<p>i bet Lennar is NOT going to start the great park / el toro project anytime soon - they have no money to develop. Just look at their B.S.</p>
<p>In terms of Irvine company, and mission viejo company, I also will bet you that they would rather wait this downturn out two years, or three years - which means all their 2009 projects will be further delayed until it is relatively clear the market has stablized. </p>
<p>In Woodbury east, other than the one track opened two months ago, other tracks have already been delayed by at least two quarters (even after the model homes are in process of being built). So this means woodbury east is on hold for now too. It will only make sense to delay further if market continue to do down q1 / q2 of next year. </p>
<p>In Woodbury, the new Cal Pac home's model home is done, but they are delaying the openings to Q1 next year. Again, wait and see approach, and none of us wil be surprised if there are further delays. StanPac was going to start a new track in the 3200 to 3500 sq ft range Q1 of next year. However, I don't think they will move forward on that plan, since they need to protect their BS right now. </p>
<p>This leaves just VOC area and PS in irivne. PS is not cranking out a lot of new homes right now as far as I know. And I am sure Irvine Company will not let any builder to "upset" the market too much. </p>
<p>In terms of VOC, I don't track.</p>
<p>The only area I think you might see potential large new home discounts are in the VOC area. Then again, I don't believe the comps in VOC will effect Northwood, Northpark, Woodbury, Turtle Ridge, Woodbrige, Oakcreek, Woodbury that much. Remember VOC/ tustin field's comps have always quite a bit lower than the areas I mentioned just above. </p>
<p>I think the large discount keys belong to the existing home owners in Irvine. </p>
<p> </p>