When would be next housing Bottom?

[irvinebullhousing]

Transactions down, yes. No surprises there.

Look at the median prices for all the zip codes of Irvine.

Heart breaking.

Why is it heartbreaking?

Irvine 92602: $1,380,000 median, down 28.9% in a year. Price rank? 8th of 83. Sales of 123 vs. 66 a year earlier, a gain of 86.4% in 12 months.
Irvine 92603: $995,000 median, down 12.7% in a year. Price rank? No. 11 of 83. Sales of 45 vs. 54 a year earlier, a decline of 16.7% in 12 months.
Irvine 92604: $762,500 median, down 5.9% in a year. Price rank? No. 30 of 83. Sales of 44 vs. 58 a year earlier, a decline of 24.1% in 12 months.
Irvine 92606: $800,000 median, down 8% in a year. Price rank? No. 22 of 83. Sales of 23 vs. 25 a year earlier, a decline of 8% in 12 months.
Irvine 92612: $645,000 median, down 9.2% in a year. Price rank? No. 55 of 83. Sales of 71 vs. 96 a year earlier, a decline of 26% in 12 months.
Irvine 92614: $677,000 median, up 2.3% in a year. Price rank? No. 45 of 83. Sales of 34 vs. 48 a year earlier, a decline of 29.2% in 12 months.
Irvine 92618: $963,500 median, up 23.8% in a year. Price rank? No. 12 of 83. Sales of 248 vs. 356 a year earlier, a decline of 30.3% in 12 months.
Irvine 92620: $1,052,500 median, up 4.6% in a year. Price rank? No. 10 of 83. Sales of 172 vs. 300 a year earlier, a decline of 42.7% in 12 months.

If you add up the percentages and average them out, it's only a 4.25% drop in median price... or am I doing the math wrong? This could be skewed because it doesn't take into account number of homes in each zip.

My dried humor. It is still expensive.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

My dried humor. It is still expensive.

You forgot background music from the smallest violin in existence.

 

[Mety]

So many people thinking the prices are all going up again.

Well, is it time to say... "is it seasonal?" 

 

[zubs]

We only point to the data with no forecasting of Irvine housing going up or down.
If you have a better source for Irvine housing data, please post it.


Are we overdue for one of USC's housing updates on Irvine?

 

[Mety]

Oh sure. I just find it funny how some people won't use seasonal when the market seems to be doing well, but keep using when the market is slow. Shouldn't we use for both equally?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Oh sure. I just find it funny how some people won't use seasonal when the market seems to be doing well, but keep using when the market is slow. Shouldn't we use for both equally?

Don?t look at me. I get criticized for saying that.

 

[Mety]

Oh sure. I just find it funny how some people won't use seasonal when the market seems to be doing well, but keep using when the market is slow. Shouldn't we use for both equally?

Don?t look at me. I get criticized for saying that.

;D Hey, no criticism made. Just trying to be fair every perspective in this game.
I do feel though the market is doing well especially sub-$1m, but I'm not sure if the price will keep rising. Did we ever have a long stable non-rising or non-dropping market for a long time in the past? I'm not as old so some of you guys might know better, but my understanding is it's always rising too much or falling so miserably. But you never know. It might be "different" this time, right?

 

[meccos12]

Oh sure. I just find it funny how some people won't use seasonal when the market seems to be doing well, but keep using when the market is slow. Shouldn't we use for both equally?

Don?t look at me. I get criticized for saying that.

lol.  who do you think Mety was referencing? 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Oh sure. I just find it funny how some people won't use seasonal when the market seems to be doing well, but keep using when the market is slow. Shouldn't we use for both equally?

Don?t look at me. I get criticized for saying that.

lol.  who do you think Mety was referencing?

Not me. Seasonal to me means both good and bad, it?s all encompassing.

Just look at the graphs for the last 20 years, prices ebb and flow during the same seasons.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

What???? The bottom is already passed, looking for the price to go up from here. Priced Out!!! Again.

 

[ThirtySomethingWEquity]

What???? The bottom is already passed, looking for the price to go up from here. Priced Out!!! Again.

Did you need some help reading the latest chart?  Or do I need some help in detecting the invisible /s

 

[irvinebullhousing]

No I don't need charts. I go with what I can afford. And the more I wait, the more it will be out of reach for me.

I don't think the products that I want will be any cheaper than they are today, 1 year from now or 5 years from now. Only more expensive while my buying power diminish as the trade war escalates.

 

[ThirtySomethingWEquity]

No I don't need charts. I go with what I can afford. And the more I wait, the more it will be out of reach for me.

I don't think the products that I want will be any cheaper than they are today, 1 year from now or 5 years from now. Only more expensive while my buying power diminish as the trade war escalates.

What are you looking for?  I think there's a good chance I can link to this in a year to prove one of us was wrong.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

No I don't need charts. I go with what I can afford. And the more I wait, the more it will be out of reach for me.

I don't think the products that I want will be any cheaper than they are today, 1 year from now or 5 years from now. Only more expensive while my buying power diminish as the trade war escalates.

What are you looking for?  I think there's a good chance I can link to this in a year to prove one of us was wrong.

From your writing, I think you are in the camp of sold, and now waiting correct? How long have you been waiting?

 

[Mety]

No I don't need charts. I go with what I can afford. And the more I wait, the more it will be out of reach for me.

I don't think the products that I want will be any cheaper than they are today, 1 year from now or 5 years from now. Only more expensive while my buying power diminish as the trade war escalates.

What are you looking for?  I think there's a good chance I can link to this in a year to prove one of us was wrong.

From your writing, I think you are in the camp of sold, and now waiting correct? How long have you been waiting?

Come on. Be nice, sir   Everyone has different life and reason to sell and buy homes. Owning doesn't mean better while I do agree on much benefits of it. Sometimes renting in an area or a home a year or two give us better idea of what we need next stage. Also buying now is much better than buying last year in terms of the price and the rate so the price doesn't always go up up up. Some might say it's not much different from now and a year ago, but for some people, those couple hundred thousand and 0.5% rate do make much difference. Besides, we don't even know if ThirtySomething is waiting.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

No I don't need charts. I go with what I can afford. And the more I wait, the more it will be out of reach for me.

I don't think the products that I want will be any cheaper than they are today, 1 year from now or 5 years from now. Only more expensive while my buying power diminish as the trade war escalates.

What are you looking for?  I think there's a good chance I can link to this in a year to prove one of us was wrong.

From your writing, I think you are in the camp of sold, and now waiting correct? How long have you been waiting?

Come on. Be nice, sir   Everyone has different life and reason to sell and buy homes. Owning doesn't mean better while I do agree on much benefits of it. Sometimes renting in an area or a home a year or two give us better idea of what we need next stage. Also buying now is much better than buying last year in terms of the price and the rate so the price doesn't always go up up up. Some might say it's not much different from now and a year ago, but for some people, those couple hundred thousand and 0.5% rate do make much difference. Besides, we don't even know if ThirtySomething is waiting.

I don't mean to sound mean, this is just genuine questions for wanting to wait.  Or timing the bottom. So if you were to buy last year with the lower price and higher rate, wouldn't you would be in a better position with the refinancing at a lower rate today or a few months ago? I would say yes.

 

[Mety]

No I don't need charts. I go with what I can afford. And the more I wait, the more it will be out of reach for me.

I don't think the products that I want will be any cheaper than they are today, 1 year from now or 5 years from now. Only more expensive while my buying power diminish as the trade war escalates.

What are you looking for?  I think there's a good chance I can link to this in a year to prove one of us was wrong.

From your writing, I think you are in the camp of sold, and now waiting correct? How long have you been waiting?

Come on. Be nice, sir   Everyone has different life and reason to sell and buy homes. Owning doesn't mean better while I do agree on much benefits of it. Sometimes renting in an area or a home a year or two give us better idea of what we need next stage. Also buying now is much better than buying last year in terms of the price and the rate so the price doesn't always go up up up. Some might say it's not much different from now and a year ago, but for some people, those couple hundred thousand and 0.5% rate do make much difference. Besides, we don't even know if ThirtySomething is waiting.

I don't mean to sound mean, this is just genuine questions for wanting to wait.  Or timing the bottom. So if you were to buy last year with the lower price and higher rate, wouldn't you would be in a better position with the refinancing at a lower rate today or a few months ago? I would say yes.

Yes on refinancing, but no on the price. The price is definitely lower than last year's. Sure, not much lower, but considering the default annual appreciation (about 3%), it's actually lower than usual. Many above $1m homes are coming down to $900k ranges in order to sell.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

No I don't need charts. I go with what I can afford. And the more I wait, the more it will be out of reach for me.

I don't think the products that I want will be any cheaper than they are today, 1 year from now or 5 years from now. Only more expensive while my buying power diminish as the trade war escalates.

What are you looking for?  I think there's a good chance I can link to this in a year to prove one of us was wrong.

From your writing, I think you are in the camp of sold, and now waiting correct? How long have you been waiting?

Come on. Be nice, sir   Everyone has different life and reason to sell and buy homes. Owning doesn't mean better while I do agree on much benefits of it. Sometimes renting in an area or a home a year or two give us better idea of what we need next stage. Also buying now is much better than buying last year in terms of the price and the rate so the price doesn't always go up up up. Some might say it's not much different from now and a year ago, but for some people, those couple hundred thousand and 0.5% rate do make much difference. Besides, we don't even know if ThirtySomething is waiting.

I don't mean to sound mean, this is just genuine questions for wanting to wait.  Or timing the bottom. So if you were to buy last year with the lower price and higher rate, wouldn't you would be in a better position with the refinancing at a lower rate today or a few months ago? I would say yes.

Yes on refinancing, but no on the price. The price is definitely lower than last year's. Sure, not much lower, but considering the default annual appreciation (about 3%), it's actually lower than usual. Many above $1m homes are coming down to $900k ranges in order to sell.

Links????

 

[Mety]

No I don't need charts. I go with what I can afford. And the more I wait, the more it will be out of reach for me.

I don't think the products that I want will be any cheaper than they are today, 1 year from now or 5 years from now. Only more expensive while my buying power diminish as the trade war escalates.

What are you looking for?  I think there's a good chance I can link to this in a year to prove one of us was wrong.

From your writing, I think you are in the camp of sold, and now waiting correct? How long have you been waiting?

Come on. Be nice, sir   Everyone has different life and reason to sell and buy homes. Owning doesn't mean better while I do agree on much benefits of it. Sometimes renting in an area or a home a year or two give us better idea of what we need next stage. Also buying now is much better than buying last year in terms of the price and the rate so the price doesn't always go up up up. Some might say it's not much different from now and a year ago, but for some people, those couple hundred thousand and 0.5% rate do make much difference. Besides, we don't even know if ThirtySomething is waiting.

I don't mean to sound mean, this is just genuine questions for wanting to wait.  Or timing the bottom. So if you were to buy last year with the lower price and higher rate, wouldn't you would be in a better position with the refinancing at a lower rate today or a few months ago? I would say yes.

Yes on refinancing, but no on the price. The price is definitely lower than last year's. Sure, not much lower, but considering the default annual appreciation (about 3%), it's actually lower than usual. Many above $1m homes are coming down to $900k ranges in order to sell.

Links????

Don't believe me? Ask USCTrojan. Everyone seems to believe him even when he is saying the same thing the most people disagree  ;D.  For example, eyephone and meccos were saying what USCTorjan is saying now, but everyone was questioning them while no one questions USCTrojan but gives him thanks. Don't get me wrong. I respect him and his opinion also, but just funny how people react differently to different people even when the content is the same.

Anyways, I believe enough links have been given here about the price deductions this year from end of last year. The sales seem to have picked up quite a bit, but the main reason I would say is because it's that season of the year. Lower rates have been helping also. But the homes trying to sell above the last comp price are not really selling. They stay long in the market and finally cut the price like 3 times usually. Those that sell are all priced a little bit lower than last sold. That's the strategy as of now. I even see the new homes from PS and GP are having price cuts including many more quick move-in homes. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I don't recall when USC was saying the same thing as eyephone and meccos.

USC was saying flat to slightly down, but not a significant slowdown... or am I mistaken?