Talk Irvine

General => Economy & Finance => Topic started by: Cornflakes on November 15, 2021, 09:45:31 PM

Title: Short Rivian?
Post by: Cornflakes on November 15, 2021, 09:45:31 PM
As crazy as stock market is, how many other companies are worth 100B that has no revenue and is burning money?

Over time, Rivian may be successful in bringing great cars out, scal up production, and all good stuff. But that road is at least a few quarters out and the ride has to be bumpy till then.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: CalBears96 on November 15, 2021, 10:08:41 PM
Worth more than GM and Ford.

Even then, since the stock doesn't trade on value, it's dangerous to short it.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: Cornflakes on November 15, 2021, 10:31:55 PM
Let's say if your short sell investment horizon is 1 year. In 1 year, how high can Rivian go? 10x? That would be 1T valuation, same as Tesla today.

If that happens, you lose 9x the principal your invested. So, 5k short will lose 45k.

But, if that does happen, I can only imagine what my 401k and crypto holdings will do. If Rivian can hit 10x in a year, why bitcoin will not be 500k, why S&P won't 3x or 5x in a year? I should take 45k loss on Rivian with a smile.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: eyephone on November 15, 2021, 10:38:07 PM
Rivian to the moon! (For now)  8)
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 15, 2021, 10:48:47 PM
Buy puts instead of shorting it, less dangerous.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: eyephone on November 15, 2021, 11:10:43 PM
Rivian to the moon! (For now)  8)

Built in camp kitchen option for Rivian electric pickup.
Amazon plans to deliver 100,000 Rivian EV van.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: CalBears96 on November 15, 2021, 11:52:56 PM
Buy puts instead of shorting it, less dangerous.

Yeah, might as well buy $5k worth of puts. Then only lose $5k.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: Cornflakes on November 16, 2021, 08:08:46 AM
Bought a March 70 Put. Will buy some more.  Happy to lose some $ if I am wrong and Rivian shoots up. I think that overall market will go up in that case and will make up somewhere else.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: Cares on November 16, 2021, 09:57:55 AM
I think Rivian is unproven at this time on how they will scale and reach profitability. Tesla took quite a long time to get to that point.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: Cornflakes on November 16, 2021, 11:22:58 AM
The guy that runs three successful companies and has proven track record of solving hardest problem says that scaling up production was the hardest problem and kicked his ass. We'll see if Rivian has magic trick up their sleeve and makes Musk look like fool spending so much time scaling up.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: CalBears96 on November 16, 2021, 12:03:55 PM
I think the chip shortage is going to affect scaling up production. I also bought a March 70 put just for the heck of it.  ;D
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: eyephone on November 16, 2021, 12:28:24 PM
The guy that runs three successful companies and has proven track record of solving hardest problem says that scaling up production was the hardest problem and kicked his ass. We'll see if Rivian has magic trick up their sleeve and makes Musk look like fool spending so much time scaling up.

As of today Amazon owns a 20 percent stake in Rivian.
To the moon!
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: Cornflakes on November 16, 2021, 02:41:40 PM
I think the chip shortage is going to affect scaling up production. I also bought a March 70 put just for the heck of it.  ;D

Welcome to the club.

When Rivian doubles from here, will buy more puts.

Anyone who has been on the other side of the table with Amazon as a vendor/supplier (and I have been) will not see Amazon order as a big plus.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 16, 2021, 10:54:31 PM
Buy puts that expire after the IPO lockbox period.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: eyephone on November 16, 2021, 11:14:04 PM
The guy that runs three successful companies and has proven track record of solving hardest problem says that scaling up production was the hardest problem and kicked his ass. We'll see if Rivian has magic trick up their sleeve and makes Musk look like fool spending so much time scaling up.

As of today Amazon owns a 20 percent stake in Rivian.
To the moon!

I might just buy more!
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: CalBears96 on November 17, 2021, 12:04:54 AM
Buy puts that expire after the IPO lockbox period.

That would be 5/9/2022. That's a very good idea, actually. But I also think there will be profit taking before then. It was trading around $100 on the first day.

I think I'll buy another put expiring in May.  ;D
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: eyephone on November 17, 2021, 07:00:53 AM
The guy that runs three successful companies and has proven track record of solving hardest problem says that scaling up production was the hardest problem and kicked his ass. We'll see if Rivian has magic trick up their sleeve and makes Musk look like fool spending so much time scaling up.

As of today Amazon owns a 20 percent stake in Rivian.
To the moon!

I might just buy more!

Good thing I didnt buy more. I initially got in at $78. prayge :D
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: Cornflakes on November 17, 2021, 09:10:34 AM
If you round up Rivian’s virtually zero revenue to $1B, the stock is trading 150x of it.

Tesla as market leader in EV is trading at 25x revenue. 

Either bring me tesla at 150x price point or bring me Rivian at 25x or below. Take a few months to come down to equilibrium. I am happy with either outcome.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: Cares on November 17, 2021, 12:33:06 PM
I'll admit I don't know too much about options. I get the general understanding of it but then I started digging deeper about IV crush and all this much more complicated analysis that is over my head and I'm too busy to figure out at this time.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: morekaos on November 17, 2021, 12:40:19 PM
I'll admit I don't know too much about options. I get the general understanding of it but then I started digging deeper about IV crush and all this much more complicated analysis that is over my head and I'm too busy to figure out at this time.

Be very careful...think about it like sitting down at a full poker table at Caesar's on a Saturday night...if you can't spot the sucker immediately...you are it. ;D ;D >:D
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: morekaos on November 17, 2021, 01:39:24 PM
Take a good look at those March 70 puts...closed yesterday in the $5 range and as the stock dropped $20 plus points today, it went....down.  Closed $3.70x3.80 down $2.19.  Premium lost while the stock went in its direction...watch out.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: CalBears96 on November 17, 2021, 02:00:26 PM
Take a good look at those March 70 puts...closed yesterday in the $5 range and as the stock dropped $20 plus points today, it went....down.  Closed $3.70x3.80 down $2.19.  Premium lost while the stock went in its direction...watch out.

I think it's due to the stock just went IPO and there was no good gauge on what the actual premium should be. And given that the stock was trading at $100 on IPO day, the assumption is that it would not drop below $100. If you look at all the sub $100 puts, they all dropped today.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: eyephone on November 17, 2021, 02:23:53 PM
From looking at the articles. It looks like a mini RV with the cooking and camping features.

https://www.motorbiscuit.com/rivian-r1t-coolest-electric-pickup-truck/

Its the hype! Some people say it is the coolest electric pickup truck. lol
The sliding kitchenette and rooftop tent. (optional)

Dont ask me how they are going to charge the vehicle at the campsite to drive back. Haha
It says 300 miles range for the low end and 400 miles for the high end battery. (Should be enough idk)
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 17, 2021, 05:26:08 PM
The Rivian product is decent but overpriced compared to the Ford Lightning and Cybertruck. Their advantage is they are out now as compared to a 1-2 year wait for the others... that alone can drive stock value.

Everything is going electric (despite morekaos' reluctance)... and infrastructure and battery technology will make range anxiety no big deal.

And Rivian has offices in Irvine... another plus. :)
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: eyephone on November 17, 2021, 05:36:05 PM
The Rivian product is decent but overpriced compared to the Ford Lightning and Cybertruck. Their advantage is they are out now as compared to a 1-2 year wait for the others... that alone can drive stock value.

Everything is going electric (despite morekaos' reluctance)... and infrastructure and battery technology will make range anxiety no big deal.

And Rivian has offices in Irvine... another plus. :)

Support local business! hehe
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: morekaos on November 17, 2021, 05:49:50 PM
It’ll probably be just be another government subsidized, rich guys toy…nothing new here.. ;D ;D >:D

Electric Car Maker Fisker Files for Bankruptcy

The bankruptcy could become a political hot potato because the U.S. government had focused on Fisker to encourage the development of green energy,providing it with loans.

The Journal cited the Department of Energy as saying it had recovered $53 million of the $192 million Fisker owed to the government, leaving $139 million unpaid.

https://www.industryweek.com/finance/article/21961699/electric-car-maker-fisker-files-for-bankruptcy (https://www.industryweek.com/finance/article/21961699/electric-car-maker-fisker-files-for-bankruptcy)
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: zovall on November 17, 2021, 05:52:07 PM
https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/fisker-files-for-chapter-11-bankruptcy.html
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: The California Court Company on November 17, 2021, 06:20:20 PM
Just need to haul some diesel generator and diesel fuel to charge the battery in the camp site.

From looking at the articles. It looks like a mini RV with the cooking and camping features.

https://www.motorbiscuit.com/rivian-r1t-coolest-electric-pickup-truck/

Its the hype! Some people say it is the coolest electric pickup truck. lol
The sliding kitchenette and rooftop tent. (optional)

Dont ask me how they are going to charge the vehicle at the campsite to drive back. Haha
It says 300 miles range for the low end and 400 miles for the high end battery. (Should be enough idk)
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: eyephone on November 17, 2021, 06:43:36 PM
Just need to haul some diesel generator and diesel fuel to charge the battery in the camp site.

From looking at the articles. It looks like a mini RV with the cooking and camping features.

https://www.motorbiscuit.com/rivian-r1t-coolest-electric-pickup-truck/

Its the hype! Some people say it is the coolest electric pickup truck. lol
The sliding kitchenette and rooftop tent. (optional)

Dont ask me how they are going to charge the vehicle at the campsite to drive back. Haha
It says 300 miles range for the low end and 400 miles for the high end battery. (Should be enough idk)

Thanks for the post. That is an option.
I noticed that some camp sites have electric hookup. (trickle charge?)
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: morekaos on November 18, 2021, 08:36:05 AM
...so the stock drops another 20 points and the March 70 put goes up $2, back to $5.  The stock has dropped $50 in two days and your option is essentially flat...careful, the guys who figure out that delta are very smart. >:D
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on November 18, 2021, 09:33:52 AM
Rivn isn't something I would trade myself but 70 is way out of the money. if it went from 3 to 5, that is a 67% gain. I'd be happy if I got that in a day or two.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: Cares on November 18, 2021, 09:41:05 AM
So for calls and puts, are most money made when they are exercised or is it to sell the contract?
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 18, 2021, 10:29:03 AM
Just need to haul some diesel generator and diesel fuel to charge the battery in the camp site.

From looking at the articles. It looks like a mini RV with the cooking and camping features.

https://www.motorbiscuit.com/rivian-r1t-coolest-electric-pickup-truck/

Its the hype! Some people say it is the coolest electric pickup truck. lol
The sliding kitchenette and rooftop tent. (optional)

Dont ask me how they are going to charge the vehicle at the campsite to drive back. Haha
It says 300 miles range for the low end and 400 miles for the high end battery. (Should be enough idk)

Thanks for the post. That is an option.
I noticed that some camp sites have electric hookup. (trickle charge?)

Most RV campgrounds will have electric hookups (50 amp or 30 amp), but the appeal of a 4x4 is to go where normal RV's can't go. 

Another option that is popular with dry campers is portable solar panels.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: morekaos on November 18, 2021, 11:27:54 AM
Rivn isn't something I would trade myself but 70 is way out of the money. if it went from 3 to 5, that is a 67% gain. I'd be happy if I got that in a day or two.

That would be true if you were lucky enough to buy it on yesterdays close but people here look like they grabbed it the day before when it was over $5...like comedy...timing is everything.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: CalBears96 on November 18, 2021, 11:39:22 AM
Rivn isn't something I would trade myself but 70 is way out of the money. if it went from 3 to 5, that is a 67% gain. I'd be happy if I got that in a day or two.

Yeah, I think 70 is way out of the money. I bought another put yesterday to average down. I sold both puts this morning with a little gain.

I did one buy June $100 put yesterday since I figured that (1) it's after the lockup period and (2) $100 is much more achievable since it was trading at $100 on the IPO day.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: CalBears96 on November 18, 2021, 11:44:55 AM
So for calls and puts, are most money made when they are exercised or is it to sell the contract?

It takes a lot of money to exercise the call/put, so it's more profitable to sell the contract. And percentage wise, it's a whole lot more profitable to just trade calls/puts.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: morekaos on December 23, 2021, 08:07:42 AM
Take a good look at those March 70 puts...closed yesterday in the $5 range and as the stock dropped $20 plus points today, it went....down.  Closed $3.70x3.80 down $2.19.  Premium lost while the stock went in its direction...watch out.

These Option guys are amazing..revisit this trade after a month and a half of time premium lost, the stock is down another 30 points and the put?....Still arond $5.00...If you put that trade on in November , you took a lot of risk and are flat.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: BlackKnight on December 23, 2021, 08:16:03 AM
Just loaded 100 shares. Long on Rivian for at least 5 years. If it doesnt make it, it’s only a few grands.  :D
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on December 23, 2021, 10:14:47 AM
Just loaded 100 shares. Long on Rivian for at least 5 years. If it doesnt make it, it’s only a few grands.  :D

If you like Rivian u might want to take a flyer on Nikola
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: BlackKnight on December 23, 2021, 11:10:06 AM
Just loaded 100 shares. Long on Rivian for at least 5 years. If it doesnt make it, it’s only a few grands.  :D

If you like Rivian u might want to take a flyer on Nikola
Lol Nikola. R u kidding me? Where is its founder who defrauded investors with rolling the truck down the hill for demonstration? Dude was trying so hard to prove his case on Twitter. 
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: CalBears96 on December 23, 2021, 01:41:51 PM
Just loaded 100 shares. Long on Rivian for at least 5 years. If it doesnt make it, it’s only a few grands.  :D

If you like Rivian u might want to take a flyer on Nikola
Lol Nikola. R u kidding me? Where is its founder who defrauded investors with rolling the truck down the hill for demonstration? Dude was trying so hard to prove his case on Twitter.

Yeah, I would stay away from Nikola. I'm not invested in Rivian (bought a couple of puts when it was at $170, but sold for profit), but I hope it succeeds because I really dislike the way Cybertruck looks.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: BlackKnight on December 23, 2021, 02:27:09 PM
Just loaded 100 shares. Long on Rivian for at least 5 years. If it doesnt make it, it’s only a few grands.  :D

If you like Rivian u might want to take a flyer on Nikola
Lol Nikola. R u kidding me? Where is its founder who defrauded investors with rolling the truck down the hill for demonstration? Dude was trying so hard to prove his case on Twitter.

Yeah, I would stay away from Nikola. I'm not invested in Rivian (bought a couple of puts when it was at $170, but sold for profit), but I hope it succeeds because I really dislike the way Cybertruck looks.

I dont do day trading. That’s not investment. I saw R1T on the road in Irvine last week. It looks beautiful. I trust my gut feelings.  It is the same I felt when i saw few model 3 driving around Irvine  four years ago. I loaded quite a few shares of Tesla right after that and still holding on to those shares till this day.

It’s only $10k in Rivian. High risk high reward. 😀 I think Rivian’s potential is totally worth the risk.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: sleepy5136 on December 23, 2021, 03:00:50 PM
Just loaded 100 shares. Long on Rivian for at least 5 years. If it doesnt make it, it’s only a few grands.  :D

If you like Rivian u might want to take a flyer on Nikola
Lol Nikola. R u kidding me? Where is its founder who defrauded investors with rolling the truck down the hill for demonstration? Dude was trying so hard to prove his case on Twitter.

Yeah, I would stay away from Nikola. I'm not invested in Rivian (bought a couple of puts when it was at $170, but sold for profit), but I hope it succeeds because I really dislike the way Cybertruck looks.

I dont do day trading. That’s not investment. I saw R1T on the road in Irvine last week. It looks beautiful. I trust my gut feelings.  It is the same I felt when i saw few model 3 driving around Irvine  four years ago. I loaded quite a few shares of Tesla right after that and still holding on to those shares till this day.

It’s only $10k in Rivian. High risk high reward. 😀 I think Rivian’s potential is totally worth the risk.
The only concern I have is the constant narrative that higher interest rates will cause unprofitable companies to collapse in a rising interest rate environment. Rivian and lucid fall into this category. I do think the narrative is quite BS since a lot of these companies are reinvesting in their business instead of pleasing wall st.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: BlackKnight on December 24, 2021, 07:36:00 AM
Just loaded 100 shares. Long on Rivian for at least 5 years. If it doesnt make it, it’s only a few grands.  :D

If you like Rivian u might want to take a flyer on Nikola
Lol Nikola. R u kidding me? Where is its founder who defrauded investors with rolling the truck down the hill for demonstration? Dude was trying so hard to prove his case on Twitter.

Yeah, I would stay away from Nikola. I'm not invested in Rivian (bought a couple of puts when it was at $170, but sold for profit), but I hope it succeeds because I really dislike the way Cybertruck looks.

I dont do day trading. That’s not investment. I saw R1T on the road in Irvine last week. It looks beautiful. I trust my gut feelings.  It is the same I felt when i saw few model 3 driving around Irvine  four years ago. I loaded quite a few shares of Tesla right after that and still holding on to those shares till this day.

It’s only $10k in Rivian. High risk high reward. 😀 I think Rivian’s potential is totally worth the risk.
The only concern I have is the constant narrative that higher interest rates will cause unprofitable companies to collapse in a rising interest rate environment. Rivian and lucid fall into this category. I do think the narrative is quite BS since a lot of these companies are reinvesting in their business instead of pleasing wall st.

This may be the case with Lucid but not Rivian.  Considered rivalry between Bezos and Musk, no way Bezos would let Rivian failed. Worst case scenario, Amazon will take over Rivian.  Bezos needs his delivery fleet going green by 2030.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: CalBears96 on December 24, 2021, 02:20:47 PM
The only concern I have is the constant narrative that higher interest rates will cause unprofitable companies to collapse in a rising interest rate environment. Rivian and lucid fall into this category. I do think the narrative is quite BS since a lot of these companies are reinvesting in their business instead of pleasing wall st.

This may be the case with Lucid but not Rivian.  Considered rivalry between Bezos and Musk, no way Bezos would let Rivian failed. Worst case scenario, Amazon will take over Rivian.  Bezos needs his delivery fleet going green by 2030.

Agreed. If worse comes to worst, Bezos will just pump money into Rivian. Rivian has the orders. Just need to ramp up production, which will be a bit troublesome initially, until the chip shortage eases off, most likely in 2023.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: sleepy5136 on December 24, 2021, 03:14:52 PM
The only concern I have is the constant narrative that higher interest rates will cause unprofitable companies to collapse in a rising interest rate environment. Rivian and lucid fall into this category. I do think the narrative is quite BS since a lot of these companies are reinvesting in their business instead of pleasing wall st.

This may be the case with Lucid but not Rivian.  Considered rivalry between Bezos and Musk, no way Bezos would let Rivian failed. Worst case scenario, Amazon will take over Rivian.  Bezos needs his delivery fleet going green by 2030.

Agreed. If worse comes to worst, Bezos will just pump money into Rivian. Rivian has the orders. Just need to ramp up production, which will be a bit troublesome initially, until the chip shortage eases off, most likely in 2023.
Ah I wasn’t aware about the Amazon factor. That could potentially hurt amazons earnings. That stock has gone sideways for the past year or two. Although I do think Amazon could post crazy numbers if it wanted to but instead they are constantly investing in the future.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: CalBears96 on December 24, 2021, 05:05:10 PM
The only concern I have is the constant narrative that higher interest rates will cause unprofitable companies to collapse in a rising interest rate environment. Rivian and lucid fall into this category. I do think the narrative is quite BS since a lot of these companies are reinvesting in their business instead of pleasing wall st.

This may be the case with Lucid but not Rivian.  Considered rivalry between Bezos and Musk, no way Bezos would let Rivian failed. Worst case scenario, Amazon will take over Rivian.  Bezos needs his delivery fleet going green by 2030.

Agreed. If worse comes to worst, Bezos will just pump money into Rivian. Rivian has the orders. Just need to ramp up production, which will be a bit troublesome initially, until the chip shortage eases off, most likely in 2023.
Ah I wasn’t aware about the Amazon factor. That could potentially hurt amazons earnings. That stock has gone sideways for the past year or two. Although I do think Amazon could post crazy numbers if it wanted to but instead they are constantly investing in the future.

Basically, Amazon has 20% stake in Rivian. Amazon also placed an order for 100,000 electric last-mile delivery vans from Rivian to be delivered by 2030. Amazon hopes to have 10,000 of them on the road as early as next year.

The question is, can Rivian ramp up production? Chip shortage is expected to last throughout 2022 and will only ease off in 2023.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: BlackKnight on December 27, 2021, 09:09:23 AM
The only concern I have is the constant narrative that higher interest rates will cause unprofitable companies to collapse in a rising interest rate environment. Rivian and lucid fall into this category. I do think the narrative is quite BS since a lot of these companies are reinvesting in their business instead of pleasing wall st.

This may be the case with Lucid but not Rivian.  Considered rivalry between Bezos and Musk, no way Bezos would let Rivian failed. Worst case scenario, Amazon will take over Rivian.  Bezos needs his delivery fleet going green by 2030.

Agreed. If worse comes to worst, Bezos will just pump money into Rivian. Rivian has the orders. Just need to ramp up production, which will be a bit troublesome initially, until the chip shortage eases off, most likely in 2023.
Ah I wasn’t aware about the Amazon factor. That could potentially hurt amazons earnings. That stock has gone sideways for the past year or two. Although I do think Amazon could post crazy numbers if it wanted to but instead they are constantly investing in the future.

Basically, Amazon has 20% stake in Rivian. Amazon also placed an order for 100,000 electric last-mile delivery vans from Rivian to be delivered by 2030. Amazon hopes to have 10,000 of them on the road as early as next year.

The question is, can Rivian ramp up production? Chip shortage is expected to last throughout 2022 and will only ease off in 2023.
20% is an understatement. Bezos wants to fully automate last mile delivery and cut fuel costs.  RJ Scaringe needs AWS power and Amazon capital in order to compete with other big boys.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 27, 2021, 09:42:12 AM
It will be rebranded as the Amazon Fire Truck. :)
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: BlackKnight on December 27, 2021, 02:06:10 PM
It will be rebranded as the Amazon Fire Truck. :)

Fire Truck equiped with Fire tablet as standard feature 😀
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 28, 2021, 09:42:21 AM
If you guys want to make a few bucks....keep selling weekly out-of-money puts on PTON.  I've been doing it for the month and it's like a little printing press.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on December 30, 2021, 12:05:24 PM
If you guys want to make a few bucks....keep selling weekly out-of-money puts on PTON.  I've been doing it for the month and it's like a little printing press.

An interesting trading stock since you've been selling your puts. It's obviously in a downtrend but looking closer it has smaller moves of 12-25% losses (intraday high to intraday low) 2-7 days (lower number of days when it's "more sideways than down and higher number of days when it's slipping more) interspersed with 10-18% rallies from intraday lows to intraday highs 1-3 days long.

Are you planning on selling puts after new years? (I'm thinking they might warn and get a bigger move down than they've had since the last gap down).
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 30, 2021, 04:25:11 PM
If you guys want to make a few bucks....keep selling weekly out-of-money puts on PTON.  I've been doing it for the month and it's like a little printing press.

An interesting trading stock since you've been selling your puts. It's obviously in a downtrend but looking closer it has smaller moves of 12-25% losses (intraday high to intraday low) 2-7 days (lower number of days when it's "more sideways than down and higher number of days when it's slipping more) interspersed with 10-18% rallies from intraday lows to intraday highs 1-3 days long.

Are you planning on selling puts after new years? (I'm thinking they might warn and get a bigger move down than they've had since the last gap down).

I've also been selling out of the money calls on any pops (like today).  There is huge implied volatility so the option premiums are high.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on December 30, 2021, 06:24:21 PM
If you guys want to make a few bucks....keep selling weekly out-of-money puts on PTON.  I've been doing it for the month and it's like a little printing press.

An interesting trading stock since you've been selling your puts. It's obviously in a downtrend but looking closer it has smaller moves of 12-25% losses (intraday high to intraday low) 2-7 days (lower number of days when it's "more sideways than down and higher number of days when it's slipping more) interspersed with 10-18% rallies from intraday lows to intraday highs 1-3 days long.

Are you planning on selling puts after new years? (I'm thinking they might warn and get a bigger move down than they've had since the last gap down).

I've also been selling out of the money calls on any pops (like today).  There is huge implied volatility so the option premiums are high.

Wish I had seen this stock before you mentioned it. I didn't even notice how frequent the huge moves are because they look like little blips. Once I actually looked at intraday highs and lows I new this has been heaven for swing traders.

So I'm thinking this coronavirus could give us a substantial pull back. I'm guessing the headlines will be a million US cases in a day by Monday (assuming there is enough testing done). It seems that it's a much less deadly virus but enough cases could mean lots of workers not at work and a lot more in the hospital putting a real strain on things for a couple weeks at least.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: sleepy5136 on December 30, 2021, 07:18:00 PM
If you guys want to make a few bucks....keep selling weekly out-of-money puts on PTON.  I've been doing it for the month and it's like a little printing press.

An interesting trading stock since you've been selling your puts. It's obviously in a downtrend but looking closer it has smaller moves of 12-25% losses (intraday high to intraday low) 2-7 days (lower number of days when it's "more sideways than down and higher number of days when it's slipping more) interspersed with 10-18% rallies from intraday lows to intraday highs 1-3 days long.

Are you planning on selling puts after new years? (I'm thinking they might warn and get a bigger move down than they've had since the last gap down).

I've also been selling out of the money calls on any pops (like today).  There is huge implied volatility so the option premiums are high.

Wish I had seen this stock before you mentioned it. I didn't even notice how frequent the huge moves are because they look like little blips. Once I actually looked at intraday highs and lows I new this has been heaven for swing traders.

So I'm thinking this coronavirus could give us a substantial pull back. I'm guessing the headlines will be a million US cases in a day by Monday (assuming there is enough testing done). It seems that it's a much less deadly virus but enough cases could mean lots of workers not at work and a lot more in the hospital putting a real strain on things for a couple weeks at least.
I might be wrong but I believe the bottom was in before Xmas. Unless some other variant is introduced that is more deadly, having more cases doesn’t really mean much unless it leads to higher hospitalization and death rates which is not the case currently. Of course things could change. I feel like inflation data points could be more of a factor in market volatility more so than covid at this point.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on January 05, 2022, 03:14:49 PM
Oooff...

 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/05/rivian-stock-plunges-after-news-of-amazon-stellantis-deal.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/05/rivian-stock-plunges-after-news-of-amazon-stellantis-deal.html)

Hope the shorts were in some time ago.

Rivian should still do well selling their pickup truck, but if AMZ is buying delivery trucks from another vendor, that's going to punch a real hole in Rivian's growth plans.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 05, 2022, 03:55:44 PM
Seeing more Rivians around Irvine... all employees but it's a nice truck with tons of features... and the reviews are positive.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: CalBears96 on January 05, 2022, 04:03:53 PM
Oooff...

 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/05/rivian-stock-plunges-after-news-of-amazon-stellantis-deal.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/05/rivian-stock-plunges-after-news-of-amazon-stellantis-deal.html)

Hope the shorts were in some time ago.

Rivian should still do well selling their pickup truck, but if AMZ is buying delivery trucks from another vendor, that's going to punch a real hole in Rivian's growth plans.

I should have kept my $100 June 2022 put that I bought when Rivian was at $140. Sold it for a bit of gain. :P
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on January 20, 2022, 10:11:22 AM
If you guys want to make a few bucks....keep selling weekly out-of-money puts on PTON.  I've been doing it for the month and it's like a little printing press.

An interesting trading stock since you've been selling your puts. It's obviously in a downtrend but looking closer it has smaller moves of 12-25% losses (intraday high to intraday low) 2-7 days (lower number of days when it's "more sideways than down and higher number of days when it's slipping more) interspersed with 10-18% rallies from intraday lows to intraday highs 1-3 days long.

Are you planning on selling puts after new years? (I'm thinking they might warn and get a bigger move down than they've had since the last gap down).

I've also been selling out of the money calls on any pops (like today).  There is huge implied volatility so the option premiums are high.

Hope no one has sold puts on pton this week.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: The California Court Company on January 20, 2022, 10:23:05 AM
so we must be near the end of WFH trend…maybe housing price will stabilize soon.
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: eyephone on January 20, 2022, 10:53:14 AM
so we must be near the end of WFH trend…maybe housing price will stabilize soon.

Also has a lot to do with the investigation and the reference in the sex and the city show.

Peloton under investigation by the SEC and Department of Justice

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/08/28/business/peloton-investigations/index.html

How is Pennsylvania talk? Didnt you move there?
Title: Re: Short Rivian?
Post by: The California Court Company on January 27, 2022, 08:55:50 PM
great call. how much money op made?
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