Doooomed!...
Well, this year Rivian is expected to sell 50,000 cars for $4 billion.
And in 2028, it’s expected to sell 450,000 cars for $35 billion.
But even with almost 500,000 vehicle deliveries – 10 times what it’s expected to hit this year… Five years from now, Rivian is expected to
lose $640 million.
Here’s why…
Last year, Rivian had $1.2 billion in debt. And
by 2028 – a year when it’s still expected to lose $640 million – its cumulative debt is expected to be almost $8 billion.
If Rivian misses a debt payment, it will file for bankruptcy. And shareholders will get wiped out.
In 2026 and 2029, it will either come up with almost $3 billion in cash to repay bond investors… Or it will repay the debt with new stock. That will dilute shareholders and make the stock worth less.
And guess what’s likely coming in 2024 that could derail Rivian’s plans to sell 92,000 cars at an average price of $87,000 each?
A recession that the bond market says is 100% likely by no later than July 31st of next year.
Even if it’s a mild recession, it’s hard to imagine that rich people won’t pull back on $87,000 luxury land yachts when their portfolios tanked in a recessionary bear market.
https://www.widemoatresearch.com/intelligent-income-daily/rivians-biggest-losses-are-coming/