Strongest seller's market ever!!

[usctrojancpa]

Here's the crazy thing, if I were to exclude Irvine resale homes >$1m we are closer to 1-months of inventory.  Inventory and sales volume numbers don't lie, they give a picture of where supply and demand are.  This is why new home developments like Petaluma, Helena, Avalon, Trellis Court, etc have been selling so well.  Also, part of the resale inventory you see WTF asking prices...those are not real sellers in my opinion just home owners looking to find a sucker given the low level of inventory. 

The people who are Irvine buying home are strong financially and 80-90% of the offers that I have seen in the few years are from buyers who are putting more than 20% down.  The underwriting to get approved for a loan today is legit and probe deep (I speak from personal experience).  Until more inventory comes on board and we get over 3 months of resale homes on the market, don't expect prices to dip because at best they'll stay flat.

1 month of inventory!  That's extremely low.

I have a feeling that the under $1M inventory will never exceed 3 month of supply here in Irvine.

Between 2013 to 2016, over 11,000 new home were sold here in Irvine and we have about another 11,000 to go until they run out of land.  However, less than half of future new build will be homes that are under $1 million dollars.

With lack of inventory of under $1M existing homes and limited supply of future new build in this price range, that under $1M market are going to be extreme hot for a very long time.

As of today there are >100 SFRs <=$1M, almost triple that if you include attached properties. Compared to SV Irvine is drowning in inventory.

You can't compare Irvine to San Jose like that....it's like comparing apples to oranges.  There is about 1 month of resale inventory for Irvine properties under $1m which indicates a strong seller's market.  We were below that back in 2013 when we saw prices rise by about 20%.  It's not as crazy as 2013 but decent properties around comps go into escrow fast today and often times slightly above previous closed comps.  We are currently selling 250+ per month (not including new home sales) and there are only a total of 450ish active MLS listings today (all listings) so you see we are below 2 months of inventory for the entire market on average....still a strong seller's market.

Just for the sake of argument, is there a way to make that an apples to apples comparison?  What if you compare sub-$1M Irvine homes vs sub $1.5M SV homes?  i'm guessing it's not that simple, but thought i'd ask. 

I don't know the SV market very well so tough for me to say.  Is the SV market even stronger than Irvine?  Most likely as there is a lot of more tech money up there than in Irvine.  The inventory supply doesn't include the shadow inventory supply that I mentioned so the market on paper looks stronger than it really is in Irvine and definitely not as crazy as it was in 2013 hence we aren't seeing the same level of price appreciation. 

 

[OCtoSV]

Here's the crazy thing, if I were to exclude Irvine resale homes >$1m we are closer to 1-months of inventory.  Inventory and sales volume numbers don't lie, they give a picture of where supply and demand are.  This is why new home developments like Petaluma, Helena, Avalon, Trellis Court, etc have been selling so well.  Also, part of the resale inventory you see WTF asking prices...those are not real sellers in my opinion just home owners looking to find a sucker given the low level of inventory. 

The people who are Irvine buying home are strong financially and 80-90% of the offers that I have seen in the few years are from buyers who are putting more than 20% down.  The underwriting to get approved for a loan today is legit and probe deep (I speak from personal experience).  Until more inventory comes on board and we get over 3 months of resale homes on the market, don't expect prices to dip because at best they'll stay flat.

1 month of inventory!  That's extremely low.

I have a feeling that the under $1M inventory will never exceed 3 month of supply here in Irvine.

Between 2013 to 2016, over 11,000 new home were sold here in Irvine and we have about another 11,000 to go until they run out of land.  However, less than half of future new build will be homes that are under $1 million dollars.

With lack of inventory of under $1M existing homes and limited supply of future new build in this price range, that under $1M market are going to be extreme hot for a very long time.

As of today there are >100 SFRs <=$1M, almost triple that if you include attached properties. Compared to SV Irvine is drowning in inventory.

You can't compare Irvine to San Jose like that....it's like comparing apples to oranges.  There is about 1 month of resale inventory for Irvine properties under $1m which indicates a strong seller's market.  We were below that back in 2013 when we saw prices rise by about 20%.  It's not as crazy as 2013 but decent properties around comps go into escrow fast today and often times slightly above previous closed comps.  We are currently selling 250+ per month (not including new home sales) and there are only a total of 450ish active MLS listings today (all listings) so you see we are below 2 months of inventory for the entire market on average....still a strong seller's market.

Just for the sake of argument, is there a way to make that an apples to apples comparison?  What if you compare sub-$1M Irvine homes vs sub $1.5M SV homes?  i'm guessing it's not that simple, but thought i'd ask. 

I don't know the SV market very well so tough for me to say.  Is the SV market even stronger than Irvine?  Most likely as there is a lot of more tech money up there than in Irvine.  The inventory supply doesn't include the shadow inventory supply that I mentioned so the market on paper looks stronger than it really is in Irvine and definitely not as crazy as it was in 2013 hence we aren't seeing the same level of price appreciation.

95120, the best San Jose zip, has zero active listings <=$1M. While $200K+ jobs grow on trees here, NIMBYism is rampant and has been successful in curtailing development for a long time. There is slightly more inventory in the east bay but still constrained. From my vantage a mid-career professional making decent money has infinitely more options in Irvine than anywhere in the Bay area that one would want to live.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Here's the crazy thing, if I were to exclude Irvine resale homes >$1m we are closer to 1-months of inventory.  Inventory and sales volume numbers don't lie, they give a picture of where supply and demand are.  This is why new home developments like Petaluma, Helena, Avalon, Trellis Court, etc have been selling so well.  Also, part of the resale inventory you see WTF asking prices...those are not real sellers in my opinion just home owners looking to find a sucker given the low level of inventory. 

The people who are Irvine buying home are strong financially and 80-90% of the offers that I have seen in the few years are from buyers who are putting more than 20% down.  The underwriting to get approved for a loan today is legit and probe deep (I speak from personal experience).  Until more inventory comes on board and we get over 3 months of resale homes on the market, don't expect prices to dip because at best they'll stay flat.

1 month of inventory!  That's extremely low.

I have a feeling that the under $1M inventory will never exceed 3 month of supply here in Irvine.

Between 2013 to 2016, over 11,000 new home were sold here in Irvine and we have about another 11,000 to go until they run out of land.  However, less than half of future new build will be homes that are under $1 million dollars.

With lack of inventory of under $1M existing homes and limited supply of future new build in this price range, that under $1M market are going to be extreme hot for a very long time.

As of today there are >100 SFRs <=$1M, almost triple that if you include attached properties. Compared to SV Irvine is drowning in inventory.

You can't compare Irvine to San Jose like that....it's like comparing apples to oranges.  There is about 1 month of resale inventory for Irvine properties under $1m which indicates a strong seller's market.  We were below that back in 2013 when we saw prices rise by about 20%.  It's not as crazy as 2013 but decent properties around comps go into escrow fast today and often times slightly above previous closed comps.  We are currently selling 250+ per month (not including new home sales) and there are only a total of 450ish active MLS listings today (all listings) so you see we are below 2 months of inventory for the entire market on average....still a strong seller's market.

Just for the sake of argument, is there a way to make that an apples to apples comparison?  What if you compare sub-$1M Irvine homes vs sub $1.5M SV homes?  i'm guessing it's not that simple, but thought i'd ask. 

I don't know the SV market very well so tough for me to say.  Is the SV market even stronger than Irvine?  Most likely as there is a lot of more tech money up there than in Irvine.  The inventory supply doesn't include the shadow inventory supply that I mentioned so the market on paper looks stronger than it really is in Irvine and definitely not as crazy as it was in 2013 hence we aren't seeing the same level of price appreciation.

95120, the best San Jose zip, has zero active listings <=$1M. While $200K+ jobs grow on trees here, NIMBYism is rampant and has been successful in curtailing development for a long time. There is slightly more inventory in the east bay but still constrained. From my vantage a mid-career professional making decent money has infinitely more options in Irvine than anywhere in the Bay area that one would want to live.

It's a totally different market up there to say the least, the fact that they aren't building homes only adds to the crazy prices.  I don't envy the middle class folks that live up in the Bay Area.  Irvine will get a little taste of what's going on in the Bay Area when Irvine Company has run out of land to build more homes. 

 

[shahshah]

Doesn't that depend though on price appreciation. Bay Area/SV limited space to build and prices have continued to appreciate but that is because demand is so high AND every other 20 year old is cashing a large check an stock options from google, facebook, etc. Not sure if Irvine can compete with that. It seems prices may go up but that will continue to squeeze what people can get for their money. So that people who want to stay in Irvine have to look for a cheaper home. That should then drive up the cost of the bottom end of the market?

 

[mikebruin]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/34-Passion-Flower-92618/home/40025412

How strong is an offer when you accept within 2 days of listing?  And cancel your open house?  I would think it would take at least a few days to let a good number of people see the home, and maybe a few more days to send out counters for best and final?

Any thoughts/opinions from people much smarter than myself about the Irvine home market?

 

[AW]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/34-Passion-Flower-92618/home/40025412

How strong is an offer when you accept within 2 days of listing?  And cancel your open house?  I would think it would take at least a few days to let a good number of people see the home, and maybe a few more days to send out counters for best and final?

Any thoughts/opinions from people much smarter than myself about the Irvine home market?

They could be happy with the offer and don't want to deal with inconvenience (small ones, pets, elderly)...

 

[lnc]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/34-Passion-Flower-92618/home/40025412

How strong is an offer when you accept within 2 days of listing?  And cancel your open house?  I would think it would take at least a few days to let a good number of people see the home, and maybe a few more days to send out counters for best and final?

Any thoughts/opinions from people much smarter than myself about the Irvine home market?

I would guess $50k over the asking.  That's what I would do in today's market "IF" I really want that house. 

Currently this home's price point is the hottest segment here in Irvine.  And if you follow USCT's listings of similarly priced homes, always with multiple above listing offers.

Maybe this particular buyer are feed up, being consistently outbid by others in the other property they were interested, decided to offer a huge amount over the listing prices and ask the seller to cancel the open house. 

 

[paperboyNC]

I know a seller that immediately "sold" their home for full ask and were happy as can be until the buyer used a contingency to back out. They ended up getting 10+ offers at the open house and chose an all-cash buyer significantly over ask that will lose their deposit if they back out for any reason.

A lot of sellers sell cheaply for full ask without patiently waiting for the bidding war...

 

[nosuchreality]

What kind of lens is the agent using to cause such perspective distortion in small rooms like that?  It's not like a fish eye lense, were they photoshopped?  Compare picture 4 to 5, those are the same windows.  The agent is lying to me before I even go see the house, the picture makes it look huge, but that TV sitting area is what 12x12? 14x14? 

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/34-Passion-Flower-92618/home/40025412

How strong is an offer when you accept within 2 days of listing?  And cancel your open house?  I would think it would take at least a few days to let a good number of people see the home, and maybe a few more days to send out counters for best and final?

Any thoughts/opinions from people much smarter than myself about the Irvine home market?

 

[daedalus]

I'm guessing the offer included a tight expiration on top of being strong. 

 

[daedalus]

What kind of lens is the agent using to cause such perspective distortion in small rooms like that?  It's not like a fish eye lense, were they photoshopped?  Compare picture 4 to 5, those are the same windows.  The agent is lying to me before I even go see the house, the picture makes it look huge, but that TV sitting area is what 12x12? 14x14? 

I bet they used photoshop to correct the distortion from the fisheye lens.

 

[shahshah]

Why is this agent listing this property for so low?
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15401-Alsace-Cir-92604/home/4680404

 

[paydawg]

Why is this agent listing this property for so low?
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15401-Alsace-Cir-92604/home/4680404

$443/sq ft in El Camino Real is low?

 

[shahshah]

house next door almost the same sq etc sold for $934k in April seems like a large difference but maybe you're right since it was sold at 447 sqft but this property in the ranch sold for 566 sq ft earlier this year.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15082-Talley-St-92604/home/4682372

 

[Irvine Dream]

house next door almost the same sq etc sold for $934k in April seems like a large difference but maybe you're right since it was sold at 447 sqft but this property in the ranch sold for 566 sq ft earlier this year.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15082-Talley-St-92604/home/4682372

The one for $566 is a single story, always sells for much more per sq ft than 2 story,


There are several houses in North Park, West Irvine for less than the $443/sq ft, so the price for this house is definitely not low

 

[usctrojancpa]

I know a seller that immediately "sold" their home for full ask and were happy as can be until the buyer used a contingency to back out. They ended up getting 10+ offers at the open house and chose an all-cash buyer significantly over ask that will lose their deposit if they back out for any reason.

A lot of sellers sell cheaply for full ask without patiently waiting for the bidding war...

I can understand why a seller would want to get things over with quickly, but sometimes it makes sense to see how things play out after listing the home and doing open houses.

 

[shahshah]

I got an email from Redfin for April 'Market Trends' saying median list price for 92604 was $823,500 up 4.7% from March when it was $786,450. Also saying price per sqft was $443 up 0.7% from March as well. Seems that these property buyers must have gotten a pretty good deal, though maybe not the last one because of the railroad.

15201 Nantes Cir Irvine, CA 92604 sold at $298 a sq ft and
15102 Lorenat St Irvine, CA 92604 sold at $348 a sq ft
15052 Humphrey Cir Irvine, CA 92604 sold $376 a sq ft

house next door almost the same sq etc sold for $934k in April seems like a large difference but maybe you're right since it was sold at 447 sqft but this property in the ranch sold for 566 sq ft earlier this year.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15082-Talley-St-92604/home/4682372

The one for $566 is a single story, always sells for much more per sq ft than 2 story,


There are several houses in North Park, West Irvine for less than the $443/sq ft, so the price for this house is definitely not low

 

[Hugo Township]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/34-Passion-Flower-92618/home/40025412

How strong is an offer when you accept within 2 days of listing?  And cancel your open house?  I would think it would take at least a few days to let a good number of people see the home, and maybe a few more days to send out counters for best and final?

Any thoughts/opinions from people much smarter than myself about the Irvine home market?

I would guess $50k over the asking.  That's what I would do in today's market "IF" I really want that house. 

Currently this home's price point is the hottest segment here in Irvine.  And if you follow USCT's listings of similarly priced homes, always with multiple above listing offers.

Maybe this particular buyer are feed up, being consistently outbid by others in the other property they were interested, decided to offer a huge amount over the listing prices and ask the seller to cancel the open house.

Just to close the loop, the house didn't sell for $50k above asking. It sold for 8k under! WTF

 

[potsticker]

Looks like 14 day close and all cash. Could've been some concessions on the backend too. Depending on the situation that the seller was in, such as a contingent purchase, they may have needed a quick sale.