Market Top

[irvinehomeowner]

Still not sure how I?m making tangential arguments.

In the Housing Anlaysis thread, another member posted how inventory was high yet prices are still high in places like Seattle.

As CV has stated, there are other things that can be done to prevent your tipping point. The last crash was supposed to devastate Irvine but it didn?t. Kick the can kept the foreclosure tsunami from ever happening, record low interest rates kept the Option ARM tidal wave from hitting land, etc etc.

As I said, this may be the top, but I don?t see a crash short of a zombacalypse. And if that doesn?t happen, what do you think will happen next spring/summer?

Even during the lows of 08/09, didn?t prices still ebb/flow with the same cycles?

I guess that?s why I?ve questioned what type of slowdown people are taking about. The last time, there was evidence of a bubble because of the shady financing, but what is the inflator now? Inflated stock market? Consumer over confidence?

Not sure if you think I?m being tangential here but if people are predicting a crash, doesn?t there have to be proof this is a bubble? Or am I asking the wrong questions?

 

[meccos12]

In the Housing Anlaysis thread, another member posted how inventory was high yet prices are still high in places like Seattle.

Bad example to use.  Do you realize what is happening in Seattle right now?  Sales are plummeting, inventory is skyrocketing and they are actually seeing prices fall now.  This is the beginning so who knows how bad it will get there.  Based on the trend, it doesnt seem like it will get better any time soon. 

The last crash was supposed to devastate Irvine but it didn?t. Kick the can kept the foreclosure tsunami from ever happening, record low interest rates kept the Option ARM tidal wave from hitting land, etc etc.

What does devastate mean to you?  The last crash didn't hurt Irvine?  You can make an argument it didnt hurt Irvine as much as other places like Riverside, but thats about it.  I dont have data right now but im pretty sure Irvine median prices dropped about 200K from previous peak.  Someone please correct me on this if I am off. 

As I said, this may be the top, but I don?t see a crash short of a zombacalypse. And if that doesn?t happen, what do you think will happen next spring/summer?

Even during the lows of 08/09, didn?t prices still ebb/flow with the same cycles?

Strawman. No one said there was going to be a crash. 
Are you insinuating this slowdown is seasonal again?  Ive asked numerous times but never get a direct yes or no answer.

Not sure if you think I?m being tangential here but if people are predicting a crash, doesn?t there have to be proof this is a bubble? Or am I asking the wrong questions?

Who are these people who predicted a crash?  You make arguments against claims that were never made... classic strawman.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Strawman strawman strawman.

Is that how you converse in real life? Or is that too personal a question?

Just respond to my answers and I?ll clarify what I mean.

If you?re just going throw the default internet counter at me then it?s not going to make the discussion any better.

As for your other questions, by devastate I meant the predicted drop of over 50%. And while some homes may have dropped in 200k in value, others dropped less, esp the ones I was looking at.

As for my definition of crash and who is predicting it, that?s what I?ve been asking. I didn?t say you predicted a crash or even said how much.  But at the same time, length of time and how low are pertinent to the discussion.

If market top means that prices will only be 5% lower for the next two years, is that really a big deal?

I?ve said this multiple times, if the drop in prices isn?t 20% or more, what are we talking about?

And yes, this could still be seasonal. If prices go back up next spring/summer from whatever low we see this winter, even if it?s not as high as it was this year... what do we call that?

You keep asking me to say it?s seasonal definitively but I keep telling you that I?m not sure. Data that you have provided indicates it may not be but real estate, esp in Irvine is very hard to predict.

I forget, have you said how much the drop is going to be? What does your data say? If this is the top, what is the bottom?

 

[meccos12]

Strawman strawman strawman.

Yes you are the king of this.  If you could make a case against what I actually do say, it would be a better discussion.

As for your other questions, by devastate I meant the predicted drop of over 50%. And while some homes may have dropped in 200k in value, others dropped less, esp the ones I was looking at.

Who predicted the >50% drop?  No one is talking about this but you.  This is what I mean by strawman arguments you make.
No one made this argument, but you insinuate people did by bringing it up.

200K was the drop in median prices (someone please check the exact number).  Just because the houses YOU were looking at didnt drop by 200K doesnt mean the median price drop didnt drop that amount.  Hence its the MEDIAN price.  I really cant believe I had to explain that.

As for my definition of crash and who is predicting it, that?s what I?ve been asking. I didn?t say you predicted a crash or even said how much.  But at the same time, length of time and how low are pertinent to the discussion.

You specifically insinuated in the previous post that people were claiming a crash, but you cant state who.  Why?  Because you made this crap up.  You are the only one who is talking about a crash.  This is the classic strawman you are guilty of and you dont even see it.  You should argue with yourself, instead of trying to pin a housing meltdown on people who are simply claiming they see a significant slowdown.

And yes, this could still be seasonal.

You keep asking me to say it?s seasonal definitively but I keep telling you that I?m not sure. Data that you have provided indicates it may not be

Im simply asking you to clarify your position.  In previous posts you keep insinuating this is seasonal yet you wont take a position on it.  I have a firm position in that these are NOT seasonal changes.  I feel the data backs that up. 

If market top means that prices will only be 5% lower for the next two years, is that really a big deal?

I?ve said this multiple times, if the drop in prices isn?t 20% or more, what are we talking about?

I forget, have you said how much the drop is going to be? What does your data say? If this is the top, what is the bottom?


but real estate, esp in Irvine is very hard to predict.

As you say, real estate is hard to predict so why are you trying so hard to force everyone to give you exact % reduction and a timeframe, which we all know is impossible to predict?  You started a separate thread for that so keep it there where its relevant. 

The point here is that housing numbers are slowing drastically and we are likely at the tipping point, hence my call for a market top.  Whether prices drop 5 or 10 or 20 or 50% is just a guess for anyone.  If anyone was sure, they wouldnt be posting here but rather putting their money where their mouth is.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Just because you say it?s strawman doesn?t mean it is.

That?s the defense of someone who doesn?t want to bother discussing and just wants to yell over the conversation.

Do a search on IHB (Irvine Housng Blog) and you will see people claiming 50% drops during the last crash.

As for now, you just don?t get what I?m saying. That?s why I?m asking how big is this slowdown. If it?s small, 5-10%, then to me that could still be seasonal if prices go back up. If it?s in the 20% range, then posters agreed that could be defined as a crash. And if the slowdown is not that, then what are we talking about.

Instead of trying so hard to paint every thing I post as ?classic strawman? why don?t you read what I?m saying and try to understand my side of it rather than looking for some evidence of how I?m making things up.

The irony is thick here, when you claimed I did that to you  and I explained my stance, all your responses have been exactly the same type of response. For one who doesn?t like it when people are ?attacked?, your responses are quite accusatory.

But whatever. i understand the nature of the Internet, and without immediate feedback, tone and intent can be misconstrued.

It seems you agree that you can?t predict real estate so no one can come up with an exact percentage or length of time, so why are you pressing me so hard on a definitive stance on seasonality? Is ?I?m not sure? not a good enough answer? You think it isn?t seasonal, that?s fine... I?m still on the fence because as I?ve said multiple times, seasonality is the default.

BTW: There are other posters who actually disagree with your market top call, why aren?t you responding to them with the same fervor?

 

[meccos12]

Just because you say it?s strawman doesn?t mean it is.

When one makes an argument against claims never made, that is the definition of a strawman.

Do a search on IHB (Irvine Housng Blog) and you will see people claiming 50% drops during the last crash.

What does a claim made by OTHER people on ANOTHER blog 10 freaking years ago have anything to do with THIS thread?

It seems you agree that you can?t predict real estate so no one can come up with an exact percentage or length of time, so why are you pressing me so hard on a definitive stance on seasonality? Is ?I?m not sure? not a good enough answer? You think it isn?t seasonal, that?s fine... I?m still on the fence because as I?ve said multiple times, seasonality is the default.

Predicting future prices is futile, which is why I dont understand your obsession for asking people to predict future price drops.  However predicting future prices is completely different from evaluating current data, which is all I have been doing.

I press you for that answer because on multiple occasions you implied seasonality yet you wont admit it.  You say you are not sure now, but you have been implying that this is seasonal on numerous occasions to counter my points. 

BTW: There are other posters who actually disagree with your market top call, why aren?t you responding to them with the same fervor?

I dont have a problem with differing opinions as many othes have points to support their views.  However you make claims without any compelling evidence or reasons and never answer any pertinent questions.  Furthermore I would have stopped responding to you but when I asked to stop the bickering your response was

When you stop I?ll stop.

LIke I said before, lets stop the bickering.  If you have important things to post please feel free to do so.  I will do the same as I expect coming data to further support the claims that I have been previously making.  If I see contrary evidence, I would be happy to admit and acknowledge that. 

 

[eyephone]

Meccos12: don?t worry about him. This is not the first time he has pulled this stunt. I kind of feel sorry for him.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Meccos12: don?t worry about him. This is not the first time he has pulled this stunt. I kind of feel sorry for him.

See... this is why I refer to you how I do. Because you post zero value to *certain* discussions (not all). What does "feeling sorry for him" have to do with anything being discussed here?

As for "stunt", what are you referring to? Because I actually try to engage in discussions with other posters? Because I challenge people to back up what they post? Because I'm asking questions that some people don't know the answer to?

Despite what meccos thinks of my posts, I actually put some effort into them rather than regurgitating the obvious.

 

[eyephone]

Meccos12: don?t worry about him. This is not the first time he has pulled this stunt. I kind of feel sorry for him.

See... this is why I refer to you how I do. Because you post zero value to *certain* discussions (not all). What does "feeling sorry for him" have to do with anything being discussed here?

As for "stunt", what are you referring to? Because I actually try to engage in discussions with other posters? Because I challenge people to back up what they post? Because I'm asking questions that some people don't know the answer to?

Despite what meccos thinks of my posts, I actually put some effort into them rather than regurgitating the obvious.

You are not challenging people. Yeah you are engaging people I?m not sure in a good way. People have been putting up backup to support their position. (Actual statistics, articles, graphs) I don?t know what you have for your support.

You put efforts to get into arguments with a lot of people. (I guess you have the right to do that) It?s really funny how you mention my name into other conversations when I?m not part of it. I?m setting the record straight that your continuous attack on me and others are baseless.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Just because you say it?s strawman doesn?t mean it is.

When one makes an argument against claims never made, that is the definition of a strawman.

That's because you look for that. That's not what I'm doing, I'm simply replying to what you are posting. If I misunderstood what you are saying, then please clarify.

For example, the Housing Analysis thread you said "opinions do not matter". My response was that they do and that data alone isn't what people come to forums for. Then you went off saying I strawman'd you because I said you said only data matters. That in fact was a strawman because that's not what I said, what I said was that opinions are valuable and data alone isn't enough. That's why I said "This doesn't make sense to me" and why I asked about your profession because there are many jobs that rely on opinions of data.

So my response was 1) to tell you that opinions actually do matter and 2) to clarify from you if that's what you really think because 3) you started this "Market Top" thread with just your opinion and no data.

You're accusing me like I'm analyzing your posts, figuring out a way to skew it so that you can't defend it (the strawman) and then making things up without any background. Why would I go through the effort of doing that? It's a waste of time, I'm just trying to answer your questions. Notice that I'm not saying you are wrong or telling you how thickskulled you are, just answering what you are asking. If I misunderstand you, point it out... instead of "AAAAAAAAHHHHH... you're such a strawman master!!!!".

Do a search on IHB (Irvine Housng Blog) and you will see people claiming 50% drops during the last crash.

What does a claim made by OTHER people on ANOTHER blog 10 freaking years ago have anything to do with THIS thread?

Uh... so should I claim strawman here? Maybe you don't know the history of IHB, TI and myself. This forum came from the IHB forums which were part of the IHB blog. Back then, there were people, even Larry himself, claiming that the data says that to get back to fundamental pricing, Irvine prices have to drop by 50%. Later that was corrected to 40%... but even that didn't happen. I argued back then that I just couldn't see Irvine prices dropping that low. 20% was something I could see... but even then, much of housing stock that I was shopping for, never even dropped that low. So despite what the data said, the Irvine market didn't follow what people were suggesting would happen.

So I mentioned it because it's about history and the non-fundamental behavior of Irvine pricing. If you don't think that's relevant to this discussion, then that's your opinion.

But remember, you asked me to clarify what I meant by "devastated" and when I did, you dismissed it.

It seems you agree that you can?t predict real estate so no one can come up with an exact percentage or length of time, so why are you pressing me so hard on a definitive stance on seasonality? Is ?I?m not sure? not a good enough answer? You think it isn?t seasonal, that?s fine... I?m still on the fence because as I?ve said multiple times, seasonality is the default.

Predicting future prices is futile, which is why I dont understand your obsession for asking people to predict future price drops.  However predicting future prices is completely different from evaluating current data, which is all I have been doing.

Yes, I understand that. But at the same time... what value is it then to call "market top" or to say (not you) "a slowdown is coming"? Without other things like "timeline" (which you agree was important) and "quantity" (which I think is important), it makes it tough for a buyer to make a decision for themselves.

So when someone like eyephone says to wait... I question that advice and ask.. "wait for what?". If it's only 5%, then a buyer may not want to wait. If it's more like 20%, then I understand that advice... but at the same time, a buyer may still not want to wait. You disagree with me on that and that's fine. Do you see me pestering you one why you disagree? I understand your position. You asked me why I have my opinion and then you dismiss is with "Oh, those are just the benefits of home ownership" but to me that is important.

I press you for that answer because on multiple occasions you implied seasonality yet you wont admit it.  You say you are not sure now, but you have been implying that this is seasonal on numerous occasions to counter my points. 

So is this another strawman? I've explained my answer on seasonality several times now.

You keep saying I implied it or claimed it but I kept telling you that I questioned if this slowdown isn't seasonal because "SEASONALITY IS THE DEFAULT!!". Seasonality implies itself... just like I don't decide when it's going to be fall, winter or whatever. Go back and look at all the charts for the last 30 years. Even during the last 2 crashes, sales volume and/or prices go up and down with the seasons.

You're not even taking into account the timeline. When eyephone first posted his thread, I asked... "Isn't this just seasonal?". Then his answers were something like "It's happening everywhere", and my response was "Uh... seasonality happens everywhere". That's why I asked for more data to show me that it's different. Now you come along and at first, just said "The data says it's different!" and you referred to it but it wasn't until later that you actually posted the charts. That's when I said, "Okay... I guess it could be different. But... I'm still on the fence because in the past, data has been wrong... especially when it comes to Irvine (which again, is why I mentioned the predictions from 10 years ago).

Does that make sense now? Or am I not explaining myself correctly?

BTW: There are other posters who actually disagree with your market top call, why aren?t you responding to them with the same fervor?

I dont have a problem with differing opinions as many othes have points to support their views.  However you make claims without any compelling evidence or reasons and never answer any pertinent questions.

I think this is an unfair assessment. I've answered every question you've asked. I went through the trouble of quoting them so that you would know what I'm referring to. Unlike what you've done, I don't cut out parts so that it seems to favor your position. You can see everything as I post it.

If you don't think my claims have compelling evidence, that's fine, that's your opinion. Just like I didn't think eyephone's posts didn't have compelling evidence. But unlike eyephone, at least I went through the effort of explaining my reasons insomuch as detailing my experience during that last crash. And it's not lost on me that you think that my experience/opinion doesn't hold very much weight but that's what I'm giving you. Other people seem to find value in what I am saying... especially those who have been on IHB/TI long enough to appreciate my position.

Please tell me what pertinent questions have I not answered?

Furthermore I would have stopped responding to you but when I asked to stop the bickering your response was

When you stop I?ll stop.

Strawman? This is what you actually said:

You dont want to drop the bickering and move on it seems. 
Lets keep the discussion pertinent recent housing.
Id love to hear your thoughts on the most recent chart I just posted. 

This is why I say intent and tone is difficult to asses on the Internet:

Your first sentence is:
"You dont want to stop bickering and move on it seems"

Then you follow it up with:
"Lets keep the discussion pertinent recent housing.
Id love to hear your thoughts on the most recent chart I just posted. "

So you basically make a veiled insult and then said let's stop. Or at least that's how it came off to me.

I don't know about you... but I think my response of "I will when you will" was rather appropriate.

Like I said before, lets stop the bickering.  If you have important things to post please feel free to do so.  I will do the same as I expect coming data to further support the claims that I have been previously making.  If I see contrary evidence, I would be happy to admit and acknowledge that. 

See... this is how you ask me to stop bickering.

And again, remember... I agree with you that this is probably market top... but not just because of the data you have posted, more because I think prices have reached an non-affordability range. However, every time I think prices are no longer affordable, they go up again. People thought 2013-14 was a peak, but it kept going... and then quite a few people thought summer 2017 was peak... and it was, until 2018.

Also, when it comes to prices, there are other factors to be considered other than sales volume. As I said repeatedly, there has to be another significant event that will either prevent people from buying, or make people sell at lower prices. On Zillow, there is a chart for Irvine Health, and it basically breaks down 2 metrics, number of days on market (which has keeps moving downward) and number of foreclosures, which to me is significant:

There has to be reasons for people to sell for lower prices. This is why I said there are many factors to hold up Irvine pricing because a) so many new communities have opened in the past 10 years and b) herd effect will keep them from listing lower than what they bought for. So if that holds, and people don't sell... then a significant factor is those who are forced to sell via foreclosures... and as I also mentioned, that's not going to happen that much in Irvine because of the FCBs and the WFBs (well-financed buyers).

Now you may say that's not hard data, but again, as I did 10 years ago, I use a number of things to come up with my opinion... data, experience and non-fundamental factors.

Going forward, I'm going to try to word my response to you so you don't see them as strawman but I think there has to be some effort on your side to see that I'm really trying to just answer the questions you ask me.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Irvine and OC real estate resilience is astonishing.

So let?s see what is up against Irvine housing market:

1) you got the (SALT) deduction limitation
2) you got risen rate
3) you got a long upward run in housing cycle
4) you got expensives and leveling homes prices in all class.
5) you got some stubborn sellers listing WTF listing
6) you got renters demand rental costs regulation (prop 10)
7) Property Tax collection for OC is at all time high.
8?you got season change in buy and sell.


So if this is not enough or not completely document here that you want to add I will than you for it.

I would thought that a few of these items would dents the Irvine housing pricing starting in 2018, but records have shown, Irvine housing held values and continue to be resiliency of price drop panic to now. If anything the bidding war is no longer exist thanks God for that.

Depends on which color you want to paint for Irvine housing. I see bright and vibrant and long lasting fortune in Irvine.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Meccos12: don?t worry about him. This is not the first time he has pulled this stunt. I kind of feel sorry for him.

See... this is why I refer to you how I do. Because you post zero value to *certain* discussions (not all). What does "feeling sorry for him" have to do with anything being discussed here?

As for "stunt", what are you referring to? Because I actually try to engage in discussions with other posters? Because I challenge people to back up what they post? Because I'm asking questions that some people don't know the answer to?

Despite what meccos thinks of my posts, I actually put some effort into them rather than regurgitating the obvious.

You are not challenging people. Yeah you are engaging people I?m not sure in a good way. People have been putting up backup to support their position. (Actual statistics, articles, graphs) I don?t know what you have for your support.

You put efforts to get into arguments with a lot of people. (I guess you have the right to do that) It?s really funny how you mention my name into other conversations when I?m not part of it. I?m setting the record straight that your continuous attack on me and others are baseless.

Baseless? Quote my posts that don't have sufficient backing. It's Monday and I'm still waiting for your post from Friday.

When I respond to your posts, you respond with "Dude, you're a joke". How is that supporting your position? When I ask you to give me reasons, I respond to it with a question and then you don't say anything.

There have been a number of times where you have insulted my finances and my character so excuse me if I'm a little short when it comes to dealing with you. But you reap what you sow.

And again, I actually admire some of the stuff you are posting in the political threads, but I need a bit more from you when it comes to real estate. Not the "follow the herd" rhetoric... I'd like some original thought. If you've been reading between the lines, there are actually a number of posts where I detail some of the things you've posted hoping you would expand on them but you don't.

And per meccos, let's get back to the topic at hand. I assume you agree this is market top? Why?

 

[meccos12]

Meccos12: don?t worry about him. This is not the first time he has pulled this stunt. I kind of feel sorry for him.

See... this is why I refer to you how I do. Because you post zero value to *certain* discussions (not all). What does "feeling sorry for him" have to do with anything being discussed here?

As for "stunt", what are you referring to? Because I actually try to engage in discussions with other posters? Because I challenge people to back up what they post? Because I'm asking questions that some people don't know the answer to?

Despite what meccos thinks of my posts, I actually put some effort into them rather than regurgitating the obvious.

You are not challenging people. Yeah you are engaging people I?m not sure in a good way. People have been putting up backup to support their position. (Actual statistics, articles, graphs) I don?t know what you have for your support.

You put efforts to get into arguments with a lot of people. (I guess you have the right to do that) It?s really funny how you mention my name into other conversations when I?m not part of it. I?m setting the record straight that your continuous attack on me and others are baseless.

Exactly this. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Meccos12: don?t worry about him. This is not the first time he has pulled this stunt. I kind of feel sorry for him.

See... this is why I refer to you how I do. Because you post zero value to *certain* discussions (not all). What does "feeling sorry for him" have to do with anything being discussed here?

As for "stunt", what are you referring to? Because I actually try to engage in discussions with other posters? Because I challenge people to back up what they post? Because I'm asking questions that some people don't know the answer to?

Despite what meccos thinks of my posts, I actually put some effort into them rather than regurgitating the obvious.

You are not challenging people. Yeah you are engaging people I?m not sure in a good way. People have been putting up backup to support their position. (Actual statistics, articles, graphs) I don?t know what you have for your support.

You put efforts to get into arguments with a lot of people. (I guess you have the right to do that) It?s really funny how you mention my name into other conversations when I?m not part of it. I?m setting the record straight that your continuous attack on me and others are baseless.

Exactly this. 

I guess you haven't read my post yet.

 

[eyephone]

Meccos12: don?t worry about him. This is not the first time he has pulled this stunt. I kind of feel sorry for him.

See... this is why I refer to you how I do. Because you post zero value to *certain* discussions (not all). What does "feeling sorry for him" have to do with anything being discussed here?

As for "stunt", what are you referring to? Because I actually try to engage in discussions with other posters? Because I challenge people to back up what they post? Because I'm asking questions that some people don't know the answer to?

Despite what meccos thinks of my posts, I actually put some effort into them rather than regurgitating the obvious.

You are not challenging people. Yeah you are engaging people I?m not sure in a good way. People have been putting up backup to support their position. (Actual statistics, articles, graphs) I don?t know what you have for your support.

You put efforts to get into arguments with a lot of people. (I guess you have the right to do that) It?s really funny how you mention my name into other conversations when I?m not part of it. I?m setting the record straight that your continuous attack on me and others are baseless.

Baseless? Quote my posts that don't have sufficient backing. It's Monday and I'm still waiting for your post from Friday.

When I respond to your posts, you respond with "Dude, you're a joke". How is that supporting your position? When I ask you to give me reasons, I respond to it with a question and then you don't say anything.

There have been a number of times where you have insulted my finances and my character so excuse me if I'm a little short when it comes to dealing with you. But you reap what you sow.

And again, I actually admire some of the stuff you are posting in the political threads, but I need a bit more from you when it comes to real estate. Not the "follow the herd" rhetoric... I'd like some original thought. If you've been reading between the lines, there are actually a number of posts where I detail some of the things you've posted hoping you would expand on them but you don't.

And per meccos, let's get back to the topic at hand. I assume you agree this is market top? Why?

Go back on topic after you attack me/talk down to me?

You need a little more from me? Who are you? (I don?t report or work for you)

Your posts don?t have any backing because at times it?s just based on opinions and not sales data or historical data.

You said I attacked your finances but how could I attack your fiancees when I don?t even know who you are. Also, you go on different tangents and you expect people to follow you. Attack your character? It?s more like my character has been attacked. Like how you always call me captain obvious?

I see a pattern in threads as you previously attacked BTB Belly, Mety, Meccos12, many others and myself.

 

[meccos12]

For example, the Housing Analysis thread you said "opinions do not matter". My response was that they do and that data alone isn't what people come to forums for. Then you went off saying I strawman'd you because I said you said only data matters. That in fact was a strawman because that's not what I said, what I said was that opinions are valuable and data alone isn't enough.

Do you even know what a strawman is?
Did I ever say opinions do not matter?  I dare you to go back and quote exactly what I said.  My exact quote was "In the end, no one should really care about my opinion".  The context of what I really said and what you insinuate are completely different.  This is exactly your problem.  Like Eyephone says, you dont try to engage in discussion.  You try to engage in argument. 

you started this "Market Top" thread with just your opinion and no data.

I have provided plenty of data.  Anyone can simply search this blog the last couple weeks and see.  Have you?

Uh... so should I claim strawman here? Maybe you don't know the history of IHB, TI and myself. This forum came from the IHB forums which were part of the IHB blog. Back then, there were people, even Larry himself, claiming that the data says that to get back to fundamental pricing, Irvine prices have to drop by 50%. Later that was corrected to 40%... but even that didn't happen. I argued back then that I just couldn't see Irvine prices dropping that low. 20% was something I could see... but even then, much of housing stock that I was shopping for, never even dropped that low. So despite what the data said, the Irvine market didn't follow what people were suggesting would happen.

So I mentioned it because it's about history and the non-fundamental behavior of Irvine pricing. If you don't think that's relevant to this discussion, then that's your opinion.

You clearly have no idea what a strawman argument is.
Claims made by OTHER people on a DIFFERENT blog 10 years ago is relevant to me in what way?  You made the claim that people were calling for a crash, you tried to tie me and others into that group.  The most ironic thing is that NO ONE here claimed a crash, it was literally 10 years ago on another blog.  REALLY? 

Yes, I understand that. But at the same time... what value is it then to call "market top" or to say (not you) "a slowdown is coming"? Without other things like "timeline" (which you agree was important) and "quantity" (which I think is important), it makes it tough for a buyer to make a decision for themselves.

DIdnt you literally say in this same post that "opinions do matter" and thats what people come to this blog for?  In the very same post, you claim I stated opinions do not matter (which is completely untrue), yet you blast people for having an opinion?    The hipocrisy is unreal!  BTW the slowdown isnt coming, it is here.

You keep saying I implied it or claimed it but I kept telling you that I questioned if this slowdown isn't seasonal because "SEASONALITY IS THE DEFAULT!!". Seasonality implies itself... just like I don't decide when it's going to be fall, winter or whatever. Go back and look at all the charts for the last 30 years. Even during the last 2 crashes, sales volume and/or prices go up and down with the seasons.

I could literally quote you the times you said this was seasonal or implied it.  Anyone who has read this thread knows it.
Do you realize that seasonality can exist within actual changes in trend?  Just because there was seasonal variability does that negative or minimize actual changes that are occuring?  Also do you understand what YoY changes mean?  This literally eliminates seasonality from data. 



after responding half way through your post, I realize I am the idiot.  Why?  because I keep taking the time to respond to your senseless posts.  Ill stop here.  I lost about an hour of my life ill never get back. 

 

[meccos12]

Meccos12: don?t worry about him. This is not the first time he has pulled this stunt. I kind of feel sorry for him.

See... this is why I refer to you how I do. Because you post zero value to *certain* discussions (not all). What does "feeling sorry for him" have to do with anything being discussed here?

As for "stunt", what are you referring to? Because I actually try to engage in discussions with other posters? Because I challenge people to back up what they post? Because I'm asking questions that some people don't know the answer to?

Despite what meccos thinks of my posts, I actually put some effort into them rather than regurgitating the obvious.

You are not challenging people. Yeah you are engaging people I?m not sure in a good way. People have been putting up backup to support their position. (Actual statistics, articles, graphs) I don?t know what you have for your support.

You put efforts to get into arguments with a lot of people. (I guess you have the right to do that) It?s really funny how you mention my name into other conversations when I?m not part of it. I?m setting the record straight that your continuous attack on me and others are baseless.

Exactly this. 

I guess you haven't read my post yet.

Honestly it hurts my head to respond to nonsense from you.  I have yet seen anything substantial from your posts that is convincing in any way.  until then, id rather waste my time counting the number of grass blades in my backyard. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

For example, the Housing Analysis thread you said "opinions do not matter". My response was that they do and that data alone isn't what people come to forums for. Then you went off saying I strawman'd you because I said you said only data matters. That in fact was a strawman because that's not what I said, what I said was that opinions are valuable and data alone isn't enough.

Do you even know what a strawman is?
Did I ever say opinions do not matter?  I dare you to go back and quote exactly what I said.  My exact quote was "In the end, no one should really care about my opinion".  The context of what I really said and what you insinuate are completely different.  This is exactly your problem.  Like Eyephone says, you dont try to engage in discussion.  You try to engage in argument. 

you started this "Market Top" thread with just your opinion and no data.

I have provided plenty of data.  Anyone can simply search this blog the last couple weeks and see.  Have you?

Uh... so should I claim strawman here? Maybe you don't know the history of IHB, TI and myself. This forum came from the IHB forums which were part of the IHB blog. Back then, there were people, even Larry himself, claiming that the data says that to get back to fundamental pricing, Irvine prices have to drop by 50%. Later that was corrected to 40%... but even that didn't happen. I argued back then that I just couldn't see Irvine prices dropping that low. 20% was something I could see... but even then, much of housing stock that I was shopping for, never even dropped that low. So despite what the data said, the Irvine market didn't follow what people were suggesting would happen.

So I mentioned it because it's about history and the non-fundamental behavior of Irvine pricing. If you don't think that's relevant to this discussion, then that's your opinion.

You clearly have no idea what a strawman argument is.
Claims made by OTHER people on a DIFFERENT blog 10 years ago is relevant to me in what way?  You made the claim that people were calling for a crash, you tried to tie me and others into that group.  The most ironic thing is that NO ONE here claimed a crash, it was literally 10 years ago on another blog.  REALLY? 

Yes, I understand that. But at the same time... what value is it then to call "market top" or to say (not you) "a slowdown is coming"? Without other things like "timeline" (which you agree was important) and "quantity" (which I think is important), it makes it tough for a buyer to make a decision for themselves.

DIdnt you literally say in this same post that "opinions do matter" and thats what people come to this blog for?  In the very same post, you claim I stated opinions do not matter (which is completely untrue), yet you blast people for having an opinion?    The hipocrisy is unreal!  BTW the slowdown isnt coming, it is here.

You keep saying I implied it or claimed it but I kept telling you that I questioned if this slowdown isn't seasonal because "SEASONALITY IS THE DEFAULT!!". Seasonality implies itself... just like I don't decide when it's going to be fall, winter or whatever. Go back and look at all the charts for the last 30 years. Even during the last 2 crashes, sales volume and/or prices go up and down with the seasons.

I could literally quote you the times you said this was seasonal or implied it.  Anyone who has read this thread knows it.
Do you realize that seasonality can exist within actual changes in trend?  Just because there was seasonal variability does that negative or minimize actual changes that are occuring?  Also do you understand what YoY changes mean?  This literally eliminates seasonality from data. 



after responding half way through your post, I realize I am the idiot.  Why?  because I keep taking the time to respond to your senseless posts.  Ill stop here.  I lost about an hour of my life ill never get back. 

Wow. I'll try again:

Where did I tie *you* to the people who claimed the crash 10 years ago? I was just explaining how data back then did not end up supporting the result so the possibility for data now could do that. That in no way claims that you were one of those people.

Again, no intent or tone so it seemed to me so maybe I misunderstood you but when you say:

In the end, no one should really care about my opinion.

What am I supposed to take that as? This was on top of your reasoning as to why you won't answer my questions. The implication of that, to me, is that *your* opinion isn't important (which I don't agree, I think your opinion is important). So to follow that, if no one should really care about your opinion, why do you start a thread with just your opinion? Your data did not come until later... it was not in the first post of this thread (am I wrong about that?).

I did not "blast anyone for having an opinion", I was questioning why, if you think your opinion should not be cared about by anyone, then why would you post it? It just seemed inconsistent to me. Show me where I'm blasting anyone for having an opinion... that's sounds like strawman to me.

How does YOY eliminate seasonality? That is an honest question because the term YOY implies seasonality to me.

And I apologize if my posts seem senseless, I've been trying to explain as best I can. Maybe I'm just not using the right words. You still think I'm intentionally trying to strawman and as I've said, that's not what I'm doing.

As for being argumentative, that takes two people and I feel just the same about you. Instead of trying to see I'm not intending to use strawman, I feel you are going out of your way to apply strawman to everything I'm saying.

I'm trying to work through this miscommunication but you think what I'm saying is just nonsense. So let's leave it at that.

 

[meccos12]

In the Housing Anlaysis thread, another member posted how inventory was high yet prices are still high in places like Seattle.

Bad example to use.  Do you realize what is happening in Seattle right now?  Sales are plummeting, inventory is skyrocketing and they are actually seeing prices fall now.  This is the beginning so who knows how bad it will get there.  Based on the trend, it doesnt seem like it will get better any time soon. 

Just to follow up...
https://www.seattletimes.com/busine...-unprecedented-spike-in-homes-sitting-unsold/

 

[OCAgentGold]

If this helps, you wont see any home being built on ICDC Land going down, they just went up actually. The best you will get is incentives. Remember, Irvine Co. is not in YOU'RE hurry, you can go buy some funky house from one if the nationals in 5 Points, and Irvine Co. will be here after they are gone. Your best buy in the city, for consistent quality, customer service, longevity, and will always be here, California Pacific Homes. Granted they wont win a ton of architectural awards, but they have always been here, and will always be here with one of the best values for the dollar. My business in my other markets, San Diego and Inland Empire, still going very strong.