My prediction

[hello]

Home prices peaked or about to peak very soon.


1.  affordability is crap - no wage increase.
2.  interest rates going up - affordability even worse
3.  chinese stock markets in free fall - 30% drop in last couple weeks.
4.  More difficulty for chinese to bring in money
4.  lowest cash buyer rate since 2009 - less chinese buying, less investors buying because houses overpriced
5.  inventory moving up. sales moving down which is always precursor to dropping prices. 
6.  sales down trending in mid buying season
7.  irvine/tustin/lake forest still putting up new homes

summary:  global economy in dumps, wages low, affordability is crap, more homes on market, less buyers = price drops.  The question is how much of a drop and for how long will this last... 

 

[AW]

Or it has the opposite effect, China's stock market crash would mean everyone cashing out, and taking money to invest in u.s real estate which already is happening.

We'll see soon enough, interest rates has already crept up, for all those barely prequal will not be able to for the next phases or developments, so if everything is selling out, foreign buyers remains strong

 

[meccos12]

Or it has the opposite effect, China's stock market crash would mean everyone cashing out, and taking money to invest in u.s real estate which already is happening.

We'll see soon enough, interest rates has already crept up, for all those barely prequal will not be able to for the next phases or developments, so if everything is selling out, foreign buyers remains strong

I would disagree.  Yes they are selling and cashing out, but at 30% less than they put in.  I dont think they would cash out this money and funnel it into another overpriced asset.  I believe there is a 50K limit that can be wired currently which makes it difficult for chinese to bring money in (although I know its still being done, its much harder now).  Yes, they are already investing in real estate in US, but I do believe it has slowed down dramatically. 

Yes it will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next couple years.  I believe we are going to see a slow decline over the next few years at least...  Just my two cents.