Housing Analysis

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irvinehomeowner said:
meccos12 said:
irvinehomeowner said:
meccos seems to be hedging... he says he doesn't want to give advice but extols the advice of others that aligns with his data/facts. So if it goes the wrong way, he could always say he didn't give that advice. Supporting someone who says to wait is pretty much saying he feels the same way... he should just admit it. Why even bring up eyephone unless he is trying to validate his own position... that's a roundabout self-attaboy.
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It is no secret what my thoughts are on housing as I have been pretty explicit in these posts.  In fact Im sure you recall I started a thread about 4 month ago calling for a market top.  Does anyone who read these threads doubt that Eyephone and I think alike about housing?  If the markets goes the other way, the fact that I didnt "give advice" wont allow me to hide behind all the things I have posted contrary to what you say.  You are the only one to pick apart the minutia to make a weak defense.  However lets keep in mind the fact that one can buy 13.5% more house today compared to 6 months ago, even moreso if you consider inflation. 


I give props to Eyephone because like me, he saw a slowing market at a time in which very few did, but moreso because he had the guts to freely post advice about buying a house.  I, on the other hand, did not feel it was my place to tell people whether they should buy or not.  I have said this before and I am just simply repeating myself again.  I am not sure why this is an issue for you especially since you tout that people should make a decision on their own personal experience.  People can easily see the things I have posted and formulate their own decisions to buy or not.  They dont need me to tell them. 

This makes you look like look like a sore loser.  Give credit where credit is due.  You were wrong.  He was right.
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Sure, if that makes you feel better.

What was I wrong about specifically? I didn't make any calls. I didn't predict anything. All I asked was if the slowdown was seasonal and if eyephone is telling people to wait, for how long and for what percentage savings (which neither of you answered). Oh... and I also gave reasons why people shouldn't wait if they can't.

So now, you guys are saying "I told you so!"... based on interest rate drops? Sounds like a revisionist winner.

Where is this 13.5% number coming from? Interest rate drop or housing price drop? Is that for all housing or just some specific houses posted above?

If you're going to start posting number as "facts", please qualify and prove them.

And are you sure you are not eyephone's burner account?
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Hey I TOLD YOU SO!!! I told you to sell to make MAXROI last year!!! HAHAHHAA.



 
eyephone said:
Mety said:
eyephone said:
Burner account?
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Who's burner?
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I think IH0 thinks or is joking around that meccos12 is my second account.
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I was accused of being BTB/YF or even his wife couple times.

Well, I myself have accused many other TI members of being YF also so I can't really complain.

I still think that B_T_B account was made by IHO.  :D



 
OC housing update summary:

1.  Inventory up 62% YoY.  Highest levels since 2012.
2.  Demand in last 30 days down 21% YoY.  Lowest since 2008.
3.  Expected market time at 152 days.  Highest since 2011.

There is a chart showing OC market time and another showing individual cities including Irvine.
I also included two excerpts from Steve Thomas, the author of Reports on Housing, regarding state of housing. 
 

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National Association of Realtors: Existing-Home Sales See 6.4 Percent Drop in December
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-see-64-percent-drop-in-december

Total existing-home sales,https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales,completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 6.4 percent from November to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.99 million in December. Sales are now down 10.3 percent from a year ago (5.56 million in December 2017).
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Leaf said:
National Association of Realtors: Existing-Home Sales See 6.4 Percent Drop in December
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-see-64-percent-drop-in-december

Total existing-home sales,https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales,completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 6.4 percent from November to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.99 million in December. Sales are now down 10.3 percent from a year ago (5.56 million in December 2017).
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Thanks for the update.
 
I was talking to some realestate investors the other day and I told them prices wouldn't start heading north until 2023.  You can expect flat to declining prices for the next 5 years.
So if 2018 is the peak, 5 years later 2023 will begin the upswing again.

I base my forecasting on historical data.
2006 top to decline until 2013 upswing.  7 years. 

So for the next 5 years we should be in a flat to declining market.
However, We probably won't see 20% drops.  I think 10% off of 2018 highs will be it.
Perhaps 20% drops in outliers, but not average.
 
Zillow says Irvine market is only "Cool." I thought it said "Very Hot" only couple weeks ago. Should we be worried?

 
zubs said:
I was talking to some realestate investors the other day and I told them prices wouldn't start heading north until 2023.  You can expect flat to declining prices for the next 5 years.
So if 2018 is the peak, 5 years later 2023 will begin the upswing again.

I base my forecasting on historical data.
2006 top to decline until 2013 upswing.  7 years. 

So for the next 5 years we should be in a flat to declining market.
However, We probably won't see 20% drops.  I think 10% off of 2018 highs will be it.
Perhaps 20% drops in outliers, but not average.
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After 7 years, SLAT Cap is back to how it was so there would be more tax benefits again by owning then.



 
First time in 6+ years I've seen active Irvine properties in the MLS hit the 700 mark so early in the year. :sigh: Too many people coming on the market, especially all this new/newer construction from resellers and homebuilders.
Disclaimer: I'm a homeowner in Irvine, obviously I'm pulling for Irvine.  But I don't like seeing this high of inventory so early in the year.
Lets hope Buyers show up.  Gonna be an interesting year.
 
I can't make any determinations until summer rolls around.

Although the data seems to say this time is different, predictions based on data has not always been right... especially when it comes to Irvine.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Although the data seems to say this time is different, predictions based on data has not always been right... especially when it comes to Irvine.
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No.  This is the best quote of all time.
 
Seems like meccos12 still wants to discuss things.

I thought I have no credibility so why ask me to expound? 

Just read the thread and maybe you will get it the second time around.
 
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