Housing Analysis
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irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Kenkoko said:
Hah... to be fair, you are very strong minded in your own opinions and ideologies.
#AIRULES
irvinehomeowner said:Hah... to be fair, you are very strong minded in your own opinions and ideologies.
#AIRULES
I will admit I am very opinionated and not easily swayed. It gets worse as I've gotten older as my wife likes to point out all the time.
I do not think I am very ideological tho. I've voted republican/democrat and even 3rd party.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:Such a sensationalist. You had already admitted that Irvine declined slower and recovered faster... remember... you blamed it on the FCBs, are you going back on that now? And when it started and bottomed out is not the main measurement of stability/recovery, it's the percentage drop (which was already compared) and how long it gets back to last peak pricing (or within $560
Ah, so if you have a wrong position, you have to hold to it no matter what? Even if there is an avalanche of data to the contrary?
Even the Redfin link you posted shows Irvine bottomed in Feb 2012. The Redfin median is a 3-month median (which I've pointed out to you before), so all we can derive from it is that Irvine bottomed sometime in the three months between Dec 2011 and Feb 2012, which aligns with Larry's chart.
So now we should agree that FCB's helped Irvine's prices from falling quite as far, but Irvine did not start declining later than the rest of OC, nor did it bottom more quickly.
irvinehomeowner said:
You have used median data extensively on this forum. The only time you criticize it is when it shows something you don't like (confirmation bias). I've never disputed that Irvine dropped less than OC during that cycle, so why argue it again? The more interesting question is why is Irvine dropping harder than the rest of OC this time?
irvinehomeowner said:
Yes, I noticed that, but my claim was not unsubstantiated. It was based on Trulia's data. So at best we have conflicting data. I don't know how either source, OCHN or Trulia, compiles these stats. It could be MLS rental listings. It could be surveys of large complexes. So for now, we have to say rents may be increasing or decreasing, but we don't have a consensus.
irvinehomeowner said:
Irvine has an $80 ownership premium. OC has a $134 ownership discount. So what is your point here?
irvinehomeowner said:
I agree that data isn't fool proof, but it's less foolish than anecdotal evidence (your preferred way of spinning a narrative). I also didn't say Irvine was bottoming. This is just the first year of what will likely be a multi-year downturn (just my opinion based on historical RE cycles).
Redfin is the only data source, among many, that shows a YoY increase for August. If you look at May, June, or July they show Irvine declined, but congrats on this one month of positive data. You have embraced Redfin, but openly criticized all other data sources that contradict your ingrained biases. What are you going to do when Redfin goes back to showing YoY declines again?
irvinehomeowner said:Oh and by the way:
Liar Loan said:
So the top wasn't July 2018, it was December 2018? Which month is it? You keep changing your statement. Redfin says April 2019 at $882k was peak.
And being in the mortgage business, you should know that it's a spring to summer season and then end of year season. September is too late, people aren't buying any more. It's seasonal.
Pinpointing the exact top depends on the data source used, yet they ALL agree that Irvine has peaked. As explained before, with Redfin's 3-month median, the top could be anywhere between Feb-Apr 2019, not very far off from Larry's one month median showing Dec 2018. If you look at Redfin's $/Sq Ft, it shows prices peaked in May 2018 and are currently down 2.2% since then.
My prior post showing that prices declined during the hottest selling season of the year shows why this isn't seasonal. Prices are supposed to increase from December to September, not decline by 2.3%.
Bottom line: Irvine is in for a world of pain. (Just look at Compressed Village sweating bullets.)
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Too tired to point out the continuing contradictions in your posts. While you admitted the drop was less, you totally sidestepped that Irvine recovered quicker.
Everyone else can look at the "data" you posted and make their own conclusions on whether or not Irvine has better stability/recovery than OC. You keeps trying to deflect between the 90s crash, the last crash and this current "crash" or whatever data points suits your narrative but yet are accusing me of bias.
Bottom line: Whatever pain Irvine is in for, surrounding cities will do worse. (Good thing you sold that IE property... maybe you should sell all your his non-Irvine ones!)
Everyone else can look at the "data" you posted and make their own conclusions on whether or not Irvine has better stability/recovery than OC. You keeps trying to deflect between the 90s crash, the last crash and this current "crash" or whatever data points suits your narrative but yet are accusing me of bias.
Bottom line: Whatever pain Irvine is in for, surrounding cities will do worse. (Good thing you sold that IE property... maybe you should sell all your his non-Irvine ones!)
Great ROI in Moreno Valley!
https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2019/09/25/moreno-valley-bullying-attack-diego-dies/
https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2019/09/25/moreno-valley-bullying-attack-diego-dies/
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Liar Loan said:irvinehomeowner said:Such a sensationalist. You had already admitted that Irvine declined slower and recovered faster... remember... you blamed it on the FCBs, are you going back on that now? And when it started and bottomed out is not the main measurement of stability/recovery, it's the percentage drop (which was already compared) and how long it gets back to last peak pricing (or within $560
Ah, so if you have a wrong position, you have to hold to it no matter what? Even if there is an avalanche of data to the contrary?
Even the Redfin link you posted shows Irvine bottomed in Feb 2012. The Redfin median is a 3-month median (which I've pointed out to you before), so all we can derive from it is that Irvine bottomed sometime in the three months between Dec 2011 and Feb 2012, which aligns with Larry's chart.
So now we should agree that FCB's helped Irvine's prices from falling quite as far, but Irvine did not start declining later than the rest of OC, nor did it bottom more quickly.
irvinehomeowner said:
You have used median data extensively on this forum. The only time you criticize it is when it shows something you don't like (confirmation bias). I've never disputed that Irvine dropped less than OC during that cycle, so why argue it again? The more interesting question is why is Irvine dropping harder than the rest of OC this time?
irvinehomeowner said:
Yes, I noticed that, but my claim was not unsubstantiated. It was based on Trulia's data. So at best we have conflicting data. I don't know how either source, OCHN or Trulia, compiles these stats. It could be MLS rental listings. It could be surveys of large complexes. So for now, we have to say rents may be increasing or decreasing, but we don't have a consensus.
irvinehomeowner said:
Irvine has an $80 ownership premium. OC has a $134 ownership discount. So what is your point here?
irvinehomeowner said:
I agree that data isn't fool proof, but it's less foolish than anecdotal evidence (your preferred way of spinning a narrative). I also didn't say Irvine was bottoming. This is just the first year of what will likely be a multi-year downturn (just my opinion based on historical RE cycles).
Redfin is the only data source, among many, that shows a YoY increase for August. If you look at May, June, or July they show Irvine declined, but congrats on this one month of positive data. You have embraced Redfin, but openly criticized all other data sources that contradict your ingrained biases. What are you going to do when Redfin goes back to showing YoY declines again?
irvinehomeowner said:Oh and by the way:
Liar Loan said:
So the top wasn't July 2018, it was December 2018? Which month is it? You keep changing your statement. Redfin says April 2019 at $882k was peak.
And being in the mortgage business, you should know that it's a spring to summer season and then end of year season. September is too late, people aren't buying any more. It's seasonal.
Pinpointing the exact top depends on the data source used, yet they ALL agree that Irvine has peaked. As explained before, with Redfin's 3-month median, the top could be anywhere between Feb-Apr 2019, not very far off from Larry's one month median showing Dec 2018. If you look at Redfin's $/Sq Ft, it shows prices peaked in May 2018 and are currently down 2.2% since then.
My prior post showing that prices declined during the hottest selling season of the year shows why this isn't seasonal. Prices are supposed to increase from December to September, not decline by 2.3%.
Bottom line: Irvine is in for a world of pain. (Just look at Compressed Village sweating bullets.)
Why would I be sweating? I think I am not wealthy by all means, but I am very comfortable in Irvine.
Live here for more than 20+ years and I bought in 1999, just by luck. So you go figure out how much equity I have over the years. And I am one of those proponent of never over reach and never over extend yourself. I always held on to my purchases and I have not use any leverage, unlike LL loans to make purchases in the San Bernar-hell-no.
.Again, the more down play you are to Irvine, more foolish you look, because wealth knows where to put their money.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
Just because I didn't address something, doesn't mean I sidestepped it. Did you see how long my post was? It's hard to address each and every last point, but I don't disagree on Irvine reaching it's prior peak quicker than OC as a whole. It's just not all that relevant to the fact that Irvine is now crashing harder than the rest of OC (the original topic).
When studying the current Irvine crash in prices, there are only a few prior downturns that can be referenced. How do I make conclusions without referencing this historical data? You prefer to focus only on the last downturn because the data is most favorable to your pro-Irvine bias. I'm utilizing as much historical data as possible to see what patterns emerge. See the difference?
We don't know that Irvine will do better this cycle because the conditions that existed last time may not exist this time (FCB's anybody?). I am selling my investment properties because of my beliefs about the market. Isn't that putting my money where my mouth is?
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Liar Loan said:
Hah. We've both known each other on this board a long time... that's EXACTLY what it means.
Except I was refuting your "busting of the myth" that Irvine recovered faster... which it did and you conveniently the omitted section that used your own data to disprove your own statement. C'mon, I know how smart you are... that omission was intended, just like the sensationalist words you use to trigger us "biased" Irvine residents.
And again, you are trying to dance by referring to current prices when the subject of that particular paragraph was your contention that Irvine did not recover faster during the last crash. I know when you start deflecting because you start the sentence with "The more interesting.... ".
No. The difference is whenever you refer to a time frame, I refute it with evidence from that time frame, and then you have some excuse like... well FCBs, or what about the previous crash. Stop chasing the shiny objects.
I feel Irvine will always do better because if anything, Irvine's stability has improved since the last 2 cycles. Say you want to discount the FCBs (of which is only the Chinese ones)... that would be similar to the 90s crash where Irvine still fared better (even if just slightly). And with owners well-financed, central location, abundance of jobs, world class UCI, schools etc... Irvine is just a better real estate proposition than other OC cities. I'd like to see other members refute that... they may disagree with me on this slowdown but if they live and own in Irvine, then they put their money other than where their mouth is.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
So if this was supposed to be a slowdown for the last year and a half, and so many people have saved money, why is no one posting about it?
Solar, lower interest rates and presidential candidates get more action.
Solar, lower interest rates and presidential candidates get more action.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
As long as the FED continue its economy buoyancy path, easy and flush the economy with liquidity, where credits continue to extend and debts roll-over, all of these actions will push assets prices up and duration of time further and more further out. A reset and debt restructures will have to come, when? Nobody know. The one thing that I do know is everyone will need a place to live, either rent or buy.
Save money and waiting for doomsday is a loosing strategy.
Save money and waiting for doomsday is a loosing strategy.