New homes sales in Irvine slowing down lately?

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pricedoutJay

New member
I visited several model homes this weekend and noticed that model homes were not crowded at all.  In two places, I was the only one while I was browsing.

I also noticed that even though some popular plans were sold out in general, the price either stop going up or came back down to initial release (in case of a Portola Spring model home).  So do you also see this trend or is it just me?  I'm not predicting a bubble bursting or price crashing 20, 30%, but I definitely see slowing down of sales and price leveling off/decreasing. 

While talking to sales folks and really looking at new homes and actual cost (especially mello roos and high HOAs), I am surely leaning to a resale homes (yes they have their own hidden costs).  I always thought that many new homes are luring most of the buyers and resale homes will have tough time getting what they are asking for, but I guess that's not really the case any more.  Any thought?

One more thing.  Why do sales folks tend to straight out lie or make up stories?  I caught a person (I found out afterward, not telling him/her in person) telling me the price of their homes were going up $5k to $10k every phase for 5 or 6 times.  When I checked, the currently available homes were either same or lower than initial prices.  One of the reasons why I don't trust sales people and don't really want to deal with as much as possible in general.
 
It certainly has slowed down.  Money from China harder to launder over?  ;)  Also.. prices can't keep going up at the pace they were.. pricing out first time buyers and even move up buyers.  With an influx of inventory from a saturated market.. look for Irvine to mellow out or drop slightly.  Bubble burst?  Maybe I don't know.
 
pricedoutJay said:
One more thing.  Why do sales folks tend to straight out lie or make up stories?  I caught a person (I found out afterward, not telling him/her in person) telling me the price of their homes were going up $5k to $10k every phase for 5 or 6 times.  When I checked, the currently available homes were either same or lower than initial prices.  One of the reasons why I don't trust sales people and don't really want to deal with as much as possible in general.
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Well, they're sales people. ;). You have to make sure you're comparing apples to apples with phase releases.  Some releases will have lot premiums for bigger lots or more desirable lots for a variety of reasons (driveway, corner, etc.). Some lots are much smaller than previous lots, so the base price might be less.  In general, base prices won't come down, they'll just offer design center upgrades.  I don't think we're in desperate times yet where builders will start slashing prices.
 
For Orchard Hills, some of the recently released homes might have lower or comparable  prices with the earliest phases because the earliest phases had room options pre-selected and therefore included in the price of the home, even though the base price of the home is less than the current price. Additionally, as OCgasman says, there may be lot premiums that have to be considered as well.
 
I think it's the supply that has increased more than demand going down. A year and a half ago:

Pavilion Park - not yet for sale
Cypress Village - not yet for sale
Orchard Hills - not yet for sale
Portola Springs Enclaves 3, 4, 6 - not yet for sale
Baker's Ranch - not yet for sale

All that was available was:
Portola Springs Casero Model homes (way overpriced)
Stonegate - a few developments with 100s of people on the waitlists
Woodbury - One $1mm+ development

New home supply is 100X higher than it was a year and a half ago.
 
If we take a look at housing market out side of Irvine, at the national level, overall new SFR sales are also slowing down. 

The sales pace of new single-family homes fell to a four-month low in July, missing analysts? estimates, according to a government report released Monday that may add to worries about the housing market?s recovery.
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But...
While housing data is likely to remain choppy over the coming months, with affordability remaining high, mortgage rates extremely low, and labor market activity accelerating, we expect the housing market trajectory to continue gradually improving,? Gennadiy Goldberg, U.S. strategist at TD Securities, wrote in a research note.
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/another-worrying-sign-as-sales-of-new-homes-slow-2014-08-25
 
lnc said:
If we take a look at housing market out side of Irvine, at the national level, overall new SFR sales are also slowing down. 

The sales pace of new single-family homes fell to a four-month low in July, missing analysts? estimates, according to a government report released Monday that may add to worries about the housing market?s recovery.
Click to expand...
But...
While housing data is likely to remain choppy over the coming months, with affordability remaining high, mortgage rates extremely low, and labor market activity accelerating, we expect the housing market trajectory to continue gradually improving,? Gennadiy Goldberg, U.S. strategist at TD Securities, wrote in a research note.
Click to expand...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/another-worrying-sign-as-sales-of-new-homes-slow-2014-08-25
Click to expand...

The writing is on the wall. Private equities have recently selling the rental homes.
 
OS said:
the Chinese government may forcibly repatriate this money. No decision has been made yet, but if the Chinese government gets serious about this, not just will the demand evaporate, the market could be flooded with must-sell inventory from Chinese nationals.
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Some how I'm secretly wish this would happen. >:D

Me and PS9 might have a good shot of getting that La Vita plan 4 at 20% discount.
 
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