Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases

What is your estimate for COVID-19 deaths in USA as of 30-APRIL-2020?


  • Total voters
    26
  • Poll closed .
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Cornflakes

Active member
As of today, the COVID-19 death count is 2409 in USA.

Let's see as TI members class, how accurate or grossly mistaken are we at predicting the COVID-19 mortality.

Be safe and do everything you can to keep these numbers low, regardless of predictions.
 
What is the average time lapse between sick and dead for those that die?  I?ve seen estimate that it?s 5 days of ICU on average, which I?d guess most deaths are 1-2 days and live is 5-10.  So  basically probably 4000 more from already diagnosed.

Can we shorten the timeline. I?m thinking 6000 dead by April 3rd next Friday. 

New York is running just under 8000 cases a day for the last 5 days.  So NY is probably looking at 2400-7200 additional dead coming.On top of the 965 they have already and likely 1000 more dead of 50,000 that tested positive in the last week.

So New York at 7565 dead by April 30?  1800 or so by Next Friday 4/3.

Of course the million dollar question, how many of our urban centers are NYC two weeks or a month ago?

So nation wide?  Blindly throwing a dart: 43,752.  Through the highly complex math of guessing our other states are New York 10-30 days ago, the big ones will be just like it and the smaller ones will too, just smaller.

That?s my pulled out of my backside numbers.  I will happy if wrongly overestimating.
 
nosuchreality said:
I will happy if wrongly overestimating.
As of now I'm the lone crackpot at over 80k (much more, I think), and I, too, will be happy to be overestimating.  But all my other crackpot predictions were too optimistic.  2 weeks ago today I estimated that today we would have about the same # of cases as China, which seemed ridiculous at the time.  Today we have 75% more cases than China.  I will run a model and report back with an actual #.  We must respect the math while acknowledging that the math doesn't factor in things like hitting critical mass and changes in behavior (e.g., shelter in place).
 
nosuchreality said:
Of course the million dollar question, how many of our urban centers are NYC two weeks or a month ago?

Based on the state rankings of new deaths, it looks like Detroit, Chicago, and New Orleans are the up-and-coming hot spots.
 
This is sort of a sick game, but I voted for 40,000 assuming it means 40,000-79,999.  My estimate is 60,000 by April 30.
 
I'm in the 65-75k range worst case 25-30k Best case IMHO so my vote is on the upper end at 40k... hedging my bets.
 
True WOC experiment would be to let everyone specific a specific number and get a large enough sample size (like 200+). Poll on TI thread has limitation and fewer responses.
 
Ok, so I am compiling data in a spreadsheet.

So far:

 
nosuchreality 43,752
Cornflakes 49,000
daedalus 110,000
Liar Loans 60,000
SGIP 47,500

I will ask my family and friends and log the numbers in the spreadsheet. Please post your specific number estimate here, and any other estimates you collect from your friends.

Will report periodically.
 
Compressed-Village said:
Is death from riots counts? Indirect from covid, but still death?

Good point...I'd say at least 30K suicides and 100K drinking themselves to death come end of summer. This overreaction by Newsom, and the adverse affects will be talked about for generations
 
Well that's going to inspire a lot of confidence in the govt's ability to see this through.

What's scary to me is there isn't enough data to give a very good prediction of the progression of deaths.  Some solutions, perfectly plausible with the data thus far, predict over a million deaths by the end of April.    Riots and suicides, indeed.
 
Shouldn't trampling deaths at Wal-Mart from hoarders rushing for paper goods be factored in somehow?
 
Everyone who says we are about to lose 200,000 people realizes that we have only lost 33,000 people on earth, right? So we will make that number 233,000 all by ourselves? Seems a bit much. Why haven?t other countries like Mexico, who has hardly done anything have staggering losses, you would think they would be way ahead of us.
 
Here is the wisdom of the chattering class...Neil Furgeson at the Imperial College started the panic ball rolling with a 500,000 dead prediction...soon they dropped it to a more reasonable 20,000 but now think maybe only 5700... exponential regression at its best.

Coronavirus death toll could be 'just' 5,700

Modelling by the epidemiologist Neil Ferguson - also from Imperial College - last week predicted that  coronavirus  could lead to more than half a million deaths in the UK if left unchecked, and 260,000 with social distancing measures.

The paper from Imperial College, London, says that 5,700 people will die in Britain if the disease follows the same pattern as China now lockdown measures are in place.

This follows the government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance's grim assertion that 20,000 deaths in the UK would represent a "good outcome"
[url]https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-death-toll-could-just-21769975[/url]
 
morekaos said:
Everyone who says we are about to lose 200,000 people realizes that we have only lost 33,000 people on earth, right? So we will make that number 233,000 all by ourselves? Seems a bit much. Why haven?t other countries like Mexico, who has hardly done anything have staggering losses, you would think they would be way ahead of us.
I agree it does seem a bit much.  Likewise, the reality of where we are today seemed a bit much a month ago. 

2 days ago I was reading some comments by a licensed medical doctor, someone who is a "board certified infectious disease prevention expert".  He was adamant that the US would not lose even 1/10 the people that the flu kills in a season, which would cap losses at about 5500 people on the high side.  Despite the data and charts, he would not budge from that stance.  That was 2 days ago.  As of today we have lost over 2500 people.  It's not mathematically possible, without some form of immediate treatment, to limit deaths to 5500 in this country, simply based on the # of current infections.  My point is it's possible to be extremely smart and knowledgeable, and still get it wrong.  And I truly hope I'm the one who's wrong.
 
Just drove in the car yesterday to get out  the house.  Saw the high school soccer field being used by some team or group for a practice session a dozen young adults in a tight group, most sitting on the bench shoulder to shoulder getting talked to by team captain.  Saw cars at a popular nature spot  lining both sides of the road for several hundred yards.

Everyday, the crowds line up at Costco. I hear they have people keeping their distance, I don't know I haven't gone.  On my once a week shopping run last week, I did hit Target. Going to avoid that for a few weeks. Crowded, people weren't good about maintaining distance and too many non-family groups of 20-somethings.

All this in neighborhoods where many of them live in multigenerational households.

Maybe I'm paranoid, but Cali's numbers are still coming.
 
Went for a bike ride yesterday, many in the streets. One street had blocked off and everyone was outside on their porches blaring music. Tons on the water. Went to Home Depot to do a crown mounding project, had trouble finding parking. Costco had no line but was packed, got some pizza. Now that the weather is hot, good luck keeping people in. California has 132 dead. I think we ll be ok. Yesterday?s daily death count actually fell.
 
morekaos said:
Here is the wisdom of the chattering class...Neil Furgeson at the Imperial College started the panic ball rolling with a 500,000 dead prediction...soon they dropped it to a more reasonable 20,000 but now think maybe only 5700... exponential regression at its best.

Coronavirus death toll could be 'just' 5,700

Modelling by the epidemiologist Neil Ferguson - also from Imperial College - last week predicted that  coronavirus  could lead to more than half a million deaths in the UK if left unchecked, and 260,000 with social distancing measures.

The paper from Imperial College, London, says that 5,700 people will die in Britain if the disease follows the same pattern as China now lockdown measures are in place.

This follows the government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance's grim assertion that 20,000 deaths in the UK would represent a "good outcome"
[url]https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-death-toll-could-just-21769975[/url]

I mentioned this in my Math thread.

Just to present both sides, I think Neil's first estimate was the extreme, if there weren't any lockdowns, his new ones are taking into account the measures the UK have implemented.
 
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