www.doctorhousingbubble.com
I refinanced into a 1.99% 15 year loan in the summer of 2021. I don’t see a scenario in which we ever sell this home. We will just pass it down to our kids.
Yeah, the preselected options is about $100k, so that means the bonus room is $250k? That's a bit ridiculous.
If we're just comparing Azul Plan 2 to Olivewood Plan 2, then there's perhaps an explanation. In the first release Olivewood Plan 2 was a view lot. In the second release, both Plans 2 were priced around $2.5M, and in the last release, Plan 2 was another view lot.
People complain about unnecessary Mello-Roos at GP, not property taxes. Homes at Altair sell for $3M to $4M. How much property taxes are they going to pay? For a $3M home, they're not paying $30k, but somewhere close to $45k. Also, a $2.4M home in other parts of Irvine, you only pay $28k, not $30k. MR for other parts of Irvine (EW, OH, PS) is fixed at $4k.
Not sure how you are getting $45K number from. If someone pays same $2.4M in Altair for comparison sake you are paying $24K plus $11K extra so it would be $35K in property taxes. You cannot compare a $2.4M value house to a $4M value house as based on tax rate they will pay higher property taxes.
yes. renting making the most sense; my napkin math shows rent would be half of the PITI (20% down) or less for houses at this price range.
You mean one can live in Artesia or Norwalk and send your kid to Whitney? What a edu-hack!We've already observed price dip in the previous cycle, which Irvine was not immune to. But for certain desirable areas the dip was around 1/3 (more for condos) vs 1/2 for lesser desirable areas of LA/OC. Those hoping for big drops in desirable areas will be disappointed.
I'll use Cerritos as an example:
The foreign buyer argument –Cerritos California has 82 percent of households listed as homeowners. Median income of $82,000 does not support city median price of $540,000. If it did, you would not see homes falling by $231,000 in a few short years.
California home prices in many cities are now poised for a second correction. The cities that will experience this change in the next few years are in mid-tier and upper-tier locations. With no summer bounce and sales falling, the economic pendulum is swinging to lower prices since incomes
Cerritos is considered a desirable area for many Asians. The property cited was sold for $675k near bubble peak in 2006, dropping to $450K near bubble cycle button in 2011, approx. 1/3 drop from peak. There were some potential buyers then who thought the price would continue to decline, but the reality is that prices rebounded after 2012 and that house is now valued at $1 million. If we go into another RE down cycle from 2024 I'd expect this house to dip down to $650k-$700K at bottom, good luck fighting against 30 other bidders. Yup, I was there in 2012 trying to buy a house in Cerritos and was up against 20-30 other bidders every time. Some sellers received over 30 bids and just stopped accepting new bids.
People like to blame FCB's but it's more than that. Cerritos today - and in 2012, was less attractive to FCB's than Irvine. But many owners in Cerritos are lifers who don't want to sell, enabled by prop 13 with low taxes. So adding low inventory to the relatively high desirability factor, prevents the home price from dropping as much vs other parts of LA/OC county like as Norwalk, Downey, & Santa Ana where homes dropped 1/2 from peak in previous down cycle.
Because Cerritos has so many lifers, young families can't afford to move in and the schools are running short on students. So if you live in nearby "less desirable" cities you can now send your kids to schools in Cerritos. @_@?
This is how I envision Irvine down the road.
Dude - why are banks going to magically compress spreads that are already 250bps over the 10 yr right now for the best borrowers? 4% rates were before SVB went belly up over duration risk from low interest jumbo mortgages. I know a CRE license carries no fiduciary reqs but you're doing your clients a disservice if you're telling them with all your knowledge and experience and degrees and understanding of Irvine RE and the mortgage markets that they'll ever see a 4 handle; that or you really don't have a clue as to how the Fed is managing their balance sheet and how likely that dot plot is to end up really happening. Even if Powell actually comes through with an election year rate cut for Crooked Joe mortgage lenders aren't going to drop their spreads. If anything I see them going higher. Basel 3 is going to be very impactful here as well.
I said $3M, not $2.4M, because you're not going to find any Altair homes at $2.4M. Still, we can do apples to apples comparison, if you like. A $3M home at PS (most of new constructions at PS are going to reach this price soon, if not already) will bring $34k in property taxes while a $3M home at Altair will bring $45k in property taxes.
The only issue with renting is that you don't own equity. And at this price range, 20% down won't do. It will require 40% to 50% down. However, at the current interest rates, renting is probably still half of the PITI even with 40% down.
