How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

Delving inside the inflation numbers, many components are clearly accelerating to the upside, including the Fed-touted "supercore" services number that excludes shelter-related prices.

As Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Sløk noted to clients, the year-over-year change in supercore inflation is now running at 5%, while the three-month change has jumped to 8% — not far from its early 2022 peak, which was then a 40-year high.

finance.yahoo.com

Why the Fed risks relearning the painful inflation lessons of the 1970s

The Fed is aiming to avoid a repeat of the double inflation episode that rocked the 1970s and early 1980s.
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com
 
You pick some good cherries... zoom that out and you'll see a more complete picture:

1713228144002.png

See how high inventory was pre-Covid when rates were low? Also... how high are prices now compared to then?

You have to show the whole picture... inventory will have to more than double to get back to "normal" numbers. And do you think prices will get back to pre-2018? Let's see if you get it right this time.
 
We've already won the battle.

@irvinehomeower, Do you see the dark grey bars. They indicate previous financial storms and another dark financial storm is coming soon. (Look at the 10 - 2 year yield chart.)
irvinehomeowner said:
Oooo sweet... (Panda and Liar Loan) vs Inventory... let's see how this plays out.
Click to expand...
monthsuppy.jpg
 
@panda I'd like to remind you that your track record has not been very good regarding predictions. Let's tell the audience what you thought the Dow was going to do since most of the people weren't here back then.

Like I said... no one has the perfect crystal ball... shoot... I was hoping for at least a 20% drop in nice 3CWG homes back in 2008... would not have sold ours had I known that the kind of houses I was looking for would not be discounted much and in good quantity. And the bounce back in 2012-13 was insane... that's historical fact... not conjecture.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
You pick some good cherries... zoom that out and you'll see a more complete picture:

View attachment 9643

See how high inventory was pre-Covid when rates were low? Also... how high are prices now compared to then?

You have to show the whole picture... inventory will have to more than double to get back to "normal" numbers. And do you think prices will get back to pre-2018? Let's see if you get it right this time.
Click to expand...
Rates were only ultra low starting with the grey bar in 2020 and lasting until the end of 2021. Which as you can see is when inventory also got ultra low. Inventory has been recovering at a rapid clip ever since, even with rates tripling from their recent lows.

Going back further, rates were actually relatively high in 2018-19 which is why Irvine suffered so much during that time period. The interesting thing that your chart reveals is that Irvine did even worse than the national market!! "Last to drop and first to recover" was shown to be a delusion held by you, RealtorTrojan, and a few other Kool-aid drinkers.
 
Liar Loan said:
Rates were only ultra low starting with the grey bar in 2020 and lasting until the end of 2021. Which as you can see is when inventory also got ultra low. Inventory has been recovering at a rapid clip ever since, even with rates tripling from their recent lows.

Going back further, rates were actually relatively high in 2018-19 which is why Irvine suffered so much during that time period. The interesting thing that your chart reveals is that Irvine did even worse than the national market!! "Last to drop and first to recover" was shown to be a delusion held by you, RealtorTrojan, and a few other Kool-aid drinkers.
Click to expand...

Who said ultra low? I said low... which 5% and under means (there is a thread somewhere here where 5% was thought to be the lowest rates could get).

How does a chart of inventory prove Irvine "did worse" than the national market? You are so bent on pooping on Irvine you are getting your data mixed up!

Still digging that hole.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Who said ultra low? I said low... which 5% and under means (there is a thread somewhere here where 5% was thought to be the lowest rates could get).

How does a chart of inventory prove Irvine "did worse" than the national market? You are so bent on pooping on Irvine you are getting your data mixed up!

Still digging that hole.
Click to expand...
Rates went from low to ultra low, and so did inventory. Now rates have been increasing for 2+ years and so has inventory. Your chart proves that, which disproves your prior assertion about higher rates suppressing inventory earlier in the thread.

Irvine did worse than the national market in 2018-19 precisely because inventory spiked up while national inventory was slowly declining.

For somebody that follows inventory so closely (yeah right), this should be a completely obvious point that doesn't require further explaining from me.
 
That’s gotta hurt😳😂😂😂

Mortgage rates are now at the highest level of the year, and could still climb​

  • The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage sits around 7.5%, the highest level since mid-November of last year, according to Mortgage News Daily.
  • Even with rates higher, however, mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 5% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index
 
Rapidly increasing rates caused Irvine to decline in 2013-14, 2018-19 and 2022, but I'm sure this time will be different. tic, tic, tic..
 
panda said:
We've already won the battle.

@irvinehomeower, Do you see the dark grey bars. They indicate previous financial storms and another dark financial storm is coming soon. (Look at the 10 - 2 year yield chart.)
Click to expand...
Sigh.

What did you win exactly? How long did prices take to recover in John's Creek after the 2008 crash? How has JC performed from 2010 on?

It's easy to take slices and point how much something dropped but look at the whole picture. Are prices higher now than they were in 2018 when LL kept saying not to buy (even though he bought himself soon after). And when prices "dropped" in Irvine whenever LL claims it did... why wasn't he telling people to buy?

Yeah... LL is the one hoping this time it will be different... because every other time he was wrong.

I think you guys keep hoping that the people who weren't around 15+ years haven't seen all your bad predictions... and that's fine... but to keep coming back and doubling and tripling on bad money... it's hilarious.
 
finance.yahoo.com

The economy might be booming, but housing is in a recession: Top real estate CEO says he’s never seen anything like it in 20 years

Redfin’s Glenn Kelman discusses his business, salary, and all things housing with Fortune.
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com

Interest rates are up, and sales volume has fallen through the floor, as he put it, but home prices haven’t followed. “Some of that is just this artifact of 30-year mortgages,” he said. Everything the Federal Reserve is doing has no real effect on homeowners, apart from keeping them where they are. “It actually has the perverse effect of keeping home prices high,” Kelman explained.
Click to expand...
 
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