Where are we headed?Irvine home prices?

All those homes that you listed are 1,500sf or smaller so they will trade at a higher per SF than larger homes.  Just like in Irvine, the lower end of the market (sub $700k) in South OC is very warm because you have a lot of qualified buyers below $700k.  Smaller homes like that in Irvine are trading close to $600/sf. 
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
All those homes that you listed are 1,500sf or smaller so they will trade at a higher per SF than larger homes.  Just like in Irvine, the lower end of the market (sub $700k) in South OC is very warm because you have a lot of qualified buyers below $700k.  Smaller homes like that in Irvine are trading close to $600/sf.
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It's never truly apples to apples compassion.
The only $600/sqft I see are in Turtle Rock/Turtle Ridge. Those are much older homes compared to Aliso.
Is there anything $600/sqft in Irvine East of the 5?
Even if we use $600/sqft for comparison, That's 10 - 15% premium compared to Aliso.
Irvine used to command 30% + premium compared to Aliso when we purchased in 2011


 
Kenkoko said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
All those homes that you listed are 1,500sf or smaller so they will trade at a higher per SF than larger homes.  Just like in Irvine, the lower end of the market (sub $700k) in South OC is very warm because you have a lot of qualified buyers below $700k.  Smaller homes like that in Irvine are trading close to $600/sf.
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It's never truly apples to apples compassion.
The only $600/sqft I see are in Turtle Rock/Turtle Ridge. Those are much older homes compared to Aliso.
Is there anything $600/sqft in Irvine East of the 5?
Even if we use $600/sqft for comparison, That's 10 - 15% premium compared to Aliso.
Irvine used to command 30% + premium compared to Aliso when we purchased in 2011
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Here are a handful of $600-$700/sf properties that closed recently in Irvine that aren't in Turtle Rock and East of the 5 (mainly due to do the low square footage)...
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/4092-Belvedere-St-92604/home/4667092
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Varesa-92620/home/4782204
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/88-Bridgeport-92620/home/4782846
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/2-Jefferson-92620/home/4782969
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/34-Orchard-92618/home/4746339
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/56-Herringbone-92620/home/17468582

But I do agree with you, the gap has narrowed over the years between Irvine and surrounding cities like Aliso Viejo and Foothill Ranch.
 
lnc said:
If another hosing downturn occurred, the existing home inventory here in Irvine most likely will also decreased and prevent home prices to drop significantly.

When the home price dropped, homeowner will less likely to list their home for sale unless they really have to.  Why sell your house when the price is bad, they will simply wait until the price goes up again.  And nothing this this time around to force significant number of homeowner to sell their homes.
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If you are a homeowner already, you can generally buy/sell at anytime. If houses around you, including yours have all dropped 20%, then you will sell at 20% lower and go buy a move up house that has also decreased 20%. The same applies when prices are going up.  One you buy a house you have locked in your price in the market. It sucks right now and has sucked for the last several years  if you are a first time home buyer since they are getting fleeced with ridiculously high prices.

This is the same reason BTBs max ROI is a fallacy. What good does it do you if you buy a place, it appreciates 50%, sell and go buy another place that went up a similar %?

Now if you are relocating to a cheaper area then it probably makes sense to wait for a rebound in prices.
 
None of the ones you posted are even 1200 SQFT.  :p 

USC, I do not think the insane price increases in Aliso are just on the premium unique homes. There are condos in Aliso being sold for $450/sqft.

My parents bought 2 rental condos back in 2010, one in Aliso and the other in Woodbury.
The Aliso condo was 1450 sqft bought for 280K
The Woodbury condo was 1408 sqft bought for 445k
They are now only about 5% - 10% difference in market price.

I guess I am just not in the popular " Irvine or bust " camp.  From what I've seen, Irvine price increases have really slowed down while city like Aliso continues to climb and catch up.



 
Kenkoko said:
I guess I am just not in the popular " Irvine or bust " camp.  From what I've seen, Irvine price increases have really slowed down while city like Aliso continues to climb and catch up.
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I noticed on Redfin there are a lot of listings in Aliso Viejo with price reductions.
 
eyephone said:
Kenkoko said:
I guess I am just not in the popular " Irvine or bust " camp.  From what I've seen, Irvine price increases have really slowed down while city like Aliso continues to climb and catch up.
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I noticed on Redfin there are a lot of listings in Aliso Viejo with price reductions.
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I've been following Aliso Viejo listings on redfin for the past few months and I've also noticed quite a few price reductions. It's almost as if sellers got a little carried away and were pushing too far into that $775k-$850k range for 1500-1800 sq. Ft SFR's. The sweet spot for Aliso right now seems to be the $650k-$750k that is being driven by people who are coming from cities like Irvine where it has become prohibitively expensive for first-time home buyers that are trying to purchase an SFR.
 
eddieuclabruin said:
I've been following Aliso Viejo listings on redfin for the past few months and I've also noticed quite a few price reductions. It's almost as if sellers got a little carried away and were pushing too far into that $775k-$850k range for 1500-1800 sq. Ft SFR's. The sweet spot for Aliso right now seems to be the $650k-$750k that is being driven by people who are coming from cities like Irvine where it has become prohibitively expensive for first-time home buyers that are trying to purchase an SFR.
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Looking at recently sold prices would probably be a better indicator of where the market is. ( as oppose to looking at listing prices increase/decrease)

I think what you are saying about home buyers being driven to Aliso due to Irvine becoming prohibitively expensive has increasingly been happening since 2011. Price gap between Irvine and Aliso has dropped from 30-35% to 10% now.

Don't get me wrong. Irvine is still great especially for your primary residence. My own parents are in the popular Irvine or bust camp. But more and more people (outside of this forum perhaps) are finding Aliso to be a viable alternative. Hence the closing in price gaps.

 
Kenkoko said:
eyephone said:
Ken: What are your thoughts regrading the ?traffic? in south oc?
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The only traffic I see are in Irvine! (pun intended)
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South Orange County Traffic Relief Effort

With Orange County?s population expected to increase by more than 250,000 residents by 2035 and traffic projected to increase in South Orange County by 66 percent by 2040, the Transportation Corridor Agencies (TCA) are committed to identifying solutions that will relieve traffic congestion through South Orange County.
https://thetollroads.com/about/projects/long-range-planning
 
Outside of Irvine, Tustin Ranch, Aliso viejo, Mission Viejo and Doothill Ranch were other cities I would look at.

Our starter home was not in Irvine, but that only lasted 3 years.
 
The argument being made about areas like Aliso catching up to Irvine can be made about Irvine itself catching up to more coastal properties (like Newport coast) .

In finance terms , this phenomena is called ?compression ? ? when the gap between higher end and lower tiers starts to shrink . Small cap index outperforming s&p is something similar.

If a ?real? correction happens ? by this I mean when insider experts like USC start to get really worried ?  this phenom will work in reverse ? now we have ?decompression? . So those up and coming areas will start to drop more in percentage terms than the higher end. And don?t cite manhattan to me as an example here .

If I haven?t thrown enough jargon at this yet , let?s me add another ? ?decoupling ? . When a hitherto lower tier area gets gentrified with enough critical mass and stable cash flow buyers that it joins a higher tier .  A good example here would be silverlake in LA .
 
If Aliso is rising so fast, then why the price reductions?

Also, since the last down turn prices have increased in almost everywhere. Such as Compton, Stanton, Santa Ana etc.

 
eyephone said:
Bw - there are price reductions in Austin, Texas.
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There needs to be context to the price reductions.  Are those properties prices above current closed comps?  If so, then that just means that buyers aren't willing to help the seller and listing agent set the model match closed comp record.  If not, then yes prices are dropping.  It also matters the months of inventory in Austin as well...the same 1-3 months of inventory is a seller's market, 4-6 months of inventory is a neutral market, and 6+ months of inventory is a buyer's market.  That metric applies to every market.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
eyephone said:
Bw - there are price reductions in Austin, Texas.
Click to expand...

There needs to be context to the price reductions.  Are those properties prices above current closed comps?  If so, then that just means that buyers aren't willing to help the seller and listing agent set the model match closed comp record.  If not, then yes prices are dropping.  It also matters the months of inventory in Austin as well...the same 1-3 months of inventory is a seller's market, 4-6 months of inventory is a neutral market, and 6+ months of inventory is a buyer's market.  That metric applies to every market.
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Reducing the price feature on Redfin is just an indicator or maybe not.
I just took a quick glance at the following cities: OKC, Miami, Houston, Vegas, Dallas

It looks like there are multiple price reduction listings.
 
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