The 2020 Presidential Election

[Kenkoko]

I tend to side with the right in terms of business, less government and less spending (well... not sure if less spending is a right characteristic anymore)... whereas I'm left when it comes to social issues (although not all of them... as I'm not supportive of things like universal healthcare and welfare state programs).

So you are a classic libertarian 

Just curious, why do you feel you're on the left on social issues when you don't believe healthcare is a human right and you don't believe in social safety nets? No judgement but those are two giant pillars of left wing politics.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I tend to side with the right in terms of business, less government and less spending (well... not sure if less spending is a right characteristic anymore)... whereas I'm left when it comes to social issues (although not all of them... as I'm not supportive of things like universal healthcare and welfare state programs).

So you are a classic libertarian 

Just curious, why do you feel you're on the left on social issues when you don't believe healthcare is a human right and you don't believe in social safety nets? No judgement but those are two giant pillars of left wing politics.

Social issues I care about are more in regards to equality and opportunity. If the US was a smaller country, Universal Healthcare could work, but as you can see that we can't even get consistent Covid protocols due to the vast differences in states/demographics/etc, it will just continue to be inefficient at a Fed level (although your suggestions for a hybrid system are intriguing). As for social safety nets, we've discussed this before, but I'm more about self supporting assistance than handouts.

I do think libertarian (small L) fits me most, I actually didn't really care about politics when I was younger and then started listening to the "Sage of South Central", Larry Elder on the radio, who had many philosophies that resonated with me. But I haven't listened to him for many years now... as politics as a whole is just very toxic at times (like it is now).

Is it too late to get Yang back in?

 

[Kenkoko]

Thanks for the response IHO.

You're the first "socially left" person I know who don't support universal healthcare and believe in self help bootstraps.

Not judging anyone, but it's interesting how we label ourselves on TI. It's definitely different than Twitter.  ;D

I consider myself center left, but by TI standards, I'm probably far left. I mean TIer like adventurous called himself slightly more conservative than average. He's seems very right in my book or at least by Twitter standards.

It's actually too early for Yang  :'(.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I guess it depends on the social issue.

Maybe I'm not socially left... I'm whatever race equality, gender equality, economic equality is supposed to be. This may irk Mety, but I'm also for religious equality... I'm in no position to "enforce" who/what is the correct God... just to believe in the one I believe in (I also don't pass judgement on anyone who doesn't believe in a God).

@Ken: I think you are center left... and you are consistent and reasonable, which I appreciate. No "left hate" like a certain starry member here.

 

[nosuchreality]

18-25 as a voting block is typically unreliable. They often don't show up at the polls. They didn't show up for Bernie in the primary.

I think Independents will swing the votes, not the D or R base. This is very evident in the polling #s.

Trump has held 95%+ R approval and Biden has near 90% D approval. The recent changes in the polls, leading to Biden's huge lead over Trump, all came from Independents.

It's a bit of a d?j? vu, like 2016 all over again.

The Dems have a centrist candidate no one is really enthusiastic about, but the polls show he is trouncing Trump.

In 2016, there was a wide delta between what ppl are willing to say publicly vs. what they're saying in private. Is that still the case in 2020?

My guts says no.

My gut says 3x. 

Again, general vibe matters not, it boils down to a handful States. And honestly, I have never so often found myself asking if the otherwise decent person I know, really read the shitball of whackadoodle they reshared, retweeted or reposted.

Four months is forever, economic pain is real, Government has failed us, both parties, all levels.

JIMHO, the Dems are missing it, it?s not Trump is good or bad, Trump is bad is fine, the People voting for him are in the all Government is bad camp and the Dem ticket is make Government great again.

It boils down to do those swing States feel more virus pain by Election Day or more economic pain?

 

[eyephone]

18-25 as a voting block is typically unreliable. They often don't show up at the polls. They didn't show up for Bernie in the primary.

I think Independents will swing the votes, not the D or R base. This is very evident in the polling #s.

Trump has held 95%+ R approval and Biden has near 90% D approval. The recent changes in the polls, leading to Biden's huge lead over Trump, all came from Independents.

It's a bit of a d?j? vu, like 2016 all over again.

The Dems have a centrist candidate no one is really enthusiastic about, but the polls show he is trouncing Trump.

In 2016, there was a wide delta between what ppl are willing to say publicly vs. what they're saying in private. Is that still the case in 2020?

My guts says no.

My gut says 3x. 

Again, general vibe matters not, it boils down to a handful States. And honestly, I have never so often found myself asking if the otherwise decent person I know, really read the shitball of whackadoodle they reshared, retweeted or reposted.

Four months is forever, economic pain is real, Government has failed us, both parties, all levels.

JIMHO, the Dems are missing it, it?s not Trump is good or bad, Trump is bad is fine, the People voting for him are in the all Government is bad camp and the Dem ticket is make Government great again.

It boils down to do those swing States feel more virus pain by Election Day or more economic pain?

You blame Dems but have no example during the pandemic.
Trump is down in the swing states.

I know you hate me, but who cares? Lol

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Let's hope he turns it around at Phoenix today... but if he talks about RampAndGlassOfWaterGate again... boo.

Looks like he listened... haven't heard the entire speech but no reports that he went back to excusing the ramp and water incidents.

He did double down on "Kung Flu" though. I just don't understand him, racist issues are at the forefront right now and then he goes and does that... not once... but twice?

Trump really is like a kid where you tell him you shouldn't be doing something and then he goes and does it again just because.

Is that charisma?

 

[nosuchreality]

His supporters eat it up.

They eat up the condemnations even more.

Swingable voters?  CHAZ,  Tearing down Grant?s statue, Aunt Jemima RIP, histrionics about saying thug about looters, JIMHO they view those as more problematic than a little Kung flu reference.  They?re more concerned about the thought police than racism. 

Trump talks crap not because his followers believe it but because his opponents react and that reaction gives his more voters.

Added: there are plenty of people that voted for Trump, say they won?t vote for him again, really don?t like him but November is a long time away and there are a million way for Biden to mess it up.

 

[Kings]

His supporters eat it up.

They eat up the condemnations even more.

Swingable voters?  CHAZ,  Tearing down Grant?s statue, Aunt Jemima RIP, histrionics about saying thug about looters, JIMHO they view those as more problematic than a little Kung flu reference.  They?re more concerned about the thought police than racism. 

Trump talks crap not because his followers believe it but because his opponents react and that reaction gives his more voters.

Added: there are plenty of people that voted for Trump, say they won?t vote for him again, really don?t like him but November is a long time away and there are a million way for Biden to mess it up.

trump has a lot working against him at the moment.  people vote for change, and if in november people are still feeling pretty down on themselves or life in general they will vote for biden.  we all know who trump is, what he does, how he says it, etc. there's nothing left that will surprise the voter about him. his base his strong, but to be honest, it's biden's race to lose since it will always be the independents that cast the deciding ballot.

 

[eyephone]

Let's hope he turns it around at Phoenix today... but if he talks about RampAndGlassOfWaterGate again... boo.

Looks like he listened... haven't heard the entire speech but no reports that he went back to excusing the ramp and water incidents.

He did double down on "Kung Flu" though. I just don't understand him, racist issues are at the forefront right now and then he goes and does that... not once... but twice?

Trump really is like a kid where you tell him you shouldn't be doing something and then he goes and does it again just because.

Is that charisma?

Business Insider: Trump seemed not to know what the '19' in COVID-19 stood for at a rally in Phoenix, where he also broke city rules by not wearing a mask
https://www.businessinsider.com/whats-19-trump-confused-over-covid-19-name-skips-mask-2020-6

Charisma does not get far. When you say things like what Trump says. Lol

 

[Kenkoko]

His supporters eat it up.

They eat up the condemnations even more.

Swingable voters?  CHAZ,  Tearing down Grant?s statue, Aunt Jemima RIP, histrionics about saying thug about looters, JIMHO they view those as more problematic than a little Kung flu reference.  They?re more concerned about the thought police than racism. 

Trump talks crap not because his followers believe it but because his opponents react and that reaction gives his more voters.

Added: there are plenty of people that voted for Trump, say they won?t vote for him again, really don?t like him but November is a long time away and there are a million way for Biden to mess it up.

I think the narrative of Biden having plenty of time to mess it up with more gaffes is way oversold. Very much the same way the mainstream media keeps doubling down on the narrative that the next major Trump controversy will drive his supporters away. Neither is true.

Biden has been in clear cognitive decline for well over a year. But non-Trump voters don't seem to care. Biden managed to hold on to tepid support through Tara Reade, Covid, hundreds of gaffes.

Trump didn't all of a sudden fall behind Biden in the polls. He has been steadily losing Independents in polling every month since COVID-19 started. This happened while he actually raised his support #s among Republicans.

 

[Kings]

His supporters eat it up.

They eat up the condemnations even more.

Swingable voters?  CHAZ,  Tearing down Grant?s statue, Aunt Jemima RIP, histrionics about saying thug about looters, JIMHO they view those as more problematic than a little Kung flu reference.  They?re more concerned about the thought police than racism. 

Trump talks crap not because his followers believe it but because his opponents react and that reaction gives his more voters.

Added: there are plenty of people that voted for Trump, say they won?t vote for him again, really don?t like him but November is a long time away and there are a million way for Biden to mess it up.

I think the narrative of Biden having plenty of time to mess it up with more gaffes is way oversold. Very much the same way the mainstream media keeps doubling down on the narrative that the next major Trump controversy will drive his supporters away. Neither is true.

Biden has been in clear cognitive decline for well over a year. But non-Trump voters don't seem to care. Biden managed to hold on to tepid support through Tara Reade, Covid, hundreds of gaffes.

Trump didn't all of a sudden fall behind Biden in the polls. He has been steadily losing Independents in polling every month since COVID-19 started. This happened while he actually raised his support #s among Republicans.

i'm actually really looking forward to the debates, as it will be an opportunity for the two of them to duke it out live on pay-per-view.  will trump go overboard with the insults?  will biden have a stroke on live tv?  tune in next week, same bat-time, same bat-channel

 

[adventurous]

I am eager to see two candidates facing each other.

 

[aquabliss]

I am eager to see two candidates facing each other.

Me too, first one should be end of September.  Still 3 months away.

 

[adventurous]

I think the narrative of Biden having plenty of time to mess it up with more gaffes is way oversold. Very much the same way the mainstream media keeps doubling down on the narrative that the next major Trump controversy will drive his supporters away. Neither is true.

Biden has been in clear cognitive decline for well over a year. But non-Trump voters don't seem to care. Biden managed to hold on to tepid support through Tara Reade, Covid, hundreds of gaffes.

Trump didn't all of a sudden fall behind Biden in the polls. He has been steadily losing Independents in polling every month since COVID-19 started. This happened while he actually raised his support #s among Republicans.

Biden will have to publicly answer a few tough questions, such as Hunter's scandal, possible international corruption, BLM, defunding police, riots etc. He's been ignoring those questions, but he will ultimately have to address it. That may change the political temperature significantly.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I think Trump will out bully Biden in the debates... but not sure if Trump will look smarter.

It will be fun to watch.

 

[Kenkoko]

I've always found presidential debates to be quite boring. Even the ultra hyped Hilary vs Trump in 2016 couldn't get me to watch the whole thing.

It's definitely more interesting than the state of the union where grown men&women act like trained sea lions and perform choreographed standing & clapping.

But it's still really fake with gotcha questions and rehearsed attacked lines like a reality TV show.

Presidential debates are like regular season baseball games to me, fun to watch the highlights not the entire game.

Do you guys watch the whole debate or just the highlights?

 

[adventurous]

I think Trump will out bully Biden in the debates... but not sure if Trump will look smarter.

It will be fun to watch.

Completely agree, but Trump approach works much better for an average American. That makes Trump smarter.

 

[eyephone]

I think Trump will out bully Biden in the debates... but not sure if Trump will look smarter.

It will be fun to watch.

Debates do not matter. Hilary won the debates and look what happened. lol

People care about the federal government handling of covid and the tear gas incident. (I bet if there were tanks in DC. Trump might have ordered the tanks to run the protestors over. )

 

[Kenkoko]

It boils down to do those swing States feel more virus pain by Election Day or more economic pain?

It might not even boil down to traditional swing states. It's not looking like it'd even be close. The electoral college inside straight for Trump is not likely to materialize this time.

Look at the FOX News poll (ranked A- by fivethirtyeight) that came out yesterday.

Florida: Biden 49, Trump 40
Georgia: Biden 47, Trump 45
North Carolina: Biden 47, Trump 45
Texas: Biden 45, Trump 44

Same Fox New poll showed Trump was winning every single one of these states five and a half month ago.

Most shocking to me is Floria +9 and Texas +1.