunately the lower level jobs get cut first.  There are still 2x as many job openings as unemployed people but I'm sure that will shrink in time but the job market is way stronger today than it was back in 2006-2007.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: OCtoSV on July 12, 2022, 12:22:29 PM
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.


It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...

I make this point all the time - Irvine is a smokin deal if remote works for you. The higher you go the harder that is to pull off, and all the biggies want people back in the office. Saratoga is full of (mostly) Asian/South Asian CEOs and some very nice wineries, and over the hill is Santa Cruz. Cupertino is the original aspirational Asian/South Asian suburb. I did some alumni recruiting for the Viterbi School of Engineering and they held a separate session just for the Cupertino high schools. I would wager that the Bay area’s top high schools in aggregate get more UC/USC admit slots than SoCals best. Maybe Stanford/Ivies too.

I’m down here right now and it is such a refreshing change, even watching the local news. It feels so much more relaxed and less serious.

You probably already know this, but San Francisco prices are already down from 2021:

Home Prices Are Starting to Buckle in Tech-Fueled San Francisco

The median house price in the city dropped 3% from a year earlier to $1.89 million in June, according to a report Thursday by brokerage Compass Inc., after cresting above a record $2 million in the previous three months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/san-francisco-home-prices-start-to-fall-as-headwinds-mount?srnd=premium

The Bay Area Housing Market Is Cooling More Rapidly Than Anywhere Else in the Country

Five of the 10 U.S. housing markets that have cooled fastest this year are in northern California–San Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, Sacramento and Stockton

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-markets-cooling-fastest-bay-area-2022/

SF is cratering - rents down there 26% as well. Silicon Valley housing market has stalled to some extent though the $4M+ market which is usually mostly cash transactions is still robust. I am firmly convinced that rates are headed to 10% in order to puncture housing specualtion, and I look forward to buying my south OC retirement pad in a few years at 10%+ rates and a steep discount to current pricing.

You can't have mortgage rates (which are longer term) be 10% if we are in a recession and the yield curve is inverted.  Can the Fed bump the Fed Funds rates to 5%, 6%, or 8%?  Maybe but that's what short term rates are.  To get mortgage interest rates to 10% you'll need inflation to increase materially from today and if we are in recession or going into one that won't happen. Mortgage rates have already begun to roll over a bit as is. Hard to have high mortgage rates when there is demand destruction due to people losing their jobs.
Your conventional thinking logic is flawed as you're not accounting for the impact of MBS QT, which hasn't even started yet (what will the securitization market look like), nor are you considering mortage rates traded at a discount to inflation only 3 times in the last 50 years as so astutely analyzed in Lansners's recent article:
https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/ (http://[url)[/url]

Our parents faced double digit mort rates in a recession - so will we
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Ready2Downsize on July 12, 2022, 03:02:17 PM
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.


It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...

I make this point all the time - Irvine is a smokin deal if remote works for you. The higher you go the harder that is to pull off, and all the biggies want people back in the office. Saratoga is full of (mostly) Asian/South Asian CEOs and some very nice wineries, and over the hill is Santa Cruz. Cupertino is the original aspirational Asian/South Asian suburb. I did some alumni recruiting for the Viterbi School of Engineering and they held a separate session just for the Cupertino high schools. I would wager that the Bay area’s top high schools in aggregate get more UC/USC admit slots than SoCals best. Maybe Stanford/Ivies too.

I’m down here right now and it is such a refreshing change, even watching the local news. It feels so much more relaxed and less serious.

You probably already know this, but San Francisco prices are already down from 2021:

Home Prices Are Starting to Buckle in Tech-Fueled San Francisco

The median house price in the city dropped 3% from a year earlier to $1.89 million in June, according to a report Thursday by brokerage Compass Inc., after cresting above a record $2 million in the previous three months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/san-francisco-home-prices-start-to-fall-as-headwinds-mount?srnd=premium

The Bay Area Housing Market Is Cooling More Rapidly Than Anywhere Else in the Country

Five of the 10 U.S. housing markets that have cooled fastest this year are in northern California–San Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, Sacramento and Stockton

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-markets-cooling-fastest-bay-area-2022/

SF is cratering - rents down there 26% as well. Silicon Valley housing market has stalled to some extent though the $4M+ market which is usually mostly cash transactions is still robust. I am firmly convinced that rates are headed to 10% in order to puncture housing specualtion, and I look forward to buying my south OC retirement pad in a few years at 10%+ rates and a steep discount to current pricing.

You can't have mortgage rates (which are longer term) be 10% if we are in a recession and the yield curve is inverted.  Can the Fed bump the Fed Funds rates to 5%, 6%, or 8%?  Maybe but that's what short term rates are.  To get mortgage interest rates to 10% you'll need inflation to increase materially from today and if we are in recession or going into one that won't happen. Mortgage rates have already begun to roll over a bit as is. Hard to have high mortgage rates when there is demand destruction due to people losing their jobs.
Your conventional thinking logic is flawed as you're not accounting for the impact of MBS QT, which hasn't even started yet (what will the securitization market look like), nor are you considering mortage rates traded at a discount to inflation only 3 times in the last 50 years as so astutely analyzed in Lansners's recent article:
[url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/ (http://[url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/)[/url]

Our parents faced double digit mort rates in a recession - so will we

I experienced that myself but unless oil goes back up, we're not going to 10% interest rates.

Times are different. Inflation that peaked in 1981 came after WWII. Everyone was buying like crazy with household formation increasing and new homes everywhere. Most of my friends had families with 3-4 kids and ONE parent working. They had ONE car. We didn't have credit cards with high balances available. We got lots of dept store cards. I think my sears card had a $300 credit limit. LOL! But as we bought more, moms entered the work force for extra spending money and why not?, credit cards got used more, balance limits went up and spend we did. At the time credit cards payments were tax deductible. Of course, we had to add another car for the second driver and then a bigger house to keep up with the Jones's and the furnishings too.

But now we put off having kids and even then we have maybe 2. Cars last longer (we were LUCKY to get four years out of some of those cars from the 60's/70's). Every four years another two cars and 5-6 mouths to feed and clothe, not 1-4 like now and lots of homeowners are not going to be moving up since they've got low rate mortgages.

The fed may indeed raise rates but inflation is all but done. The fed is going to be scratching their head over their new issue..... DEFLATION.

Just as I suspected... chicken breasts are 99 cents a pound next ad here. Eggs won't be far behind and gas can't get out of it's own way it's dropping so quick.

Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 12, 2022, 03:07:22 PM
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.


It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...

I make this point all the time - Irvine is a smokin deal if remote works for you. The higher you go the harder that is to pull off, and all the biggies want people back in the office. Saratoga is full of (mostly) Asian/South Asian CEOs and some very nice wineries, and over the hill is Santa Cruz. Cupertino is the original aspirational Asian/South Asian suburb. I did some alumni recruiting for the Viterbi School of Engineering and they held a separate session just for the Cupertino high schools. I would wager that the Bay area’s top high schools in aggregate get more UC/USC admit slots than SoCals best. Maybe Stanford/Ivies too.

I’m down here right now and it is such a refreshing change, even watching the local news. It feels so much more relaxed and less serious.

You probably already know this, but San Francisco prices are already down from 2021:

Home Prices Are Starting to Buckle in Tech-Fueled San Francisco

The median house price in the city dropped 3% from a year earlier to $1.89 million in June, according to a report Thursday by brokerage Compass Inc., after cresting above a record $2 million in the previous three months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/san-francisco-home-prices-start-to-fall-as-headwinds-mount?srnd=premium

The Bay Area Housing Market Is Cooling More Rapidly Than Anywhere Else in the Country

Five of the 10 U.S. housing markets that have cooled fastest this year are in northern California–San Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, Sacramento and Stockton

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-markets-cooling-fastest-bay-area-2022/

SF is cratering - rents down there 26% as well. Silicon Valley housing market has stalled to some extent though the $4M+ market which is usually mostly cash transactions is still robust. I am firmly convinced that rates are headed to 10% in order to puncture housing specualtion, and I look forward to buying my south OC retirement pad in a few years at 10%+ rates and a steep discount to current pricing.

You can't have mortgage rates (which are longer term) be 10% if we are in a recession and the yield curve is inverted.  Can the Fed bump the Fed Funds rates to 5%, 6%, or 8%?  Maybe but that's what short term rates are.  To get mortgage interest rates to 10% you'll need inflation to increase materially from today and if we are in recession or going into one that won't happen. Mortgage rates have already begun to roll over a bit as is. Hard to have high mortgage rates when there is demand destruction due to people losing their jobs.
Your conventional thinking logic is flawed as you're not accounting for the impact of MBS QT, which hasn't even started yet (what will the securitization market look like), nor are you considering mortage rates traded at a discount to inflation only 3 times in the last 50 years as so astutely analyzed in Lansners's recent article:
[url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/ (http://[url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/)[/url]

Our parents faced double digit mort rates in a recession - so will we

I don't agree with you.  The longer term rates are the ones that anticipate inflation and now we have an inverted yield curve which basically signals that a recession is coming with longer term bond rates down over 1/2% from the peak.  The Fed will have to pivot again once they see that inflation reverses.  Not only has oil started to roll over but so have a lot of other commodities, as have car prices and home prices.  Where's the inflation going to come from if all these commodities are rolling over?  Oh and if we get more layoffs, you'll get declining earnings growth by workers.  I have this funny feeling that the Fed will be back cutting rates sometime in 2023.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: zubs on July 12, 2022, 03:38:06 PM
Remember that cost increase I was going to give my customers at the end of the year?
It's looking like that's not happening. 

I may have to cut prices...the horror.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 12, 2022, 04:08:07 PM
Remember that cost increase I was going to give my customers at the end of the year?
It's looking like that's not happening. 

I may have to cut prices...the horror.

Are they selling a decrease in demand?
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: zubs on July 12, 2022, 04:09:29 PM
raw materials is dropping.
Container ships are starting to have more free space....although freight forwarders are still trying to milk it for as long as they can.


I expect demand to go down, but it's supply side that is getting cheaper.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Ready2Downsize on July 13, 2022, 07:49:36 AM
Hot cpi and what is happening to bond yields? They don't think inflation is going up from here.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 13, 2022, 09:22:01 AM
Hot cpi and what is happening to bond yields? They don't think inflation is going up from here.

Longer term bond rates are basically flat.  As I said, the higher the Fed goes on their rates the lower you may see longer term bond rates as more of a recession will get priced in.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: OCtoSV on July 14, 2022, 07:58:41 AM
Hot cpi and what is happening to bond yields? They don't think inflation is going up from here.

Longer term bond rates are basically flat.  As I said, the higher the Fed goes on their rates the lower you may see longer term bond rates as more of a recession will get priced in.
You're completely ignoring the impact of the MBS QT. There will be no runoff with refis dead and no bid. All price signals are beyond distorted courtesy of 15 yrs of QE. All of our asset classes are in the Fed's cross hairs to deflate. I stand by my preciction of 10% on the 30 yr fixed and we'll see it by end of 24/early 25. And we all get to handicap this race right here on TI.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 14, 2022, 09:12:57 AM
Hot cpi and what is happening to bond yields? They don't think inflation is going up from here.

Longer term bond rates are basically flat.  As I said, the higher the Fed goes on their rates the lower you may see longer term bond rates as more of a recession will get priced in.
You're completely ignoring the impact of the MBS QT. There will be no runoff with refis dead and no bid. All price signals are beyond distorted courtesy of 15 yrs of QE. All of our asset classes are in the Fed's cross hairs to deflate. I stand by my preciction of 10% on the 30 yr fixed and we'll see it by end of 24/early 25. And we all get to handicap this race right here on TI.


You do realize that once inflation falls and we are in recession and/or something breaks the Fed will pivot and start cutting rates, right?  The Fed is doing QT as we speak and bond rates have come down 1/2% in the past month, why do you think that is?
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: OCtoSV on July 14, 2022, 09:59:28 AM
Hot cpi and what is happening to bond yields? They don't think inflation is going up from here.

Longer term bond rates are basically flat.  As I said, the higher the Fed goes on their rates the lower you may see longer term bond rates as more of a recession will get priced in.
You're completely ignoring the impact of the MBS QT. There will be no runoff with refis dead and no bid. All price signals are beyond distorted courtesy of 15 yrs of QE. All of our asset classes are in the Fed's cross hairs to deflate. I stand by my preciction of 10% on the 30 yr fixed and we'll see it by end of 24/early 25. And we all get to handicap this race right here on TI.


You do realize that once inflation falls and we are in recession and/or something breaks the Fed will pivot and start cutting rates, right?  The Fed is doing QT as we speak and bond rates have come down 1/2% in the past month, why do you think that is?
They're going right back up this week, but again all these signals are distorted. Do you think Powell is goign to say "ok, the neutral rate is 7% so I can cut now that we're in a recession"? Powell is going to raise rates until that 9.1% print is much much much lower. I don't see how he can maintain a 2% target but it's going to get ugly. Bank on it. Don't fight the Fed is always rule #1. And as Lansner showed the historical premium from Fed Funds to mort rate is ~4%. Grain shortage isn't going away so food inflation will remain elevated, and rents are through the roof, which will keep inflation high
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 14, 2022, 10:44:50 AM
Hot cpi and what is happening to bond yields? They don't think inflation is going up from here.

Longer term bond rates are basically flat.  As I said, the higher the Fed goes on their rates the lower you may see longer term bond rates as more of a recession will get priced in.
You're completely ignoring the impact of the MBS QT. There will be no runoff with refis dead and no bid. All price signals are beyond distorted courtesy of 15 yrs of QE. All of our asset classes are in the Fed's cross hairs to deflate. I stand by my preciction of 10% on the 30 yr fixed and we'll see it by end of 24/early 25. And we all get to handicap this race right here on TI.


You do realize that once inflation falls and we are in recession and/or something breaks the Fed will pivot and start cutting rates, right?  The Fed is doing QT as we speak and bond rates have come down 1/2% in the past month, why do you think that is?
They're going right back up this week, but again all these signals are distorted. Do you think Powell is goign to say "ok, the neutral rate is 7% so I can cut now that we're in a recession"? Powell is going to raise rates until that 9.1% print is much much much lower. I don't see how he can maintain a 2% target but it's going to get ugly. Bank on it. Don't fight the Fed is always rule #1. And as Lansner showed the historical premium from Fed Funds to mort rate is ~4%. Grain shortage isn't going away so food inflation will remain elevated, and rents are through the roof, which will keep inflation high

The Fed won't raise rates to 9% because inflation will have rolled over by that time.  They'll probably end up somewhere around 4% +/- before they start cutting rates sometime next year.  The bond yield curve will continue to grow as they keep moving up rates because we'll go into a deeper recession the higher they go on the rate increases. Have you see how the 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year break even yield curves have decreased?  These are indication of where the market believes inflation rates will be out into the future.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: The California Court Company on July 14, 2022, 10:49:10 AM
recession is inevitable as this point, the question is how severe and for how long….

Hot cpi and what is happening to bond yields? They don't think inflation is going up from here.

Longer term bond rates are basically flat.  As I said, the higher the Fed goes on their rates the lower you may see longer term bond rates as more of a recession will get priced in.
You're completely ignoring the impact of the MBS QT. There will be no runoff with refis dead and no bid. All price signals are beyond distorted courtesy of 15 yrs of QE. All of our asset classes are in the Fed's cross hairs to deflate. I stand by my preciction of 10% on the 30 yr fixed and we'll see it by end of 24/early 25. And we all get to handicap this race right here on TI.


You do realize that once inflation falls and we are in recession and/or something breaks the Fed will pivot and start cutting rates, right?  The Fed is doing QT as we speak and bond rates have come down 1/2% in the past month, why do you think that is?
They're going right back up this week, but again all these signals are distorted. Do you think Powell is goign to say "ok, the neutral rate is 7% so I can cut now that we're in a recession"? Powell is going to raise rates until that 9.1% print is much much much lower. I don't see how he can maintain a 2% target but it's going to get ugly. Bank on it. Don't fight the Fed is always rule #1. And as Lansner showed the historical premium from Fed Funds to mort rate is ~4%. Grain shortage isn't going away so food inflation will remain elevated, and rents are through the roof, which will keep inflation high

The Fed won't raise rates to 9% because inflation will have rolled over by that time.  They'll probably end up somewhere around 4% +/- before they start cutting rates sometime next year.  The bond yield curve will continue to grow as they keep moving up rates because we'll go into a deeper recession the higher they go on the rate increases. Have you see how the 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year break even yield curves have decreased?  These are indication of where the market believes inflation rates will be out into the future.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: OCtoSV on July 14, 2022, 03:46:24 PM
headline in the WSJ today

Mortgage Rates Rise Again After Recording Sharp Drop
The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 5.51% from 5.30%
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: OCtoSV on July 17, 2022, 03:31:49 PM
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-rebound-us-economy-123000032.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALO4B-IAEGUZjT2NPBFeRm2wzoTustXZY4OqmHY1zTkO2vvrj5hfU0jYAgpBTnU-9H3Rkh7jVtpLQsSLhG_R4rwMG0Qp_HCGjA5dcxmcjXytjGMa-ba-Fy4XTD-VVG8XAiqdjEnrWIBH_K-BEZZ3e31JLOc7LEkRWK5IjUkJ1-UK][url]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-rebound-us-economy-123000032.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALO4B-IAEGUZjT2NPBFeRm2wzoTustXZY4OqmHY1zTkO2vvrj5hfU0jYAgpBTnU-9H3Rkh7jVtpLQsSLhG_R4rwMG0Qp_HCGjA5dcxmcjXytjGMa-ba-Fy4XTD-VVG8XAiqdjEnrWIBH_K-BEZZ3e31JLOc7LEkRWK5IjUkJ1-UK (http://[url)[/url]

“The mortgage market had already factored in several additional rounds of the Fed’s rate hike, but may have to adjust a bit higher based on today’s uncomfortable inflation rate,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Compressed-Village on July 17, 2022, 04:06:34 PM
[url]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-rebound-us-economy-123000032.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALO4B-IAEGUZjT2NPBFeRm2wzoTustXZY4OqmHY1zTkO2vvrj5hfU0jYAgpBTnU-9H3Rkh7jVtpLQsSLhG_R4rwMG0Qp_HCGjA5dcxmcjXytjGMa-ba-Fy4XTD-VVG8XAiqdjEnrWIBH_K-BEZZ3e31JLOc7LEkRWK5IjUkJ1-UK]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-rebound-us-economy-123000032.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALO4B-IAEGUZjT2NPBFeRm2wzoTustXZY4OqmHY1zTkO2vvrj5hfU0jYAgpBTnU-9H3Rkh7jVtpLQsSLhG_R4rwMG0Qp_HCGjA5dcxmcjXytjGMa-ba-Fy4XTD-VVG8XAiqdjEnrWIBH_K-BEZZ3e31JLOc7LEkRWK5IjUkJ1-UK][url]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-rebound-us-economy-123000032.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALO4B-IAEGUZjT2NPBFeRm2wzoTustXZY4OqmHY1zTkO2vvrj5hfU0jYAgpBTnU-9H3Rkh7jVtpLQsSLhG_R4rwMG0Qp_HCGjA5dcxmcjXytjGMa-ba-Fy4XTD-VVG8XAiqdjEnrWIBH_K-BEZZ3e31JLOc7LEkRWK5IjUkJ1-UK (http://[url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-rebound-us-economy-123000032.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALO4B-IAEGUZjT2NPBFeRm2wzoTustXZY4OqmHY1zTkO2vvrj5hfU0jYAgpBTnU-9H3Rkh7jVtpLQsSLhG_R4rwMG0Qp_HCGjA5dcxmcjXytjGMa-ba-Fy4XTD-VVG8XAiqdjEnrWIBH_K-BEZZ3e31JLOc7LEkRWK5IjUkJ1-UK)[/url]

“The mortgage market had already factored in several additional rounds of the Fed’s rate hike, but may have to adjust a bit higher based on today’s uncomfortable inflation rate,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

San Jose housing……KABOOMM
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on July 20, 2022, 12:42:39 PM
Home prices always fall in Spring.... Must be seasonal.

The SoCal housing market is cooling. Here’s how far prices have fallen
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-07-19/southern-california-home-prices-and-sales-dropped-in-june-signaling-a-slowdown
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Compressed-Village on July 22, 2022, 08:17:36 AM
We will get back to boring. The hot run is over and now, housing will be  a place to live, a home. I don't mind it getting boring. FWIW, it was one hell of a run. The shinny pool and all those cool upgrades in a house are still things nice to have, at the end of the day, we all need a roof over our heads.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: huuur on July 24, 2022, 04:47:38 PM
How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 24, 2022, 04:53:40 PM
How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: huuur on July 24, 2022, 05:55:38 PM
Good to know!

Found this chart with California housing prices from 1968 to 2022, with mortgage rate and inflation rate next to it.

Helps to put things into perspective



 


Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: sleepy5136 on July 25, 2022, 01:16:51 AM
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.


It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...

I make this point all the time - Irvine is a smokin deal if remote works for you. The higher you go the harder that is to pull off, and all the biggies want people back in the office. Saratoga is full of (mostly) Asian/South Asian CEOs and some very nice wineries, and over the hill is Santa Cruz. Cupertino is the original aspirational Asian/South Asian suburb. I did some alumni recruiting for the Viterbi School of Engineering and they held a separate session just for the Cupertino high schools. I would wager that the Bay area’s top high schools in aggregate get more UC/USC admit slots than SoCals best. Maybe Stanford/Ivies too.

I’m down here right now and it is such a refreshing change, even watching the local news. It feels so much more relaxed and less serious.

You probably already know this, but San Francisco prices are already down from 2021:

Home Prices Are Starting to Buckle in Tech-Fueled San Francisco

The median house price in the city dropped 3% from a year earlier to $1.89 million in June, according to a report Thursday by brokerage Compass Inc., after cresting above a record $2 million in the previous three months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/san-francisco-home-prices-start-to-fall-as-headwinds-mount?srnd=premium

The Bay Area Housing Market Is Cooling More Rapidly Than Anywhere Else in the Country

Five of the 10 U.S. housing markets that have cooled fastest this year are in northern California–San Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, Sacramento and Stockton

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-markets-cooling-fastest-bay-area-2022/

SF is cratering - rents down there 26% as well. Silicon Valley housing market has stalled to some extent though the $4M+ market which is usually mostly cash transactions is still robust. I am firmly convinced that rates are headed to 10% in order to puncture housing specualtion, and I look forward to buying my south OC retirement pad in a few years at 10%+ rates and a steep discount to current pricing.

You can't have mortgage rates (which are longer term) be 10% if we are in a recession and the yield curve is inverted.  Can the Fed bump the Fed Funds rates to 5%, 6%, or 8%?  Maybe but that's what short term rates are.  To get mortgage interest rates to 10% you'll need inflation to increase materially from today and if we are in recession or going into one that won't happen. Mortgage rates have already begun to roll over a bit as is. Hard to have high mortgage rates when there is demand destruction due to people losing their jobs.
Your conventional thinking logic is flawed as you're not accounting for the impact of MBS QT, which hasn't even started yet (what will the securitization market look like), nor are you considering mortage rates traded at a discount to inflation only 3 times in the last 50 years as so astutely analyzed in Lansners's recent article:
[url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/ (http://[url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/)[/url]

Our parents faced double digit mort rates in a recession - so will we

I don't agree with you.  The longer term rates are the ones that anticipate inflation and now we have an inverted yield curve which basically signals that a recession is coming with longer term bond rates down over 1/2% from the peak.  The Fed will have to pivot again once they see that inflation reverses.  Not only has oil started to roll over but so have a lot of other commodities, as have car prices and home prices.  Where's the inflation going to come from if all these commodities are rolling over?  Oh and if we get more layoffs, you'll get declining earnings growth by workers.  I have this funny feeling that the Fed will be back cutting rates sometime in 2023.
1. Rents.
2. Ongoing War. Gas is lower but still up significantly
3. China COVID. Lockdowns there can impact supply chain.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: lnc on July 25, 2022, 07:21:49 AM
How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

I recalled with the new builds, the builders were asking during the peak were around $400/sq.ft.  And after the crash,  most of them were reduced to around $350-$360/sq.ft.  Lambert Ranch was the lowest new build base on price per sq.ft. and was asking about $340 per sq.ft.

The price for existing home were all over the place.  The inventory of existing home were so low after the crash, almost just like now, many still asking in the high $300/sq.ft range.   A few foreclosure at auction did fetch below $300/sq.ft and some short sales were at low $300s/sq.ft., but these are not easily accessible to most buyers. 
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 25, 2022, 08:55:22 AM
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.


It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...

I make this point all the time - Irvine is a smokin deal if remote works for you. The higher you go the harder that is to pull off, and all the biggies want people back in the office. Saratoga is full of (mostly) Asian/South Asian CEOs and some very nice wineries, and over the hill is Santa Cruz. Cupertino is the original aspirational Asian/South Asian suburb. I did some alumni recruiting for the Viterbi School of Engineering and they held a separate session just for the Cupertino high schools. I would wager that the Bay area’s top high schools in aggregate get more UC/USC admit slots than SoCals best. Maybe Stanford/Ivies too.

I’m down here right now and it is such a refreshing change, even watching the local news. It feels so much more relaxed and less serious.

You probably already know this, but San Francisco prices are already down from 2021:

Home Prices Are Starting to Buckle in Tech-Fueled San Francisco

The median house price in the city dropped 3% from a year earlier to $1.89 million in June, according to a report Thursday by brokerage Compass Inc., after cresting above a record $2 million in the previous three months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/san-francisco-home-prices-start-to-fall-as-headwinds-mount?srnd=premium

The Bay Area Housing Market Is Cooling More Rapidly Than Anywhere Else in the Country

Five of the 10 U.S. housing markets that have cooled fastest this year are in northern California–San Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, Sacramento and Stockton

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-markets-cooling-fastest-bay-area-2022/

SF is cratering - rents down there 26% as well. Silicon Valley housing market has stalled to some extent though the $4M+ market which is usually mostly cash transactions is still robust. I am firmly convinced that rates are headed to 10% in order to puncture housing specualtion, and I look forward to buying my south OC retirement pad in a few years at 10%+ rates and a steep discount to current pricing.

You can't have mortgage rates (which are longer term) be 10% if we are in a recession and the yield curve is inverted.  Can the Fed bump the Fed Funds rates to 5%, 6%, or 8%?  Maybe but that's what short term rates are.  To get mortgage interest rates to 10% you'll need inflation to increase materially from today and if we are in recession or going into one that won't happen. Mortgage rates have already begun to roll over a bit as is. Hard to have high mortgage rates when there is demand destruction due to people losing their jobs.
Your conventional thinking logic is flawed as you're not accounting for the impact of MBS QT, which hasn't even started yet (what will the securitization market look like), nor are you considering mortage rates traded at a discount to inflation only 3 times in the last 50 years as so astutely analyzed in Lansners's recent article:
[url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/ (http://[url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/)[/url]

Our parents faced double digit mort rates in a recession - so will we

I don't agree with you.  The longer term rates are the ones that anticipate inflation and now we have an inverted yield curve which basically signals that a recession is coming with longer term bond rates down over 1/2% from the peak.  The Fed will have to pivot again once they see that inflation reverses.  Not only has oil started to roll over but so have a lot of other commodities, as have car prices and home prices.  Where's the inflation going to come from if all these commodities are rolling over?  Oh and if we get more layoffs, you'll get declining earnings growth by workers.  I have this funny feeling that the Fed will be back cutting rates sometime in 2023.
1. Rents.
2. Ongoing War. Gas is lower but still up significantly
3. China COVID. Lockdowns there can impact supply chain.

1. Rents won't go up if we are in recession, rents drop slightly or worst case stay flattish
2. The ongoing war is more of a problem for Europe and as we go into recession the demand for oil/gas drops
3. This is true but the line of container ships waiting outside of the LA/LB port is down over 80% from this time last year so that tells me demand is down because it's not like the port got more efficient
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: OCtoSV on July 25, 2022, 09:00:49 AM
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.


It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...

I make this point all the time - Irvine is a smokin deal if remote works for you. The higher you go the harder that is to pull off, and all the biggies want people back in the office. Saratoga is full of (mostly) Asian/South Asian CEOs and some very nice wineries, and over the hill is Santa Cruz. Cupertino is the original aspirational Asian/South Asian suburb. I did some alumni recruiting for the Viterbi School of Engineering and they held a separate session just for the Cupertino high schools. I would wager that the Bay area’s top high schools in aggregate get more UC/USC admit slots than SoCals best. Maybe Stanford/Ivies too.

I’m down here right now and it is such a refreshing change, even watching the local news. It feels so much more relaxed and less serious.

You probably already know this, but San Francisco prices are already down from 2021:

Home Prices Are Starting to Buckle in Tech-Fueled San Francisco

The median house price in the city dropped 3% from a year earlier to $1.89 million in June, according to a report Thursday by brokerage Compass Inc., after cresting above a record $2 million in the previous three months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/san-francisco-home-prices-start-to-fall-as-headwinds-mount?srnd=premium

The Bay Area Housing Market Is Cooling More Rapidly Than Anywhere Else in the Country

Five of the 10 U.S. housing markets that have cooled fastest this year are in northern California–San Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, Sacramento and Stockton

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-markets-cooling-fastest-bay-area-2022/

SF is cratering - rents down there 26% as well. Silicon Valley housing market has stalled to some extent though the $4M+ market which is usually mostly cash transactions is still robust. I am firmly convinced that rates are headed to 10% in order to puncture housing specualtion, and I look forward to buying my south OC retirement pad in a few years at 10%+ rates and a steep discount to current pricing.

You can't have mortgage rates (which are longer term) be 10% if we are in a recession and the yield curve is inverted.  Can the Fed bump the Fed Funds rates to 5%, 6%, or 8%?  Maybe but that's what short term rates are.  To get mortgage interest rates to 10% you'll need inflation to increase materially from today and if we are in recession or going into one that won't happen. Mortgage rates have already begun to roll over a bit as is. Hard to have high mortgage rates when there is demand destruction due to people losing their jobs.
Your conventional thinking logic is flawed as you're not accounting for the impact of MBS QT, which hasn't even started yet (what will the securitization market look like), nor are you considering mortage rates traded at a discount to inflation only 3 times in the last 50 years as so astutely analyzed in Lansners's recent article:
[url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/ (http://[url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/)[/url]

Our parents faced double digit mort rates in a recession - so will we

I don't agree with you.  The longer term rates are the ones that anticipate inflation and now we have an inverted yield curve which basically signals that a recession is coming with longer term bond rates down over 1/2% from the peak.  The Fed will have to pivot again once they see that inflation reverses.  Not only has oil started to roll over but so have a lot of other commodities, as have car prices and home prices.  Where's the inflation going to come from if all these commodities are rolling over?  Oh and if we get more layoffs, you'll get declining earnings growth by workers.  I have this funny feeling that the Fed will be back cutting rates sometime in 2023.
1. Rents.
2. Ongoing War. Gas is lower but still up significantly
3. China COVID. Lockdowns there can impact supply chain.

There is another China angle I didn't even include in my thesis but that I am uniquely informed on due to exposure to high end datacenter equipment manufacturing: taking mfg out of China means potentially doubling costs. China has no peer in high end/high volume PCBA mfg, and they do it cheaper than anyone else. An endless supply of migrant labor that will always work the overtime and a relentless focus on improvement is cultural and trying to replicate that in MX or MY or VN or wherever will be a Sisyphean quest. Meanwhile we will see all consumer prices rise for virtually everything we buy or service we use as a result.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 25, 2022, 10:36:47 AM
How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

So if I say this, certain people think I'm biased... but this is what I've been saying for years.

Those over 50% drops in Irvine that were predicted never happened. Even 40% is more an exception than the the rule.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: ThirtySomethingWEquity on July 25, 2022, 11:25:12 AM
How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

So if I say this, certain people think I'm biased... but this is what I've been saying for years.

Those over 50% drops in Irvine that were predicted never happened. Even 40% is more an exception than the the rule.

My townhouse I bought in 2009 for ~450k sold for $650k in 2007.  Now, I got it on a short sale and it was trashed at the time, so definitely not typical, but still at least one example of a pretty drastic crash.   
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Cornflakes on July 25, 2022, 11:36:37 AM
Good to know!

Found this chart with California housing prices from 1968 to 2022, with mortgage rate and inflation rate next to it.

Helps to put things into perspective

Thanks. This is good info. Is it from reliable source?

I am no statistician but from the numbers it appears that inflation or mortgage rates do no necessarily have consistent positive or negative impact on home prices. I did find two noteworthy peak-to-peak drop and recovery cycles  from 1991-1998 and 2006-2018.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: The California Court Company on July 25, 2022, 11:58:22 AM
we are heading into a recession despite the change in its definition. it could get deeper post mid terms and bond holders are expecting Fed to pivot and start cutting rates and re-start QE. There is a good chance we end up in a stagflation while 5% CPI becomes the new norm and target. Regardless, the bubble or the boom and bust cycle are just keeping getting bigger over time….the next bubble could be created by negative Fed fund rate…thats one lever the Fed has not pulled yet.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: someguy on July 25, 2022, 12:14:57 PM
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.


It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...

I make this point all the time - Irvine is a smokin deal if remote works for you. The higher you go the harder that is to pull off, and all the biggies want people back in the office. Saratoga is full of (mostly) Asian/South Asian CEOs and some very nice wineries, and over the hill is Santa Cruz. Cupertino is the original aspirational Asian/South Asian suburb. I did some alumni recruiting for the Viterbi School of Engineering and they held a separate session just for the Cupertino high schools. I would wager that the Bay area’s top high schools in aggregate get more UC/USC admit slots than SoCals best. Maybe Stanford/Ivies too.

I’m down here right now and it is such a refreshing change, even watching the local news. It feels so much more relaxed and less serious.

You probably already know this, but San Francisco prices are already down from 2021:

Home Prices Are Starting to Buckle in Tech-Fueled San Francisco

The median house price in the city dropped 3% from a year earlier to $1.89 million in June, according to a report Thursday by brokerage Compass Inc., after cresting above a record $2 million in the previous three months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/san-francisco-home-prices-start-to-fall-as-headwinds-mount?srnd=premium

The Bay Area Housing Market Is Cooling More Rapidly Than Anywhere Else in the Country

Five of the 10 U.S. housing markets that have cooled fastest this year are in northern California–San Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, Sacramento and Stockton

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-markets-cooling-fastest-bay-area-2022/

SF is cratering - rents down there 26% as well. Silicon Valley housing market has stalled to some extent though the $4M+ market which is usually mostly cash transactions is still robust. I am firmly convinced that rates are headed to 10% in order to puncture housing specualtion, and I look forward to buying my south OC retirement pad in a few years at 10%+ rates and a steep discount to current pricing.

You can't have mortgage rates (which are longer term) be 10% if we are in a recession and the yield curve is inverted.  Can the Fed bump the Fed Funds rates to 5%, 6%, or 8%?  Maybe but that's what short term rates are.  To get mortgage interest rates to 10% you'll need inflation to increase materially from today and if we are in recession or going into one that won't happen. Mortgage rates have already begun to roll over a bit as is. Hard to have high mortgage rates when there is demand destruction due to people losing their jobs.
Your conventional thinking logic is flawed as you're not accounting for the impact of MBS QT, which hasn't even started yet (what will the securitization market look like), nor are you considering mortage rates traded at a discount to inflation only 3 times in the last 50 years as so astutely analyzed in Lansners's recent article:
[url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/ (http://[url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/)[/url]

Our parents faced double digit mort rates in a recession - so will we

I don't agree with you.  The longer term rates are the ones that anticipate inflation and now we have an inverted yield curve which basically signals that a recession is coming with longer term bond rates down over 1/2% from the peak.  The Fed will have to pivot again once they see that inflation reverses.  Not only has oil started to roll over but so have a lot of other commodities, as have car prices and home prices.  Where's the inflation going to come from if all these commodities are rolling over?  Oh and if we get more layoffs, you'll get declining earnings growth by workers.  I have this funny feeling that the Fed will be back cutting rates sometime in 2023.
1. Rents.
2. Ongoing War. Gas is lower but still up significantly
3. China COVID. Lockdowns there can impact supply chain.

There is another China angle I didn't even include in my thesis but that I am uniquely informed on due to exposure to high end datacenter equipment manufacturing: taking mfg out of China means potentially doubling costs. China has no peer in high end/high volume PCBA mfg, and they do it cheaper than anyone else. An endless supply of migrant labor that will always work the overtime and a relentless focus on improvement is cultural and trying to replicate that in MX or MY or VN or wherever will be a Sisyphean quest. Meanwhile we will see all consumer prices rise for virtually everything we buy or service we use as a result.

No doubt producing PCBA in not China will be more expensive for the reasons you mentioned.  The rub is that letting one country control such an essential precursor supply for so many finished goods makes supply chain partners almost exclusively reliant that country.  When it works people in developed countries get new phones annually for cheap and Foxconn keeps it's anti-suicide nets up, but when China decides to shut down sections of it's economy, the supply chain suffers and final products get delayed.  We're seeing the effects of that now.

Same logic for expanding production of semi conductors outside of Taiwan in case god forbid there's a problem in Taiwan.

It seems like the benefit of diversifying the electronics manufacturing to countries outside of China (and Taiwan) may be less about pricing and more about making the supply chain more resilient against the whims of a single country.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 25, 2022, 02:38:20 PM
How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

So if I say this, certain people think I'm biased... but this is what I've been saying for years.

Those over 50% drops in Irvine that were predicted never happened. Even 40% is more an exception than the the rule.

My townhouse I bought in 2009 for ~450k sold for $650k in 2007.  Now, I got it on a short sale and it was trashed at the time, so definitely not typical, but still at least one example of a pretty drastic crash.   

In Irvine? Still 30% drop... not 50%+.

Not many SFRs dropped more than 20%, esp 3CWGs.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: sleepy5136 on July 25, 2022, 02:53:13 PM
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.


It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...

I make this point all the time - Irvine is a smokin deal if remote works for you. The higher you go the harder that is to pull off, and all the biggies want people back in the office. Saratoga is full of (mostly) Asian/South Asian CEOs and some very nice wineries, and over the hill is Santa Cruz. Cupertino is the original aspirational Asian/South Asian suburb. I did some alumni recruiting for the Viterbi School of Engineering and they held a separate session just for the Cupertino high schools. I would wager that the Bay area’s top high schools in aggregate get more UC/USC admit slots than SoCals best. Maybe Stanford/Ivies too.

I’m down here right now and it is such a refreshing change, even watching the local news. It feels so much more relaxed and less serious.

You probably already know this, but San Francisco prices are already down from 2021:

Home Prices Are Starting to Buckle in Tech-Fueled San Francisco

The median house price in the city dropped 3% from a year earlier to $1.89 million in June, according to a report Thursday by brokerage Compass Inc., after cresting above a record $2 million in the previous three months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/san-francisco-home-prices-start-to-fall-as-headwinds-mount?srnd=premium

The Bay Area Housing Market Is Cooling More Rapidly Than Anywhere Else in the Country

Five of the 10 U.S. housing markets that have cooled fastest this year are in northern California–San Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, Sacramento and Stockton

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-markets-cooling-fastest-bay-area-2022/

SF is cratering - rents down there 26% as well. Silicon Valley housing market has stalled to some extent though the $4M+ market which is usually mostly cash transactions is still robust. I am firmly convinced that rates are headed to 10% in order to puncture housing specualtion, and I look forward to buying my south OC retirement pad in a few years at 10%+ rates and a steep discount to current pricing.

You can't have mortgage rates (which are longer term) be 10% if we are in a recession and the yield curve is inverted.  Can the Fed bump the Fed Funds rates to 5%, 6%, or 8%?  Maybe but that's what short term rates are.  To get mortgage interest rates to 10% you'll need inflation to increase materially from today and if we are in recession or going into one that won't happen. Mortgage rates have already begun to roll over a bit as is. Hard to have high mortgage rates when there is demand destruction due to people losing their jobs.
Your conventional thinking logic is flawed as you're not accounting for the impact of MBS QT, which hasn't even started yet (what will the securitization market look like), nor are you considering mortage rates traded at a discount to inflation only 3 times in the last 50 years as so astutely analyzed in Lansners's recent article:
[url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rate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(http://[url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/)[/url]

Our parents faced double digit mort rates in a recession - so will we

I don't agree with you.  The longer term rates are the ones that anticipate inflation and now we have an inverted yield curve which basically signals that a recession is coming with longer term bond rates down over 1/2% from the peak.  The Fed will have to pivot again once they see that inflation reverses.  Not only has oil started to roll over but so have a lot of other commodities, as have car prices and home prices.  Where's the inflation going to come from if all these commodities are rolling over?  Oh and if we get more layoffs, you'll get declining earnings growth by workers.  I have this funny feeling that the Fed will be back cutting rates sometime in 2023.
1. Rents.
2. Ongoing War. Gas is lower but still up significantly
3. China COVID. Lockdowns there can impact supply chain.

1. Rents won't go up if we are in recession, rents drop slightly or worst case stay flattish
2. The ongoing war is more of a problem for Europe and as we go into recession the demand for oil/gas drops
3. This is true but the line of container ships waiting outside of the LA/LB port is down over 80% from this time last year so that tells me demand is down because it's not like the port got more efficient
Recession definition is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. We are probably in one right now and I wouldn't be shocked.

With that said, we have a tight labor market. Unemployment rate is 3.6% I believe? So unless there is a mass layoff that occurs, we will probably run into stagflation and that's where inflation will not "cool" off. Rents will continue to stay high or elevated. Also, we are in a world of globalization. If one part of the world falls, we are not immune to it. Just like how gas prices are going up here and we are complaining about $6 per gallon when Europe is probably $10+ per gallon. If gas prices remain elevated, it means inflation will not cool as everything requires gas to deliver goods to the stores. Price pressures will remain. Consumers are still spending but not at the rate as it use to. Probably has something to do with low unemployment rate. What are you going to do if groceries are up 10-15%? Not eat? Costco can't even tell me when chicken thighs will be on a scheduled basis. They're saying there will continue to be a shortage for the next 6 months. And let's not even get started about China zero covid policy and how much of an impact that can have to the entire world. Ask Elon Musk and he can tell you how that has impacted his business.

I can definitely be wrong about this, but I really don't see any event where inflation will slow down near term unless massive layoffs happen. Especially with China's covid policy and the war going on.  Though once we start seeing layoffs happen and unemployment ticking up I think things will go down and the Fed will then act accordingly to lower rates. But that isn't showing in the data yet.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: huuur on July 25, 2022, 09:44:34 PM
This is posted in another forum by a seasoned investor so in general, I trust this data, but I didn't verify it myself.

His perspective is that this time might be more similar to the 70~80s, the inflation lasted for a few years, and the mortgage rate is high, but the home price keeps increasing despite of high mortgage rate.


Good to know!

Found this chart with California housing prices from 1968 to 2022, with mortgage rate and inflation rate next to it.

Helps to put things into perspective

Thanks. This is good info. Is it from reliable source?

I am no statistician but from the numbers it appears that inflation or mortgage rates do no necessarily have consistent positive or negative impact on home prices. I did find two noteworthy peak-to-peak drop and recovery cycles  from 1991-1998 and 2006-2018.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Mety on July 26, 2022, 02:07:23 PM
Good homes are still selling pretty fast. Maybe we're not getting like $200k+ escalation clause with 50+ offers anymore, but the selling price is still pretty high considering the rates.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: The California Court Company on July 26, 2022, 02:44:51 PM
do you mind to share that forum? you can PM me the link.

This is posted in another forum by a seasoned investor so in general, I trust this data, but I didn't verify it myself.

His perspective is that this time might be more similar to the 70~80s, the inflation lasted for a few years, and the mortgage rate is high, but the home price keeps increasing despite of high mortgage rate.


Good to know!

Found this chart with California housing prices from 1968 to 2022, with mortgage rate and inflation rate next to it.

Helps to put things into perspective

Thanks. This is good info. Is it from reliable source?

I am no statistician but from the numbers it appears that inflation or mortgage rates do no necessarily have consistent positive or negative impact on home prices. I did find two noteworthy peak-to-peak drop and recovery cycles  from 1991-1998 and 2006-2018.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: linus on July 27, 2022, 12:20:28 AM
Found this youtube video where the agent shows the current price lists of all available neighborhoods in OH, PS and EW as of 7/9, seems like no more waiting in priority list if you're ready and not particularly picky

Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: The California Court Company on July 27, 2022, 08:10:26 AM
Quote
接下来的三到四个月将是地产经纪最艰难的时段 可以考虑给自己放假去旅行了
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 27, 2022, 11:25:45 AM
Can I get some translation over here?
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: linus on July 27, 2022, 11:40:40 AM
接下来的三到四个月将是地产经纪最艰难的时段 可以考虑给自己放假去旅行了

The upcoming 3 to 4 months will be the toughest time for real estate agents, it's time to consider giving myself some time off to go on a vacation
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: The California Court Company on July 27, 2022, 11:51:13 AM
Google translate is getting better =)
This comes from an agent that deals with Chinese FCBs who are immune to US interest rates, and if he is pessimistic then it does mean something.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Davidlee199 on July 27, 2022, 04:19:21 PM
This time is NOT similar to the 70~80s. The inflation lasted for a few years due to Federal Reserve didn’t raise Federal funds rate aggressively until Volcker stepped in.  What ended 80s inflation? Volcker raised the Federal funds rate from averaged 11.2% to 20% in 2 years.  81-82 recession was the worst economic downturn in the United States since the Great Depression.  Fed just raised another 0.75 today, 2 months in a row.  Powell is raising rate aggressively to fight Inflation.  Keep in mind New hires are mostly Min. wage workers.  Recession is confirmed once 2Qtr GDP comes in negative tomorrow 7/28….
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: TestingIrvine on July 27, 2022, 07:23:39 PM
This time is NOT similar to the 70~80s. The inflation lasted for a few years due to Federal Reserve didn’t raise Federal funds rate aggressively until Volcker stepped in.  What ended 80s inflation? Volcker raised the Federal funds rate from averaged 11.2% to 20% in 2 years.  81-82 recession was the worst economic downturn in the United States since the Great Depression.  Fed just raised another 0.75 today, 2 months in a row.  Powell is raising rate aggressively to fight Inflation.  Keep in mind New hires are mostly Min. wage workers.  Recession is confirmed once 2Qtr GDP comes in negative tomorrow 7/28….

Unemployment is only 3.6% buddy
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Irvinehomeseeker on July 28, 2022, 04:08:01 PM
No Price declines in the newer neighborhoods of irvine. Saw an EW SFR come back to market but it was relisted at 50K higher than when it went initially went into escrow. I can see it's taking longer to sell, but no price reductions so far in EW.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Davidlee199 on July 29, 2022, 08:12:55 AM
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy is in a state of transition, not recession, despite two consecutive quarters of negative growth. 
The best way to avoid a recession is to simply change the definition of a recession.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: TestingIrvine on July 29, 2022, 08:51:10 AM
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy is in a state of transition, not recession, despite two consecutive quarters of negative growth. 
The best way to avoid a recession is to simply change the definition of a recession.

Unemployment being low will not trigger official recession.

Punchline: Irvine homes prices are not going down a lot.
2 quarters decline isn’t the definition of a recession.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/how-do-economists-determine-whether-the-economy-is-in-a-recession/
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: irvine buyer on July 29, 2022, 09:55:44 AM
Where's the misinformation police when you need them...oh wait, they're mostly partisan shills.  It amazes me how several key administration staffers have flip-flopped on the definition of a recession versus what they stated on record in the past.  Then there was this meeting with CEO's of major companies where Biden told them all that our country was not in a recession; and then proceeded to ask them if they thought the country was in recession.  Of course they said no.  Who wants to be the one to contradict the President and face harrassment by the media.  This is classic echo chamber behavior and I wouldn't be surprised if Biden says at some point that we are not in a recession because a room full of CEO's told him so.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on July 29, 2022, 10:24:15 AM
How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

So if I say this, certain people think I'm biased... but this is what I've been saying for years.

Those over 50% drops in Irvine that were predicted never happened. Even 40% is more an exception than the the rule.

This is you rewriting history.  What you said for years was that Irvine declined by 15%.  Period.  End of story.

Others were treating you like some kind of expert and quoting the 15% number, saying it showed how strong Irvine was compared to other cities.

The actual data did not agree with your personal observations though.  PPSF in Irvine dropped 28% peak-to-trough.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 29, 2022, 11:22:46 AM
How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

So if I say this, certain people think I'm biased... but this is what I've been saying for years.

Those over 50% drops in Irvine that were predicted never happened. Even 40% is more an exception than the the rule.

This is you rewriting history.  What you said for years was that Irvine declined by 15%.  Period.  End of story.

Others were treating you like some kind of expert and quoting the 15% number, saying it showed how strong Irvine was compared to other cities.

The actual data did not agree with your personal observations though.  PPSF in Irvine dropped 28% peak-to-trough.

Find the post Liar.

USC said SFRs 15-20%... I also said in homes that "I was looking at". Go find the post and then you can apologize for lying once again.

And 28% is a far cry from 40-50%+ that other people were predicting/claiming.

Period. Exclamation point.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on July 29, 2022, 03:30:12 PM
How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

So if I say this, certain people think I'm biased... but this is what I've been saying for years.

Those over 50% drops in Irvine that were predicted never happened. Even 40% is more an exception than the the rule.

This is you rewriting history.  What you said for years was that Irvine declined by 15%.  Period.  End of story.

Others were treating you like some kind of expert and quoting the 15% number, saying it showed how strong Irvine was compared to other cities.

The actual data did not agree with your personal observations though.  PPSF in Irvine dropped 28% peak-to-trough.

Find the post Liar.

USC said SFRs 15-20%... I also said in homes that "I was looking at". Go find the post and then you can apologize for lying once again.

And 28% is a far cry from 40-50%+ that other people were predicting/claiming.

Period. Exclamation point.

Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 29, 2022, 03:54:14 PM
Still haven't shown me this post where I made this 15% claim for all housing in Irvine. So you're still lying.

It's okay, you are wrong about this, you were wrong in 2018-2022 so you are spamming all the threads on TI so that you can finally say you were right.

Good job.

And no more responses until you find that post. I know where it is but I don't want to put more egg on your face.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Ready2Downsize on July 29, 2022, 09:43:14 PM
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.


It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...

I make this point all the time - Irvine is a smokin deal if remote works for you. The higher you go the harder that is to pull off, and all the biggies want people back in the office. Saratoga is full of (mostly) Asian/South Asian CEOs and some very nice wineries, and over the hill is Santa Cruz. Cupertino is the original aspirational Asian/South Asian suburb. I did some alumni recruiting for the Viterbi School of Engineering and they held a separate session just for the Cupertino high schools. I would wager that the Bay area’s top high schools in aggregate get more UC/USC admit slots than SoCals best. Maybe Stanford/Ivies too.

I’m down here right now and it is such a refreshing change, even watching the local news. It feels so much more relaxed and less serious.

You probably already know this, but San Francisco prices are already down from 2021:

Home Prices Are Starting to Buckle in Tech-Fueled San Francisco

The median house price in the city dropped 3% from a year earlier to $1.89 million in June, according to a report Thursday by brokerage Compass Inc., after cresting above a record $2 million in the previous three months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/san-francisco-home-prices-start-to-fall-as-headwinds-mount?srnd=premium

The Bay Area Housing Market Is Cooling More Rapidly Than Anywhere Else in the Country

Five of the 10 U.S. housing markets that have cooled fastest this year are in northern California–San Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, Sacramento and Stockton

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-markets-cooling-fastest-bay-area-2022/

SF is cratering - rents down there 26% as well. Silicon Valley housing market has stalled to some extent though the $4M+ market which is usually mostly cash transactions is still robust. I am firmly convinced that rates are headed to 10% in order to puncture housing specualtion, and I look forward to buying my south OC retirement pad in a few years at 10%+ rates and a steep discount to current pricing.

You can't have mortgage rates (which are longer term) be 10% if we are in a recession and the yield curve is inverted.  Can the Fed bump the Fed Funds rates to 5%, 6%, or 8%?  Maybe but that's what short term rates are.  To get mortgage interest rates to 10% you'll need inflation to increase materially from today and if we are in recession or going into one that won't happen. Mortgage rates have already begun to roll over a bit as is. Hard to have high mortgage rates when there is demand destruction due to people losing their jobs.
Your conventional thinking logic is flawed as you're not accounting for the impact of MBS QT, which hasn't even started yet (what will the securitization market look like), nor are you considering mortage rates traded at a discount to inflation only 3 times in the last 50 years as so astutely analyzed in Lansners's recent article:
[url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/][url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/]https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rate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(http://[url=https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/17/bubble-watch-could-mortgage-rates-hit-10/)[/url]

Our parents faced double digit mort rates in a recession - so will we

I don't agree with you.  The longer term rates are the ones that anticipate inflation and now we have an inverted yield curve which basically signals that a recession is coming with longer term bond rates down over 1/2% from the peak.  The Fed will have to pivot again once they see that inflation reverses.  Not only has oil started to roll over but so have a lot of other commodities, as have car prices and home prices.  Where's the inflation going to come from if all these commodities are rolling over?  Oh and if we get more layoffs, you'll get declining earnings growth by workers.  I have this funny feeling that the Fed will be back cutting rates sometime in 2023.
1. Rents.
2. Ongoing War. Gas is lower but still up significantly
3. China COVID. Lockdowns there can impact supply chain.

1. Rents won't go up if we are in recession, rents drop slightly or worst case stay flattish
2. The ongoing war is more of a problem for Europe and as we go into recession the demand for oil/gas drops
3. This is true but the line of container ships waiting outside of the LA/LB port is down over 80% from this time last year so that tells me demand is down because it's not like the port got more efficient
Recession definition is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. We are probably in one right now and I wouldn't be shocked.

With that said, we have a tight labor market. Unemployment rate is 3.6% I believe? So unless there is a mass layoff that occurs, we will probably run into stagflation and that's where inflation will not "cool" off. Rents will continue to stay high or elevated. Also, we are in a world of globalization. If one part of the world falls, we are not immune to it. Just like how gas prices are going up here and we are complaining about $6 per gallon when Europe is probably $10+ per gallon. If gas prices remain elevated, it means inflation will not cool as everything requires gas to deliver goods to the stores. Price pressures will remain. Consumers are still spending but not at the rate as it use to. Probably has something to do with low unemployment rate. What are you going to do if groceries are up 10-15%? Not eat? Costco can't even tell me when chicken thighs will be on a scheduled basis. They're saying there will continue to be a shortage for the next 6 months. And let's not even get started about China zero covid policy and how much of an impact that can have to the entire world. Ask Elon Musk and he can tell you how that has impacted his business.

I can definitely be wrong about this, but I really don't see any event where inflation will slow down near term unless massive layoffs happen. Especially with China's covid policy and the war going on.  Though once we start seeing layoffs happen and unemployment ticking up I think things will go down and the Fed will then act accordingly to lower rates. But that isn't showing in the data yet.

Just got back from Cali. Paid $4.99 for gas at FV costco. Costco is no longer the lowest station in a few areas and Berri brothers beats them in FV now. Gas got me to the interior of AZ where I paid $3.95 tonight at Costco. (Sam's club competition gets it this low (probably same as FV). So.......... stations CAN lower prices.

When the price of oil drops, gas follows and so does things made with oil. Cali has eliminated diesel gas tax which will help every trucker forced to fill up here after loading their stuff from Cali docks.

I don't believe chicken isn't going to come down. Eggs were under a buck a dozen last week here. Chicken will follow.... it always does.

Last week pork chops were under a buck a pound here. Week or two before london broil was under $2 per pound. Beef is being slaughtered due to the drought not providing enough grain. Of course this will rebound later from smaller herds but for now beef is probably going to be on sale due to higher supply.

There were four legacy homes here for sale sitting doing nothing. Within a day or two of each other three suddenly are pending. Builder here just sold both models, one home where u can pick everything on the lot with a large lot premium, two spec homes within the last couple days. Builder offered a refrigerator and washer/dryer but didn't budge on price. I got a discount for paying cash and redfin rebate (which they are not paying any more) and paid $165K less than what they are getting now for the same options/plan (early dec pricing).

Looking like the drop in rates has moved some buyers back into the market to me. If rates continue to fall, I expect more buyers will show up and sop up the inventory.

Powell can raise all he wants but for now it's not looking like recession to me.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: irvine buyer on July 30, 2022, 09:33:40 AM
While we lament about stock market losses and opine about how much Irvine home prices will drop; most Talkirvine forum members are not the people severely affected by this stagflation environment we are in.  To the bottom half this is a recession regardless of the narrative.  Look at food bank data and you'll see not only record demand but record number of new patrons (who by the way are employed).  Look at data regarding delinquent utility bills, including cellular.  Look at commentary from retailers such as Walmart about how their customer base spending has changed...lower checkout averages with less discretionary and more private label.  Look at credit card balance data.  I could go on and on.

The low unemployment numbers are misleading.  Not only is it a lagging indicator, but we have an employment economy where there is a shortage of certain workers but yet a glut of other workers who cannot find employment or need to get re-certified to regain employment.  Many in this latter group are no longer counted as seeking employment.

In the 1970's, inflation rose in the early '70's only to come back down for a couple years and then rise again into the infamous '79 to '81 period a lot of people remember.  I have no clue if this will happen again but just because prices are coming down does not mean we are in the clear.  A main cause of our current inflation (too much government spending) has not been curtailed and I believe that if our economy gets worse there will be even more government spending.  Supply chain disruptions will get worked out but the result may be a partial de-globilization of manufacturing which will have upward pressure on prices.  I predict oil prices (a big component affecting our inflation levels) will rise again as much of the western world continues its quest to eliminate fossil fuels.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: The California Court Company on July 30, 2022, 11:38:48 AM
well said. please tip extra if you can and donate extra food to local food bank
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: OCtoSV on August 01, 2022, 09:18:33 AM
OMFG - 361 SFRs/condos/townhomes for sale in Irvine under $2M. Tick tick boom!
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 01, 2022, 09:31:31 AM
OMFG - 361 SFRs/condos/townhomes for sale in Irvine under $2M. Tick tick boom!

Just to give some perspective, we had 1,059 active listings at the end of July 2019 and today we have 482 active listings at the end of July 2022.  Historically inventory levels tend to peak out in July/August and start falling once we get past Labor Day.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 01, 2022, 10:27:08 AM
Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Still haven't found the post to prove your lie?

Once again, I said that in the SFRs that *I was looking at* (3CWG homes), most were 15% with some as high as 20% but those were more undesirable. There is a whole thread that details this. I NEVER said that ALL of Irvine only dropped 15%.

And... my 20% is closer to 28% than **YOUR** 40%.

And to reiterate this is also what USC observed:

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

It is Liar Loan making false claims... as usual.

One other fallacy here which was also detailed in that thread... an XX% drop does NOT translate to an XX% discount for home buyers. Way too many variables with the major one being that other thing we discuss called timing.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on August 01, 2022, 11:00:23 AM
Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Still haven't found the post to prove your lie?

Once again, I said that in the SFRs that *I was looking at* (3CWG homes), most were 15% with some as high as 20% but those were more undesirable. There is a whole thread that details this. I NEVER said that ALL of Irvine only dropped 15%.

And... my 20% is closer to 28% than **YOUR** 40%.

And to reiterate this is also what USC observed:

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

It is Liar Loan making false claims... as usual.

One other fallacy here which was also detailed in that thread... an XX% drop does NOT translate to an XX% discount for home buyers. Way too many variables with the major one being that other thing we discuss called timing.

You were saying 15% so often that it got to the point that others, including one of the high profile realtors here on TI, were quoting you.  You never made any attempt to correct them by saying it was only 3CWG's that you personally viewed that you were talking about.

It wasn't until I questioned your number, then busted the myth with real closed sales data, that you were forced to concede that prices fell by more than 15%.  After I busted the 15% myth, a whole host of other posters chimed in to say that in their anecdotal experience, 4bd homes in Irvine did indeed fall by around 30%.

Not a single poster took your side.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: OCtoSV on August 01, 2022, 11:50:40 AM
OMFG - 361 SFRs/condos/townhomes for sale in Irvine under $2M. Tick tick boom!

Just to give some perspective, we had 1,059 active listings at the end of July 2019 and today we have 482 active listings at the end of July 2022.  Historically inventory levels tend to peak out in July/August and start falling once we get past Labor Day.

how much has the median risen since July 2019? I'm guessing a lot.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: The California Court Company on August 01, 2022, 12:13:53 PM
not really following this back and forth, all I get is better be patient and buy a unicorn (like 3CWG) which will hold the value better in a downturn.   >:D

Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Still haven't found the post to prove your lie?

Once again, I said that in the SFRs that *I was looking at* (3CWG homes), most were 15% with some as high as 20% but those were more undesirable. There is a whole thread that details this. I NEVER said that ALL of Irvine only dropped 15%.

And... my 20% is closer to 28% than **YOUR** 40%.

And to reiterate this is also what USC observed:

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

It is Liar Loan making false claims... as usual.

One other fallacy here which was also detailed in that thread... an XX% drop does NOT translate to an XX% discount for home buyers. Way too many variables with the major one being that other thing we discuss called timing.

You were saying 15% so often that it got to the point that others, including one of the high profile realtors here on TI, were quoting you.  You never made any attempt to correct them by saying it was only 3CWG's that you personally viewed that you were talking about.

It wasn't until I questioned your number, then busted the myth with real closed sales data, that you were forced to concede that prices fell by more than 15%.  After I busted the 15% myth, a whole host of other posters chimed in to say that in their anecdotal experience, 4bd homes in Irvine did indeed fall by around 30%.

Not a single poster took your side.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 01, 2022, 12:39:30 PM
Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Still haven't found the post to prove your lie?

Once again, I said that in the SFRs that *I was looking at* (3CWG homes), most were 15% with some as high as 20% but those were more undesirable. There is a whole thread that details this. I NEVER said that ALL of Irvine only dropped 15%.

And... my 20% is closer to 28% than **YOUR** 40%.

And to reiterate this is also what USC observed:

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

It is Liar Loan making false claims... as usual.

One other fallacy here which was also detailed in that thread... an XX% drop does NOT translate to an XX% discount for home buyers. Way too many variables with the major one being that other thing we discuss called timing.

You were saying 15% so often that it got to the point that others, including one of the high profile realtors here on TI, were quoting you.  You never made any attempt to correct them by saying it was only 3CWG's that you personally viewed that you were talking about.

It wasn't until I questioned your number, then busted the myth with real closed sales data, that you were forced to concede that prices fell by more than 15%.  After I busted the 15% myth, a whole host of other posters chimed in to say that in their anecdotal experience, 4bd homes in Irvine did indeed fall by around 30%.

I've always had that caveat about the homes I was looking at because I was actively shopping from 2008 on... find the post where I applied to ALL. You can't.

This is just more lies from you because you are absolutely wrong here.

And you didn't bust anything... it was meccos12 who asked for clarity on what homes I was shopping that I only saw a 15-20% drop so I pointed him to that thread.

Quote
Not a single poster took your side.

Wrong again. There were other posters who also did not observe a 40%+ drop in homes they were looking at, I even have a thread asking if anyone realized such a large discount from the 06-10 drop. And are you ignoring USC's post above that I've quoted twice now?

Sorry Liar... just like in 2018-19... you can't get anything right.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 01, 2022, 12:43:03 PM
OMFG - 361 SFRs/condos/townhomes for sale in Irvine under $2M. Tick tick boom!

Just to give some perspective, we had 1,059 active listings at the end of July 2019 and today we have 482 active listings at the end of July 2022.  Historically inventory levels tend to peak out in July/August and start falling once we get past Labor Day.

how much has the median risen since July 2019? I'm guessing a lot.

The median price per SF at the end of July 2019 was $476 and at the end of July 2022 it was $691 or up 45%.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 01, 2022, 12:46:34 PM
OMFG - 361 SFRs/condos/townhomes for sale in Irvine under $2M. Tick tick boom!

Just to give some perspective, we had 1,059 active listings at the end of July 2019 and today we have 482 active listings at the end of July 2022.  Historically inventory levels tend to peak out in July/August and start falling once we get past Labor Day.

how much has the median risen since July 2019? I'm guessing a lot.

The median price per SF at the end of July 2019 was $476 and at the end of July 2022 it was $691 or up 45%.

Didn't Liar Loan predict that? Oh wait... the opposite. I think his credibility dropped 45%. :)
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Ready2Downsize on August 01, 2022, 01:45:58 PM
10 year bond still falling......... towards 2.5 and then towards 2. If you want a house now is the time to try to strong arm a seller into lowering the price if you can. Negotiate the longest time frame u can get for inspections. If the yield keeps falling bet you'll end up with a sweet deal.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on August 01, 2022, 02:04:31 PM
I've always had that caveat about the homes I was looking at because I was actively shopping from 2008 on... find the post where I applied to ALL. You can't.

This is just more lies from you because you are absolutely wrong here.

And you didn't bust anything... it was meccos12 who asked for clarity on what homes I was shopping that I only saw a 15-20% drop so I pointed him to that thread.

Quote
Not a single poster took your side.

Wrong again. There were other posters who also did not observe a 40%+ drop in homes they were looking at, I even have a thread asking if anyone realized such a large discount from the 06-10 drop. And are you ignoring USC's post above that I've quoted twice now?

Sorry Liar... just like in 2018-19... you can't get anything right.

meccos12 had nothing to do with the discussion where we collectively debunked the 15% myth.  This means you are remembering the wrong thread.  LOL...
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 01, 2022, 02:40:29 PM
I've always had that caveat about the homes I was looking at because I was actively shopping from 2008 on... find the post where I applied to ALL. You can't.

This is just more lies from you because you are absolutely wrong here.

And you didn't bust anything... it was meccos12 who asked for clarity on what homes I was shopping that I only saw a 15-20% drop so I pointed him to that thread.

Quote
Not a single poster took your side.

Wrong again. There were other posters who also did not observe a 40%+ drop in homes they were looking at, I even have a thread asking if anyone realized such a large discount from the 06-10 drop. And are you ignoring USC's post above that I've quoted twice now?

Sorry Liar... just like in 2018-19... you can't get anything right.

meccos12 had nothing to do with the discussion where we collectively debunked the 15% myth.  This means you are remembering the wrong thread.  LOL...

You can’t even find a single post to support your lies.

Want to bet that most SFR buyers paid closer to a 15% discount than a 40% one? You keep glomming on to 28% but I can claim you were in the 40%+ camp with Larry.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on August 01, 2022, 03:39:17 PM
I've always had that caveat about the homes I was looking at because I was actively shopping from 2008 on... find the post where I applied to ALL. You can't.

This is just more lies from you because you are absolutely wrong here.

And you didn't bust anything... it was meccos12 who asked for clarity on what homes I was shopping that I only saw a 15-20% drop so I pointed him to that thread.

Quote
Not a single poster took your side.

Wrong again. There were other posters who also did not observe a 40%+ drop in homes they were looking at, I even have a thread asking if anyone realized such a large discount from the 06-10 drop. And are you ignoring USC's post above that I've quoted twice now?

Sorry Liar... just like in 2018-19... you can't get anything right.

meccos12 had nothing to do with the discussion where we collectively debunked the 15% myth.  This means you are remembering the wrong thread.  LOL...

You can’t even find a single post to support your lies.

Want to bet that most SFR buyers paid closer to a 15% discount than a 40% one? You keep glomming on to 28% but I can claim you were in the 40%+ camp with Larry.

Your position has been debunked by the data, as well as the observations of a multiple TI posters.  Post your data for 3CWG's if you have it.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 01, 2022, 03:51:15 PM
I've always had that caveat about the homes I was looking at because I was actively shopping from 2008 on... find the post where I applied to ALL. You can't.

This is just more lies from you because you are absolutely wrong here.

And you didn't bust anything... it was meccos12 who asked for clarity on what homes I was shopping that I only saw a 15-20% drop so I pointed him to that thread.

Quote
Not a single poster took your side.

Wrong again. There were other posters who also did not observe a 40%+ drop in homes they were looking at, I even have a thread asking if anyone realized such a large discount from the 06-10 drop. And are you ignoring USC's post above that I've quoted twice now?

Sorry Liar... just like in 2018-19... you can't get anything right.

meccos12 had nothing to do with the discussion where we collectively debunked the 15% myth.  This means you are remembering the wrong thread.  LOL...

You can’t even find a single post to support your lies.

Want to bet that most SFR buyers paid closer to a 15% discount than a 40% one? You keep glomming on to 28% but I can claim you were in the 40%+ camp with Larry.

Your position has been debunked by the data, as well as the observations of a multiple TI posters.  Post your data for 3CWG's if you have it.

What position? You claim to remember the discussion, why can't you quote the post where I stated that it was 15% across all Irvine products? There is a whole thread I started about 3-car garage homes and this was back then during real time so it's been posted here and referred back to numerous times.

Your position on what I claimed has been debunked by facts... just like your position in 2018-2019 and for the past 3 to 4 years where you kept predicting pain for Irvine.

Same with your position about buying in the last 4 years which I said is fine as long as you can afford it and stay put for a while. You argued against me... and then you went and bought your own home... LOL.

Liars do what liars do.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: TestingIrvine on August 01, 2022, 10:30:48 PM
How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

So if I say this, certain people think I'm biased... but this is what I've been saying for years.

Those over 50% drops in Irvine that were predicted never happened. Even 40% is more an exception than the the rule.

This is you rewriting history.  What you said for years was that Irvine declined by 15%.  Period.  End of story.

Others were treating you like some kind of expert and quoting the 15% number, saying it showed how strong Irvine was compared to other cities.

The actual data did not agree with your personal observations though.  PPSF in Irvine dropped 28% peak-to-trough.

Find the post Liar.

USC said SFRs 15-20%... I also said in homes that "I was looking at". Go find the post and then you can apologize for lying once again.

And 28% is a far cry from 40-50%+ that other people were predicting/claiming.

Period. Exclamation point.

Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Liarloan is an old man yelling at a cloud.  Nobody know what he’s yelling at

https://vannattapr.com/2020/12/03/dont-yell-at-clouds/

Whatever he says, we all made out like bandits the last 5 years via Irvine real estate

Maybe he’s mad he missed the Irvine real estate gravy train
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on August 02, 2022, 02:59:25 PM
How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

So if I say this, certain people think I'm biased... but this is what I've been saying for years.

Those over 50% drops in Irvine that were predicted never happened. Even 40% is more an exception than the the rule.

This is you rewriting history.  What you said for years was that Irvine declined by 15%.  Period.  End of story.

Others were treating you like some kind of expert and quoting the 15% number, saying it showed how strong Irvine was compared to other cities.

The actual data did not agree with your personal observations though.  PPSF in Irvine dropped 28% peak-to-trough.

Find the post Liar.

USC said SFRs 15-20%... I also said in homes that "I was looking at". Go find the post and then you can apologize for lying once again.

And 28% is a far cry from 40-50%+ that other people were predicting/claiming.

Period. Exclamation point.

Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Liarloan is an old man yelling at a cloud.  Nobody know what he’s yelling at

https://vannattapr.com/2020/12/03/dont-yell-at-clouds/

Whatever he says, we all made out like bandits the last 5 years via Irvine real estate

Maybe he’s mad he missed the Irvine real estate gravy train

Haha... good for you.  But we were discussing the Great Recession declines that IHO says weren't that bad. 

What about you, do you think Irvine only declined 15% in those days or closer to 30%?
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: TestingIrvine on August 02, 2022, 04:13:57 PM
How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

So if I say this, certain people think I'm biased... but this is what I've been saying for years.

Those over 50% drops in Irvine that were predicted never happened. Even 40% is more an exception than the the rule.

This is you rewriting history.  What you said for years was that Irvine declined by 15%.  Period.  End of story.

Others were treating you like some kind of expert and quoting the 15% number, saying it showed how strong Irvine was compared to other cities.

The actual data did not agree with your personal observations though.  PPSF in Irvine dropped 28% peak-to-trough.

Find the post Liar.

USC said SFRs 15-20%... I also said in homes that "I was looking at". Go find the post and then you can apologize for lying once again.

And 28% is a far cry from 40-50%+ that other people were predicting/claiming.

Period. Exclamation point.

Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Liarloan is an old man yelling at a cloud.  Nobody know what he’s yelling at

https://vannattapr.com/2020/12/03/dont-yell-at-clouds/

Whatever he says, we all made out like bandits the last 5 years via Irvine real estate

Maybe he’s mad he missed the Irvine real estate gravy train

Haha... good for you.  But we were discussing the Great Recession declines that IHO says weren't that bad. 

What about you, do you think Irvine only declined 15% in those days or closer to 30%?

Honestly who cares about the past? The Great Recession was an entire generation past , 15 years ago.

Different times, different situation.

Might as well be a boomer and talk about saving & loan crisis and dotcom bubble.

Current situation is unprecedented.  Irvine 2007/2008 is a different Irvine of today.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Danimal on August 02, 2022, 06:47:18 PM
I dont see any price drop.  I just closed escrow on my old Irvine home today.  I got 7 offers (3 cash & 4 loans with 30%+ down) and sold more than asking price. This is when rate was higher last month. There are just too many people want a piece of Irvine.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Davidlee199 on August 02, 2022, 06:55:49 PM
Average New Home Price, biggest drop since 2008.
If you don’t see it NOW, you will see it in 6-12 months.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph?graph_id=909485
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: best_potsticker_in_town on August 02, 2022, 08:04:08 PM
I dont see any price drop.  I just closed escrow on my old Irvine home today.  I got 7 offers (3 cash & 4 loans with 30%+ down) and sold more than asking price. This is when rate was higher last month. There are just too many people want a piece of Irvine.

There are definitely still buyers and if a listing is in a good area, is in good condition, and priced right - it will move quickly. Sounds like you had 2 out of the 3, or maybe even the trifecta - so congrats to you. The market has definitely slowed. Sellers are still pretty stuck on their asking price and many can't be convinced to do a reduction.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: CalBears96 on August 02, 2022, 08:07:25 PM
I dont see any price drop.  I just closed escrow on my old Irvine home today.  I got 7 offers (3 cash & 4 loans with 30%+ down) and sold more than asking price. This is when rate was higher last month. There are just too many people want a piece of Irvine.

Congrats!
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: TestingIrvine on August 02, 2022, 08:58:15 PM
I dont see any price drop.  I just closed escrow on my old Irvine home today.  I got 7 offers (3 cash & 4 loans with 30%+ down) and sold more than asking price. This is when rate was higher last month. There are just too many people want a piece of Irvine.


Congrats. Experiencing  the gains first hand is the best experience.  Nobody I know who bought before 3/2022 is regretting as of now in Irvine.

Irvine is a different beast because of The Irvine Company.  Thank you TIC LOLLLL.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Danimal on August 02, 2022, 09:11:55 PM
I dont see any price drop.  I just closed escrow on my old Irvine home today.  I got 7 offers (3 cash & 4 loans with 30%+ down) and sold more than asking price. This is when rate was higher last month. There are just too many people want a piece of Irvine.


Congrats. Experiencing  the gains first hand is the best experience.  Nobody I know who bought before 3/2022 is regretting as of now in Irvine.

Irvine is a different beast because of The Irvine Company.  Thank you TIC LOLLLL.

Yes, location location location. I bought that home 14 years ago after the 2008 financial crisis. It went down another 5% but i didnt care. I was in it for a long haul.  It tripled the price since then. Only bad thing is that Uncle Sam will want a piece of that pie after $500k tax free.

Lesson learned is that if you can afford to buy a home and plan to live in it for a long time, short term gain/loss doesnt matter.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: sleepy5136 on August 02, 2022, 09:14:23 PM
I dont see any price drop.  I just closed escrow on my old Irvine home today.  I got 7 offers (3 cash & 4 loans with 30%+ down) and sold more than asking price. This is when rate was higher last month. There are just too many people want a piece of Irvine.


Congrats. Experiencing  the gains first hand is the best experience.  Nobody I know who bought before 3/2022 is regretting as of now in Irvine.

Irvine is a different beast because of The Irvine Company.  Thank you TIC LOLLLL.
nope, it's because of FCB and their standards. Copy and paste floor plans across the city, high density but don't care bc it's denser where they are from, don't care about small lots because generally asians hate the sun, and looking for max indoor sqft. TIC client base is FCB, not Americans.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: CalBears96 on August 02, 2022, 09:14:28 PM
Lesson learned is that if you can afford to buy a home and plan to live in it for a long time, short term gain/loss doesnt matter.

You be spitting truth.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: best_potsticker_in_town on August 02, 2022, 09:42:23 PM
I dont see any price drop.  I just closed escrow on my old Irvine home today.  I got 7 offers (3 cash & 4 loans with 30%+ down) and sold more than asking price. This is when rate was higher last month. There are just too many people want a piece of Irvine.


Congrats. Experiencing  the gains first hand is the best experience.  Nobody I know who bought before 3/2022 is regretting as of now in Irvine.

Irvine is a different beast because of The Irvine Company.  Thank you TIC LOLLLL.

Yes, location location location. I bought that home 14 years ago after the 2008 financial crisis. It went down another 5% but i didnt care. I was in it for a long haul.  It tripled the price since then. Only bad thing is that Uncle Sam will want a piece of that pie after $500k tax free.

Lesson learned is that if you can afford to buy a home and plan to live in it for a long time, short term gain/loss doesnt matter.

This is the key. I've been trying to tell anyone searching for a home that if they find something that fits what they want and they plan to live in it for a while, now is actually a good time to buy. First, the market is stagnating - you have less competition. Second, inventory is still relatively tight and it's hard to find a home that checks all (or most) of your boxes. And third, even though interest rates are ticking up, there's a good chance they'll fall again over the next 12-18 months.

The problem is, everyone I talk to thinks they're an economic expert and believe they can time the market. Unless you're an all-cash buyer - good luck w/ timing the market.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: The California Court Company on August 02, 2022, 09:50:03 PM
well said. we think alike.

I dont see any price drop.  I just closed escrow on my old Irvine home today.  I got 7 offers (3 cash & 4 loans with 30%+ down) and sold more than asking price. This is when rate was higher last month. There are just too many people want a piece of Irvine.


Congrats. Experiencing  the gains first hand is the best experience.  Nobody I know who bought before 3/2022 is regretting as of now in Irvine.

Irvine is a different beast because of The Irvine Company.  Thank you TIC LOLLLL.
nope, it's because of FCB and their standards. Copy and paste floor plans across the city, high density but don't care bc it's denser where they are from, don't care about small lots because generally asians hate the sun, and looking for max indoor sqft. TIC client base is FCB, not Americans.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on August 03, 2022, 11:32:04 AM
Lesson learned is that if you can afford to buy a home and plan to live in it for a long time, short term gain/loss doesnt matter.

You be spitting truth.

It's the partial truth.  Danimal also benefitted immensely from good market timing by buying near the bottom and selling near the top.  If he had instead bought at the 2007 peak, it would have been many brutal years of "short term loss".  You know this because you've been through it yourself.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on August 03, 2022, 11:42:32 AM
Honestly who cares about the past? The Great Recession was an entire generation past , 15 years ago.

Different times, different situation.

Might as well be a boomer and talk about saving & loan crisis and dotcom bubble.

Current situation is unprecedented.  Irvine 2007/2008 is a different Irvine of today.

This thread is about Irvine housing predictions, and it's hard to make an accurate prediction without understanding the past.  History doesn't repeat but it tends to rhyme.

Understanding the S&L crisis and the dotcom bubble can give many important lessons for understanding the bubbles of today.  Human behavior and the madness of crowds follow the same patterns over and over.  The new generation doesn't remember the past, usually fails to study history, and repeats the same mistakes that their forbears made.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: ThirtySomethingWEquity on August 03, 2022, 02:52:20 PM

The problem is, everyone I talk to thinks they're an economic expert and believe they can time the market. Unless you're an all-cash buyer - good luck w/ timing the market.

I am an economic expert and I bought in early 2009 and late 2020 so....   ;D
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: TestingIrvine on August 03, 2022, 03:10:06 PM
Honestly who cares about the past? The Great Recession was an entire generation past , 15 years ago.

Different times, different situation.

Might as well be a boomer and talk about saving & loan crisis and dotcom bubble.

Current situation is unprecedented.  Irvine 2007/2008 is a different Irvine of today.

This thread is about Irvine housing predictions, and it's hard to make an accurate prediction without understanding the past.  History doesn't repeat but it tends to rhyme.

Understanding the S&L crisis and the dotcom bubble can give many important lessons for understanding the bubbles of today.  Human behavior and the madness of crowds follow the same patterns over and over.  The new generation doesn't remember the past, usually fails to study history, and repeats the same mistakes that their forbears made.

It was 15 years ago old man.  Stop talking about 2007 subprime days.   Different generation, different problems.

What happened 15 years ago doesn’t reflect today. You’re stuck on the past.

If people make good gains you simply call is “good timing”.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on August 03, 2022, 09:00:40 PM
Honestly who cares about the past? The Great Recession was an entire generation past , 15 years ago.

Different times, different situation.

Might as well be a boomer and talk about saving & loan crisis and dotcom bubble.

Current situation is unprecedented.  Irvine 2007/2008 is a different Irvine of today.

This thread is about Irvine housing predictions, and it's hard to make an accurate prediction without understanding the past.  History doesn't repeat but it tends to rhyme.

Understanding the S&L crisis and the dotcom bubble can give many important lessons for understanding the bubbles of today.  Human behavior and the madness of crowds follow the same patterns over and over.  The new generation doesn't remember the past, usually fails to study history, and repeats the same mistakes that their forbears made.

It was 15 years ago old man.  Stop talking about 2007 subprime days.   Different generation, different problems.

What happened 15 years ago doesn’t reflect today.   You’re stuck on the past.

If people make good gains you simply call is “good timing” LOLLLL.  You’re just an old, bitter Boomer stuck in the past.

Poor guy spent a lot of time editing his insults.  He came back over five hours later to remove the weakest ones. :D

Thanks to TestingIrvine, I'm living rent free now.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: TestingIrvine on August 03, 2022, 09:43:10 PM
Honestly who cares about the past? The Great Recession was an entire generation past , 15 years ago.

Different times, different situation.

Might as well be a boomer and talk about saving & loan crisis and dotcom bubble.

Current situation is unprecedented.  Irvine 2007/2008 is a different Irvine of today.

This thread is about Irvine housing predictions, and it's hard to make an accurate prediction without understanding the past.  History doesn't repeat but it tends to rhyme.

Understanding the S&L crisis and the dotcom bubble can give many important lessons for understanding the bubbles of today.  Human behavior and the madness of crowds follow the same patterns over and over.  The new generation doesn't remember the past, usually fails to study history, and repeats the same mistakes that their forbears made.

It was 15 years ago old man.  Stop talking about 2007 subprime days.   Different generation, different problems.

What happened 15 years ago doesn’t reflect today.   You’re stuck on the past.

If people make good gains you simply call is “good timing” LOLLLL.  You’re just an old, bitter Boomer stuck in the past.

Poor guy spent a lot of time editing his insults.  He came back over five hours later to remove the weakest ones. :D

Thanks to TestingIrvine, I'm living rent free now.

Im trying to be nicer on here.

I think Irvine lives rent free in your mind
- considering you don’t live in Irvine
- you are a prolific poster on Talk Irvine

Edit:
I will now go to TalkRanchoSantaMargarita.com and bash a random city I have no affiliation with LOLOOLLLLLLLL
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Davidlee199 on August 04, 2022, 04:54:13 PM
Irvine Real Estate prices won’t drop due to its location? Lol
The real estate market in the Bay Area is down 10-15% from the peak so far.  Considering Average household income is $300k-$400k in the Bay Area vs $200k here in OC…
China Economy is in big problem due to its real estate market is crashed.  Don’t expect more money coming China to keep the Irvine market stays strong. 
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: OCtoSV on August 05, 2022, 01:02:40 PM
Irvine Real Estate prices won’t drop due to its location? Lol
The real estate market in the Bay Area is down 10-15% from the peak so far.  Considering Average household income is $300k-$400k in the Bay Area vs $200k here in OC…
China Economy is in big problem due to its real estate market is crashed.  Don’t expect more money coming China to keep the Irvine market stays strong.

I've always suspected Irvine was an extension of the China housing bubble - now we'll see whether that was the case
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: TestingIrvine on August 05, 2022, 02:15:07 PM
https://www.ocregister.com/2022/08/05/what-recession-us-employers-add-528000-jobs-in-july/

There will be no crash this year, it’ll be a soft landing. Flat 2022.

10% lower prices versus peak is nothing when prices went parabolic 9/2021-3/2022
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: Liar Loan on August 05, 2022, 03:21:49 PM
https://www.ocregister.com/2022/08/05/what-recession-us-employers-add-528000-jobs-in-july/

There will be no crash this year, it’ll be a soft landing. Flat 2022.

10% lower prices versus peak is nothing when prices went parabolic 9/2021-3/2022

Parabolas are a key feature of financial bubbles.  It's very rare to see something stay "flat" after a parabolic rise.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: linus on August 05, 2022, 10:30:15 PM
https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/california/la-orange-county/promo/ochlen_oc_hotw_2

Lennar starts offering price reduction on some move-in ready in OC
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: OCtoSV on August 06, 2022, 05:00:54 PM
https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/california/la-orange-county/promo/ochlen_oc_hotw_2

Lennar starts offering price reduction on some move-in ready in OC

6 figure reductions on Irvine new construction. Dropping like a rock.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 06, 2022, 05:57:26 PM
https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/california/la-orange-county/promo/ochlen_oc_hotw_2

Lennar starts offering price reduction on some move-in ready in OC

6 figure reductions on Irvine new construction. Dropping like a rock.

Well, when their prices are stupid to begin with then of course you'll have 6 figure price reductions just like all the other resales that were priced based upon April/May closing prices.  If you price a home right and present it well it'll go into escrow within 30 days, simple as that.

I said this before, when the market was on fire all listing agents looked like rock stars.  But now that things have cooled off, we'll find out which agents are the good ones and the ones that aren't.
Title: Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
Post by: CalBears96 on August 06, 2022, 06:34:21 PM
https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/california/la-orange-county/promo/ochlen_oc_hotw_2

Lennar starts offering price reduction on some move-in ready in OC

6 figure reductions on Irvine new construction. Dropping like a rock.

Well, when their prices are stupid to begin with then of course you'll have 6 figure price reductions just like all the other resales that were priced based upon April/May closing prices.  If you price a home right and present it well it'll go into escrow within 30 days, simple as that.

I said this before, when the market was on fire all listing agents looked like rock stars.  But now that things have cooled off, we'll find out which agents are the good ones and the ones that aren't.

Exactly. Just because some fools list their houses ridiculously high and then have to make 6 figure price reduction doesn't mean dropping like a rock.

Prime example: IP was selling Bluffs 1 at $1.725M (bigger lot), but the neighbor diagonally across from me listed their Bluffs 1 (smallest lot and barely any upgrades) at $1.89M. Now they had to reduce to $1.799M. Does it mean dropping like a rock? Hell no. It only means they were greedy fools.
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