USCTrojanCPA said:
Fxguy said:
renter1 said:
Pavilion park is a bunch of new listings listing prices way lower than they have been last year some $435 a sq foot the downturn has begun
Has it though? I'm not sure how accurate or good the data is on Trulia but you could argue that there is positive momentum for the real estate market. Fed signaling hikes, 10 year treasuries in new higher ranges since November maybe encouraging buyers to jump into to the market before the rates go up even higher.
Also, existing home sales and new home sales were up nicely with existing hitting best levels in 10 years! Anticipated tax cuts next year, so families are willing to make an investment in a home because of higher expected disposable income. I think this can continue for another year or two...no data to back up my claims, maybe more. I'm really interested in this because I'd love to be the lucky guy who sells at the right time before prices come down, then buy again!
As far as Irvine and data, looks like 1 BD condos are the perfect investment - at least three months ago. Prices are up double digit percentages and renting them out seems too be good as well. Inventory is low?
What do you guys think?
I'm going to add a little color and detail to your post. First off, resale inventory levels have DROPPED since Jan so we are going in the wrong direction on inventory. Back in late Jan we add a little over 400 active MLS listing and as of today we were down to 380 which is right around 2 months of inventory (the low point of inventory will be that week between Christmas and New Years day and that amount was about 315). So we are going in the wrong direction when it comes to inventory which is becoming a tailwind for sellers and there are more and more multiple offer situations out there, especially on sub $1m listings that are priced right. In my opinion, inventory levels are the one big thing to watch as an indicator of where prices may go in the near future. As a point of reference, back in 2013 when we had the big 20% run-up in prices there was about 1 month of inventory of resale homes on the market (low point was 3 weeks of inventory).
On the rental front, I personally witnessed an 8-10% rental price increase from 2015 to 2016 but on my own personal rentals and my rental listings. On 2 of my rental listings in 2016 I got $100 a month more than the asking rental amount, mainly because I had 6-10 rental applications in a week. Good rentals go off the market faster than good for sale properties because the rental market is that strong today (driven by the strong macro/job market).
USC, in your opinion, is there a bifurcated real estate market in Irvine right now?
I feel like large SFRs, 1.5M+ price point seems pretty cold with lots and lots of inventory sitting for a long time. I'm pretty sure that if I tried to sell my primary home right now, I'd lose money (closed about a year ago), and there's also no way I'd be able to rent it out and cover my PITIA cost, even after a 40%+ downpayment. Luckily, I don't have any plans to move for the next 15-20 years.
On the other hand, I recently bought a 2/2 condo for my parents, and that market was insane, lots of properties going at list price, very short time on market, rents now around $2500 a month in that category, whereas you can rent a 4BR house 3 times the size for less than double that monthly rent.
