When will quarterly US GDP exceed 2019Q4?
- Thread starter freedomcm
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Agreed, full recovery won't come until 2022+ (especially the job market) but that doesn't mean that stock market and real estate won't be higher than the last peak before then with all the Fed money printing and gov't stimulus.
nosuchreality
Well-known member
Isn?t our GDP like $21.7T/yr before the mess?
https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2019-advance-estimate
https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2019-advance-estimate
nosuchreality
Well-known member
Coffee time Freedom. $5.5T.
Kidding aside, that depends. I'm not sure if it depends more on how the virus behaves or more on how our Governments manage it.
If the virus lays low through summer, things will look good come fall. If it doesn't come back like the flu in October, I think confidence will return pretty solidly.
If it semi-behaves and sit and hover in the 500-1000 deaths a day range that 5000 deaths a week will slowly grind into people where someone they know is in the hospital or dead. I do think that changes people's perceptions of it.
Then there is the other wild-card. Are the major cities, LA, SF, Seattle, DFW, Chicago ready for a hotspot flareup to test, trace and isolate or not? If a place like DFW gets a Sioux Falls type outbreak going where 80,000 test positive in a month with 2000 dead, never mind a NYC type event. I really don't think the cities are ready.
TLDR, Q4 2021.
Kidding aside, that depends. I'm not sure if it depends more on how the virus behaves or more on how our Governments manage it.
If the virus lays low through summer, things will look good come fall. If it doesn't come back like the flu in October, I think confidence will return pretty solidly.
If it semi-behaves and sit and hover in the 500-1000 deaths a day range that 5000 deaths a week will slowly grind into people where someone they know is in the hospital or dead. I do think that changes people's perceptions of it.
Then there is the other wild-card. Are the major cities, LA, SF, Seattle, DFW, Chicago ready for a hotspot flareup to test, trace and isolate or not? If a place like DFW gets a Sioux Falls type outbreak going where 80,000 test positive in a month with 2000 dead, never mind a NYC type event. I really don't think the cities are ready.
TLDR, Q4 2021.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Kenkoko said:
Agreed, full recovery won't come until 2022+ (especially the job market) but that doesn't mean that stock market and real estate won't be higher than the last peak before then with all the Fed money printing and gov't stimulus.
iacrenter
Well-known member
Agreed, it will be a 1 year+ recovery. Regaining consumer confidence will be the key and that will take some time. Even if they get a vaccine approved by the end of this year (very doubtful), getting production, distribution, and administration ramped up will be challenging. Even post vaccine our world and economy will be forever changed. I can see permanent use of tele services / commuting and contactless transactions / pickup at stores.
morekaos
Well-known member
Well this could be interesting...
Latest estimate: 34.6 percent ? October 1, 2020
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 34.6 percent on October 1, up from 32.0 percent on September 25. After recent releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 38.1 percent and 34.2 percent, respectively, to 45.1 percent and 36.8 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.28 percentage points to -0.56 percentage points.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Latest estimate: 34.6 percent ? October 1, 2020
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 34.6 percent on October 1, up from 32.0 percent on September 25. After recent releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 38.1 percent and 34.2 percent, respectively, to 45.1 percent and 36.8 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.28 percentage points to -0.56 percentage points.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
The $61.7 billion Aug. U.S. trade deficit is the largest in 14 years, and the 2nd biggest ever. The deficit in goods surged to $83.9 billion, a record high. @realDonaldTrump promised to make America great again by winning on trade. Instead losses on trade have never been greater.
morekaos
Well-known member
We are America!!!...with a capital A!...
U.S. GDP booms at 33.1% rate in Q3, better than expected
U.S. GDP accelerated at a 33.1% annualized pace in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported.
That was better than the 32% estimate from a Dow Jones economist survey.
A surge in business and residential investment along with stronger consumer activity helped the economy after its worst-ever quarter in Q2.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/us-gdp-report-third-quarter-2020.html
https://youtu.be/YXjqTyQuq4w
U.S. GDP booms at 33.1% rate in Q3, better than expected
U.S. GDP accelerated at a 33.1% annualized pace in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported.
That was better than the 32% estimate from a Dow Jones economist survey.
A surge in business and residential investment along with stronger consumer activity helped the economy after its worst-ever quarter in Q2.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/us-gdp-report-third-quarter-2020.html
https://youtu.be/YXjqTyQuq4w
nosuchreality
Well-known member
Except we don?t have another $4,000,000,000,000.00 dollars of stimulus coming.
morekaos
Well-known member
I don't think we need it and thats why they slow walked it all quarter...they really didn't want to do it. Our economy is an amazing animal...unlike any other on earth!
Laffer, an informal economic adviser to President Trump, including on COVID-19 response, said the Q3 bounceback wouldn't have been possible without strong economic fundamentals.
"COVID-19 hit the U.S. economy, and [prior to the outbreak] the U.S. economy had the lowest unemployment rate we had since 1959," Laffer said. "It had the longest period of expansion in, I think, U.S. history. So, when it hit the economy. I mean we were in as good a shape as possible to absorb that. Imagine what would have happened if it hit in the middle of the Great Recession or some other time. It would have caused a lot more damage."
Laffer said compared to Europe and other developed nations, the United States has recovered more quickly in part, he believes, because the federalist model of flexible, decentralized government with power exercised at the state level allowed for a more rapid economic reopening in areas that were less at risk of intense COVID outbreaks.
According to economists from global accounting and financial consulting giant Deloitte, GDP in the United States is set to contract by 6.4% in 2020 and by 1.7% in 2021. However, Deloitte estimated that the U.S. contraction in in 2020 would be the second mildest (behind only Japan) among G7 nations, with all the other countries ? Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the U.K. ? estimated to take a harder hit.
https://justthenews.com/nation/economy/new-q3-economic-numbers-expected-show-record-growth-best-ever-recovery-us-economists
Laffer, an informal economic adviser to President Trump, including on COVID-19 response, said the Q3 bounceback wouldn't have been possible without strong economic fundamentals.
"COVID-19 hit the U.S. economy, and [prior to the outbreak] the U.S. economy had the lowest unemployment rate we had since 1959," Laffer said. "It had the longest period of expansion in, I think, U.S. history. So, when it hit the economy. I mean we were in as good a shape as possible to absorb that. Imagine what would have happened if it hit in the middle of the Great Recession or some other time. It would have caused a lot more damage."
Laffer said compared to Europe and other developed nations, the United States has recovered more quickly in part, he believes, because the federalist model of flexible, decentralized government with power exercised at the state level allowed for a more rapid economic reopening in areas that were less at risk of intense COVID outbreaks.
According to economists from global accounting and financial consulting giant Deloitte, GDP in the United States is set to contract by 6.4% in 2020 and by 1.7% in 2021. However, Deloitte estimated that the U.S. contraction in in 2020 would be the second mildest (behind only Japan) among G7 nations, with all the other countries ? Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the U.K. ? estimated to take a harder hit.
https://justthenews.com/nation/economy/new-q3-economic-numbers-expected-show-record-growth-best-ever-recovery-us-economists
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Best jokes of the day!!!
Best jokes of the year!!! Keep it going, this is almost better than laughing gas.
Best jokes of the year!!! Keep it going, this is almost better than laughing gas.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
The day, turn to weeks and then months.
This dip sh?t won?t accept the lost and claim voter frauds.
If there is any frauds, it will be the Orange man. He going to jail after this election. They will throw the book at him.
This dip sh?t won?t accept the lost and claim voter frauds.
If there is any frauds, it will be the Orange man. He going to jail after this election. They will throw the book at him.