Talk Irvine

General => Economy & Finance => Topic started by: eyephone on October 07, 2021, 12:18:52 PM

Title: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on October 07, 2021, 12:18:52 PM
CNBC: Chinese developer misses bond payment as stress spreads beyond Evergrande crisis

On the heels of Evergrande's debt crisis, there are increasing signs of stress in China's property market after one developer failed to make a bond payment on Tuesday.

Ratings agencies have downgraded Chinese developers Fantasia Holdings and Sinic Holdings over risks from their strained cash flow situations.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/05/china-property-default-risk-for-fantasia-sinic-amid-evergrande-crisis.html

Reminds me of the previous crisis.


The Guardian News: China’s factory activity in shock slowdown as energy crisis hits home

China’s factory activity has shrunk unexpectedly amid curbs on electricity use and rising prices for commodities and parts, raising more concerns about the state of the world’s second biggest economy.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/30/chinas-factory-activity-in-shock-slowdown-as-energy-crisis-hits-home

Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on October 07, 2021, 02:21:20 PM
Just like Japan in the 90's...same path.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: sleepy5136 on October 07, 2021, 02:43:36 PM
I would only be concerned if foreign national banks have heavy exposure to Chinese RE.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on October 07, 2021, 04:06:55 PM
I would only be concerned if foreign national banks have heavy exposure to Chinese RE.

Reuters News 9/21/21: BlackRock, HSBC among largest buyers of Evergrande debt: Morningstar

Fund giant BlackRock and investment banks HSBC and UBS were among the largest buyers of the debt of embattled Chinese real estate developer Evergrande Inc, Morningstar data shows.

BlackRock added 31.3 million notes of Evergrande's debt between January and August 2021, pushing its stake in the company to 1% of the assets in its $1.7 billion Asian High Yield Bond Fund, according to Morningstar.

HSBC increased its positions in the company by 40% through July, according to Morningstar. UBS increased its position by 25% through May, the latest date available in the fund tracker's database.

None of the companies responded to requests to comment for this story.

At the same time, other large fund firms such as Fidelity, Pimco, and Allianz cut their positions in the company by up to 47% between January and July, Morningstar said.

Growing fears that Evergrande will default on its $305 billion in liabilities has rattled global markets this week as investors worry that a downturn in the Chinese property market will spill over into the global economy.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/blackrock-hsbc-among-largest-buyers-evergrande-debt-morningstar-2021-09-21/





Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: sleepy5136 on October 07, 2021, 11:00:15 PM
Lol MeetKevin had a video explicitly detailing BlackRock and HSBC’s exposure. It’s tiny. You can go find that video. Initially he even thought it was a concern until he dug into the details.

Video: . He starts talking about it at the 12min mark
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on October 07, 2021, 11:27:01 PM
Axios News: Energy crises in Europe and China are spilling into economic forecasts, supply chains and beyond.

Driving the news: Europe has for weeks been facing sky-high natural gas and power prices, while China — the world's second-largest economy — is facing electricity shortages that are hobbling factories.

https://www.axios.com/energy-crises-europe-china-gas-power-electricity-aa877c09-b0f3-4057-af10-6ccebdeaf654.html

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/global-energy-shortage-or-coincidence-regional-crises-2021-09-29/

There might be a speculative play. (Not investment advice)
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on October 08, 2021, 11:58:11 AM
Lol MeetKevin had a video explicitly detailing BlackRock and HSBC’s exposure. It’s tiny. You can go find that video. Initially he even thought it was a concern until he dug into the details.

Video: . He starts talking about it at the 12min mark

It does not talk about the tightening credit market in China. According to Bloomberg, China’s $12 trillion domestic credit market has shown signs of strain. (Reported by Bloomberg 10/7/21)
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: sleepy5136 on October 13, 2021, 12:48:57 PM
BlackRock reported today. Stock up ~4% after ER. Didn't dig through the earnings but hearing good numbers. So that crosses out a big bank being impacted by Evergrande. Unless they are hiding this crap and not disclosing which I believe is illegal to begin with.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on October 13, 2021, 01:32:41 PM
BlackRock reported today. Stock up ~4% after ER. Didn't dig through the earnings but hearing good numbers. So that crosses out a big bank being impacted by Evergrande. Unless they are hiding this crap and not disclosing which I believe is illegal to begin with.

WSJ: BlackRock Profit Rose 23% in 3rd Quarter, Helped by Actively Managed Funds

Money managers’ assets and profits ballooned in the past year with the Federal Reserve pumping money into the economy and the stock market soaring.

Now investors have become more bearish on growing concerns about higher inflation, slowing U.S. economic growth, global energy shortages, and contagion from debt-laden property developer China Evergrande Group. An emerging markets’ selloff and lackluster S&P 500 returns in the latest quarter damped BlackRock’s asset growth.

In the last quarter, BlackRock raised about $1 billion for the first-ever mutual fund solely run by a foreign company for Chinese individuals. It is forging ahead with plans to grow in China even as U.S.-China tensions escalate.

As investors wait for a resolution to Evergrande’s debt troubles, Mr. Fink said the situation will likely result in “some losers,” and any policies by China to reduce its economy’s reliance on real estate could slow the country’s growth. BlackRock is among managers that hold Evergrande debt in funds.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackrock-profit-rose-23-in-third-quarter-11634122455

Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: sleepy5136 on October 13, 2021, 05:23:04 PM
BlackRock has exposure to Evergrande, but it's super small.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on October 19, 2021, 09:16:56 AM
This goes deeper than just Evergrande and they are trying to ignore it...

Defaults loom over more property developers as China reassures investors on Evergrande

All eyes will be on Chinese real estate developer Sinic Holdings, which warned last week it’s not likely to repay offshore bonds worth $250 million due on Monday.
On Friday, another developer, China Properties Group, said it had defaulted on $226 million worth of notes.
Ratings agencies issued a fresh round of downgrades on Chinese property firms last week.
It comes as investors remain in limbo as uncertainty over the fate of heavily indebted Evergrande looms.

1. China Aoyuan
On Friday evening, S&P Global Ratings downgraded China Aoyuan, one of the bigger developers in China’s Guangdong province which focuses on the country’s Greater Bay area. The ratings agency pointed to its high debt, and said the firm’s move to reduce debt will slow over the next year.

It also flagged Aoyuan’s “considerable” bond maturities due in 2022, which will put further pressure on the property firm.

One thing we can be sure of is that the property sector is struggling.
Julian Evans-Pritchard
SENIOR CHINA ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS
“The company’s reduced visibility on revenue growth and continued margin pressure will hinder deleveraging efforts. Weakening cash generation will also pressure Aoyuan’s liquidity as it faces sizable maturities in 2022, despite our expectation that the company can still sort out the repayment under a tighter situation,” S&P said.

2. Modern Land
Fitch also downgraded Modern Land on Friday, citing the developer’s move to delay for three months a repayment on a $250 million offshore bond.

3. Greenland Holding
Preceding Friday’s downgrades, S&P on Thursday downgraded Greenland Holding — one of the bigger real estate developers which has prestigious properties in cities such as New York, London and Sydney. It also cited its “impaired” funding access, which will limit its ability to weather the downturn in the property industry. Fitch said it expects the firm’s ability to generate cash to slow.

“Greenland’s bond prices have deteriorated sharply again following wider investor concerns over the sector,” Fitch wrote. “A prolonged weakness in bond prices may hit the confidence of the company’s borrowers, suppliers, and purchasers.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/china-property-defaults-risks-for-other-developers-pboc-on-evergrande.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/china-property-defaults-risks-for-other-developers-pboc-on-evergrande.html)
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Compressed-Village on October 19, 2021, 10:06:16 AM
This is first of the dominos. It won’t be fast and furious, but nonetheless, it will fall one after another. Ever grande is not just housing developers, they are in the EV market too, among other (was) high flying sectors in China.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: sleepy5136 on October 19, 2021, 10:13:34 AM
I think we also need to understand the exposures that these companies have to other international banks. Thus far, it's only BlackRock that I would be concerned about but their exposure is very small compared to their other positions. Throwing headlines out there when the next crash or global crisis always catches eyeballs. But we need to have data/facts to prove that this is an actual concern. If any international bank had a big exposure to Evergrande, I'm so sure that it would have been disclosed by now.

TBH not a lot of international banks invest in China to begin with and even if they do, it's super tiny exposure. I mean, how many of you have Chinese investments? And if so, how much %? We need to put things into perspective instead of simply throwing out articles that shows no facts as to how it could potentially spill over to another global economy like Europe or US.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: nosuchreality on October 19, 2021, 10:21:39 AM
Meh, if we can patch up Long Term Capital, Goldman, BofA, Wells, Merrill, United, GM,  China can patch up theirs too.

It’s a giant house of cards of paper money of Wimpy hamburger IOUs for Next Tuesday.

As long as the wage slaves keep grinding it out every day for a shiny new cell phone, a fast food lunch and a place to sleep, it’ll march.

Seems like the noise is a lot of wage slaves are checking out.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on October 19, 2021, 10:33:24 AM
Business Insider Article:

Key points of the article

A bankruptcy could be disastrous for Chinese homeowners, who hold 70% of their wealth in real estate.

It has 1.6 million undelivered apartments and is more than $300 billion in debt, making it the most indebted company in the world.

How big is China's real estate market?
China's real-estate sector is huge. According to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the total value of the market hit $52 trillion in 2019 — twice the size of the US residential housing market, The Wall Street Journal reported. The sector accounts for 29% of China's gross domestic product (GDP). And its cities are growing rapidly: In 2019, China recorded a 60% urbanization rate.

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-housing-market-explainer-cost-debt-wealth-evergrande-impact-2021-9

The main problem is the missed bond payments and unfinished units.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on October 19, 2021, 11:22:22 AM
They're having their own S&L Crisis...that was fun here for those of you who were in the game in the mid 90's.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: nosuchreality on October 19, 2021, 12:52:39 PM
They're having their own S&L Crisis...that was fun here for those of you who were in the game in the mid 90's.

That was started in the 80s, deregulation, junk bonds and LBOs. 

Mr. M is doing fine, lots of wage slaves, not so much.

Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on October 19, 2021, 03:39:03 PM
I loved that period of time. Earned my first bundle after the crash of ‘87. Bought my first yacht in 1990. Bought my first house in 1997. Right at the bottom.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 19, 2021, 06:13:28 PM
Meh, if we can patch up Long Term Capital, Goldman, BofA, Wells, Merrill, United, GM,  China can patch up theirs too.

It’s a giant house of cards of paper money of Wimpy hamburger IOUs for Next Tuesday.

As long as the wage slaves keep grinding it out every day for a shiny new cell phone, a fast food lunch and a place to sleep, it’ll march.

Seems like the noise is a lot of wage slaves are checking out.

Just like the FED can keep kicking the can down the road forever so can the Chinese gov't, nothing to see here.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on October 20, 2021, 11:25:56 AM
Meh, if we can patch up Long Term Capital, Goldman, BofA, Wells, Merrill, United, GM,  China can patch up theirs too.

It’s a giant house of cards of paper money of Wimpy hamburger IOUs for Next Tuesday.

As long as the wage slaves keep grinding it out every day for a shiny new cell phone, a fast food lunch and a place to sleep, it’ll march.

Seems like the noise is a lot of wage slaves are checking out.

Just like the FED can keep kicking the can down the road forever so can the Chinese gov't, nothing to see here.

Nothing to see?
Almost the same response from a famous analyst when a caller asked about bear stearns liquidity.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Liar Loan on October 20, 2021, 12:30:27 PM
Meh, if we can patch up Long Term Capital, Goldman, BofA, Wells, Merrill, United, GM,  China can patch up theirs too.

It’s a giant house of cards of paper money of Wimpy hamburger IOUs for Next Tuesday.

As long as the wage slaves keep grinding it out every day for a shiny new cell phone, a fast food lunch and a place to sleep, it’ll march.

Seems like the noise is a lot of wage slaves are checking out.

Just like the FED can keep kicking the can down the road forever so can the Chinese gov't, nothing to see here.

Forever is a very long time. 

A new report today shows Chinese home prices are declining in what for them, is the hottest home buying season.  When 25% of GDP is tied to that one industry, it could be a sign of worse things to come.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 20, 2021, 01:39:01 PM
Meh, if we can patch up Long Term Capital, Goldman, BofA, Wells, Merrill, United, GM,  China can patch up theirs too.

It’s a giant house of cards of paper money of Wimpy hamburger IOUs for Next Tuesday.

As long as the wage slaves keep grinding it out every day for a shiny new cell phone, a fast food lunch and a place to sleep, it’ll march.

Seems like the noise is a lot of wage slaves are checking out.

Just like the FED can keep kicking the can down the road forever so can the Chinese gov't, nothing to see here.

Forever is a very long time. 

A new report today shows Chinese home prices are declining in what for them, is the hottest home buying season.  When 25% of GDP is tied to that one industry, it could be a sign of worse things to come.

Ok, let me rephrase....the FED and the Chinese gov't can kick the can down the road longer than any one of us will be alive. 
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on October 20, 2021, 08:16:36 PM
Well, do they have enough fingers to stick in the dyke?

Evergrande is ‘just the beginning’: Professor says more firms must exit China’s property sector


China’s real estate sector has to be “substantially smaller” to keep the overall economy healthy and stable, said Li Gan, economics professor at Texas A&M University.
“We have too big of a risk in the sector. We built too much housing, so the stabilization first has to come [from] trimming the sector,” said Gan.
Gan estimated that about 20% of China’s housing stock is left vacant, yet developers continue to build millions of new units each year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/21/china-economy-property-sector-must-shrink-to-be-stable-says-prof.html? (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/21/china-economy-property-sector-must-shrink-to-be-stable-says-prof.html?)

China Evergrande shares briefly plunge more than 10%, after $2.6 billion asset sale falls through

Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: zubs on October 21, 2021, 10:39:42 AM
Everytime you think shits about to get real, something like this happens:
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/china-evergrande-shares-set-slide-012744967.html (https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/china-evergrande-shares-set-slide-012744967.html)

A bond extension when they were suppose to go into default OCT 23.

The can will be kicked forever much like USA.


So when we play with stocks or real estate, we are just betting on government interventions. 

Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: sleepy5136 on October 24, 2021, 11:35:48 PM
HSBC had earnings and killed it. No direct impact from evergrande. So BlackRock and HSBC being the international banks both mentioned little to no exposure.

https://twitter.com/emilycnbc/status/1452496257071550471?s=21
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on October 26, 2021, 09:46:37 AM
Well thats one way to plug the dyke that we don't really have here...force the guy to cover his bets... ;D ;D >:D

China urges Evergrande founder to pay debt with personal wealth — sources


BEIJING (Oct 26): Chinese authorities have told billionaire Hui Ka Yan to use his personal wealth to alleviate China Evergrande Group's deepening debt crisis, according to people familiar with the matter.

Beijing's directive to the Evergrande founder came after his company missed an initial Sept 23 deadline for a coupon payment on a dollar bond, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. Local governments across China are monitoring Evergrande's bank accounts to ensure company cash is used to complete unfinished housing projects and not diverted to pay creditors, the people said.

The demand that Hui tap his own fortune to pay Evergrande's debt adds to signs that Beijing is reluctant to orchestrate a government rescue, even as the property giant's crisis spreads to other developers and sours sentiment in the real estate market. Chinese President Xi Jinping has been cracking down on the billionaire class as part of his "common prosperity" campaign to reduce the country's yawning wealth gap.

It is unclear whether Hui's fortune is big and liquid enough to make a sizeable dent in Evergrande's liabilities, which swelled to more than US$300 billion as of June. The developer's dollar bonds are trading at deep discounts to par value as investors brace for what could be one of China's largest-ever debt restructurings.

https://maa.theedgemarkets.com/article/china-urges-evergrande-founder-pay-debt-personal-wealth-%E2%80%94-sources (https://maa.theedgemarkets.com/article/china-urges-evergrande-founder-pay-debt-personal-wealth-%E2%80%94-sources)
Title: Natural gas prices are skyrocketing around the world.
Post by: eyephone on October 27, 2021, 10:13:20 AM
CNBC: Natural gas prices are skyrocketing around the world.

Natural gas and power prices in Europe and Asia are at record highs, while U.S. prices have doubled this year.

Multiple factors have contributed to the energy crunch, including demand bouncing back while supply remains constrained.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/natural-gas-prices-are-skyrocketing-globally-what-it-means-for-the-us.html
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on October 27, 2021, 10:18:42 AM
CNBC: Empty shelves, gasoline shortages and sky-high energy prices? Britain is facing a ‘difficult winter’

Britain has been plunged into uncertainty as issues over gasoline, electricity and food have prompted warnings of "a really difficult winter" for the country.
A significant lack of truck drivers has meant deliveries of fuel and goods have fallen short.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/24/empty-shelves-and-gasoline-shortages-uk-facing-a-difficult-winter.html


Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: sleepy5136 on October 28, 2021, 11:37:31 AM
CNBC: Empty shelves, gasoline shortages and sky-high energy prices? Britain is facing a ‘difficult winter’

Britain has been plunged into uncertainty as issues over gasoline, electricity and food have prompted warnings of "a really difficult winter" for the country.
A significant lack of truck drivers has meant deliveries of fuel and goods have fallen short.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/24/empty-shelves-and-gasoline-shortages-uk-facing-a-difficult-winter.html
Empty shelves on what items though? PS5? graphic cards? My day to day items that I am buying at Costco is never out of stock. If we are missing day to day items not being in shelves I think that could be a potential issue going forward but that is not the case.

Oil prices have ticked down lately and I think sky high is a bit exaggerated. Don't think these issues would cause a global crisis..
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: sleepy5136 on October 28, 2021, 11:39:21 AM
Well thats one way to plug the dyke that we don't really have here...force the guy to cover his bets... ;D ;D >:D

China urges Evergrande founder to pay debt with personal wealth — sources


BEIJING (Oct 26): Chinese authorities have told billionaire Hui Ka Yan to use his personal wealth to alleviate China Evergrande Group's deepening debt crisis, according to people familiar with the matter.

Beijing's directive to the Evergrande founder came after his company missed an initial Sept 23 deadline for a coupon payment on a dollar bond, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. Local governments across China are monitoring Evergrande's bank accounts to ensure company cash is used to complete unfinished housing projects and not diverted to pay creditors, the people said.

The demand that Hui tap his own fortune to pay Evergrande's debt adds to signs that Beijing is reluctant to orchestrate a government rescue, even as the property giant's crisis spreads to other developers and sours sentiment in the real estate market. Chinese President Xi Jinping has been cracking down on the billionaire class as part of his "common prosperity" campaign to reduce the country's yawning wealth gap.

It is unclear whether Hui's fortune is big and liquid enough to make a sizeable dent in Evergrande's liabilities, which swelled to more than US$300 billion as of June. The developer's dollar bonds are trading at deep discounts to par value as investors brace for what could be one of China's largest-ever debt restructurings.

https://maa.theedgemarkets.com/article/china-urges-evergrande-founder-pay-debt-personal-wealth-%E2%80%94-sources (https://maa.theedgemarkets.com/article/china-urges-evergrande-founder-pay-debt-personal-wealth-%E2%80%94-sources)
Wow, I actually agree with China on this.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 28, 2021, 03:42:24 PM
Everytime you think shits about to get real, something like this happens:
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/china-evergrande-shares-set-slide-012744967.html (https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/china-evergrande-shares-set-slide-012744967.html)

A bond extension when they were suppose to go into default OCT 23.

The can will be kicked forever much like USA.


So when we play with stocks or real estate, we are just betting on government interventions. 



Yup, and China has a stronger leg to keep kicking the can down the road for a long time.  I mean, what's the other option...revolution?  Yeah, that's not going to happen.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on October 28, 2021, 03:46:11 PM
CNBC: Empty shelves, gasoline shortages and sky-high energy prices? Britain is facing a ‘difficult winter’

Britain has been plunged into uncertainty as issues over gasoline, electricity and food have prompted warnings of "a really difficult winter" for the country.
A significant lack of truck drivers has meant deliveries of fuel and goods have fallen short.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/24/empty-shelves-and-gasoline-shortages-uk-facing-a-difficult-winter.html
Empty shelves on what items though? PS5? graphic cards? My day to day items that I am buying at Costco is never out of stock. If we are missing day to day items not being in shelves I think that could be a potential issue going forward but that is not the case.

Oil prices have ticked down lately and I think sky high is a bit exaggerated. Don't think these issues would cause a global crisis..

That was a UK article. To show that there is an energy crisis around the world not just in the US as the other misinfo guy likes to state.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on October 28, 2021, 03:47:37 PM
Your comment should be for the misinfo guy. (Lies more than Ted tbh)
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on October 28, 2021, 03:48:40 PM
A lot of people complain about gas prices. Look at the UK some or most places are out of gas and/or have to wait a long time for gas. gg
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on November 04, 2021, 08:09:04 PM
The dyke is still leaking…

Chinese real estate developer Kaisa halts trading in Hong Kong, as debt concerns escalate

Hong Kong-listed Chinese real estate developer Kaisa Group Holdings and three of its subsidiaries suspended trading in their shares on Friday ahead of the market open.
Kaisa said Thursday that its finance unit missed a payment on a wealth management product, amid increased worries about its strained liquidity.
Among Chinese developers, the company ranks second only to Evergrande in terms of issuance of U.S. dollar-denominated offshore high-yield bonds, according to Natixis.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/05/china-debt-concerns-property-developer-kaisa-halts-hong-kong-trading.html? (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/05/china-debt-concerns-property-developer-kaisa-halts-hong-kong-trading.html?)

Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: sleepy5136 on November 04, 2021, 08:24:00 PM
I just looked at Kaisa’s market cap. 7B. Baby stuff. Evergrande is ~31B for reference.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on December 07, 2021, 10:21:50 AM
It ain't over till its over..

World holds its breath as Chinese property titan Evergrande teeters on the brink of collapse

Financial institutions and developers around the world were on alert after Evergrande warned it will not be able to pay back its debts.

The Chinese property giant is understood to be on the brink of collapse with Asian and Western banks braced for the largest default since Lehman Brothers went bust in 2008.

Evergrande, which has debts of more than £300billion, has been struggling to meet debt repayments since September. Much of the money is owed to firms outside China.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-10281101/World-holds-breath-Evergrande-teeters-brink-collapse.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-10281101/World-holds-breath-Evergrande-teeters-brink-collapse.html)

Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: sleepy5136 on December 07, 2021, 11:38:15 AM
It ain't over till its over..

World holds its breath as Chinese property titan Evergrande teeters on the brink of collapse

Financial institutions and developers around the world were on alert after Evergrande warned it will not be able to pay back its debts.

The Chinese property giant is understood to be on the brink of collapse with Asian and Western banks braced for the largest default since Lehman Brothers went bust in 2008.

Evergrande, which has debts of more than £300billion, has been struggling to meet debt repayments since September. Much of the money is owed to firms outside China.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-10281101/World-holds-breath-Evergrande-teeters-brink-collapse.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-10281101/World-holds-breath-Evergrande-teeters-brink-collapse.html)


Let's be real, Blackrock holds barely anything.

As for UBS exposure, here is the following quote from them:
"UBS Group AG’s exposure to stricken property developer China Evergrande Group is “immaterial” and limited to the execution of collateral calls on margin loans, Chief Executive Officer Ralph Hamers said Thursday."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-23/ubs-plays-down-evergrande-exposure-as-dollar-bond-doubts-grow

For Bluebay, it's also limited exposure: "BlueBay told Reuters its holding was "very limited" and that it has been reducing it since August-end."
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2021-09-27/bluebay-a-buyer-of-evergrande-debt-ashmore-ubs-exposed-morningstar

It's easy to throw articles to try to scare everyone. Just like how there were articles of all these "famous" hedge fund managers going on CNBC or writing an article saying "the worst crash and bubble is yet to come". And here we are today with the S&P up 2%+ and NASDAQ up 3%+
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on December 07, 2021, 11:46:47 AM
This is following the Japan Late 80's -90's asset crash.  We did just fine.  They flattened out for the next 20 years.  Cycles gotta cycle.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on December 07, 2021, 11:51:28 AM
The other issue is China and Taiwan crisis.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: sleepy5136 on December 07, 2021, 11:56:52 AM
This is following the Japan Late 80's -90's asset crash.  We did just fine.  They flattened out for the next 20 years.  Cycles gotta cycle.
put your money where your mouth is. show us that you are shorting the market. otherwise it's all chirping.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Liar Loan on December 07, 2021, 12:01:47 PM
This is following the Japan Late 80's -90's asset crash.  We did just fine.  They flattened out for the next 20 years.  Cycles gotta cycle.
put your money where your mouth is. show us that you are shorting the market. otherwise it's all chirping.

You don't need to short the market to believe we are in a bubble; You simply need to watch the signs and have an exit plan once the music stops.  Lots of money can be made on bubbles.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: sleepy5136 on December 07, 2021, 12:07:01 PM
This is following the Japan Late 80's -90's asset crash.  We did just fine.  They flattened out for the next 20 years.  Cycles gotta cycle.
put your money where your mouth is. show us that you are shorting the market. otherwise it's all chirping.

You don't need to short the market to believe we are in a bubble; You simply need to watch the signs and have an exit plan once the music stops.  Lots of money can be made on bubbles.
If you're so confident about a bubble. Why aren't you putting a bet on your strong beliefs? If I was that confident of a bubble, I would put money on my bets. Not sit here and chirp.

what "bubble" are you talking about? Companies right now while trading at rich valuations have services and products that actually give value. It's not some random company that goes public like in the dot com days. Look at PYPL, SQ, DOCU, V, etc. These are one of the best companies in the US that all tanked. A lot of them were due to omnicron over exaggeration and some are earnings.

If you're talking about legit bubbles, it would be a few stocks off the top of my head like Lucid and Rivian. Those are concerning but let's not act like the entire market has valuations like Lucid and Rivian.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on December 07, 2021, 12:40:37 PM
This is following the Japan Late 80's -90's asset crash.  We did just fine.  They flattened out for the next 20 years.  Cycles gotta cycle.
put your money where your mouth is. show us that you are shorting the market. otherwise it's all chirping.

 

Why would I do that?  This is not an investing blog on Robin hood.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on December 07, 2021, 12:45:36 PM
This is following the Japan Late 80's -90's asset crash.  We did just fine.  They flattened out for the next 20 years.  Cycles gotta cycle.
put your money where your mouth is. show us that you are shorting the market. otherwise it's all chirping.

You don't need to short the market to believe we are in a bubble; You simply need to watch the signs and have an exit plan once the music stops.  Lots of money can be made on bubbles.
If you're so confident about a bubble. Why aren't you putting a bet on your strong beliefs? If I was that confident of a bubble, I would put money on my bets. Not sit here and chirp.

what "bubble" are you talking about? Companies right now while trading at rich valuations have services and products that actually give value. It's not some random company that goes public like in the dot com days. Look at PYPL, SQ, DOCU, V, etc. These are one of the best companies in the US that all tanked. A lot of them were due to omnicron over exaggeration and some are earnings.

If you're talking about legit bubbles, it would be a few stocks off the top of my head like Lucid and Rivian. Those are concerning but let's not act like the entire market has valuations like Lucid and Rivian.

I have been through at least 5 major asset bubbles in my 35 year career.  Those in the middle of a bubble (Real estate 07, .com '99,  Gold '12)  they never know they are in one till it's too late.  Asset bubbles unwind over time.  Putting on a short is a trade...very different from a macro trend call.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: fatduck on December 07, 2021, 01:56:29 PM
"equities will go down at some point but might go up first"

I'll take my nobel prize to go
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: sleepy5136 on December 07, 2021, 02:34:09 PM
This is following the Japan Late 80's -90's asset crash.  We did just fine.  They flattened out for the next 20 years.  Cycles gotta cycle.
put your money where your mouth is. show us that you are shorting the market. otherwise it's all chirping.

You don't need to short the market to believe we are in a bubble; You simply need to watch the signs and have an exit plan once the music stops.  Lots of money can be made on bubbles.
If you're so confident about a bubble. Why aren't you putting a bet on your strong beliefs? If I was that confident of a bubble, I would put money on my bets. Not sit here and chirp.

what "bubble" are you talking about? Companies right now while trading at rich valuations have services and products that actually give value. It's not some random company that goes public like in the dot com days. Look at PYPL, SQ, DOCU, V, etc. These are one of the best companies in the US that all tanked. A lot of them were due to omnicron over exaggeration and some are earnings.

If you're talking about legit bubbles, it would be a few stocks off the top of my head like Lucid and Rivian. Those are concerning but let's not act like the entire market has valuations like Lucid and Rivian.

I have been through at least 5 major asset bubbles in my 35 year career.  Those in the middle of a bubble (Real estate 07, .com '99,  Gold '12)  they never know they are in one till it's too late.  Asset bubbles unwind over time.  Putting on a short is a trade...very different from a macro trend call.
I don't think you get my point. My point is if you're going to start sounding alarms and feel confident about a bubble, put your money where your mouth is.

I find it hilarious how people like to sound alarms but don't put their money where their mouth is. And guess what? 99% of them are wrong anyways. Then you see them disappear for some time, and they will make another theory and disappear again... The cycle continues until they "hopefully" get right about one of the bubbles they mentioned in the past X years.

TBH I don't even know what point you're trying to convey. That a bubble exists? What bubble are we talking about? And are you making adjustments to your portfolio to show that you believe of this "bubble"?
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on December 07, 2021, 03:25:42 PM
The question of this thread is a discussion of whether a global crisis is coming and what events today may cause it….not how to protect your portfolio during a sell off. If you want to discuss that, start a thread. This one is currently exploring the possibility that an asset bubble in China may be the focus of that possibility.  Most recessions begin with an asset bubble popping.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Liar Loan on December 08, 2021, 09:37:16 AM
This is following the Japan Late 80's -90's asset crash.  We did just fine.  They flattened out for the next 20 years.  Cycles gotta cycle.
put your money where your mouth is. show us that you are shorting the market. otherwise it's all chirping.

You don't need to short the market to believe we are in a bubble; You simply need to watch the signs and have an exit plan once the music stops.  Lots of money can be made on bubbles.
If you're so confident about a bubble. Why aren't you putting a bet on your strong beliefs? If I was that confident of a bubble, I would put money on my bets. Not sit here and chirp.

what "bubble" are you talking about? Companies right now while trading at rich valuations have services and products that actually give value. It's not some random company that goes public like in the dot com days. Look at PYPL, SQ, DOCU, V, etc. These are one of the best companies in the US that all tanked. A lot of them were due to omnicron over exaggeration and some are earnings.

If you're talking about legit bubbles, it would be a few stocks off the top of my head like Lucid and Rivian. Those are concerning but let's not act like the entire market has valuations like Lucid and Rivian.

I have been through at least 5 major asset bubbles in my 35 year career.  Those in the middle of a bubble (Real estate 07, .com '99,  Gold '12)  they never know they are in one till it's too late.  Asset bubbles unwind over time.  Putting on a short is a trade...very different from a macro trend call.
I don't think you get my point. My point is if you're going to start sounding alarms and feel confident about a bubble, put your money where your mouth is.

I find it hilarious how people like to sound alarms but don't put their money where their mouth is. And guess what? 99% of them are wrong anyways. Then you see them disappear for some time, and they will make another theory and disappear again... The cycle continues until they "hopefully" get right about one of the bubbles they mentioned in the past X years.

TBH I don't even know what point you're trying to convey. That a bubble exists? What bubble are we talking about? And are you making adjustments to your portfolio to show that you believe of this "bubble"?

Of course I'm positioned based on my view of the market.  Is there anybody in the world that this doesn't apply to?

I've called several bubble right here on TalkIrvine - gold in '12, crypto in '17, and the Irvine home price slump in 2018.  After awhile, these things become easy to spot because the same patterns repeat again and again.

The bubble I'm speaking of today is in the price of money.  Overinflated home prices, stock values, crypto mania, and collectibles are all just symptoms of the larger sickness.  Our economy is in for nasty times ahead.  It's going to be the mother of all hangovers.  By warning people, I'm providing something for them to think about so they can position their portfolios accordingly. 

I'm not naive - I know most readers on this forum are hard-headed and will ignore the data staring them in the face because it means admitting they were wrong, but it's still worthwhile to have the discussion because I'm willing to have my views challenged by them.

Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on December 08, 2021, 09:46:28 AM
I agree...and it is not political.  this is a business cycle and although they all have differences the cycle is the cycle.  the inflation portion of the cycle will give way to a recession...it always does.  Our cycles have become compressed by the Covid situation.   Recession was foisted upon us with the shutdown...followed by compressed expansion and inflation.  Just as Government intervention in the financial and Real estate markets stretched and expanded the length of that growth cycle (never seemed to grow but it really did over 5 Obama years at an excruciatingly slow 1.9% GDB)  This cycle is turbo charged and the fall will be more precipitous but I hope shorter in duration.  the question here is what will start it?   Debt collapse is always a suspect but will it be here or in China?  We are going to see.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on December 08, 2021, 08:46:08 PM
This is a problem….

China's vegetable prices surge 30.6% in November as food costs soar

Fresh vegetable prices in China surged by 30.6% in November from a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
The price of pork, a staple in Chinese diets, remained well bellow the highs of last year with a year-on-year decline of 32.7% in November. But pork prices rose 12.2% from October.
Food prices are on the rise globally, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/chinas-vegetable-prices-surge-306-25-in-november-as-food-costs-soar/ar-AARD0H1?ocid=uxbndlbing
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Cares on December 09, 2021, 12:45:15 PM
China Evergrande Defaults on Its Debt. Now What?

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/09/business/china-evergrande-default.html
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on December 09, 2021, 03:37:44 PM
The plot thickens….

Chinese property giant Evergrande defaults on $300billion debt: Beijing prepares 'controlled demolition' of the firm to protect its economy amid fears it could have global consequences

Chinese property giant Evergrande has defaulted on $1.2billion in bond debt
It marks the first time the firm has defaulted on debts totalling some $300billion
Evergrande ran into trouble amid Chinese crackdown on property speculation
There are fears that Evergrande could have knock-on effect on global economy

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10292447/Debt-crippled-Chinese-property-giant-Evergrande-defaults-time.html



Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on December 20, 2021, 12:09:20 AM
CNBC: China's property distress sours steel sector in warning sign for economy

Debt problems at a major Chinese property developer have now spilled over into a vital artery of the nation's industrial engine - the steel sector - and started to ripple through to other critical parts of the world's second-largest economy.

The spreading balance-sheet crisis at real estate firms is a warning for policymakers as a swing in the fortunes of the steel industry would have significant repercussions for China's economy, with cement, glass, and household appliances all vulnerable to demand drops.

Already, steel prices are down from their record highs seen earlier this year due to easing demand from construction activities, which account for over half of the metal's consumption, while steelmakers' share prices have also been hurt.

Share prices of major Chinese listed firms dropped from high levels in recent months on easing demand and lower raw materials prices.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/19/chinas-property-distress-sours-steel-sector-in-warning-sign-for-economy.html



Title: CNBC: Evergrande default is highly likely, S&P says
Post by: eyephone on December 20, 2021, 12:19:57 AM
CNBC: Evergrande default is highly likely, S&P says

"The firm has lost the capacity to sell new homes, which means its main business model is effectively defunct," the report said.

Highly indebted property developer China Evergrande will likely default because the company has essentially lost its main business, S&P Global Ratings analysts said in a report Thursday.

Evergrande was China's second-largest developer by sales last year. Like many Chinese developers, the company sold apartments to consumers before completion, helping to generate capital for future projects.

But that cash flow cycle is running into problems. Despite the company's ability to sell assets and find ways to make payments in time, "Evergrande's massive debt will catch up with it," the S&P report said.

"The firm has lost the capacity to sell new homes, which means its main business model is effectively defunct. This makes full repayment of its debts unlikely," the analysts said.

"We still believe an Evergrande default is highly likely," the report said.

Evergrande did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment on the S&P report.

While the developer has managed to stave off default with last-minute payments, the analysts said Evergrande's bigger test will be when $3.5 billion comes due for U.S. dollar-denominated notes in March and April next year.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/11/18/china-evergrande-default-is-highly-likely-sp-says.html

No indication that their government is stepping in. Many other companies are experiencing problems.
Tbh it looks like a big mess.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Compressed-Village on December 28, 2021, 09:23:09 AM
A must read QE programs why and how. What the coming years will look like, if FED do stick to ending it.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/12/28/inflation-interest-rates-thomas-hoenig-federal-reserve-526177
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on January 02, 2022, 10:05:28 PM
Halted

Asia stocks mixed as trading in 2022 kicks off; Evergrande shares halted

Trading in the shares and structured products of debt-ridden Chinese developer China Evergrande Group was halted in Hong Kong on Monday, according to an exchange notice. No immediate reason was given for the halt.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/03/asia-markets-first-trading-day-of-2022-currencies-oil.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Message
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 03, 2022, 03:46:48 PM
LOL at the "Irvine home price slump in 2018".

According to a thread here... that was everywhere... not just Irvine... and it turned out to be what? Had you bought anytime around 2018 in Irvine (or somewhere else in the OC like LL contends), you made out... so nothing really to call in 2018.

But I do agree on bubbliness on some of those other things... especially collectibles. :)
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 03, 2022, 03:51:30 PM
Here is a chart for Irvine RE prices the last 5 years... where is that great slump of 2018? Looks "seasonal". :)

(https://i.ibb.co/BtDXNP5/Irvine-5-Years.png) (https://ibb.co/s2S0HPd)

https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Liar Loan on January 04, 2022, 09:54:27 AM
Here is a chart for Irvine RE prices the last 5 years... where is that great slump of 2018? Looks "seasonal". :)

(https://i.ibb.co/BtDXNP5/Irvine-5-Years.png) (https://ibb.co/s2S0HPd)

https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

Agreed...The gains look seasonal, while the norm is flat with little to no movement for Irvine.
Title: 'Return our money!' Evergrande investors protest at office of Chinese developer
Post by: eyephone on January 05, 2022, 10:41:23 AM
Reuters: 'Return our money!' Evergrande investors protest at office of Chinese developer

Investors in financial products issued by China Evergrande Group protested outside the cash-strapped company's offices in Guangzhou on Tuesday, with many worried that their returns would be sacrificed to keep real estate projects afloat.

Members of the crowd of roughly 100 people shouted "Evergrande, return our money!", reprising a chant used by disgruntled investors and suppliers last autumn as the deterioration in its financial position became apparent.

The change sparked investor fear that they won't get their money back.

"I think it's hopeless, and I'm scared, but if we don't fight for our rights, that's worse," said a retired woman surnamed Du who was among those outside Evergrande's offices in the southern Chinese metropolis and said she had invested one million yuan in Evergrande wealth management products.

"The economy's not good at the moment, these are ordinary people and they need this money for kids, for supporting their parents," she said.

China Evergrande did not respond to a request for comment on the protest or on the concerns of the investors.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/evergrande-return-our-money-investors-protest-office-chinese-developer-2022-01-04/



Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 08:07:05 AM
We can officially say there is a global crisis.
Russia attacked Ukraine last night.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 11:14:31 AM
I already predicted this mess.
What is the next country after Ukraine?
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on February 24, 2022, 11:18:17 AM
Weak US....next invasion?...Taiwan.

Taiwan scrambles fighter planes as nine Chinese aircraft enter its air defence zone on the day Russia invades Ukraine
Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, has complained of regular similar missions by the Chinese air force over the last two years
The number of aircraft involved was well off the last large-scale incursion, 39 Chinese aircraft on January 23, and since then, such fly-bys have been sporadic with far fewer aircraft
The ministry said the latest mission involved eight Chinese J-16 fighters and one Y-8 reconnaissance aircraft 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10547685/Taiwan-scrambles-fighter-planes-nine-Chinese-aircraft-enter-air-defence-zone.html
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 11:20:40 AM
Weak US....next invasion?...Taiwan.

Weak US?

Stop watching Tucker Fox News, the other hosts on Fox News not liking this Putin invasion. Tbh
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 11:23:17 AM
The Republicans also want to defend Taiwan. I guess you dont agree with them.

I always new something was kind off.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on February 24, 2022, 11:23:25 AM
Weak US....next invasion?...Taiwan.

Weak US?

Stop watching Tucker Fox News, the other hosts on Fox News not liking this Putin invasion. Tbh

Did you just watch the Mannequin in Chief?  Sanctions are useless, Brandon's bumble in Afghanistan set the tone.  He is impotent to stop anyone. China will do what it wants to now.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 11:32:38 AM
Weak US....next invasion?...Taiwan.

Weak US?

Stop watching Tucker Fox News, the other hosts on Fox News not liking this Putin invasion. Tbh

Did you just watch the Mannequin in Chief?  Sanctions are useless, Brandon's bumble in Afghanistan set the tone.  He is impotent to stop anyone. China will do what it wants to now.

Haha Afghanistan. (Good thing you brought it up. I am not finished talking about that place.)

The US taxpayers spent or on the hook for around 1 trillion dollars. (interest payments included in that estimate)

Just recently the EX PM of Afghanistan interview. He stated he got on the plain and did not know he was going to leave the country, but he then realized they were flying him out.
My question for him: Then why didn’t you tell them to turn around the plane and help defend your country. Because 300k Afghanistan soldiers (estimate) didnt fight back. (I mean if you see your Leader fly away then I guess they didnt feel they had to defend their country. I am guessing.) This might go down as the weakest Army. Sorry the US is not going to hold your hands.

So we spent 20 years in Afghanistan building schools, bridges, and roads. Meanwhile in the US schools are falling apart or they are in trailer modules, roads and bridges are falling apart.

Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 11:35:40 AM
It is a fact that many US schools are in modular trailers. Do you think that is a good way to learn? But is okay to throw money at Afghanistan.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on February 24, 2022, 11:42:13 AM
It is a fact that many US schools are in modular trailers. Do you think that is a good way to learn? But is okay to throw money at Afghanistan.

Afghanistan?  I would nuked that place years ago. ;D ;D >:D
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 11:43:06 AM
Weak US....next invasion?...Taiwan.

Weak US?

Stop watching Tucker Fox News, the other hosts on Fox News not liking this Putin invasion. Tbh

Did you just watch the Mannequin in Chief?  Sanctions are useless, Brandon's bumble in Afghanistan set the tone.  He is impotent to stop anyone. China will do what it wants to now.

Haha Afghanistan. (Good thing you brought it up. I am not finished talking about that place.)

The US taxpayers spent or on the hook for around 1 trillion dollars. (interest payments included in that estimate)

Just recently the EX PM of Afghanistan interview. He stated he got on the plain and did not know he was going to leave the country, but he then realized they were flying him out.
My question for him: Then why didn’t you tell them to turn around the plane and help defend your country. Because 300k Afghanistan soldiers (estimate) didnt fight back. (I mean if you see your Leader fly away then I guess they didnt feel they had to defend their country. I am guessing.) This might go down as the weakest Army. Sorry the US is not going to hold your hands.

So we spent 20 years in Afghanistan building schools, bridges, and roads. Meanwhile in the US schools are falling apart or they are in trailer modules, roads and bridges are falling apart.

Sometimes people should not say anything. Because after the EX PM gave that interview. It just strengthen many peoples argument that the PM did not stay around or fight for his country when his country was getting attacked. (He said by the time he was in the air he knew that they were in the air leaving the country.)
Please dont come with excuse. That they couldnt change their flight plan. I assume if you are a PM of a country. They can call or radio the airport and make an arrangement to land at the airport. (Just an assumption because I was never PM. But I think it is reasonable assumption)
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on February 24, 2022, 11:52:26 AM
Weakness begets weakness.  Russia, China, Iran and NKorea notice...

Lucas: Biden lacks Trump’s punch, and Putin knows it

That will teach Joe Biden to hug a thug.

Whatever you think of Donald Trump, he never would have allowed Vladimir Putin to run circles around him, which is what Putin has done to hapless Joe Biden.

And he certainly would not have appeased Putin and given the Russian president everything he asked for from the START treaty to greenlighting Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline, without getting something in return. All Biden got from Putin was grief.

Trump is a businessman and that is what businessmen do. They do not give things away without getting something in return.  He is also a bully who knows how to deal with other bullies.

The only thing bullies like Putin understand is a bloody nose, metaphorically speaking, but Biden has no punch. He is a veteran Washington politician who made a career of going along to get along. Trump demanded respect; Biden seeks to make nice.

Putin is a tough former KGB operative with blood on his hands. And unlike Biden and other Western leaders, Putin has a vision, and that vision is to force former Russian provinces like Ukraine back into the bosom of Mother Russia, whether they like it or not.

And Joe Biden has given Putin a window of opportunity to make that vision, or at least a part of it, a reality.

Biden, in his war on fossil fuel, early on shut down the Keystone XL pipeline and reversed Trump’s oil drilling policies. Yet, in a gift to Putin, Biden removed U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline that allowed it to be completed. This pipeline will bring additional energy into Germany, a NATO ally. He got nothing in return.

https://www.bostonherald.com/2022/02/24/lucas-biden-lacks-trumps-punch-and-putin-knows-it/
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 12:00:02 PM
Do you mean bending over for Putin? sheeesh

Weakness begets weakness.  Russia, China, Iran and NKorea notice...

Lucas: Biden lacks Trump’s punch, and Putin knows it

That will teach Joe Biden to hug a thug.

Whatever you think of Donald Trump, he never would have allowed Vladimir Putin to run circles around him, which is what Putin has done to hapless Joe Biden.

And he certainly would not have appeased Putin and given the Russian president everything he asked for from the START treaty to greenlighting Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline, without getting something in return. All Biden got from Putin was grief.

Trump is a businessman and that is what businessmen do. They do not give things away without getting something in return.  He is also a bully who knows how to deal with other bullies.

The only thing bullies like Putin understand is a bloody nose, metaphorically speaking, but Biden has no punch. He is a veteran Washington politician who made a career of going along to get along. Trump demanded respect; Biden seeks to make nice.

Putin is a tough former KGB operative with blood on his hands. And unlike Biden and other Western leaders, Putin has a vision, and that vision is to force former Russian provinces like Ukraine back into the bosom of Mother Russia, whether they like it or not.

And Joe Biden has given Putin a window of opportunity to make that vision, or at least a part of it, a reality.

Biden, in his war on fossil fuel, early on shut down the Keystone XL pipeline and reversed Trump’s oil drilling policies. Yet, in a gift to Putin, Biden removed U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline that allowed it to be completed. This pipeline will bring additional energy into Germany, a NATO ally. He got nothing in return.

https://www.bostonherald.com/2022/02/24/lucas-biden-lacks-trumps-punch-and-putin-knows-it/
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on February 24, 2022, 12:01:38 PM
Brandon sure did.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 12:06:52 PM
Brandon sure did.

Nope Trump let Putin go into Syria. Trump removed the US base in Syria.
Also, when it came election time. Putin said nothing about Hunter Biden in the press when he could of to reporters. haha
It just shows, that he just used him. (allegedly for legal purposes) haha
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on February 24, 2022, 12:13:41 PM
Ahhh... so Syria is the culprit?  Even though Syria has always been a client state of the Russians?...nice plate of pretzel logic...Well...What about Obama letting Putin into Crimea where he is now launching his invasion of the rest of the Ukraine...that seems to be a bit more geographically significant don't you think?
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 12:20:42 PM
Ahhh... so Syria is the culprit?  Even though Syria has always been a client state of the Russians?...nice plate of pretzel logic...Well...What about Obama letting Putin into Crimea where he is now launching his invasion of the rest of the Ukraine...that seems to be a bit more geographically significant don't you think?

Sorry bro. Trump listened to Russia and Syria. So the US base in Syria dismantled.

Haha. You dont have to be a smart guy like me to figure out. That Russia troops surrounded Ukraine basically all sides to attack. (It was not to catch illegals going into Russia haha)  They did not not need Crime Mia.

The position of troops were in attack formation with mobile hospitals. (or some people mentioned temporary mobile supply depots that were at the border idk)
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on February 24, 2022, 12:24:18 PM
So did the Ruskeis launch the invasion from their new bases in Syria?  Putin is so devious! ;D ;D >:D


'No one expected sanctions to prevent anything': Biden's baffling response after freezing all Kremlin assets in America, targeting four more banks

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10547459/Biden-holds-emergency-Situation-Room-meeting-meets-G7.html
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 12:27:47 PM
So did the Ruskeis launch the invasion from their new bases in Syria?  Putin is so devious! ;D ;D >:D


No one said that. You just made that up. (Sheeesh)
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 12:31:57 PM
I guess this guy didnt see be satellite photos from the news, many people posting video and images of russian buildup on social media.
or maybe he did not believe the build up or he believed /thought it was just an exercise. haha idk
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 12:35:54 PM
So did the Ruskeis launch the invasion from their new bases in Syria?  Putin is so devious! ;D ;D >:D


No one said that. You just made that up. (Sheeesh)

Did they use Crime Mia? Sure
But they could of attacked from anywhere according to the news analysts and experts.
I believed they also sent troops from BellyRuse. haha
They just drove by the ukraine check point easily.
(They are fighting like a third world country. haha jk It is not a fair fight.)

I might joke around, but it is really sad that Ukraine was attacked for no apparent reason.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on February 24, 2022, 12:36:00 PM
Good thing Obama gave Putin Crimea...he didn't have to fly troops in from Syria...thats so far...they'd be too tired to fight. ;D ;D >:D

Security camera footage shows Russian military vehicles crossing into Ukraine from Russian-annexed Crimea

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/security-camera-footage-shows-russian-military-vehicles-crossing-83079405
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 12:42:20 PM
They also came from BellyRuse. Also, surrounded all sides of Ukraine. haha

Good thing Obama gave Putin Crimea...he didn't have to fly troops in from Syria...thats so far...they'd be too tired to fight. ;D ;D >:D

Security camera footage shows Russian military vehicles crossing into Ukraine from Russian-annexed Crimea

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/security-camera-footage-shows-russian-military-vehicles-crossing-83079405
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 12:44:24 PM
Btw: The news are saying Russian invasion from all sides.
Wow I am smart and correct. Again


Good thing Obama gave Putin Crimea...he didn't have to fly troops in from Syria...thats so far...they'd be too tired to fight. ;D ;D >:D

Security camera footage shows Russian military vehicles crossing into Ukraine from Russian-annexed Crimea

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/security-camera-footage-shows-russian-military-vehicles-crossing-83079405
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on February 24, 2022, 12:46:43 PM
Btw: The news are saying Russian invasion from all sides.
Wow I am smart and correct. Again


Good thing Obama gave Putin Crimea...he didn't have to fly troops in from Syria...thats so far...they'd be too tired to fight. ;D ;D >:D

Security camera footage shows Russian military vehicles crossing into Ukraine from Russian-annexed Crimea

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/security-camera-footage-shows-russian-military-vehicles-crossing-83079405

Wait...what about Syria?  You are the one who brought it up...
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 12:48:10 PM
Wow I am right about Ukraine
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 12:49:50 PM
So during Trump. The US closed a base in Syria that was fighting iceSuS

Lets change the subject. Because I am right 200% all the time
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on February 24, 2022, 12:55:05 PM
So during Trump. The US closed a base in Syria that was fighting iceSuS

Lets change the subject. Because I am right 200% all the time


...and your twisted logic to todays invasion of Ukraine?....
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 12:57:06 PM
So during Trump. The US closed a base in Syria that was fighting iceSuS

Lets change the subject. Because I am right 200% all the time


...and your twisted logic to todays invasion of Ukraine?....

Twisted logic? You said they just needed Crime Mia to attack.
I said they surrounded Ukraine all sides. (Right now they are attacking amphibious assault in Oddessa as I type)

Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 12:57:30 PM
Russia is there for war not to take pictures. tbh
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on February 24, 2022, 01:02:55 PM
So during Trump. The US closed a base in Syria that was fighting iceSuS

Lets change the subject. Because I am right 200% all the time


...and your twisted logic to todays invasion of Ukraine?....

Twisted logic. You said they just needed Crime Mia to attack.
I said they surrounded Ukraine all sides. (Right now they are attacking amphibious assault as I type)

So you think Trump leaving Syria is more influential to Putin than Obama giving him part of the very country he is invading today and using that very country to stage a significant part of his invasion force?  You would be fun to play Stratego with...it would be a quick victory.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 01:08:10 PM
So during Trump. The US closed a base in Syria that was fighting iceSuS

Lets change the subject. Because I am right 200% all the time


...and your twisted logic to todays invasion of Ukraine?....

Twisted logic. You said they just needed Crime Mia to attack.
I said they surrounded Ukraine all sides. (Right now they are attacking amphibious assault as I type)

So you think Trump leaving Syria is more influential to Putin than Obama giving him part of the very country he is invading today and using that very country to stage a significant part of his invasion force?  You would be fun to play Stratego with...it would be a quick victory.

So now you admit Trump closed the base in Russia.
I would say so. Because at the time the US was fighting IceSUS (for sus lol)

Your CrimeArea logic is weak and really flawed. Because Russia is attacking from all sides. (They even attacking through the sea.)
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 01:11:35 PM
Someone tell this guy to turn on the news or something.
Man

This guy wants to debate me about Ukraine. But dont know what is going on.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 01:12:50 PM
Someone tell this guy to turn on the news or something.
Man

This guy wants to debate me about Ukraine. But dont know what is going on.

There is free news on youtube and other social media sites. (For the cord cutters) hehe
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on February 24, 2022, 01:23:47 PM
So during Trump. The US closed a base in Syria that was fighting iceSuS

Lets change the subject. Because I am right 200% all the time


...and your twisted logic to todays invasion of Ukraine?....

Twisted logic. You said they just needed Crime Mia to attack.
I said they surrounded Ukraine all sides. (Right now they are attacking amphibious assault as I type)

So you think Trump leaving Syria is more influential to Putin than Obama giving him part of the very country he is invading today and using that very country to stage a significant part of his invasion force?  You would be fun to play Stratego with...it would be a quick victory.

So now you admit Trump closed the base in Russia.
I would say so. Because at the time the US was fighting IceSUS (for sus lol)

Your CrimeArea logic is weak and really flawed. Because Russia is attacking from all sides. (They even attacking through the sea.)


So now you think We had a base in Russia?...you have been watching too much MSNBC.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 01:30:35 PM
I never said we had a base in Russia.

Man someone help this guy.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 01:33:48 PM
I love it. When you are smart you are smart. You dont have to make things up. My parents raised me the correct way.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 01:35:48 PM
When a person make things up. I was taught it shows their true character.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on February 24, 2022, 01:54:52 PM
I never said we had a base in Russia.

Man someone help this guy.

Do you even read what you write before you hit post?



So now you admit Trump closed the base in Russia.


Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 01:58:18 PM
I never said we had a base in Russia.

Man someone help this guy.

Do you even read what you write before you hit post?



So now you admit Trump closed the base in Russia.



Of course you accused of saying that I said that we have a base in Russia. That I watch too much mnsbc.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 01:59:37 PM
Again before you make lies about me. I would probably think twice.

Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on February 24, 2022, 02:08:14 PM
…sure I mocked you after your post about the base in Russia. I do enjoy our little talks. ;D ;D >:D
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 02:13:18 PM
…sure I mocked you after your post about the base in Russia. I do enjoy our little talks. ;D ;D >:D

Again another lie. I hope this website is an llc or incorporated.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on February 24, 2022, 02:39:04 PM
…sure I mocked you after your post about the base in Russia. I do enjoy our little talks. ;D ;D >:D

Again another lie. I hope this website is an llc or incorporated.

What part is a lie? You did say Trump closed our Russian base , right?  I pulled your post quote directly.  I just thought it was funny you thought so.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 24, 2022, 03:21:38 PM
…sure I mocked you after your post about the base in Russia. I do enjoy our little talks. ;D ;D >:D

Again another lie. I hope this website is an llc or incorporated.

What part is a lie? You did say Trump closed our Russian base , right?  I pulled your post quote directly.  I just thought it was funny you thought so.
Did I? I said the US closed the base in Syria.
We do not have access to the communications. But I believe a lot of people said because it was a favor for Putin and Russia. and possibly Syria (allegedly, maybe potentially. Which can me maybe it is true)

Assumption does not mean it is fact, but it means guessing.
There is no other reason why he would close that US base in Syria. That base was really strategically placed because the US forcers were fighting Isus and its close to EyeRan.


Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on February 24, 2022, 07:45:59 PM
Well you did say a base in Russia but who cares? What does that have to do Ukraine anyway?
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on February 24, 2022, 09:16:28 PM
Weakness begets weakness…

Here We Go: China Eyes Taiwan

Just hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full invasion into Ukraine, the Chinese Communist Party is pumping out propaganda about Taiwan. For decades, China has claimed Taiwan as Chinese territory, despite it being a sovereign country.

Taiwan is "not Ukraine" and has always been an inalienable part of China, China's foreign ministry said on Wednesday, as Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen called for the island to beef up vigilance on military activities in response to the crisis.

The comments come after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson flagged the risk for Taiwan in a warning last week about the damaging worldwide consequences if Western nations failed to fulfil their promises to support Ukraine's independence.

China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, has stepped up military activity near the self-governing island over the past two years, though Taiwan has reported no recent unusual manoeuvres by Chinese forces as tension over Ukraine has spiked.

Speaking in Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying dismissed any link between the issues of Ukraine and Taiwan.

"Taiwan is not Ukraine," she said. "Taiwan has always been an inalienable part of China. This is an indisputable legal and historical fact."

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-says-must-raise-alertness-over-ukraine-crisis-2022-02-23/

Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Wink01 on February 25, 2022, 12:58:08 AM
Just hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full invasion into Ukraine, the Chinese Communist Party is pumping out propaganda about Taiwan. For decades, China has claimed Taiwan as Chinese territory, despite it being a sovereign country.

Taiwan is "not Ukraine" and has always been an inalienable part of China, China's foreign ministry said on Wednesday, as Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen called for the island to beef up vigilance on military activities in response to the crisis.

The comments come after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson flagged the risk for Taiwan in a warning last week about the damaging worldwide consequences if Western nations failed to fulfil their promises to support Ukraine's independence.

China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, has stepped up military activity near the self-governing island over the past two years, though Taiwan has reported no recent unusual manoeuvres by Chinese forces as tension over Ukraine has spiked.

Speaking in Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying dismissed any link between the issues of Ukraine and Taiwan.

"Taiwan is not Ukraine," she said. "Taiwan has always been an inalienable part of China. This is an indisputable legal and historical fact."

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-says-must-raise-alertness-over-ukraine-crisis-2022-02-23/geometry dash (https://geometrydash-full.com/)
Title: Kyiv under attack, I dont believe the news about peace talks
Post by: eyephone on February 25, 2022, 12:50:35 PM
So apparently people on twitter (like independent journalists/vloggers) are reporting big explosions in Kyiv that includes video.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 25, 2022, 12:59:35 PM
I guess it maybe fake news about peace talks because Ukraine is under siege as I type.

* I have no conflict of interests and not afraid to tell the truth.

Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on February 25, 2022, 01:20:58 PM
I woke up and saw that China said Russia open for dialogue. Market went up.

But the real news that should have been reported. Russia bombing and fighting Ukraine.

I was shook when I saw a video of ex Ukraine President with the Ukraine Troops holding an AK-47 vowing to fight for Ukraine. (Amazing, Sheeesh)
Title: Re: Kyiv under attack, I dont believe the news about peace talks
Post by: eyephone on February 25, 2022, 02:48:53 PM
So apparently people on twitter (like independent journalists/vloggers) are reporting big explosions in Kyiv that includes video.

Marco Rubio just tweeted:

Multiple indications that the largest assault yet on #Kyiv has begun

#Ukraine will fight without retreat

Historic acts of patriotic bravery are occurring right now


My comment: Well I said this about at 12:50 pm pst regarding the fighting in Kyiv.
Title: Re: Kyiv under attack, I dont believe the news about peace talks
Post by: Irvinehomeseeker on February 25, 2022, 04:40:42 PM
So apparently people on twitter (like independent journalists/vloggers) are reporting big explosions in Kyiv that includes video.

Marco Rubio just tweeted:

Multiple indications that the largest assault yet on #Kyiv has begun

#Ukraine will fight without retreat

Historic acts of patriotic bravery are occurring right now


My comment: Well I said this about at 12:50 pm pst regarding the fighting in Kyiv.

And CNN says Stocks are up because Russia is open to Peace talks!
Title: Re: Kyiv under attack, I dont believe the news about peace talks
Post by: eyephone on February 25, 2022, 05:21:33 PM
So apparently people on twitter (like independent journalists/vloggers) are reporting big explosions in Kyiv that includes video.

Marco Rubio just tweeted:

Multiple indications that the largest assault yet on #Kyiv has begun

#Ukraine will fight without retreat

Historic acts of patriotic bravery are occurring right now


My comment: Well I said this about at 12:50 pm pst regarding the fighting in Kyiv.

And CNN says Stocks are up because Russia is open to Peace talks!

Not just CNN other news outlets said this also. Because China said that Russia might be open to talks. Then the market just sky rocketed.
China also made a statement defending Russia’s action and blames the US. (Say what?) Then China’s bank restricts lending to Russia. [a big mix message]
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: nosuchreality on February 25, 2022, 05:26:04 PM
Peoples shopping carts will still be full of stuff made in China weekend.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Compressed-Village on February 26, 2022, 08:09:30 AM
Very sad for Ukraine and their people.

I want to unite for freedom and justice. Pootin, need to pay a very heavy price for a needless crisis.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: eyephone on March 01, 2022, 12:36:31 PM
The funny thing Russia and news analysts thought they would control Ukraine in one day.

Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 01, 2022, 01:14:22 PM
War is stupid.

What is this for? People dying for what? And even more so, what impetus or idealism are the Russian soldiers fighting for? The chance to kill innocent civilians?

Putin isn't a genius (as Trump put it)... he's an idiot.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Compressed-Village on March 11, 2022, 10:22:25 AM
Biden just said NATO and Soviet hot war will result in WWIII. Now this is scary shit.

The last time Biden warn of Soviet staging attack of Ukrainian after Olympic all came true.
This time he warn Putin to use chemical and biological in Ukrain.

Start build your bunker now.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 11, 2022, 11:41:32 AM
I'd like to hear from one TI member who supports Russia on this stupidity.

Tell me something to help me understand the other side.

Maybe morekaos?
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on March 11, 2022, 11:48:25 AM
I'd like to hear from one TI member who supports Russia on this stupidity.

Tell me something to help me understand the other side.

Maybe morekaos?

Putin is going to roll over Ukraine eventually and six months from now we will be focused on something else.  Probably the Winter blend of covid, or the ongoing inflation or the deep recession or the election...whatever.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 11, 2022, 12:05:53 PM
@morekaos:

So you support Putin's invasion of Ukraine?

Despite how many innocents are killed?

Now I am beginning to understand you more.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on March 11, 2022, 12:19:35 PM
@morekaos:

So you support Putin's invasion of Ukraine?

Despite how many innocents are killed?

Now I am beginning to understand you more.

Where did I say I supported it?  Is this Eye?  You asked what I thought I  told you he will probably eventually win...and the world will move on, just like Covid (until the winter breakout) when they will resurrect Faucci (what happened to that guy?)
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 11, 2022, 12:28:00 PM
Please read better... what was my original question?
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on March 11, 2022, 12:36:13 PM
Please read better... what was my original question?

Just telling you what is going to happen without taking any sides. 
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 11, 2022, 12:45:40 PM
Please read better... what was my original question?

Just telling you what is going to happen without taking any sides. 

But that wasn't my question, was it? Do you support the Putin invasion of Ukraine?

You throw it aside like some news cycle so that makes it sound like you have little regard for the people of Ukraine.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on March 12, 2022, 08:15:24 AM
Wars go on constantly, every day, every year. We aren’t incumbent to take sides on any of them. I always root for the underdog but let’s be honest…they are eventually going to lose and there is little our government will do to stop that. It will be swept away, like Covid, by the news cycle.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: BlackKnight on March 12, 2022, 09:16:59 AM
Wars go on constantly, every day, every year. We aren’t incumbent to take sides on any of them. I always root for the underdog but let’s be honest…they are eventually going to lose and there is little our government will do to stop that. It will be swept away, like Covid, by the news cycle.

morekaos, GO F…CK YOURSELF
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: akula1488 on March 12, 2022, 11:18:32 AM
MoreKaos sounds cold hearted but a lot of Americans only care about themselves so it is not a shocker.

But realistically, what we can do to help? Donate to Ukraine? Write letters to your representative demanding for more action, boycotting Russian imports?
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on March 12, 2022, 06:37:40 PM
Wars go on constantly, every day, every year. We aren’t incumbent to take sides on any of them. I always root for the underdog but let’s be honest…they are eventually going to lose and there is little our government will do to stop that. It will be swept away, like Covid, by the news cycle.

morekaos, GO F…CK YOURSELF

Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: AW on March 13, 2022, 12:36:24 PM
MoreKaos sounds cold hearted but a lot of Americans only care about themselves so it is not a shocker.


It’s true, everyone is selfish to some degree, but if there’s a scale of selfishness, his would be like his political stance, far right
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on March 14, 2022, 11:08:35 AM
As I have noted before...China is going through something similar to Japans collapse in the 90's. 

Meanwhile In China, All Hell Is Breaking Loose

1.  China on brink of biggest Covid-19 crisis since Wuhan as cases surge
2. Chinese stocks are crashing
3. Chinese bonds are crashing
4. China's property sector is (still) crashing
5. China Credit Collapses
6. Didi crashes
7. ESG blues
8. China Doubles Yuan Trading Band for Ruble
9. Foreigners dump Chinese bonds in record amounts
10. GDP on verge of contraction

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/meanwhile-china-all-hell-breaking-loose

Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 14, 2022, 03:31:04 PM
Wars go on constantly, every day, every year. We aren’t incumbent to take sides on any of them. I always root for the underdog but let’s be honest…they are eventually going to lose and there is little our government will do to stop that. It will be swept away, like Covid, by the news cycle.

Thanks for the worthless response.

Why take a stand in politics, environment, Covid, energy, oil etc and ignore war?

You can't care so much for the funny things Joe Biden says or point out snowflakes or disinform about effectiveness of masks and vaccines and then say you can't take sides when it comes to war.

I'm not asking you to tell me who you think will win... I'm asking if you agree with the reasons why Putin is invading Ukraine?

This isn't war... as I've said, that would imply 2 sides having a conflict... this is bully ball.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on March 14, 2022, 04:03:07 PM
Weakness begets weakness. All those other topics have fed into why this war came about. Feckless, foolish and ideologic policies has opened the door to exploitation, war and economic pain.  Who supports a war? I certainly do not support it but all those other topics have contributed to why we find ourselves in the current situation and why the cycle will soon swing the pendulum the other way and rectify the mistake.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 14, 2022, 05:15:11 PM
morenothing
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on March 14, 2022, 05:53:04 PM
Just your answer…

Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: akula1488 on March 14, 2022, 08:04:38 PM
No one with any morals would support a war and Putin is an evil mad man. With that said, US does provide an opening for people like him to take advantage of; from the disastrous military withdrawal in Afghanistan to promoting gender equality in our military; The inflation has been running hot and with Russia's vast resources in natural gas and oil, Putin is testing our resolve for even higher inflation.
Let's put this way, if gas hits $10 per gallon, how many Americans will want the war to stop with Ukraine surrendering much of its sovereignty?
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Kenkoko on March 15, 2022, 12:54:35 AM
No one with any morals would support a war and Putin is an evil mad man. With that said, US does provide an opening for people like him to take advantage of; from the disastrous military withdrawal in Afghanistan to promoting gender equality in our military; The inflation has been running hot and with Russia's vast resources in natural gas and oil, Putin is testing our resolve for even higher inflation.
Let's put this way, if gas hits $10 per gallon, how many Americans will want the war to stop with Ukraine surrendering much of its sovereignty?

I think it's crazy that gender equality in our military gets talked about like a top issue.

Not the fact that the Pentagon failed every audit ever conducted, while our military budget has grown more than 2x from 320 billion in 2000 to 778 billion in 2020.

Nobody seems to even question why we spend more on our military than the next nine highest spending countries combined.

Don't think it'll even get to $10. By maybe $8, we'll sign up for WW3.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 15, 2022, 12:35:15 PM
Where were all these anti-war voices when the US invaded Iraq?  1,000,000 Iraqi's died and nobody cares.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on March 15, 2022, 12:44:24 PM
Where were all these anti-war voices when the US invaded Iraq?  1,000,000 Iraqi's died and nobody cares.

The same place the #bringbackourgirls are or the #neveragain crowd...nowhere.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Kenkoko on March 15, 2022, 01:41:31 PM
Where were all these anti-war voices when the US invaded Iraq?  1,000,000 Iraqi's died and nobody cares.

Saying nobody cares isn't very accurate. It was always a polarizing issue with huge partisan divide.

Maybe at the start of the war, you could stretch a bit and claim that nobody cared.

In 2003, 89% Republicans and 53% Democrats said using military force was the right decision.

But it quickly became very unpopular among Dems. Less than a year in, the Dem support already dropped to 30s. The R support remained high, even in 2018, 61%% of Republicans still believed it was the right choice.(vs 27% Dem support)

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/03/19/iraq-war-continues-to-divide-u-s-public-15-years-after-it-began/
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 15, 2022, 02:33:12 PM
Where were all these anti-war voices when the US invaded Iraq?  1,000,000 Iraqi's died and nobody cares.

Were you against it after what happened? Or did you forget already?

So does that mean you support the Putin invasion of Ukraine?
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 16, 2022, 10:31:08 AM
Where were all these anti-war voices when the US invaded Iraq?  1,000,000 Iraqi's died and nobody cares.

Were you against it after what happened? Or did you forget already?

So does that mean you support the Putin invasion of Ukraine?

I'm sorry, what are you asking?
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 16, 2022, 11:25:07 AM
Where were all these anti-war voices when the US invaded Iraq?  1,000,000 Iraqi's died and nobody cares.

Were you against it after what happened? Or did you forget already?

So does that mean you support the Putin invasion of Ukraine?

I'm sorry, what are you asking?


Reading comprehension issues like morekaos?

Question is in plain English.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: akula1488 on March 16, 2022, 11:47:05 AM
What's your infatuation on taking sides? The world is not black and white.

Where were all these anti-war voices when the US invaded Iraq?  1,000,000 Iraqi's died and nobody cares.

Were you against it after what happened? Or did you forget already?

So does that mean you support the Putin invasion of Ukraine?

I'm sorry, what are you asking?


Reading comprehension issues like morekaos?

Question is in plain English.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 16, 2022, 02:50:15 PM
Where were all these anti-war voices when the US invaded Iraq?  1,000,000 Iraqi's died and nobody cares.

Were you against it after what happened? Or did you forget already?

So does that mean you support the Putin invasion of Ukraine?

I'm sorry, what are you asking?


Reading comprehension issues like morekaos?

Question is in plain English.

IHO - This is beneath you, more on par with what I expect from eyephone.  I'm sure the dying & dead in Ukraine and Iraq could care less about our pissing matches.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 16, 2022, 09:58:30 PM
Where were all these anti-war voices when the US invaded Iraq?  1,000,000 Iraqi's died and nobody cares.

Were you against it after what happened? Or did you forget already?

So does that mean you support the Putin invasion of Ukraine?

I'm sorry, what are you asking?


Reading comprehension issues like morekaos?

Question is in plain English.

IHO - This is beneath you, more on par with what I expect from eyephone.  I'm sure the dying & dead in Ukraine and Iraq could care less about our pissing matches.

Then stop posing and answer the question. Back your accusations up.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: akula1488 on March 16, 2022, 11:51:25 PM
@iho
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-s-daniil-medvedev-faces-wimbledon-ban-unless-he-distances-himself-from-putin-9h6hfxxrm#Echobox=1647433871

You can see the parallel/similarity as vaccine mandate...it is still about forcing a mainstream narrative and then control and obedience.

Vaccine mandate for healthy young people never makes sense, now we are forcing ordinary citizens to disavow Putin to make a living?

I am on Ukraine's side 100% but the media has gone overboard with a lot of misinformation (for COVID the media misinformation is how effective and safe the vaccines were and for this war is how innocent Ukrainians are and how evil Russia/Putin is).
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 17, 2022, 10:48:05 AM
Where were all these anti-war voices when the US invaded Iraq?  1,000,000 Iraqi's died and nobody cares.

Were you against it after what happened? Or did you forget already?

So does that mean you support the Putin invasion of Ukraine?

I'm sorry, what are you asking?


Reading comprehension issues like morekaos?

Question is in plain English.

IHO - This is beneath you, more on par with what I expect from eyephone.  I'm sure the dying & dead in Ukraine and Iraq could care less about our pissing matches.

Then stop posing and answer the question. Back your accusations up.

I was against the Iraq war from the very beginning.  Some of my historical posts on TI validate this fact.  Feel free to search them if you have the time.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 17, 2022, 03:08:19 PM
I was against the Iraq war from the very beginning.  Some of my historical posts on TI validate this fact.  Feel free to search them if you have the time.

Hard to validate this since the Iraq War started in 2003... well before the IHB.

It's always easy enough to say you were against in when there is no evidence to prove it. And since you have a pattern of revisionist history, we'll just have to leave it at that.

I think there are differences between the US/Iraq War and what Putin is doing now so you can't use such a broad stroke to compare the two.

So does this mean you are against the Putin invasion?
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 18, 2022, 11:05:38 AM
I was against the Iraq war from the very beginning.  Some of my historical posts on TI validate this fact.  Feel free to search them if you have the time.

Hard to validate this since the Iraq War started in 2003... well before the IHB.

It's always easy enough to say you were against in when there is no evidence to prove it. And since you have a pattern of revisionist history, we'll just have to leave it at that.

I think there are differences between the US/Iraq War and what Putin is doing now so you can't use such a broad stroke to compare the two.

So does this mean you are against the Putin invasion?

The truth is you were duped into supporting the Iraq war.  You now realize how dumb it was and you are attempting to deflect.  Why should we trust your judgement on Putin or anything else if you were duped on Iraq?  This applies not only to you, but John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and all the other establishment tools.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 18, 2022, 01:41:20 PM
I was against the Iraq war from the very beginning.  Some of my historical posts on TI validate this fact.  Feel free to search them if you have the time.

Hard to validate this since the Iraq War started in 2003... well before the IHB.

It's always easy enough to say you were against in when there is no evidence to prove it. And since you have a pattern of revisionist history, we'll just have to leave it at that.

I think there are differences between the US/Iraq War and what Putin is doing now so you can't use such a broad stroke to compare the two.

So does this mean you are against the Putin invasion?

The truth is you were duped into supporting the Iraq war.  You now realize how dumb it was and you are attempting to deflect.  Why should we trust your judgement on Putin or anything else if you were duped on Iraq?  This applies not only to you, but John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and all the other establishment tools.

Still haven't answered the question.

As much you want to muddy this with whatever political ideology you subscribe to, you should know by now that politics is not a motivator for me.

I'm not asking anyone to trust my judgement although it seems validation is very important to **you**, I'm just expressing my opinion on what I think is unnecessary course of action by a world leader on people who do not deserve this. Could this have applied to the US for past actions, sure but isn't that the point? We know better now.

So again, do you support Putin's invasion?

And for anyone interested in providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine, you can donate directly to the Ukraine bank:

https://bank.gov.ua/en/about/humanitarian-aid-to-ukraine

There is also a link to donate to their military but my preference is to help the civilians who are affected by all this.
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 23, 2022, 10:02:03 AM
Well liquidity just got even worse...

Evergrande Investors Left Baffled by $2.1 Billion in Seized Cash

Investors in China Evergrande Group are still in the dark over just how $2.1 billion of deposits at its property-services unit came to be used as security for pledge guarantees and seized by banks.

In a call with investors late Tuesday, the developer’s officials reiterated comments from earlier filings that they were investigating the matter without sharing fresh details, according to people who attended and asked not to be identified. The third-party pledge guarantee wipes out most of Evergrande Property Services Group Ltd.’s cash holdings.

“It’s peculiar because investors expect Evergrande management should be aware of where the cash went rather than instead setting up an investigation committee to find out,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Andrew Chan.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evergrande-investors-left-baffled-2-040419913.html
Title: Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
Post by: morekaos on May 10, 2022, 10:24:53 AM
The question of this thread is a discussion of whether a global crisis is coming and what events today may cause it….not how to protect your portfolio during a sell off. If you want to discuss that, start a thread. This one is currently exploring the possibility that an asset bubble in China may be the focus of that possibility.  Most recessions begin with an asset bubble popping.

Keep your eye on the ball...China is collapsing...

Wall Street takes a battering as fears over China's economy mount: S&P 500 plummets to lowest close in over a year while Dow Jones plunges 600 points as markets tumble worldwide
 China's continued Covid lockdown policy continues to snarl supply chains
 The rise of interest rates has played havoc on the markets
 The S&P 500 lost 3.2 percent and the Nasdaq dropped 4.3 percent
 Dow Jones ticked down 2 percentage points
Everything from crude oil to bitcoin took a beating on the market on Monday

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10798929/Wall-Street-takes-battering-fears-Chinas-economy-mount.html
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