How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...

Watching the 10 year going from 1.36 to 1.47 to ...... ? reminds me of this classic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1fAA378ePY&feature=emb_title
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Cares said:
Buyers and borrowers both are asking me if they should wait to buy a home because housing prices have not "adjusted" to increased interest rates yet.

I think the housing market is still hot and in good shape. Increased purchase interest rates is only going to thin out the field but there was so much competition previously. Inventory is still lacking so I don't really see interest rates having a major impact on prices.
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Yeah, it'll only decrease demand on the margin as people are priced out and others wait for an adjustment to prices for the higher rates.  One issue is that prices can be very sticky on the way down as comps always lag (i.e. we see homes that got into contract a month ago start closing now).
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So, we'll see 8 offers on each listing instead of 12 offers. Lol.
 
That 1.50 10yr T is a fairly tough ceiling to breach. Doesn't mean we won't see a re-test of that pricing, but this reversal was not unexpected. I'm sure the refi heavy call center shops are breathing a sigh of relief this Friday.
 
HMart said:
And Owning.com's homepage rate is up to 3.625% no closing costs 30yr <$822k. Insane
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High balance refinances are going to be right in the mid-3 territory right now. I typically am able to beat Owning on all refinance loans. Last month I was refinancing HB around 2.75% and did a few purchase loans at 2.5%. Today HB refi is around 3.5% no cost.
 
Got this email from Intelliloan today if anyone is interested:

February is almost over, and we know rates will be going higher on Monday March 1st ... but it's not too late!

With Intelliloan, you could still lock in a low fixed rate this weekend at: 1.99% Rate and 1.99% APR* NO POINTS and NO LENDER FEES!

Our rates will have to rise Monday and this offer will no longer be available after Sunday 2/28.

Don't wait another minute, because as we've seen this year, anything can and will happen, including rising rates. Use the code below to access your own personalized rates:

XYZ

DON'T HESITATE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT!

Call (888) 733-4466 or visit www.Intelliloan.com
 
I wonder how they can remotely offer anything near 1.99% with true no points or fees. This is 15 year for those that don't know. There's just no margin available.

Either way, with the stimulus bill passing I'm on the train to believe that rates will rise in Monday as well.
 
It's possible their secondary department bought a block of funds and must parse it all out before the turn of the month. This practice isn't uncommon for larger mortgage bankers.

If it's a real deal, take it. If it's just to make the phones ring, run.
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
It's possible their secondary department bought a block of funds and must parse it all out before the turn of the month. This practice isn't uncommon for larger mortgage bankers.

If it's a real deal, take it. If it's just to make the phones ring, run.
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Yea but there's no one offering anything close. They could offer 2.25 or 2.375 and still be the lowest. More margin for them.
 
You make money on the calls. The more the phone rings the better. It's the borrowers who are told "Well, that 1.x is not available for (insert random excuse here) but we do have a 2.375 that will work." where the real money is.

If they market a potentially deliverable rate, the phones will stay silent relative the the excitement the 1.x loan quotes deliver.

 
GenericIrvineResident said:
ChiKid24 said:
Heads up that rates are coming back to the prior lows. If you missed it before, take another look. I closed with Lenderfi in August on a 30-yr at 2.75% for zero cost (credit to cover closing fees). They ask you to hold the loan for six months but offer a no cost redo if rates are 0.25% or more lower. Im coming up on that so called my loan officer there last week and was able to lock at 2.375%. Loan is just over $710k, so super conforming. Expect to close within a month.
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2.375 for a 710k loan is pretty great. What's the monthly payments look like on that sized loan? $4k?


Was that the option where you pay 10k or so upfront to get that rate? I was given two options 2.5% at little to no closing costs and something like 2.375 if I put up 10k upfront. My loan size is a lot lower than 710 though.
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Sorry for the delayed response. This loan closed and funded last week. 2.375% 30-year on $711k is a payment of $2,763.32. This cost me nothing. The lender provided me with a credit to cover all closing costs and the appraisal was waived. Interestingly, I just looked up the rate on the same lenders online tool today and it shows I would need to pay $16,000+ in points to get the same 2.375% loan. I guess I got lucky with the timing on this one.
 
From a technical perspective, we've reach Death Cross (50 day moving average crosses below 200 day moving average) yesterday. Historically this has only happened a few times in history 2008 and 1929 being 2 significant times. This has signaled recession and bear markets ahead from all previous occurrences. Lower mortgage bonds and higher interest rates ahead.
 
Cares said:
From a technical perspective, we've reach Death Cross (50 day moving average crosses below 200 day moving average) yesterday. Historically this has only happened a few times in history 2008 and 1929 being 2 significant times. This has signaled recession and bear markets ahead from all previous occurrences. Lower mortgage bonds and higher interest rates ahead.
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It's a little different this time around with the Fed full pedal to the metal on QE.  Watch, if 10-year bond rates start creeping towards 2% Powell will start talking about stepping into buying longer term bond rates as well the other countries across the world.  This jawboning will put a bid in the bond market just like when he talked about buying the Corp investment grade ETF and the corp junk bond ETF back in March 2020.
 
10 year treasury is 1.74 this morning and a new ceiling has been raised from 1.60% to 1.94%. Powell's address, or lack thereof, did not help the case either.
 
Cares said:
10 year treasury is 1.74 this morning and a new ceiling has been raised from 1.60% to 1.94%. Powell's address, or lack thereof, did not help the case either.
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The bond market will test the Fed and push towards 2%. The big question is will Powell do operation Twist 2.0 and start buying 10/30 year bonds if we cross 2%.  I'm assuming the pain is continuing in the MBS bond market as well, right?
 
1.5 was the line in the sand. Now 1.75 is a red line. A 2.0 handle is next. Quite a bit of pain in the short run ahead. Once 2.0 is inevitably hit significant intervention is bound to occur.

My .02c
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
1.5 was the line in the sand. Now 1.75 is a red line. A 2.0 handle is next. Quite a bit of pain in the short run ahead. Once 2.0 is inevitably hit significant intervention is bound to occur.

My .02c
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what's the short run timeframe in your opinion?
 
Why is the 10 year treasury yield going up?

I read this off google and it says this means there is less demand for 10 year treasury bonds, so buying them becomes cheaper, and the yield goes up because the bond is cheaper, and the bond is the same amount after 10 years.

But if no one wants the safe 10 year treasury bond, then why would stocks go down?  Example, I see the NASDAQ dropping due to the 10 yr treasury yield rising.
 
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